Prospect Info: Phantoms (AHL), Reading Royals (ECHL), NCAA, Juniors, Int'l, etc. [Pt. 3, March 2015]

[Roo Mad Bro]

Thanks denominator. Do you have a prediction for the series?

 

[Curufinwe]

Is Stolarz's low save percentage concerning? Is he just playing behind a horrible team or has he also been unimpressive?

I don't think the Phantoms are horrible. But they are shorthanded constantly which makes it hard for the goalies to maintain a good SV%.

If Stolarz is ready to be an NHL backup in 17-18 that would be ahead of schedule. Corey Crawford is a good example of a 2nd round pick who played in the AHL for five seasons before becoming a full-time NHL player.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=11347

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

Is Stolarz's low save percentage concerning? Is he just playing behind a horrible team or has he also been unimpressive?

Phantoms were one of the most penalized teams in the AHL. I think their PK was bad too. Not easy to maintain high sv% when you're always down a man and playing behind a poor pk unit.

 

[TheKingPin]

Chara was pretty bad to start his NHL career

 

[denominator]

Thanks denominator. Do you have a prediction for the series?

I am confident the Hitmen will win.

I was going to say Hitmen in 5 or 6, but the schedule is all wonky because the Saddledome is so busy (especially now that it looks like the Flames will be playing past Saturday). The Hitmen have home ice advantage, but the games are:

Game 1: Friday in MH
Game 2: Sunday in Calgary
Game 3: Saturday in Calgary
Game 4: Wednesday in MH
Game 5: TBA (likely Friday in Calgary)
Game 6: TBA (likely Saturday or Sunday in MH)
Game 7: TBA (likely Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday in Calgary)

And there are rumours that Game 6 will be in Calgary with 7 in MH. The Arena in MH is a tough rink to win games in if you're not the Tigers, so giving them Game 1 is a big advantage. If they get Game 7, and it goes to 7 games, then that is a big advantage for the Tigers as well.

So I'd say Hitmen in 6 or 7, unless Game 7 is in MH, then the Tigers in 7.

 

[Appleyard]

Regarding the age that D men mature... I did not save my old study on it and it was pretty simplistic tbh.

So I decided to do another one quickly that is far better.

I took 100 defenseman currently in the NHL, I tried to include as many as the best 100 as I could, but it is probably more like ~85 of the best 100 currently and ~15 who were/are also top 4 guys at some point.

I then split them into 3 groups, which were:

Top tier #1s: This group has 11 Dmen in it. (Weber, Suter, Doughty, Keith, Subban, Chara, Hedman, McDonagh, Ekman-Larsson, Karlsson and Pietrangelo.)

Legitimate #1s: This group has 17 Dmen in it, not all are currently #1 standard but I believe all were at some point or are currently. (Vlasic, Giordano, E. Johnson, Carlson, Faulk, Seabrook, Kronwall, Shattenkirk, Fowler, Letang, Josi, Bouwmeester, Phaneuf, Markov, Gonchar, Hamhuis and Yandle.)

The other 72 dmen comprised guys like: Streit, Coburn, Stralman, Burns, Methot, Brodin, Vatanen, Lindholm, Green, Hjalmarsson, Girardi, Ehrhoff, Edler, Voynov, Staal, Sekera, Leddy, J. Johnson, Muzzin, Greene, Hamilton, Spurgeon, Petry, Wideman, Mitchell, Orpik, Bieksa, Daley, Phillips, Carle etc... that is just a 30 player sample of the 72 but you get the gist. Some of these guys are #2s, some are #4s... but all are or were capable of playing a top 4 role. I picked them mainly on who is currently best in the league, but also factored in minutes they receive and points they get.

Then I looked at two things:

When they first became top 4 Dmen, ie 20+ minutes a game.

When they first became #1s. This is harder to discern, but I looked at Norris voting, guys playing ~24+ minutes and points.

Then I averaged each group and the overall cohort.

The results were:

Top tier #1s:

Became top 4: 20.73 years of age.
Became #1s: 22.55 years of age.

Legitimate #1s:

Became top 4: 21.35 years of age.
Became #1s: 23.41 years of age.

Top 4 Dmen:

Became top 4: 22.74 years of age.

Overall:

Became top 4: 22.28 years of age.
Became #1s: 23.07 years of age.

