Confirmed Signing with Link: [PHI] Ivan Provorov re-signs with the Flyers (6 years, $6.75M AAV)

[CapitalsCupReality]

Seems like a good deal if he bounces back.

 

[tictactoe]

yay!! Konecny next hopefully around 4.5 6 years deal. I feel like FLyers did overpay a little bit vs Morrissey signing. Wish it was 8 year deal

Eklund called it.. eh!

Provorov Niskanen Gostisbehere Sanheim Braun Myers Morin Hagg with Hart and Elliott.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Sorry, gotta do it...but I just scoff all the time at people taking McCurdy's graph-crunching as some form of gospel. I really respect his efforts and what he's trying to do, but it's just so damn incongruent with reality. Starts with the veracity of the statistics/shot locations going into the model (whether they're actually accurately recorded, the impossible computation of real-life quality of the shots in terms of shooter, velocity, time to take, open look, forehand/backhand...). Then goes into whether or not shots are even the best metric to look at for this stuff.

Like, in the last month: Andrew MacDonald is a great penalty killer! Jake Gardiner is a solid first-pairing defenseman! Werenski is a weak 5v5 player! OK, sure, man...or all those completely contrarian notions come from your model's utter lack of context, in which player usage (situational, beyond the already-dubious quality of competition) and real-life shot quality are currently impossible to factor, and shot differentials aren't necessarily the be-all-end-all of hockey.

In fact, you know that team that just tied a league record with 62 f***ing wins in the regular season? They had a negative shot differential over the course of 82 games.

My favorite was the Gudas/Niskanen graphs that convinced a lot of the most pessimistic Flyers fans that Fletcher made a grave mistake there. Gudas is an offensive black hole who sinks offensive cycles by floating easy muffins for the goalie to freeze. Matt Niskanen is a better player than him offensively, a thousand times out of ten. He's a better all-around player, too. But McCurdy was on this horse about how Gudas was better based on the charts. Like, great, man, but it seems like there's massive pieces missing here.

 

[Ryuji Yamazaki]

Overpayment

 

[hmc1987]

I just mean general eye-test, though. I thought he looked like a young Jacob Trouba out there in his rookie year...tough to play against, a little bit of a predator instinct. He had a presence. This past year I didn't even notice him, ever. It was Sanheim who stole the show most nights I watched Philly.

Sanheim and Meyers

 

[FlyguyOX]

Fair deal. Like it

 

[Curufinwe]

This is more than Pastrnak got. Nobody would have called those deals "great" or even good for that matter a year ago. Hedman's 2nd contract was 4 mil per 5 years. So calling contract like this great just shows how much the league is changing.

Hedman's first couple of years were very up and down, and he signed two months into his 3rd season.

 

[Riseonfire]

(someone has enough statistics experience to understand that current hockey analytics tools are laughably rudimentary and decontextualized to the point of being mostly irrelevant)

You are entitled to that opinion. I very much disagree. Eye and Graph show similar things. He's not a great defender and kills any PP he's on.

 

[Rich Nixon]

Hedman's first couple of years were very up and down, and he signed two months into his 3rd season.

When Hedman's second deal was signed, it represented 6.22% of the cap. That was 8 years ago. Provorov's is 8.28%. Considering it's been nearly a decade, with a lockout in between, and that young RFAs have undoubtedly gained more leverage over that time, I'd say that it's completely reasonable.

You are entitled to that opinion. I very much disagree. Eye and Graph show similar things. He's not a great defender and kills any PP he's on.

The PP bit is valid, though again, that's equally a product of an outright terrible second PP unit over the past few years. But he is a good defender, and that's just what that is. I kinda dove into my reasoning for why I think those models are buns further up on this page. It's like someone trying to prove to you that Yngwie Malmsteen is the greatest guitarist of all time by mapping note frequency and pick accuracy, regardless of whether or not that's what actually makes for a good guitarist. They tell you only what they tell you: Where shots were occurring when the player was on the ice.

Plus, no disrespect, but I don't think many of the people equating "eye" and "graph" actually have enough "eye" to go off of.

 

[Naturaledge]

This deal confirms that Morrisey's deal is an absolute bargain. Good for IP.

 

[jetsforever]

This is both a good deal for Philly and makes me even happier about the Morrissey deal.

 

[TS Quint]

Teams do adjust cash payments to reflect performance decline.

Jamie Benn started his deal at age 28. First 3 years he is paid $13 mill then year 4 its $9, year 5 its like $8, then final 3 years its $6.5 per beginning at age 33 and he ends the contract in the year he turns 36.

So for Warenski and others who remain rfa (Meier as well) they would be pricing their contract higher than others who are ufa at say 28 that summer to reflect the number of prime years remaining.

Warenski would still very likely get a contract when he’s 33. Edler at 34 got $12 mill for 2 years.

Very likely if those 2 guys play the basically the same number of years to say 35/36, they likely end up making close to the same amount.

No, the reason for the front loaded contracts you are talking about is today’s money is worth more than tomorrow’s. It’s an incentive for players to sign.

 

[TSA0402]

This is the deal I wanted Werenski from CBJ to sign.

Great contract.

 

[Rebels57]

You are entitled to that opinion. I very much disagree. Eye and Graph show similar things. He's not a great defender and kills any PP he's on.

