Phoenix LVIII; Will jobbing get jobbed?

[cutchemist42]

I don't disagree that the franchise has had a checkered history. I am also not among those that think that it can't work in that market.

My analysis has been that the NHL and the various ownership candidates thus far have victimized the City of Glendale and Coyotes fans. This is a special situation where Glendale has actually gone above and beyond what could be reasonably expected, and have actually saved the NHL's bacon on this debacle. In return, the NHL and ownership candidates have done nothing that shows any confidence in the market, or even any grateful concessions to get a deal done.

My criticism of the City of Glendale has been mostly on the basis of faulty financial analysis, misleading communication with the public, and at times nefarious activities as public servants. Through it all, they have willfully remained patsies for the NHL.

I have no respect for the GWI, but think that the COG has managed their threat quite ineptly.

Yeah, for the NHL to not even reduce the price after knowingly using them as a pawn in dealing with Winnipeg says alot about the organization. It is why I hope truly in the end, the NHL has this blow up in their face.

 

[TheLegend]

I don't disagree that the franchise has had a checkered history. I am also not among those that think that it can't work in that market.

My analysis has been that the NHL and the various ownership candidates thus far have victimized the City of Glendale and Coyotes fans. This is a special situation where Glendale has actually gone above and beyond what could be reasonably expected, and have actually saved the NHL's bacon on this debacle. In return, the NHL and ownership candidates have done nothing that shows any confidence in the market, or even any grateful concessions to get a deal done.

My criticism of the City of Glendale has been mostly on the basis of faulty financial analysis, misleading communication with the public, and at times nefarious activities as public servants. Through it all, they have willfully remained patsies for the NHL.

I have no respect for the GWI, but think that the COG has managed their threat quite ineptly.

Can't disagree with any of that. Other than with maybe with your assertion of Glendale misleading the public. There's no way to really know what information they could let out or not, and it's so easy for people to begin filling in the blanks with their own ideas.

I really feel they had the best intentions for the city in mind. And at the time they decided to enter the sport/entertainment business the economy here was booming so much nobody could ever believe it would come crashing down less than 5 years later.

But now they are in the position of trying to save what they have. Whether or not it was a good idea to do that will be the subject of even more speculation in the years ahead.

 

[MNNumbers]

Can't disagree with any of that. Other than with maybe with your assertion of Glendale misleading the public. There's no way to really know what information they could let out or not, and it's so easy for people to begin filling in the blanks with their own ideas.

I really feel they had the best intentions for the city in mind. And at the time they decided to enter the sport/entertainment business the economy here was booming so much nobody could ever believe it would come crashing down less than 5 years later.

But now they are in the position of trying to save what they have. Whether or not it was a good idea to do that will be the subject of even more speculation in the years ahead.

I don't live there, but I could believe all of this. The real problem is in the last paragraph. Of course, the big question is: Can they save the arena/team? And, will it eventually be a money maker for them? Or, will they save the team for Glendale and find it's a pet elephant (Something which looks impressive, but actually costs and costs and costs)?

 

[aqib]

To do that you need the fanbase's faith and that is hard to build up with the cyclical element of hockey teams , especially nowadays. Too much fear of this **** happening again precludes that unless you get 10 years and cash flow. I don't think that would be possible in this situation. Always bleeding since day one, crap area and a hasty move combined.

Hate to say it, but if they were still at AWA, then had a run like this, then moved...

Politically it would have been easy to move the team if it was still at AWA, because AWA was built for the Suns without consideration that a hockey team would ever show up. So it wouldn't be leaving a city with a white elephant like it is for leaving Glendale.

 

[manisback121]

Politically it would have been easy to move the team if it was still at AWA, because AWA was built for the Suns without consideration that a hockey team would ever show up. So it wouldn't be leaving a city with a white elephant like it is for leaving Glendale.

Now you're shifting my point. My point was they moved too early for a fanbase, profitability and faith. The public's trust is something they needed, as opposed to a hasty move because they were hot to have a building to the detriment of the team.

