Proposal: Petry to TOR (trade deadline)

[didimentionlarseller]

Why wouldn’t we? His surgery was back in June and he’s already training off the ice. 6 months is the usual timeline for that type of surgery/recovery

I just don't think it's realistic that Weber will just be back and able to skate etc this season after missing so much time. Not very confident how effective he will be after so much time off. I'm sure next season will basically be back to normal.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Didn’t Hamonic brought back the 12th overall as well as two 2nd? I mean, it’s as close as it gets to two late first. Isn’t it?

I dont think anyone expected the Flames to be as bad as they were when the trade happened. Everyone expected the Flames to make the playoffs so that 1st was not being valued at a 12 overall at the time of the trade.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I would like to see how they are combined all those stats. They used like 20 stats for each category and averaged to 1 stat, Offense or Defense. I dont like black box statistics like that especially when it says Petry is a better defender than Lindholm, Keith, Buff, Letang etc.

For example, how are the applying weighting factors to power play goals for even strength goals and how important are these stats in comparing to HDSC. Nothing is explained.

Well, explain your reasons why you believe popular trends more than someones report who has done his homework? I agree it seems like a stretch to say Petry is a top 15 NHL defenseman but his play on the ice at both ends of the ice is impressive when you dig into it and ignore he plays for the Habs.

Why do you believe in Keith at age 35 and not Weber at age 33? Was it because the Blackhawks had an off year and the Habs didn't?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Sens liquidated EK. Everybody knows it. How about what Patch got which is arguably better than what the Sens got for Karlsson? Does a sign and trade value add up to a Pending UFA value for a better player all the time in every trade? What about the return the Sharks and Panthers got for Hoffman? How about Skinner who had a NMC?

Petry is playing the best hockey of his career and has matured into a very good top 4D. Some say a very solid #3 guy. If he was a UFA today, he gets paid more than his 3 years at $5.5M cap hit

I think the Montreal got an amazing return for Patches and Golden knights made a terrible idea moving Tatar as essentially a cap dump. Sold way too early on him.

However these are forwards your bringing up so I'm not sure how they are related. Especially as Skinner/Hoffman got traded for way less value than 1st+Lily+.

I agree, I think Petry is a good #3D, where I disagree is saying he is good value for 5.5 million and that he is close to a top 15D in the league like you said in your other post.

A trade for Petry means Gardiner is gone, I have mo interest in losing Gardiner+1st+Lily for Petry.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Well, explain your reasons why you believe popular trends more than someones report who has done his homework? I agree it seems like a stretch to say Petry is a top 15 NHL defenseman but his play on the ice at both ends of the ice is impressive when you dig into it and ignore he plays for the Habs.

Why do you believe in Keith at age 35 and not Weber at age 33? Was it because the Blackhawks had an off year and the Habs didn't?

I didnt include Weber as he missed a ton of time in the 3 years they used as an average. I think Weber is still a better defender but he wasn't even on the list of players behind Petry. All the players I listed were on that list but ranked worse than Petry.

I dont trust 'reports' that dont show their mathematics at all and then subsequently use it exclusively to rank players.

As I said in other post, I do like Petry. Think he is a good #3 but he is far from 'great value'

 

[Captain Mountain]

Depends where he signs next. If he wants to stay a leaf likely under 6 million.

Using a contract signed this upcoming summer and comparing that to a contract signed in 2015 doesn't make the most sense to me. I know what your getting at but I dont think Jeff Petry at 5.5 million is 'great value' at all. He is close to the top 25 paid defenders in the league and i dont think he is a top 25 defender at all.

There's a difference between contracts covering UFA and RFA years. And your opinion on Petry has no bearing on his impacts or performance.

And it'll be a coup if Toronto gets Gardiner under 6, he can probably get 7+ in the open market.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think the Montreal got an amazing return for Patches and Golden knights made a terrible idea moving Tatar as essentially a cap dump. Sold way too early on him.