He was great both his rookie year and sophomore year. Last year this team was a mess. GM fired. Then coach fired. 8 different goalies used. Drama left and right. It was a total clusterf***. He was bad the first half and then settled down the second half. He's 22 years old. He's going to bounce back and in fact, he's going to get better.

 

[justafan22]

This reminds me of the Rielly contract when he signed it 3 years ago

 

[grapes55]

Really nice deal for Provorov. This really reminds me of the Rielly deal because he was coming off some tough years with lower point totals and heavy d-zone deployment, congrats Flyers fans!

 

[Larry44]

He was great both his rookie year and sophomore year. Last year this team was a mess. GM fired. Then coach fired. 8 different goalies used. Drama left and right. It was a total cluster****. He was bad the first half and then settled down the second half. He's 22 years old. He's going to bounce back and in fact, he's going to get better.

With 2 years with Niskanen as partner, he should do just fine. Steady vet to teach him the ropes. They will play the hardest minutes, letting Sanheim and Ghost thrive on the other pairings. Great deal for the Flyers and for Provy.

 

[robertmac43]

Really good contract for the flyers imo, dominoes are starting to fall around the league.

 

[Syckle78]

Sorry, gotta do it...but I just scoff all the time at people taking McCurdy's graph-crunching as some form of gospel. I really respect his efforts and what he's trying to do, but it's just so damn incongruent with reality. Starts with the veracity of the statistics/shot locations going into the model (whether they're actually accurately recorded, the impossible computation of real-life quality of the shots in terms of shooter, velocity, time to take, open look, forehand/backhand...). Then goes into whether or not shots are even the best metric to look at for this stuff.

Like, in the last month: Andrew MacDonald is a great penalty killer! Jake Gardiner is a solid first-pairing defenseman! Werenski is a weak 5v5 player! OK, sure, man...or all those completely contrarian notions come from your model's utter lack of context, in which player usage (situational, beyond the already-dubious quality of competition) and real-life shot quality are currently impossible to factor, and shot differentials aren't necessarily the be-all-end-all of hockey.

In fact, you know that team that just tied a league record with 62 ****ing wins in the regular season? They had a negative shot differential over the course of 82 games.

My favorite was the Gudas/Niskanen graphs that convinced a lot of the most pessimistic Flyers fans that Fletcher made a grave mistake there. Gudas is an offensive black hole who sinks offensive cycles by floating easy muffins for the goalie to freeze. Matt Niskanen is a better player than him offensively, a thousand times out of ten. He's a better all-around player, too. But McCurdy was on this horse about how Gudas was better based on the charts. Like, great, man, but it seems like there's massive pieces missing here.

I think the mindset has to be with these guys that if they keep trying to peddle their graphs enough we'll eventually just forget that context is a thing that exists....or it is just another form of troll journalism.

 

[Starat327]

Here's the thing... Provorov isn't very good. Not even close to MM, MR, BP, etc

Yeah, we are unfortunate to get stuck with him after the Devils snacthed future HOF Pavel Zacha from us with their pick.

 

[Rich Nixon]

I think the mindset has to be with these guys that if they keep trying to peddle their graphs enough we'll eventually just forget that context is a thing that exists....or it is just another form of troll journalism.

It's just really nascent, and hockey is not a sport you can model the way you can literally any othe other big 3 North American sports. Those all consist of constant endpoints and intervals. A pitch until a dead ball, a down, and at most 2-3 30 second possessions in basketball before a score and reset. Hockey can be free-flowing without a whistle for 5 minutes straight in some occasions. Players come on and off constantly. Everything is moving much more quickly. There are way more outcomes after the end of a play (frozen puck, penalty, etc) than in any other. Baseball will always start from the pitcher's mound. Basketball will (almost) always start from an inbound pass. Football will always start with a snap. You know the team that's on offense from the outset of every unique sequence in those three sports besides the increasingly rare jump ball in basketball. In hockey, there isn't even assigned possession from the start of any given play, which can constitute anywhere from 3 seconds of action to 300.

We really want to be able to model it, and we can't, yet.

 

[Rebels57]

Yeah, we are unfortunate to get stuck with him after the Devils snacthed future HOF Pavel Zacha from us with their pick.

He's not even worth responding to. He's had to change usernames multiple times after being banned for trolling Flyers threads.

SMantzas was the first username. Can't even remember the second it came and went so quickly.

 

[Starat327]

He's not even worth responding to. He's had to change usernames multiple times after being banned for trolling Flyers threads.

SMantzas was the first username. Can't even remember the second it came and went so quickly.

Yup, I remember. and usually i don't but this one was just too easy.

 

[Curufinwe]

Yeah, we are unfortunate to get stuck with him after the Devils snacthed future HOF Pavel Zacha from us with their pick.

SMantzas just has super high standards for LHD because of Andy Greene.

 

[flyerslducks]

I'm not sure the up year before was the real provorov. We'll see, it'd be fantastic if he was a reliable goal scoring machine back there, but I'm not sure he will be and think his defensive game gets overstated.

i guess we'll see really. I don't think his goal scoring that year will be replicated but we don't need him to do that. He can definitely get 8-10 though and 40 points is manageable. I think his defensive game will be really seen this year as we will have more depth all around, a reliable goalie duo (something we never had but hopefully will), and less pressure.