Recalled/Assigned: Phillip Broberg recalled...

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Broberg is nowhere close to as bad as the -8 would suggest. A lot of the goals scored with him on the ice have nothing to do with him and he is getting an absolute screwjob in terms of goaltending/luck. 0.825 OISV%, 85.9 PDO, you'd think he ran a truck through a mirror shop or something. I would probably send him down once Ceci comes back so he can continue getting top pairing minutes in the AHL instead of the 10-15 he usually gets here, especially with Niemelainen playing as well as he has. He also knows what to work on after his NHL cup of coffee and we'll probs see him back up later in the year. But the "demotion" is not related to gameplay and sure as f*** not b/c he's -8.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

If Lagesson was -8 in 8 games would there be so much as a discussion going on here?

Lagesson doesn't have an 0.825 on ice save percentage and 85.9 PDO.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Broberg is nowhere close to as bad as the -8 would suggest. A lot of the goals scored with him on the ice have nothing to do with him and he is getting an absolute screwjob in terms of goaltending/luck. 0.825 OISV%, 85.9 PDO, you'd think he ran a truck through a mirror shop or something. I would probably send him down once Ceci comes back so he can continue getting top pairing minutes in the AHL instead of the 10-15 he usually gets here, especially with Niemelainen playing as well as he has. He also knows what to work on after his NHL cup of coffee and we'll probs see him back up later in the year. But the "demotion" is not related to gameplay and sure as f*** not b/c he's -8.

I would still send him down before burying any confidence he might have started to develop.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

I would still send him down before burying any confidence he might have started to develop.

Oh I would send him down and keep Niemelainen up too, but the people here throwing around the -8 number as if he was playing like 2014-15 Nikita Nikitin are being ridiculous. Not only does +/- suck for evaluating defensemen capabilities (see: Jeff Petry's +/- numbers with us) he's also getting absolutely hammered by whatever voodoo shaman curse was placed on him.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Oh I would send him down and keep Niemelainen up too, but the people here throwing around the -8 number as if he was playing like 2014-15 Nikita Nikitin are being ridiculous. Not only does +/- suck for evaluating defensemen capabilities (see: Jeff Petry's +/- numbers with us) he's also getting absolutely hammered by whatever voodoo shaman curse was placed on him.

You're not wrong, he's had a tough run. If they aren't getting help back on either side, I would send him down and bring up Samo to see what he can bring (or Berglund)

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

You're not wrong, he's had a tough run. If they aren't getting help back on either side, I would send him down and bring up Samo to see what he can bring (or Berglund)

Ceci and Keith should be back in a week or so anyway, just play out the next few games, keep Niemelainen up, send Broberg down, K Russell becomes the 7D.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Ceci and Keith should be back in a week or so anyway, just play out the next few games, keep Niemelainen up, send Broberg down, K Russell becomes the 7D.

Personally I might send Niemo down just to get him to work on the couple of short comings I've seen (foot work and quicker decision making) with the promise of him as the first recall, then I would trade 4K + for a short term replacement with Russel as 7D as you said.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Personally I might send Niemo down just to get him to work on the couple of short comings I've seen (foot work and quicker decision making) with the promise of him as the first recall, then I would trade 4K + for a short term replacement with Russel as 7D as you said.

I feel like Niemelainen brings something nobody else on our d corps brings besides sorta Nurse. Like this guy goes out there and kills people, you can already see opposing forwards think twice about trying to go past him into the offensive zone and opt to dump the puck in instead. He's looked pretty solid defensively too and the metrics back it up despite having to take a lot of shifts with a right winger as his partner. I don't really think the AHL is the place to learn quicker decision making anyway due to how much slower the pace of play is down there, might as well keep him up and actually practice his puck skills on a day to day basis against the best players.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

I feel like Niemelainen brings something nobody else on our d corps brings besides sorta Nurse. Like this guy goes out there and kills people, you can already see opposing forwards think twice about trying to go past him into the offensive zone and opt to dump the puck in instead. He's looked pretty solid defensively too and the metrics back it up despite having to take a lot of shifts with a right winger as his partner. I don't really think the AHL is the place to learn quicker decision making anyway due to how much slower the pace of play is down there, might as well keep him up and actually practice his puck skills on a day to day basis against the best players.

Fair point, I just hope the team is really working him with his foot work. It's just a spot that concerns me. I don't fault him with that Fiala fly by last game, that guys is going to catch some young guys. I'm encouraged as well, though I want to see what the new coach thinks of him (fire Tippett soon)

 

[MessierII]

Lagesson doesn't have an 0.825 on ice save percentage and 85.9 PDO.

Sure you can chalk some of it up to bad luck but it’s a results orientated business. He needs to go down. The fact posters are arguing against that is just mind boggling to me. Some people apparently learned nothing between 2009-15.