However these are forwards your bringing up so I'm not sure how they are related. Especially as Skinner/Hoffman got traded for way less value than 1st+Lily+.

I agree, I think Petry is a good #3D, where I disagree is saying he is good value for 5.5 million and that he is close to a top 15D in the league like you said in your other post.

A trade for Petry means Gardiner is gone, I have mo interest in losing Gardiner+1st+Lily for Petry.

You don't have to like the report but the homework was done on it and Petry falls at 13th. Weather we like it or not, Petry has earned his production on the ice. Leafs don't need offensive defenseman, they need reliable two way guys who are solid in their own end. Not sure why you are so tied to Gardiner... you don't need his offensive game and you need someone much better in his own end. Doesn't have to be Petry but it has to be someone similar.

 

[member 157595]

There's a difference between contracts covering UFA and RFA years. And your opinion on Petry has no bearing on his impacts or performance.

And it'll be a coup if Toronto gets Gardiner under 6, he can probably get 7+ in the open market.

The thought of Jake Gardiner at >= $7M/year makes me want to shit and vomit at the same time.

I don't hate him but...barf.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

There's a difference between contracts covering UFA and RFA years. And your opinion on Petry has no bearing on his impacts or performance.

And it'll be a coup if Toronto gets Gardiner under 6, he can probably get 7+ in the open market.

I realize that and if you compare what Gardiner signs for as a percentage of the cap compared to what Petry signed in 2015 I bet it will be pretty damn close.

I do think Gardiner could get a 7x7 deal if a team was really desperate. However like I said if he wants to stay a leaf, he likely has to sign for around 6 million a year.

 

[Captain Mountain]

The thought of Jake Gardiner at >= $7M/year makes me want to **** and vomit at the same time.

I don't hate him but...barf.

UFAs generally get paid big money, RFAs generally get underpaid. That's just how it works.

Gardiner is an excellent D-man and teams that need help at LHD would absolutely pay for him. He's the best LHD available next free agency period.

He might not sign for 7+ (since he wants to win too), but under 6 is pretty unlikely too. Especially when you look at what guys like Shattenkirk and Yandle got.

 

[Danny1237]

Yeah, I understood what you meant. While it fix a big hole in Toronto’s D, their current assets available aren’t really interesting for us unless Sandin progress and is made available.

Yeah, I think people just want to find that perfect solution when doing hypothetical trades, where team A is deep on D and team B is deep on F, and there is a deal to be had, but in reality, there are very seldom trades like that.

Leafs fans are constantly looking to trade Nylander for a D, which sounds nice, but what team is so deep on RHD that they have a high end one they are willing to move?

Hamilton moved, but Calgary wanted a LHD back in that trade because they weren't deep enough to simply move a D for a forward.

In this case, I think unless Montreal is trading Petry for mostly picks, chances are a team that is deeper in D prospects, and is a little more under the gun would make more sense. Dallas likely wants to push for the playoffs this year, and Heiskanen might make them more willing to move on from Honka. Calgary lost Hamonic for a bit, and he hasn't been that great for them, so maybe they would be willing to move Andersen. Those teams being out west probably makes the deal even more favourable for Montreal, and those teams can probably afford the cost a little better (or at least may be more willing to pay it for different reasons).

 

[Ziggdiezan]

You don't have to like the report but the homework was done on it and Petry falls at 13th. Weather we like it or not, Petry has earned his production on the ice. Leafs don't need offensive defenseman, they need reliable two way guys who are solid in their own end. Not sure why you are so tied to Gardiner... you don't need his offensive game and you need someone much better in his own end. Doesn't have to be Petry but it has to be someone similar.

It is very dubious to not include your work in a 'report'. How do I know they did their homework? They didnt show it at all and so their mathematical model could be complete BS. It is important to read things critically and not just assume it is correct because it is on sportsnet. Especially when their results dont line up with what I've seen, what other stats say etc.