(Note: The ages I used were the age as hockey reference does, so their age on February 1st of the given season they were 1st a #1 or top 4.)

Worth noting the median age a player became top 4 was age 22.
The median age a player became a #1 was 23.

The mode age a player became top 4 was age 22.
The mode age a player became a #1 was age 23.

The youngest a player became top 4 was age 18. (Ekblad.)
The oldest a player became top 4 was age 31. (Streit, no-one else was over 28, only 20/100 were age 25 or older, with 6/100 age 27 or older.)

The youngest a player became #1 was age 20. (Doughty.)
The oldest a player became #1 was age 28. (Kronwall, him and Giordano (27) are the only 2 age 26 or older. Chara and E. Johnson at age 25 are the only other 2 of the 28 '#1s' who became #1s at 25 or older. 6 more were 24, (Suter, Keith, Carlson, Yandle, Markov and Gonchar) so 10/28 were 24 or older, the other 18 were 23 or younger.

 

[Les Averman]

 

[Appleyard]

Also, looking at the 20/100 players who became top 4 after age 24 in relation to draft position:

Streit: age 31 (262nd pick)
Orpik: age 28 (18th pick)
Boychuk: age 27 (61st pick)
A. Greene: age 27 (Undrafted)
Seidenberg: age 27 (172nd overall)
Martinez: age 27 (95th overall)
Giordano: age 26 (Undrafted)
Campbell: age 26 (156th overall)
Russell: age 26 (67th overall)
Braun: age 26 (201st overall)
Zidlicky: age 26 (176th overall)
Garrison: age 26 (Undrafted)
Kronwall: age 25 (29th overall)
Boyle: age 25 (Undrafted)
Methot: age 25 (168th overall)
Byfuglien: age 25 (245th overall)
Ehrhoff: age 25 (106th overall)
Beauchemin: age 25 (75th overall)
Klein: age 25 (37th overall)
Bieksa: age 25 (151st overall)

2x 1st rounders
1x 2nd rounder
3x 3rd rounders
2x 4th rounders
12x 6th, later or undrafted

Indicating that there is major correlation with the 'late bloomers' being unheralded players until they were over 20. Which makes sense.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Also, looking at the 20/100 players who became top 4 after age 24 in relation to draft position:

Streit: age 31 (262nd pick)
Orpik: age 28 (18th pick)
Boychuk: age 27 (61st pick)
A. Greene: age 27 (Undrafted)
Seidenberg: age 27 (172nd overall)
Martinez: age 27 (95th overall)
Giordano: age 26 (Undrafted)
Campbell: age 26 (156th overall)
Russell: age 26 (67th overall)
Braun: age 26 (201st overall)
Zidlicky: age 26 (176th overall)
Garrison: age 26 (Undrafted)
Kronwall: age 25 (29th overall)
Boyle: age 25 (Undrafted)
Methot: age 25 (168th overall)
Byfuglien: age 25 (245th overall)
Ehrhoff: age 25 (106th overall)
Beauchemin: age 25 (75th overall)
Klein: age 25 (37th overall)
Bieksa: age 25 (151st overall)

2x 1st rounders
1x 2nd rounder
3x 3rd rounders
2x 4th rounders
12x 6th, later or undrafted

Indicating that there is major correlation with the 'late bloomers' being unheralded players until they were over 20. Which makes sense.

Most of those guys were drafted (or eligible to be drafted) prior to the '04 lockout. The philosophy has changed a bit. Not to say you can't find a gem. I still believe its easier to find a top 4 defenseman later in the draft than a top 6 forward.

 

[Appleyard]

Most of those guys were drafted (or eligible to be drafted) prior to the '04 lockout. The philosophy has changed a bit. Not to say you can't find a gem. I still believe its easier to find a top 4 defenseman later in the draft than a top 6 forward.

I think you are probably right... considering less D are taken than forwards % wise D is a better bet for top 4/6.

2006-2011 drafts:

Top 6 Forwards after 3rd:

Benn
Palat
Gaudreau
Nyquist
Perreault
Smith
Lee
Gallagher
Stone
~Shaw
~Bonino

Top 4 Dmen after 3rd:

MacDonald
Martinez
Muzzin
Braun
Spurgeon
Vatanen
Brodie
Savard
Klingberg

My post was really just in relation to the development of D though, tying in with the post above... basically if you drafted a dman in the first few few rounds and he ain't top 4 by the age of 24... he likely never will be.