They wouldn't have needed a move if they hadn't moved so quickly.

 

[JMT21]

I'd concur that IF GJ was only $20M short of the purchase that the league might cut it's losses and let him have the team for 150M. But GJ having the extra 50M - 100M - 150M etc. to operate the team at this point seems extremely doubtful. It appears GJ also didn't respond to Doan and/or his agent which also speaks volumes.

A bit OT but I recall that in the mid 90's there were several groups banding together in Winnipeg attempting to raise funds to buy the Jets and getting funds in place to build a new arena. One group in particular (MEC) were making progress to meet a deadline set by the NHL in August 1995, out of the blue approx. 3-4 days before the deadline GB announced that any ownership group in Winnipeg had to have a net worth (or assets) of no less than 600M. MEC were blind-sided by this new demand and immediately dropped their bid to keep the team in Winnipeg.

How times have changed. In hindsight it was best for the league to leave Winnipeg at that time. With the CDN dollar in the toilet and no salary cap or revenue sharing the team in Winnipeg would have lost Coyote-like dollars every year and left eventually. The only saving grace the Coyotes have right now is their beautiful fairly new arena.

 

[CasualFan]

The only saving grace the Coyotes have right now is their beautiful fairly new arena.

Oh yes, the arena. Let's not forget that one pillar of Clarkonomics is JIG buying the arena in five years That seems really likely, doesn't it?

 

[Whileee]

Can't disagree with any of that. Other than with maybe with your assertion of Glendale misleading the public. There's no way to really know what information they could let out or not, and it's so easy for people to begin filling in the blanks with their own ideas.

I really feel they had the best intentions for the city in mind. And at the time they decided to enter the sport/entertainment business the economy here was booming so much nobody could ever believe it would come crashing down less than 5 years later.

But now they are in the position of trying to save what they have. Whether or not it was a good idea to do that will be the subject of even more speculation in the years ahead.

Beasley and city administrators misled their own city council members by hiding the Walker parking analysis and offering Hocking's as the basis for the Hulsizer deal. I would say that's a pretty big issue.

I think that the City of Glendale has willfully refused to discover and disclose what it actually costs to run the Jobing.com to the public. Even Mayor Scruggs was rebuffed in her attempts to find this out. Instead, the public has been fed misleading figures based on other arenas. Somehow, they feel that the public is best served by not knowing anything about the operations of the arena that was built and paid for by the citizens of Glendale. That's another rather egregious example.

 

[aj8000]

Yes, the market is viable CF.

I am sorry, the market is not viable at the present time. It is unlikely that the market will be viable for the Yotes for many many years to come.

To make the team viable, they need to have sellouts (90% +) every night with ticket prices significantly higher (likely double) then they are at the moment. We will not bring in the price of concessions etc.

Unfortunately, if (and this is a big if since he does not have the money) the team is purchased by Jamison, he will not have any better luck with this team then the previous owners and will quickly run out of money to turn the operation around.

 

[Killion]

I am sorry, the market is not viable at the present time. It is unlikely that the market will be viable for the Yotes for many many years to come. To make the team viable, they need to have sellouts (90% +) every night with ticket prices significantly higher (likely double) then they are at the moment. We will not bring in the price of concessions etc.... Unfortunately, if (and this is a big if since he does not have the money) the team is purchased by Jamison, he will not have any better luck with this team then the previous owners and will quickly run out of money to turn the operation around.

... I actually do agree with your assertions & opinions (along with others) to a large extent, my belief in the markets viability is positive & optimistic BUT only under beyond zealous & astute ownership & management, a completely reconfigured Lease, Arena Management Contract & Fee Structure, Sale Price & Terms. The two positions or opinions are not incompatible. On the one hand, it doesnt take someone with an MBA & years of industry specific experience to realize that this thing in its current state & with the players involved is done like dinner, absolutely fried. These people dont know how to fix it so it is therefore beyond repair. Certainly the price Glendales ready to pay way more than they can possibly afford, the probability of a municipal BK as a result extremely high if they proceed.