Gardiner was in the like top 5 in the entire NHL for total ES ice time. Hasnt he earned his ice time too? Gardiner gets a bad rap because people have a confirmation bias and ignore everything he does good to soley focus on the 1 or 2 bad plays he makes a game.

Leafs would surely miss his offensive play. Need mobile creative defenders like Gardiner to get the pucks to the stacked offense. I have a feeling Gardiner+Z will be one of the better 2nd pairings in the NHL this year.

Edit: I do agree the Leafs should be looking to add a defensive defender in their top 4 to bump Hainsey down.

 

[member 157595]

UFAs generally get paid big money, RFAs generally get underpaid. That's just how it works.

Gardiner is an excellent D-man and teams that need help at LHD would absolutely pay for him. He's the best LHD available next free agency period.

He might not sign for 7+ (since he wants to win too), but under 6 is pretty unlikely too. Especially when you look at what guys like Shattenkirk and Yandle got.

Oh don't get me wrong, I 100% agree with you that he can get that money. No question.

He's a good player who gets unfairly maligned. But when he's bad he's REALLY f***ING BAD.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If it very dubious to not include your work in a 'report'. How do I know they did their homework? They didnt show it at all and so their mathematical model could be complete BS. It is important to read things critically and not just assume it is correct because it is on sportsnet. Especially when their results dont line up with what I've seen, what other stats say etc.

Gardiner was in the like top 5 in the entire NHL for total ES ice time. Hasnt he earned his ice time too? Gardiner gets a bad rap because people have a confirmation bias and ignore everything he does good to soley focus on the 1 or 2 bad plays he makes a game.

Leafs would surely miss his offensive play. Need mobile creative defenders like Gardiner to get the pucks to the stacked offense. I have a feeling Gardiner+Z will be one of the better 2nd pairings in the NHL this year.

Edit: I do agree the Leafs should be looking to add a defensive defender in their top 4 to bump Hainsey down.

He clearly explains a lot on how he came up with his conclusions. You simply don't like it. How about you stick your neck out and write your own article with this much substance?

"Here are the statistics used in each category:

Offence: 5-on-5 and power play goals, primary assists, secondary assists, high danger scoring chances, scoring chances, passes to the slot, scoring chances off the rush, passes off the rush, offensive zone passes, rebound recoveries, scoring chance generating plays, shot attempts, penalties drawn, on-ice goals for relative to teammates (all per 60 minutes), and offensive zone pass completion rate.

Transition: 5-on-5 outlet passes, stretch passes, controlled carries out of the defensive zone, neutral zone passes forward and east-west, controlled entries into the offensive zone (all per 60 minutes), Corsi for percentage, Corsi for percentage relative to teammates, controlled exit rate relative to teammates, controlled entry rate relative to teammates, outlet, stretch, and neutral zone pass completion rates relative to teammates.

Defence: 5-on-5 and shorthanded loose puck recoveries by zone, defensive zone non-dump in loose puck recoveries, blocked passes, stick checks, body checks, blocked shots, puck battles won, puck battles won percentage, controlled entries against, odd-man rushes against, total zone clearances, penalties taken, on-ice goals against relative to teammates, on-ice shot attempts against relative to teammates, on-ice passes to the slot against relative to teammates, on-ice high danger chances against relative to teammates (all per 60 minutes), turnover rate by zone relative to teammates.

Degree of difficulty: Puck IQ’s competition faced percentages (2016-17 only), Game Score’s quality of forwards faced, Game Score’s quality of defencemen faced, Game Score’s quality of teammate forwards, Game Score’s quality of teammate defencemen, Corsi quality of competition, Corsi quality of teammates, time on ice quality of competition, time on ice quality of teammates, personal shooting percentage relative to career average, on-ice shooting percentage, on-ice save percentage, defensive zone starts percentage, 5-on-5 ice time, and overall ice time per game.
There’s a slight change to the charts this year as well, as I’ll be showing how players rank both in percentile form — a straight up ‘what percentage of their peers are they ahead of” — and also the percentage that the player impacts a category compared to the best player at their position, which I’m calling per cent of peak. For example Josh Manson’s offensive impact is 44.5 per cent of"


https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/players/brent-burns/229384

 

[Captain Mountain]

Oh don't get me wrong, I 100% agree with you that he can get that money. No question.

