Phoenix XLVIII: Of Mice and Lieberman

[CasualFan]

Every day that goes by the NHL backs themselves further into a corner. If they don't do something soon...

Unless they've already done something and merely withheld publicly announcing it.

 

[viper0220]

Unless they've already done something and merely withheld publicly announcing it.

If that is the case, imagne if the information was leaked.

 

[Whileee]

The incremental sales tax revenue is the COG's finance department's number, and is based on FY2011 sales tax revenues. It most certainly won't be $23 million per year for 20 years due to inflation and economic growth.

I believe the Hocking number is the $6.5 million per year. Could be wrong. I frankly didn't have time to look at the rest of the back of the envelope analysis.

I can save you the time. Analyze any new lease proposal being brought before city council and the revenue numbers will always add up to be just a bit more than the subsidies being requested from the City of Glendale. It's the "Hocking theorem".

 

[aj8000]

It's great that Jamison was involved in making the Sharks the success they are today. However, citing that success as proof positive that the same result is likely to occur in Phoenix is incredibly naive.

Like the stock market. Past performance is not related to future results; therefore, I would agree, there is no Guarantee Jamison will be able to turn the team around. Considering, I do believe this is spin and there is no deal to be made in Glendale, he will not have a chance to prove us right or wrong.

The only hope Yotes fans have at the moment would be Glendale to buy another year. I think that is unlikely, and if the Yotes continue the post season for a while, Glendale may get out with only paying the 20 million.

 

[Killion]

1) So basically what you're saying is that the NHL didn't/couldn't give a **** about what happened with that franchise for the past 2 years. They just want to sell it to someone who does.

2) Here's what I'm saying. Gary Bettman has been in the spotlight for 16 years with that franchise's troubles. His bosses must have looked at him to say, ''Hey buddy. You want to do something with that? because seriously, it's really starting to be a pain in the ass''

3) It was in their best interest to handle that **** and quick. They didn't, because you say it wasn't their 'mandate'?. Come on man. No. They didn't want to. There's a reason for that. it wasn't worth it.

4) No way they are going to sell a franchise just to know they will be on welfare for years to come. In my opinion, i'm positive they'd rather sell it to someone and somewhere they know there will be no problems. Like they did with the thrash to WPG. It's now been proven that it was one wise choice.

1) Correct.

2) Not the other 29 owners problem. He was hired in 94 with 3 mandates; 1) Bring in cost certainty with a Cap; 2) Over-see pre-existing Expansion Plans; 3) Secure a national broadcasting contract.

3) It isnt the leagues mandate to Babysit intransigent ownership groups. Once these guys are approved, take the keys, its theirs to do with as they wish. The clubs dont come with instructions. You drive it into the ditch thats your problem. The NHL only gets involved when they get a 911 call, throw money at the problem as required, or if a full-on crash with body parts all over the road, pull out the putty knives and start scraping up the pieces. Bag it, tag it, ship it whomevers willing to pay the freight. Completely re-active as opposed to being pro-active.

4) What they "want" and what they "do" are two entirely different things. Had Alexander in Houston, one of the groups in Seattle or wherever else in a "major" market been on the line with an offer for the Thrashers (or the Coyotes) they'd have been gone yesterday. The NHL really isnt interested in smaller "boutique" style markets like a Winnipeg or QC however, for the sake of expediency (and yes, moderate success, a guarantee that its highly un-likely those spots will ever wind up being welfare recipients) with no other options nor even leverage (with the exception of that which they artificially create) their hand is forced.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

There's a projected 0.8% sales tax increase that has been nearly approved, and by the numbers given, what has been projected is supposed to bring the city $23 million back per fiscal year.

The $6.5 million is the number the city district manager Colson gave the council based on a projected Coyotes profit per year.

Not $23 million per fiscal year... $23 million in the first fiscal year. You don't honestly believe that taxable sales are going to remain constant for the next 20 years, do you?