 

[CycloneSweep]

Lagesson doesn't have an 0.825 on ice save percentage and 85.9 PDO.

Ahh yes the age old “it s only luck”

So Draisaitl is only lucky right? I mean he has over 1 pdo

Players who give up higher quality chances or are not good defensively often have a lower on ice s%

 

[voxel]

Sure you can chalk some of it up to bad luck but it’s a results orientated business. He needs to go down. The fact posters are arguing against that is just mind boggling to me. Some people apparently learned nothing between 2009-15.

Yeah if Bouchard was playing in the NHL after 13 AHL games, he’d be crushed analytically too. Broberg was young for his draft and is about two years younger than Bouchard but tracking ahead IMO. I like his overall game, if a bit raw.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Ahh yes the age old “it s only luck”

So Draisaitl is only lucky right? I mean he has over 1 pdo

Players who give up higher quality chances or are not good defensively often have a lower on ice s%

This entire team has horrible high danger chance differential, heck freaking Draisaitl himself hovers at like 45%. The only players above 50% are McDavid, Hyman, Puljujarvi, McLeod, Nurse, and Bouchard. Yet Broberg's on ice save percentage is comfortably lower than all of the other players hovering around the same 40% high danger chance differential. The only player even in the same stratosphere as Broberg in terms of of poor puck luck on the Oilers is Derek Ryan at 0.843 OISV% and 88 PDO who also while not good so far this year is nowhere near "-13" levels of bad.

 

[CycloneSweep]

This entire team has horrible high danger chance differential, heck freaking Draisaitl himself hovers at like 45%. The only players above 50% are McDavid, Hyman, Puljujarvi, McLeod, Nurse, and Bouchard. Yet Broberg's on ice save percentage is comfortably lower than all of the other players hovering around the same 40% high danger chance differential. The only player even in the same stratosphere as Broberg in terms of of poor puck luck on the Oilers is Derek Ryan at 0.843 OISV% and 88 PDO who also while not good so far this year is nowhere near "-13" levels of bad.

You could just blame it all on luck but thats not entirely what PDO is.
Also not all high danger chances are made even. Like a high danger chance from McDavid is much riskier than say a high danger chance from Derek Ryan.
They don't track varying levels of high danger chances. Heck, lets just ignore the actual goal numbers and PDO then.
Broberg has the third worst xGF% on the team for defense behind Russell and Koekkoek.
He shockingly has the 3 lowest rate of scoring chances but has the 2nd highest High danger chance rates, just behind Koekkoek.
You could blame Russell for that but Russell actually allows the 4th lowest high danger chances so, really, can't blame him for that.
He also has the 2nd lowest High danger chances for rates.
He has both the worst on ice s% and the worst on ice shooting%. You can say he is just really lucky but I mean....no?
Looking deeper at the numbers when he is on the ice he is not helping to produce high danger chances while allowing way to many.
Which is a clear indicator why his PDO is so low. Yes Broberg may not be -8 bad but he has been in the Koekkoek, Russell realm of defenders since he has been up and thats not a good sign

 

[Samus44]

Broberg will be a great top 4 dman for a long time. Now's not the tine. His reads need to improve and thats normal. We can slow play him unlike Nurse. He should spend this year in the AHL playing in all situations and learning to dominate, not just survive. I'd rather play Niemelainen and Lagesson over him at 3D. He made the most sense to replace Nurse, but as depth players they play a safer game and can help the PK.

 

[Aerchon]

Broberg started out well and currently doesn't look like he is nhl ready. Bouchard was significantly better in his first 7 nhl games just my opinion and was sent down. Is what it is.

Niemelainen is clearly ahead of him currently and deserves to stay ahead of him.

 

[MessierII]

This entire team has horrible high danger chance differential, heck freaking Draisaitl himself hovers at like 45%. The only players above 50% are McDavid, Hyman, Puljujarvi, McLeod, Nurse, and Bouchard. Yet Broberg's on ice save percentage is comfortably lower than all of the other players hovering around the same 40% high danger chance differential. The only player even in the same stratosphere as Broberg in terms of of poor puck luck on the Oilers is Derek Ryan at 0.843 OISV% and 88 PDO who also while not good so far this year is nowhere near "-13" levels of bad.

Save % on ice at least for D men isn’t pure luck it’s also an indication of defensive play.

 

[Trafalgar Sadge Law]

Save % on ice at least for D men isn’t pure luck it’s also an indication of defensive play.

And yet Koekkoek who has lower high danger chances percentage, lower expected goals percentage, and higher HDCA per 60 has a significantly higher OISV% and PDO than him. So either Koekkoek is the luckiest player on the planet or Broberg is getting screwed by the goaltending far more than his defensive play would indicate.

