Phoenix LXXVIII: Know When To Hold 'Em, Know When To Fold 'Em

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cbcwpg

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May 18, 2010
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Well, at least the meetings on Tuesday should be short and sweet.

Bettman: So where's my $15M / yr?

CoG: Don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out. Oh, and by the way, the CoG has a city ordinance that allows us to impose a $50M fee on anyone moving a business out of Glendale. Leave your payment with the cashier.... :)
 

viper0220

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Oct 10, 2008
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The comments in the DM release along with recent news of a deal with Gosbee, lead me to believe a deal gets worked out, and they stay in Glendale. Remember, there are only 30 members in the owners club, if you want to be one, pony up....The public (most of the posts on this topic) is usually wrong...


The problem with that is that this team loses somewhere between $30-$35 Million a season, I don't know about you cobra but I would not want to own a franchise that loses that much money. I don't know any of Gosbee, Pastor, Le Blanc or Jamisons financial status but that is a lot to be lose.
 

viper0220

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Oct 10, 2008
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The problem with that is that this team loses somewhere between $30-$35 Million a season, I don't know about you cobra but I would not want to own a franchise that loses that much money. I don't know any of Gosbee, Pastor, Le Blanc or Jamisons financial status but that is a lot to be lose.


But we will see, the thing is with the NHL is that they don't always do what is good for the leauge, so I would not be surpised by anything.
 

Wingsfan2965*

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Dec 30, 2011
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Can I make a proposal?

Phoenix LXXIX: Jenga

The outcome is already determined, it's just a matter of how many blocks you have to remove until it all comes crashing down.

Jenga.gif
 

grindline

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Mar 29, 2013
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Can I make a proposal?

Phoenix LXXIX: Jenga

The outcome is already determined, it's just a matter of how many blocks you have to remove until it all comes crashing down.

Jenga.gif

Phoenix LXXIX: (12 million) Buck-aroo

would be my attempt to steal a genius concept devised by Wingsfan., though I am taking a risk that the game is well known on both sides of the Atlantic and is not just some bizarre English cultural reference that nobody gets.

43462.jpg
 

JetFan4Ever

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May 23, 2010
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Ego is a funny thing. 30 members is a pretty elite club. Does Gosbee have the cash to endure some losses to be part of that club?

Who knows with a good arena mgt team and 6 mil from COG he might be able to make money on that part.

Solid ownership and a good team might also lessen the blow.

Any chance he goes for it just to be part of the club?
 

xzchief

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May 7, 2013
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Ego is a funny thing. 30 members is a pretty elite club. Does Gosbee have the cash to endure some losses to be part of that club?

Who knows with a good arena mgt team and 6 mil from COG he might be able to make money on that part.

Solid ownership and a good team might also lessen the blow.

Any chance he goes for it just to be part of the club?

No. If Gosbee wants an NHL team, he should wait for better opportunities. Let other teams become available in a year or two. Why deal with the mess that is the Phoenix Coyotes, especially since he's not from Phoenix? He surely knows some potential investments are better than others.
 

Whileee

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May 29, 2010
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I cant wait to see the platform of any council member who supports going over AMF $6MM. Even wonderlic Manny Martinez understands the fiscal realities the city is facing.

Yes, this should get interesting now, with city council facing a structural deficit despite substantial cuts to fire/police and other services, and already balking at further cuts. They have an RFP on the streets to manage the arena and have determined that $6 million is the actual cost of managing the arena. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of the council members will be keen to add millions to the AMF for the Coyotes, further increasing the deficit, pouring fuel on the fire of bond rating agencies' increasing concern, and necessitating still further cuts. Has Hocking left the building, or is he still receiving his retainer from the COG? They might need him to whip up one of his spreadsheets to convince reluctant council members to go for it. Sadly, he hasn't been able to convince Moody's, etc.
 

MOGlLNY

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Jan 5, 2008
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Could Gosbee be doing this just to get in good graces with the NHL? So for when other teams become available he could possibly have first dibs?
 

JimAnchower

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Dec 8, 2012
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Phoenix LXXIX: Fifteen (million) ways to leave Glendale



Just get some ill will, Bill
Hit the them with a barrel, Daryl
Put them in debt, Bett(man)
Just listen to me
Threaten with a bat, Matt
You don't need to discuss much
Just jump in a gorge, George
And set yourself free.
 

rt

The Kinder, Gentler Version
May 13, 2004
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So by my count we've got about three potential outcomes that should become pretty clear within the next couple of weeks at the most?

1. Gosbee and Glendale agree on a number that doesn't bring Goldwater out of hiding and the coyotes stay put for the foreseeable future.

2. They don't. NHL keeps the team in Glendale another year anyway.

3. They don't and the NHL sells the team to Quebec.
 

viper0220

Registered User
Oct 10, 2008
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So by my count we've got about three potential outcomes that should become pretty clear within the next couple of weeks at the most?