Pretty certain Colson's number is Hocking's. Regardless, I wouldn't put much stock in a number produced by either.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

I can save you the time. Analyze any new lease proposal being brought before city council and the revenue numbers will always add up to be just a bit more than the subsidies being requested from the City of Glendale. It's the "Hocking theorem".

zigactly

 

[Cryogenic Man]

1) Correct.

2) Not the other 29 owners problem. He was hired in 94 with 3 mandates; 1) Bring in cost certainty with a Cap; 2) Over-see pre-existing Expansion Plans; 3) Secure a national broadcasting contract.

But it is the other 29 owners problem, as it's their money that's used to keep teams on welfare including the Coyotes. If someone is using my money, you better damn well believe I'd be interested in knowing where it's going and for what!

3) It isnt the leagues mandate to Babysit intransigent ownership groups. Once these guys are approved, take the keys, its theirs to do with as they wish. The clubs dont come with instructions. You drive it into the ditch thats your problem. The NHL only gets involved when they get a 911 call, throw money at the problem as required, or if a full-on crash with body parts all over the road, pull out the putty knives and start scraping up the pieces. Bag it, tag it, ship it whomevers willing to pay the freight. Completely re-active as opposed to being pro-active.

Sounds about right. Although the NHL is a private members club. They do have rules just like any good secret society that's public. It also sounds like you are speaking about the many re-located franchises from the past and of course, the Coyotes.

4) What they "want" and what they "do" are two entirely different things. Had Alexander in Houston, one of the groups in Seattle or wherever else in a "major" market been on the line with an offer for the Thrashers (or the Coyotes) they'd have been gone yesterday. The NHL really isnt interested in smaller "boutique" style markets like a Winnipeg or QC however, for the sake of expediency (and yes, moderate success, a guarantee that its highly un-likely those spots will ever wind up being welfare recipients) with no other options nor even leverage (with the exception of that which they artificially create) their hand is forced.

It's too bad that there aren't any other US cities or owners that want NHL franchises. I wonder why that is?

Forced? perhaps, smart? definitely. (Economists have force-casted a north american union with one currency for the future. US-CDN Dollar near parity proves that.) the NHL knows what they are doing going economically back into Canada. Markham will be another one.

 

[Cryogenic Man]

Not $23 million per fiscal year... $23 million in the first fiscal year. You don't honestly believe that taxable sales are going to remain constant for the next 20 years, do you?

Pretty certain Colson's number is Hocking's. Regardless, I wouldn't put much stock in a number produced by either.

No, maybe not 20 years, but for at least 8-10. When was the last time a sales tax increase happened in Glendale? Cause at first glance I couldn't find the info.

Ok so If you agree that Hockings numbers are to make everything look wrapped up in Gold, then the actual truth in comparison to my analysis is even more ****ed up then I imagined it. Then there definitely is even a much more serious problem there than I thought.

 

[cbcwpg]

I can save you the time. Analyze any new lease proposal being brought before city council and the revenue numbers will always add up to be just a bit more than the subsidies being requested from the City of Glendale. It's the "Hocking theorem".

I have always found it funny how that works out. Every time the CoG needs some "on paper" numbers to back up whatever they are trying to do, Mr. Beasley calls up Studies-R-Us and poof, a document appears that backs it up to the penny, with a little positive buffer built in.

 

[JMT21]

Jamison has been with the Sharks/SVSE since 1993. He was promoted to President/CEO of SVSE in 1996. He became part owner in 2001 when SJSEE (the Sharks current ownership group) bought the Sharks from the Gunds in 2001. There was never really a case of GJ "taking over" the Sharks.


They were making money. The Sharks did not report losses on the team until ~2002, when they started becoming a top 10 payroll team - and even then they were always precise that the Sharks lost money but were conveniently silent on whether SVSE (the parent organization which owns the Sharks and operates the arena) was profitable (including GJ giving me a sheepish grin when I explicitly asked him about it at a STH breakfast).


The Sharks have pretty much sold out (97-100%) every year, except for a dip in '03-'04 (after a complete debacle in '02-'03) and '05-'06 (after the lockout).


Pretty much the same as it is now - capped at the equivalent of ~14K full season STHs with waiting lists.