 

[SchennSational1022*]

Just wondering Appleyard, what was the point cutoff to be considered a #1 in your opinion? Amazing work my friend.

 

[Appleyard]

Just wondering Appleyard, what was the point cutoff to be considered a #1 in your opinion? Amazing work my friend.

That was the hardest thing for me to decide.

I think you have to be a guy capable of ~24 mins a night to begin with. You also have to be capable of carrying a pairing and be a good transition player at EV.

I think 25 points with really elite D can be a #1. (Vlasic)
I think 55+ points with poor D can be a #1. (Yandle)

(but they both have to be good EV puckmovers or I don't think they are.)

Though neither of those groups unless truly generational in offence (Karlsson) or defence (Stevens, mid 90s onwards) can be top tier #1s while either not putting up ~40 points or being poor on D.

But it is a sliding scale measuring up offense and defense...

For me the top tier #1 guys have to:

Be able to play 25+ minutes.
Be able to carry their pairing and at times group of dmen.
Be a 40 point guy.
Be elite defensively.
Be a good puckmover.
Be able to play PP and PK.

 

[FLYguy3911]

My post was really just in relation to the development of D though, tying in with the post above... basically if you drafted a dman in the first few few rounds and he ain't top 4 by the age of 24... he likely never will be.

Gotcha. Wasn't really critiquing, just making an observation. Interesting stuff.

 

[Prongo]

Seems like the Flyers brass will be watching their kids down on the farm tonight.

 

[Cyborg LeClair]

Seems like the Flyers brass will be watching their kids down on the farm tonight.

Had to miss this game cause of a cold, but Hextall has been to a lot of games, especially in the first half of the season. Must be making assessments for next season, anyone know if Martel played tonight?

Also, big thanks to Appleyard for that research. Definitely gives us a better idea of what to expect from our D prospects

 

[Striiker]

Had to miss this game cause of a cold, but Hextall has been to a lot of games, especially in the first half of the season. Must be making assessments for next season, anyone know if Martel played tonight?

Also, big thanks to Appleyard for that research. Definitely gives us a better idea of what to expect from our D prospects

Nope, no Martel.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Martel did not play tonight. They lost 3-0.

 

[Stizzle]

Martel did not play tonight. They lost 3-0.

I caught the 2nd period. It was horrible. Rosehill and Stortini pretty much ruin everything.

 

[Roo Mad Bro]

Phantoms are a snooze. Laughton was the Phantoms best player IMO.

The team is on the PK so ****ing much. Rosehill, Stortini are just continuously in the box.

Boring style, lack of skill/speed/high end prospects = bad hockey.

 

[Hiesenberg]

Phantoms are a snooze. Laughton was the Phantoms best player IMO.

The team is on the PK so ****ing much. Rosehill, Stortini are just continuously in the box.

Boring style, lack of skill/speed/high end prospects = bad hockey.

Hopefully the addition of Morin/Ghost next year will help. I know Kubel & Fazleev can't join, but maybe Goulbourne?

Not sure if Cousins will be back down there, but it seems possible.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

The Phantoms were pretty formidable in the beginning of the season. Ghost and Laughton were looking like elite AHL players so missing them was a huge blow for a big part of the season.

I still think they could/should have gotten into the playoffs. The penalties as mentioned before were a huge problem.

 

[Curufinwe]

The Pens goalie is having an insane season

 

[bennysflyers16]

Be cool to watch Parks tonight again, should be a heck of a game

 

[sa cyred]

Didnt get to see as many games this season for the Phantoms as I have had in the past... But the few I did see, Mathers, Rosehill, and Stortini were all playing.

The AHL is a place where having a meathead fight is still present but man was that some hockey when all three were out at once haha.

 

[deadhead]

Looking at those ages, for top picks you'd expect most defensemen to spend one year in the AHL (20-21) and one year in the NHL before settling into a top 4 role, and for the best, becoming top defensemen in their 2-3rd NFL season.

So Sanheim and Morin are on schedule, Ghost is a little behind schedule due to his ACL, Hagg and Alt are still outside shots at a top 4, and Friedman will probably be one of the "late bloomers."