The amount of work involved in bringing in non hockey events, concerts, consumer & trade shows etc takes time & costs a substantial amount of money in terms of seeding the fields. And of course, competition is stiff for that business, both locally with other facilities & from out of state be it Dallas, Houston, Kansas City or wherever else. Youd absolutely need non HRR's pouring in through the gates in order to prop up the hockey operations which will indeed continue to bleed some serious red ink for 3-5yrs even with a moderate graduated increase of pricing right across the board in bringing it up to par with the likes of a Carolina or Nashville.

Absent the massive (and they are massive, completely out of line) subsidies Glendales been willing to pay, no one of merits touching it and for damn good reason. Fundamentally, the onus of responsibility falls on the shoulders of the NHL itself, and really, they & they alone are the only ones who can facilitate a local sale that would be equitable to the COG & the buyer. They'd absolutely have to drop their price by at least $70-90M (to wit they do have the ways & means however its apparent they are unwilling to do so) while the purchaser would have to retreat a considerable distance from the $325M currently tabled in AMF's over 20yrs.

Its a huge gamble, the odds stacked against the city. Damned if they do, damned if they dont throw the dice. Meltdown now or later. That Jamisons' still "not there", still hasnt closed despite the obstacles being removed, that he hasnt said a thing, not a peep, twitter or tweet of reassurance while the faithful renew their Seasons Tickets Subscriptions & UFA's jump ship is beyond appalling. These are not the actions of the kind of individual capable of resurrecting this franchise, the building itself. Wheres the confidence, the hubris one needs to succeed? Not seeing it. All 3 parties, Glendale, the NHL & Jamison need to get back to the board room & hammer something out, market value AMF, 5yr out, substantially lower sale price, possible terms, capped Consent Form pursuant to losses, release of Jamisons MOU to the public, on & on & on.

Wont happen.

 

[GuelphStormer]

Beasley and city administrators misled their own city council members by hiding the Walker parking analysis and offering Hocking's as the basis for the Hulsizer deal. I would say that's a pretty big issue.

I think that the City of Glendale has willfully refused to discover and disclose what it actually costs to run the Jobing.com to the public. Even Mayor Scruggs was rebuffed in her attempts to find this out. Instead, the public has been fed misleading figures based on other arenas. Somehow, they feel that the public is best served by not knowing anything about the operations of the arena that was built and paid for by the citizens of Glendale. That's another rather egregious example.

and don't forget "play with her".

i have to agree, it is rather obvious that glendale has taken deliberate steps to mislead throughout much of this saga. even mislead themselves, which takes it from the sad and incompetent category into the wtf category of governance.

 

[blues10]

I suppose Tindall will be weaving some magic at 10:30 am today. It should be fun!

 

[ducks2010]

Looks like Glendale council will be returning a bit early. A workshop has been scheduled for tomorrow afternoon (Tues Jul 31, 2012) at 1:30 pm. Workshops are not televised. The usual arena negotiations update is on the agenda.

Let the rumors begin for the reason for this unusual mid-summer workshop.
- Jamison has sent notice he is out.
- Jamison is almost there, he just needs the pot sweetened a bit more.
- NHL took their $20 mil. from escrow. They are packing their wagons.
- NHL wants their remaining $5 mil still due from last year paid up before they pull the plug.
- NHL wants next years $17 mil now but don't worry it is just "insurance" and won't really be needed as the deal is just about done. Clark says it won't really cost Glendale anything to pay now as it is already in the approved budget.
- Reinsdorf wants back in.
- Glendale is going to buy $100 mil in parking spaces from Doan. Glendale will end up paying whether Doan leaves or not so why not keep him?
- Glendale knows they will lose today in court and need to figure out a plan B without a tax increase.
- NHL isn't going to renew the arena management contract beyond Jul 31st. Glendale needs to scramble to find someone else starting Aug 1st, if they can, to manage the arena for $25 million a year.