Nope - zero, nada, zilch - other than contributing to captal improvements to the city owned arena.


They were turning profits before he did, and continued to after - when you look at SVSE.


All he really did in San Jose was to continue to shepherd a very successful team and arena management organization - with a diversified set of related outside business interests. He has experience bringing together an large outside set of investors (he was instrumental in pulling together the current group of investors), becoming the public face of that group, and running a successful team/arena organization in that environment.

Thanks for this

So GJ took a fairly successful franchise which was profitable with little to no financial help from local government and made it as successful or even more so during his tenure with the Sharks. He started off with large ST base and kept it static.

The complete opposite of his task if he assumes ownership with the Yotes. As a said.. it will be a very tough mountain to climb.

 

[JMT21]

No, maybe not 20 years, but for at least 8-10. When was the last time a sales tax increase happened in Glendale? Cause at first glance I couldn't find the info.

Ok so If you agree that Hockings numbers are to make everything look wrapped up in Gold, then the actual truth in comparison to my analysis is even more ****ed up then I imagined it. Then there definitely is even a much more serious problem there than I thought.

Sometimes sales tax projections work out... other times the taxpayer gets pissed off and spends less disposable income making some projections irrelevant. Just saying.

 

[Killion]

But it is the other 29 owners problem, as it's their money that's used to keep teams on welfare including the Coyotes. If someone is using my money, you better damn well believe I'd be interested in knowing where it's going and for what!

...yet we hear nothing from the Rangers, MLSE, San Jose, LA, Philly or Boston etc complaining about having to make their annual revenue sharing payments so who really knows?. Its just the price of doing business, membership dues. Just pay it & forget about it. The leagues bought the Coyotes & has been running it via a Line of Credit. No cash calls to the owners. Bettman promised them it wouldnt cost them anything, to date it hasnt (though Im sure the Coyotes have received revenue sharing proceeds). The league, the owners wont take a hit regardless of whether or not the team is sold locally or for relo. At least what, 8, 12, 14 teams are recipients of revenue sharing payments?. Again, we dont really know, but even if its say 6 or 8, I cant see Peddie of MLSE or Molsons, Jacobs or anyone else getting all hot n' bothered about it. Gary's problemo. He'll deal with it, the same way he dealt with Oren Koules & Len Barrie if necessary, in this case "get lucky" like he did with Vinik in Jamison or simply sell for relo.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

I have always found it funny how that works out. Every time the CoG needs some "on paper" numbers to back up whatever they are trying to do, Mr. Beasley calls up Studies-R-Us and poof, a document appears that backs it up to the penny, with a little positive buffer built in.

The funny thing is that while Hocking's parking analysis showed that the PV of revenues equaled nearly exactly $100 million, it still would have been cashflow negative for several years.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

I'm just more amazed at how quickly these topics go by.

As soon as the situation in Glendale is finally finalized, be it a long-term commitment to staying in the desert or moving to Quebec City or even elsewhere, the number of posts on this board will probably be cut in half.

 

[Killion]

Othmar Ammann
TL Hocking Fan

Ya'll reckon TL mistook Omar Khayyams
theorems on mathematics for the Rubaiyat?...

 

[Cryogenic Man]

...yet we hear nothing from the Rangers, MLSE, San Jose, LA, Philly or Boston etc complaining about having to make their annual revenue sharing payments so who really knows?. Its just the price of doing business, membership dues. Just pay it & forget about it. The leagues bought the Coyotes & has been running it via a Line of Credit. No cash calls to the owners. Bettman promised them it wouldnt cost them anything, to date it hasnt (though Im sure the Coyotes have received revenue sharing proceeds). The league, the owners wont take a hit regardless of whether or not the team is sold locally or for relo. At least what, 8, 12, 14 teams are recipients of revenue sharing payments?. Again, we dont really know, but even if its say 6 or 8, I cant see Peddie of MLSE or Molsons, Jacobs or anyone else getting all hot n' bothered about it. Gary's problemo. He'll deal with it, the same way he dealt with Oren Koules & Len Barrie if necessary, in this case "get lucky" like he did with Vinik in Jamison or simply sell for relo.