1. Gosbee and Glendale agree on a number that doesn't bring Goldwater out of hiding and the coyotes stay put for the foreseeable future.

2. They don't. NHL keeps the team in Glendale another year anyway.

3. They don't and the NHL sells the team to Quebec.



Three of the many possablities
 

manisback121

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Feb 28, 2008
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... :laugh: ya, it should be. Im guessin here, but Id imagine Gary Bettman's strategy is to circumvent & render moot, eliminate the need to open up those envelopes containing the bids altogether. Convince Glendale to send them all back still sealed: "silly RFP". None the wiser.... Then, once again over-promising and never delivering on an actual owner. His left arm propping up Le Blanc, his right Gosbee, a master of ventriloquism speaking outta both sides of his mouth while drinking water, lips not moving. Yes, Id pay folding money to be privy to that show. That episode with the Jamison press conference singular, imagine it with not one but two Dummies? Like Edgar Bergen with twinned Charlie McCarthy's. Ed Sullivan Show. Daly doing his Topo Gigio impressions.

But now Pandora's box has been opened and GWI can still get on the horn to find some aggrieved firm to come up with their numbers and discuss that even with overhead it still costs this much. And you're going to tell me a witness from a Livenation or some other outfit would not be qualified or ultra persuasive.

The city has to think of these evidentiary issues strongly before they jack up a tab.

Even so, if they perhaps were an aggrieved bidder who put in and obviously can be extremely persuasive for artists and events, GWI can cause serious problems... add in if the judge is a resident and potentially sympathetic...this could get nasty.

Even a non-bidder who could march in as an expert.

This could be like a rest stop named the crap bar for the **** show this will be
 

manisback121

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Feb 28, 2008
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So by my count we've got about three potential outcomes that should become pretty clear within the next couple of weeks at the most?

1. Gosbee and Glendale agree on a number that doesn't bring Goldwater out of hiding and the coyotes stay put for the foreseeable future.

2. They don't. NHL keeps the team in Glendale another year anyway.

3. They don't and the NHL sells the team to Quebec.

But an aggrieved bidder with the cash could also step in and fight this as well to my statement above. Whatever the City forks over better not materially deviate from the highest bids...not to mention who is a bidder
 

Llama19

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Jan 19, 2013
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Can I make a proposal?

Phoenix LXXIX: Jenga

The outcome is already determined, it's just a matter of how many blocks you have to remove until it all comes crashing down.

Phoenix LXXIX: Coyotes Property Wars

And, use any one of these local Phoenix guys... :sarcasm:

pw-full-talent-promo.jpg


I'm sure they could flip this 'locally' for a profit, or not... :naughty:

J'ai un 2-7 (dépareillé), dois-je plier et prendre une bière?
 

Whileee

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May 29, 2010
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But now Pandora's box has been opened and GWI can still get on the horn to find some aggrieved firm to come up with their numbers and discuss that even with overhead it still costs this much. And you're going to tell me a witness from a Livenation or some other outfit would not be qualified or ultra persuasive.

The city has to think of these evidentiary issues strongly before they jack up a tab.

Even so, if they perhaps were an aggrieved bidder who put in and obviously can be extremely persuasive for artists and events, GWI can cause serious problems... add in if the judge is a resident and potentially sympathetic...this could get nasty.

Even a non-bidder who could march in as an expert.

This could be like a rest stop named the crap bar for the **** show this will be

I don't think that a bidder for the arena management RFP will be all that relevant. The language of the RFP makes it very clear that it can be amended, cancelled, etc. a the discretion of the COG. An agreement with the Coyotes is qualitatively (and quantitatively) different from an arena management deal without the Coyotes - Apples and Oranges.

However, I think that the clear details about the actual cost of managing the arena will make it difficult to negotiate an AMF much above $6 million without being in clear violation of the gift clause. Perhaps the GWI has no more interest in this, but if anything their position would be stronger than ever, particularly with the dire financial situation of the COG.

Beyond that, there will be some real losers in the budget process if the COG carves out several more millions annually to pay the AMF for the Coyotes. It seems highly likely that any lease would face another petition to put it to a referendum, and it seems possible that it won't be a single old man taking this on.

Since either a credible legal challenge or the prospect of a petition would cast doubt on the lease and likely create an untenable delay, I can see the NHL requiring the following commitments from the COG.

1) A lease agreement with a generous AMF, as has been noted in several media reports.
2) Approval of the lease as an Emergency Ordinance, which would require 5/7 votes from city council. This would be to deal with the potential uncertainty/delay that a petition would have created.
3) Some assurance from the GWI that they'll leave this alone.

Perhaps they would forego #3, but I am not so sure that the COG wants to tangle with the GWI, if only for the political ramifications of having to publicly defend a deal while dealing with a mess of a budget and substantial service cuts.