Sunnicks... feel free to use any of the above as "facts" if you wish.

http://www.glendaleaz.com/clerk/agendasandminutes/Workshops/Agendas/073112-sw00.pdf

 

[Jesus Christ Horburn]

If the workshop is Coyotes related, I'm guessing COG will ante up another 25 million to cover losses for 2012-2013.

 

[BigBadBread]

Why not just go the Jets 1.0 route? Move the team now, and come back when they have their poop together. You already got an arena, let the team go and be profitable somewhere else and when you get a decent plan together with a stable owner (not IEH, Hulziser, JIG) put in your bid to re-join the league. Gary should have no problem letting a market like that back in if its in good hands.

 

[davemac1313]

Why not just go the Jets 1.0 route? Move the team now, and come back when they have their poop together. You already got an arena, let the team go and be profitable somewhere else and when you get a decent plan together with a stable owner (not IEH, Hulziser, JIG) put in your bid to re-join the league. Gary should have no problem letting a market like that back in if its in good hands.

Serious? I have been told time and again that this market will not support aa AHL team, that was the key to the Jets return. This market requires the perfect storm of Deep pocketed Owner, Philanthropic City Council giving vast sums of money with no request for repayment, Below average ticket prices, Top 5 finish every year, mass transit to get the fans to Glendale, Free or near Free parking and free giveaways every game (sponser paid) to be successful and reach its potential. In addition in no way shape or form should or could there be any type of demand for a minimum number of ST to be sold, either by the league or the owner, cause the market remembers that Jerry Moyes screwed up the success of the hockey team and the shopping mall and they shouldn't have to rationalize their hesitation to anyone.

That said, what you suggest is absolutely the solution, but it will never happen because no decent or stable owner will ever step in with the plan required to be successful, unless he intends to lose 30 million a year forever.

The market simply is not committed to hockey as anything other than something to do every once in a while. The core fan base is small, and doesn't appear to have grown to the point where anybody could sustain it as a profitable venture. I do not believe it ever will, any investor with JIG would have stood to make a better ROI through Bernie Madoff, than through this venture. And we all no what those investors have now....

I can't believe this continues

 

[OettingerCroat]

Why not just go the Jets 1.0 route? Move the team now, and come back when they have their poop together. You already got an arena, let the team go and be profitable somewhere else and when you get a decent plan together with a stable owner (not IEH, Hulziser, JIG) put in your bid to re-join the league. Gary should have no problem letting a market like that back in if its in good hands.

i agree... if they genuinely think Phoenix is the place for NHL ice hockey, then let a team move back there once the city gets its finances in order.

until then, bring a team back to Québec City, a fan base that in every way deserves an NHL franchise. I mean any team will do. however the Coyotes are ripest to leave. the day they do, all I'll have to say is good riddance, it was high time.

 

[GuelphStormer]

Why not just go the Jets 1.0 route? Move the team now, and come back when they have their poop together. You already got an arena, let the team go and be profitable somewhere else and when you get a decent plan together with a stable owner (not IEH, Hulziser, JIG) put in your bid to re-join the league. Gary should have no problem letting a market like that back in if its in good hands.

but then the arena would have to be boarded up, or turn to dust, or sprout wings and fly up to the mothership, I always forget which one it is this week.

nah, the only reason phoenix has a team is because they have a team now. inertia rules.

once it's gone, I doubt anyone would reasonably think it would ever return. not even dedicated yotes fans, which is why they are so willing to cut off their (neighbours') noses to keep it around.

 

[OthmarAmmann]

Looks like Glendale council will be returning a bit early. A workshop has been scheduled for tomorrow afternoon (Tues Jul 31, 2012) at 1:30 pm. Workshops are not televised. The usual arena negotiations update is on the agenda.