He's a good player who gets unfairly maligned. But when he's bad he's REALLY ****ING BAD.

That's definitely true, and he's more prone to it than elite guys, but every PMD in the league has some absolute clunkers. If Gardiner had a lot fewer brainfarts, he'd be elite and worth a hell of a lot more than 7 mil.

 

[Captain Mountain]

I realize that and if you compare what Gardiner signs for as a percentage of the cap compared to what Petry signed in 2015 I bet it will be pretty damn close.

I do think Gardiner could get a 7x7 deal if a team was really desperate. However like I said if he wants to stay a leaf, he likely has to sign for around 6 million a year.

Odds are he wont be Leaf if the cap to his AAV is below 6. Other contending teams could beat that easily. And I doubt that's the cap to his AAV in Toronto too.

Petry signed at 7.7% of the cap. Assuming a 3 mil increase in the cap (which is neither conservative or optimistic), a comparable AAV for Gardiner next offseason is around 6.35 mil. Which would actually be a cheap when you look at even more recent UFA PMD (Yandle, Shattenkirk, Carlson)

 

[Ziggdiezan]

He clearly explains a lot on how he came up with his conclusions. You simply don't like it. How about you stick your neck out and write your own article with this much substance?

"Here are the statistics used in each category:

Offence: 5-on-5 and power play goals, primary assists, secondary assists, high danger scoring chances, scoring chances, passes to the slot, scoring chances off the rush, passes off the rush, offensive zone passes, rebound recoveries, scoring chance generating plays, shot attempts, penalties drawn, on-ice goals for relative to teammates (all per 60 minutes), and offensive zone pass completion rate.

Transition: 5-on-5 outlet passes, stretch passes, controlled carries out of the defensive zone, neutral zone passes forward and east-west, controlled entries into the offensive zone (all per 60 minutes), Corsi for percentage, Corsi for percentage relative to teammates, controlled exit rate relative to teammates, controlled entry rate relative to teammates, outlet, stretch, and neutral zone pass completion rates relative to teammates.

Defence: 5-on-5 and shorthanded loose puck recoveries by zone, defensive zone non-dump in loose puck recoveries, blocked passes, stick checks, body checks, blocked shots, puck battles won, puck battles won percentage, controlled entries against, odd-man rushes against, total zone clearances, penalties taken, on-ice goals against relative to teammates, on-ice shot attempts against relative to teammates, on-ice passes to the slot against relative to teammates, on-ice high danger chances against relative to teammates (all per 60 minutes), turnover rate by zone relative to teammates.

Degree of difficulty: Puck IQ’s competition faced percentages (2016-17 only), Game Score’s quality of forwards faced, Game Score’s quality of defencemen faced, Game Score’s quality of teammate forwards, Game Score’s quality of teammate defencemen, Corsi quality of competition, Corsi quality of teammates, time on ice quality of competition, time on ice quality of teammates, personal shooting percentage relative to career average, on-ice shooting percentage, on-ice save percentage, defensive zone starts percentage, 5-on-5 ice time, and overall ice time per game.
There’s a slight change to the charts this year as well, as I’ll be showing how players rank both in percentile form — a straight up ‘what percentage of their peers are they ahead of” — and also the percentage that the player impacts a category compared to the best player at their position, which I’m calling per cent of peak. For example Josh Manson’s offensive impact is 44.5 per cent of"

I understand that, but how is he combining these stats to get the 4 main catagerogies (Offense, Tranistion, Defense and Difficulty) he uses to rate all the players.