I think that this has been exactly the NHL's end game since Jamison failed. Leaving this until this late was "brinksmanship", to create a sense of urgency in negotiations, and so that any unpleasant alternatives (such as relocation) can happen quickly. It helps that it is the off-season, and that the Coyotes weren't nearly as much of a story in a shortened and less successful season.

I still think that things might work out in Glendale, assuming that city council members just won't be able to deliver the final blow to the Coyotes. The NHL is certainly hoping for that. If they don't agree to the NHL's terms, it will be interesting to see how various factions assess blame. I would put it largely on the shoulders of Bettman and the NHL, who will have taken the COG for a harrowing ride. It's been shameful every step of the way.
 

CasualFan

Tortious Beadicus
Nov 27, 2009
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Bay Area, CA
So by my count we've got about three potential outcomes that should become pretty clear within the next couple of weeks at the most?

1. Gosbee and Glendale agree on a number that doesn't bring Goldwater out of hiding and the coyotes stay put for the foreseeable future.

2. They don't. NHL keeps the team in Glendale another year anyway.

3. They don't and the NHL sells the team to Quebec.


Sounds about right. I would suggest that the emergency service unions are a more immediate concern than Goldwater Institute. The Council that couldn't shake loose $850k to keep fire stations open is going to exceed $6MM AMF to subsidize hockey operations? Politicians who aspire to long careers generally tread lightly around big labor. Mayor Weiers very much appears to be a politician who aspires a long career.
 

Killion

Registered User
Feb 19, 2010
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Phoenix LXXIX: Fifteen (million) ways to leave Glendale

Just get some ill will, Bill
Hit the them with a barrel, Daryl
Put them in debt, Bett(man)
Just listen to me
Threaten with a bat, Matt
You don't need to discuss much
Just jump in a gorge, George
And set yourself free.

.... :laugh: well done JA.

So by my count we've got about three potential outcomes that should become pretty clear within the next couple of weeks at the most?

I dont think were talking "weeks" here rt, absolutely "within days". This goes past May 31st, NHL still in a holding pattern, serious problem. Remember, as discussed earlier, they claimed in BK Court cant move a team post May 31, logistically impossible. Theyve just gotta be cognizant of that, not to mention the proverbial you know whats gonna hit when those RFP bids are unsealed. No, they got to act & act now, which is why were seeing this Power Play taking place next week, akin to being down by a goal, 2 minutes remaining on the clock, Game 7, all or nothing, pull the goalie.

But an aggrieved bidder with the cash could also step in and fight this as well to my statement above. Whatever the City forks over better not materially deviate from the highest bids...not to mention who is a bidder...

Ya, all excellent points, good post mib. Pandora's box has indeed been opened. Happened the minute Sherwood recommended the COG go for the RFP, Mayor & Council agreed, process underway. NHL's lost its leverage, though XX, a regular poster here seems to think the City's lost its leverage. Not quite seeing how that might be....
 

CasualFan

Tortious Beadicus
Nov 27, 2009
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0
Bay Area, CA
I would put it largely on the shoulders of Bettman and the NHL, who will have taken the COG for a harrowing ride. It's been shameful every step of the way.

It doesn't appear that the NHL took anyone for a ride. The league presented the city with an absurd subsidy demand that could have easily been dismissed. The members of the city council took the budget for a harrowing ride even though the result was fully predictable by anyone with even an elementary understanding of economics.
 

CasualFan

Tortious Beadicus
Nov 27, 2009
3,215
0
Bay Area, CA
PS: Would like to state that I have very much enjoyed CasualFan's take on this matter since day one; that specific poster alone makes this forum an intriguing and quite informative read.

Thanks. I've learned quite a lot from the time I've spent here at BOH - hopefully including how not to come across as a condescending jerk all the time. Anyway, it's been very enjoyable to be part of this community.
 

Whileee

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May 29, 2010
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It doesn't appear that the NHL took anyone for a ride. The league presented the city with an absurd subsidy demand that could have easily been dismissed. The members of the city council took the budget for a harrowing ride even though the result was fully predictable by anyone with even an elementary understanding of economics.

Perhaps, but I think they also misled them with respect to the prospects of finding a new owner. The $25 million was sold as an "insurance policy", assuming that there was a bona fide ownership prospect. I found it quite amusing that the COG had to find out for themselves that the IEH group didn't have the financial wherewithal to purchase the team, some time after the NHL had entered into a letter of agreement with them for a Coyotes sale.

I think that the NHL has persistently misled the COG about the strength of the market for purchasing the team.

But you're right; the COG has been deliberately credulous and has insisted on believing the fantastic financial projections offered by Hocking and others. They were also derelict in their due diligence to investigate the actual financial realities of the operation of the Jobing.com. There is plenty of blame to go around, but the COG has certainly been the party most motivated and responsible for keeping the Coyotes in Glendale this long. The NHL's commitment has gone about as deep as a Bettman media scrum.
 

Donwood

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Mar 13, 2011
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