Let the rumors begin for the reason for this unusual mid-summer workshop.
- Jamison has sent notice he is out.
- Jamison is almost there, he just needs the pot sweetened a bit more.
- NHL took their $20 mil. from escrow. They are packing their wagons.
- NHL wants their remaining $5 mil still due from last year paid up before they pull the plug.
- NHL wants next years $17 mil now but don't worry it is just "insurance" and won't really be needed as the deal is just about done. Clark says it won't really cost Glendale anything to pay now as it is already in the approved budget.
- Reinsdorf wants back in.
- Glendale is going to buy $100 mil in parking spaces from Doan. Glendale will end up paying whether Doan leaves or not so why not keep him?
- Glendale knows they will lose today in court and need to figure out a plan B without a tax increase.
- NHL isn't going to renew the arena management contract beyond Jul 31st. Glendale needs to scramble to find someone else starting Aug 1st, if they can, to manage the arena for $25 million a year.

Sunnicks... feel free to use any of the above as "facts" if you wish.

http://www.glendaleaz.com/clerk/agendasandminutes/Workshops/Agendas/073112-sw00.pdf

 

[cbcwpg]

Why not just go the Jets 1.0 route? Move the team now, and come back when they have their poop together. You already got an arena, let the team go and be profitable somewhere else and when you get a decent plan together with a stable owner (not IEH, Hulziser, JIG) put in your bid to re-join the league. Gary should have no problem letting a market like that back in if its in good hands.

If getting thier poop together means ... A very, very wealthy owner who wants to own a team for fun and doesn't really care about turning a profit... then sure, but if that was going to happen it would have happened by now.

Even if the JIG ends up owning the team, signs the lease, and collects his ~$15M per year for passing "GO" ... the annual deathwatch for this franchise is never going to stop.

 

[powerstuck]

If getting thier poop together means ... A very, very wealthy owner who wants to own a team for fun and doesn't really care about turning a profit... then sure, but if that was going to happen it would have happened by now.

Even if the JIG ends up owning the team, signs the lease, and collects his ~$15M per year for passing "GO" ... the annual deathwatch for this franchise is never going to stop.

Don't know why but Jerry Jones comes to my mind.

 

[kihekah19*]

Why not just go the Jets 1.0 route? Move the team now, and come back when they have their poop together. You already got an arena, let the team go and be profitable somewhere else and when you get a decent plan together with a stable owner (not IEH, Hulziser, JIG) put in your bid to re-join the league. Gary should have no problem letting a market like that back in if its in good hands.

Because a publicly funded arena was built to house an NHL team. The rhetoric at that time (from the NHL) was that it would insure the team stay in the valley for thirty years.

The black eye of leaving a publicly financed arena (rhetoric or not) is what the league is trying to avoid.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

not really sure about that, they would have to modify the schedule for the 29 other teams, also if they move the coyotes to quebec, the easiest thing to do would be to swap the jets and the nordiques schedule and have the nordiques play in the southeast division and the jets in the pacific division

what Scoobs is suggesting is exactly why realignment wasn't approved by agreement of both the League and the PA, care, Scoobs, to simplify and appease Dallas for being in a division that's not appeasible because Vancouver loves the Northwest, and under the proposed alignment, the Southeast disappears entirely, and then you have to appease Minnesota so it's not the only US team in otherwise an all-Canadian division...

 

[Evil Doctor]

Because a publicly funded arena was built to house an NHL team. The rhetoric at that time (from the NHL) was that it would insure the team stay in the valley for thirty years.

The black eye of leaving a publicly financed arena (rhetoric or not) is what the league is trying to avoid.

No, it won't. That is the one thing that won't give the league a black eye. Other communities are just going to assume that Glendale is a special case. You just have to look at Markham, they're making the same mistake as Glendale, yet they think it's going to turn out different.

 

[RR]

hardcore addicts may enjoy the goings-on in court today:

https://twitter.com/azc_aseligman