 

[Spawn]

And yet Koekkoek who has lower high danger chances percentage, lower expected goals percentage, and higher HDCA per 60 has a significantly higher OISV% and PDO than him. So either Koekkoek is the luckiest player on the planet or Broberg is getting screwed by the goaltending far more than his defensive play would indicate.

Bunch of junk stats don't change the fact that currently Broberg is getting buried in an avalanche of GA right now. Dude isn't NHL ready. Glorified shot metrics don't change that fact.

 

[MessierII]

And yet Koekkoek who has lower high danger chances percentage, lower expected goals percentage, and higher HDCA per 60 has a significantly higher OISV% and PDO than him. So either Koekkoek is the luckiest player on the planet or Broberg is getting screwed by the goaltending far more than his defensive play would indicate.

I throw scoring chance stats out the window. Not reliable at all. They don’t even account for actual goals.

 

[McDNicks17]

I throw scoring chance stats out the window. Not reliable at all. They don’t even account for actual goals.

Huh? I think you've been misinformed.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Why the excuses?

No excuses, just trying to judge the play of an individual in a team sport.

Okay, take away half of them and he goes from the defenses worst +/- of 8 to tied for the defenses worst +/- of -4 with Barrie but in only 1/3 of the games.

That's not bad considering how shitty we've been playing lately IMO.

I mean the -8 in 8 games isn't mean he is a bust or anything.
It absolutely means he is not NHL ready. Which again, isn't bad, just a reality for the young player.

Im going to heavily disagree. The call up will do wonders for him to show what he needs to work on but its not something he can do in a month. He will go down for the rest of the season. Niemelainen/Lagesson (maybe) will be callups before him for the bottom pair as they are more finished products at this point and the bottom pair duty won't really hurt their development.

I still think he is a few years away, he makes some lovely plays moving the puck but his decision making without the puck is still quite bad. Thats only something you learn by playing and working thru, which the AHL is good for. He is a next season mid season player at the earliest.

Lagesson absolutely should not play top 6 over Broberg right now. I get the argument for Niemelainen, but Lagesson is an AHL player and a guy that I'd probably walk away from if he's a FA at seasons end.

 

[Aerchon]

No excuses, just trying to judge the play of an individual in a team sport.



That's not bad considering how shitty we've been playing lately IMO.



Lagesson absolutely should not play top 6 over Broberg right now. I get the argument for Niemelainen, but Lagesson is an AHL player and a guy that I'd probably walk away from if he's a FA at seasons end.

Not to pile on but from what I was watching Lags, even playing less than great himself, is preferable on the Oilers. Both because he has played better overall in the NHL to date and because Broberg can use the top line minutes of the AHL far more constructively than Lags who is pretty much what he is going to be, a 6/7/8 depth guy.

Im stuck on repeat here but after a strong start his steady decline/fade away is concerning. Sure he could get better eventually and start looking like he belongs in the NHL or he could decline even worse. But there just isnt a reason to have him here except for the ridiculous amount of injuries the Oilers had. Guys are back, he goes down where he will benefit far more.

Not to get too theoretical but I get the impression some are maybe upset he didnt show as well as hoped and while he wasnt exactly wowing the guy we should have drafted Zegras is looking absolutely amazing doing things even McDavid struggles with. A beauty highlight reel assist from him probably is not exactly making Brobergs struggles easier to bear.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Not to pile on but from what I was watching Lags, even playing less than great himself, is preferable on the Oilers. Both because he has played better overall in the NHL to date and because Broberg can use the top line minutes of the AHL far more constructively than Lags who is pretty much what he is going to be, a 6/7/8 depth guy.

Im stuck on repeat here but after a strong start his steady decline/fade away is concerning. Sure he could get better eventually and start looking like he belongs in the NHL or he could decline even worse. But there just isnt a reason to have him here except for the ridiculous amount of injuries the Oilers had. Guys are back, he goes down where he will benefit far more.

Not to get too theoretical but I get the impression some are maybe upset he didnt show as well as hoped and while he wasnt exactly wowing the guy we should have drafted Zegras is looking absolutely amazing doing things even McDavid struggles with. A beauty highlight reel assist from him probably is not exactly making Brobergs struggles easier to bear.

We need another solid top 4 guy and one on an ELC is a huge asset to have on a team like ours. Good on Zegras for playing well, that said we didn't draft Zegras, so I don't lump the two together. That said he has been solid enough for us playing a more difficult position during a major time of need. Remember when people were propping up Ty Smith and Dobson over Bouchard? Just because a player gets the jump on another's NHL career doesn't mean that they will always be the superior player.

 

[MessierII]

Huh? I think you've been misinformed.

They don’t. A goal scored is not counted as a scoring chance on natural stat trick at least.