Youre right, we don't know. Although I wouldn't simply dismiss it as gary's problemo. The other side to your coin would be that they do care about increasing their profits and make the league healthier financially.

I know i would. Whether I'm the owner of Comcast or Thomson Reuteurs I didn't get to where I am without care of where my money goes and especially if I could make more, or hold on to more of it, if I could.

 

[Killion]

Youre right, we don't know. Although I wouldn't simply dismiss it as gary's problemo. The other side to your coin would be that they do care about increasing their profits and make the league healthier financially.

... but of course, and under GB's astute leadership, why, league wide revenues have gone from $400M in 94 to $3Billion+. And you have the temerity to question the decisions made by the National Hockey Leagues BOG's & leadership?. Where have you been for the past 18yrs?. Asleep?. Projected revenues for next season forecast an increase of somewhere around 2.9%. More, much more when they force the players to retreat from 57-49% of their share or face expulsion, cards pulled, union busted. Yet here you are worried about a few million going to clubs in need? As the leagues own in-house Financial Analyst Chauncey Gardener once said, "As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well. In the Garden".

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Othmar Ammann
TL Hocking Fan

Ya'll reckon TL mistook Omar Khayyams
theorems on mathematics for the Rubaiyat?...

Hocking is undoubtedly my favourite part of the whole saga.

 

[Killion]

Hocking is undoubtedly my favourite part of the whole saga.

... yep. Good ol' TL. An itinerant Municipal Finance Consultant traveling the backroads of America with his pet bean counting Chimpanzee in a red, white & blue Kenworth K-100 cab-over semi. Seems Ive heard or seen somethin about this guy somewhere else besides Glendale & Prescott Valley.

 

[kdb209]

C&P from the 'Yotes board ownership thread:

Not sure if this was brought up yet but the City of Glendale has created a page on their website for Coyotes fans to "Show Your Support" for keeping the team.

On the page it states:

The majority of the Glendale City Council has given staff direction to move forward with the goal of keeping the Coyotes in Glendale. The formal vote on this matter will take place as part of the upcoming budget adoption in June. To show your support and provide feedback, please take advantage of the following opportunities.

They go on to list the May 8th meeting as one of the "following opportunities"(which has been the date people are speculating a deal could be voted on)

I know this is pure speculation but seems very interesting.

http://glendaleaz.gov/news/CoyotesInfo.cfm

 

[Killion]

C&P from the 'Yotes board ownership thread:

...well thats certainly an interesting development. I tried clicking the "send us your comments" icon however it appears to be setup to block out of state IP addresses. Heck, wasnt gonna say nothin, just wanted to read. And if I was going to post, Id tell them to go for it... that Facebook page is all team stuff.

 

[Mungman]

Sometimes sales tax projections work out... other times the taxpayer gets pissed off and spends less disposable income making some projections irrelevant. Just saying.

Yah, or in this case just cross the imaginary line into the next municipality to spend their dough. Would be somewhat interesting to know the neighboring municipalities rates.

 

[objectiveposter]

June 8th?? and what if Jamison doesnt have the financing? isnt that too late to move the team? nhl will accept a 17 mill arena management fee? none of this makes any sense.... and why bother drumming up fan support when 4 of the 7 council members are already in favor? the next month is going to be very interesting... I have no idea what is going to happen.... at least last year we kinda knew glendale was going to fork over another 25 mill and the thrashers would be the ones moving to Winnipeg..... this year I have no clue anymore because these dates are so strange

 

[RAgIn]

Friedman:

29. The Phoenix Coyotes will survive in Arizona if the "management fee" to run the arena gets through Glendale City Council and The Goldwater Institute. If not, there might be five guys who know what will happen: Gary Bettman, Bill Daly, John Collins and the NHL's top two financial guys, Craig Harnett and Joseph DeSousa. Cassie Campbell-Pascall mentioned the word "fold" in her blog this week. Nothing would surprise me here.

Interesting. No mention of a move to Quebec City.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opinion/2012/05/sometime-this-summer-when-alexander.html