For example, he ranks all the players in each stat relative to the peers by putting it in terms of percentiles. When he is constructing the offense stat for a player how important is power play goals compared to even strength goals, or even strength goals vs HDSC.

Are they just ranking a player as a percentile for each of the stats that make up each category and then just taking a simple avarage? Or are they weighing certain stats to be more important and therefore having a larger weighing factor relative to other stats? For example are even strength goals as important to the average as rebound recoveries (do they get weighted equally)?

The author also writes
"The weighting of the categories for defencemen remains the same as last season: 25 for offence, 40 for transition and 35 for defence, though there are new statistics added and the difficulty of minutes adjustment has been changed."

This has a huge bias in it because the total stat they are using to rank the defenseman is based on the Authors opinion on what makes the best defender. They think that Tranistion is very important followed by defense a close 2nd and offense a distant third. Regardless if you think that is true that is a big assumption with no validation other than their opinion. What is also interesting is that we see the highest paid defenders often possessing the best offensive tools which is contradictory to how the author creates their model by not highly rating offense at all.

I'm not getting paid to write an article I could post nor do I have the clout in the hockey community to receive any attention. Then there is the lack of time. Thinking critically about the articles you read is a good thing.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Odds are he wont be Leaf if the cap to his AAV is below 6. Other contending teams could beat that easily. And I doubt that's the cap to his AAV in Toronto too.

Petry signed at 7.7% of the cap. Assuming a 3 mil increase in the cap (which is neither conservative or optimistic), a comparable AAV for Gardiner next offseason is around 6.35 mil. Which would actually be a cheap when you look at even more recent UFA PMD (Yandle, Shattenkirk, Carlson)

Yup I unfortunately dont think the leafs will be able to keep Jake if Willy signs for north of 7. Will be a big loss.

That comparable AAV on a 7 year contract would be right on the money. The players you compared him to arent really similar. Shattenkirk only signed for 4 years for 150k more, Yandle signed in 2016 so I would have to look what his relative cap hit would be and he had a much longer track record than Gardiner. Carlson signed an 8x8 which is way more than a 6.35x7 so I'm not sure why you included him.


However are you putting Gardiner in the same category as Yandle, Shattenkirk and Carlson? As leaf fans would get crucified if they posted stuff like that lol.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Yup I unfortunately dont think the leafs will be able to keep Jake if Willy signs for north of 7. Will be a big loss.

That comparable AAV on a 7 year contract would be right on the money. The players you compared him to arent really similar. Shattenkirk only signed for 4 years for 150k more, Yandle signed in 2016 so I would have to look what his relative cap hit would be and he had a much longer track record than Gardiner. Carlson signed an 8x8 which is way more than a 6.35x7 so I'm not sure why you included him.


However are you putting Gardiner in the same category as Yandle, Shattenkirk and Carlson? As leaf fans would get crucified if they posted stuff like that lol.

Carlson signed for 8x8 but I believe he took a hometown discount. It wouldn’t far fetched to say that he could have gotten close to 9M/year on the open market.

Both Shattenkirk (when traded to Wash) and Yandle (NYR) had a terrible post-season on their contract year, which might have hurt their value a little bit.

If Gardiner takes a hometown discount to stay in Toronto, I could see something signed at ~6.3/7-8 years while on the open market he could probably get ~7M/6-7 years.

Smart thing to do for the Leafs if Dermott keep progressing this year would be to acquire a top 4 RHD and let Gardiner walk but it’s easier said than done

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yup I unfortunately dont think the leafs will be able to keep Jake if Willy signs for north of 7. Will be a big loss.

That comparable AAV on a 7 year contract would be right on the money. The players you compared him to arent really similar. Shattenkirk only signed for 4 years for 150k more, Yandle signed in 2016 so I would have to look what his relative cap hit would be and he had a much longer track record than Gardiner. Carlson signed an 8x8 which is way more than a 6.35x7 so I'm not sure why you included him.


However are you putting Gardiner in the same category as Yandle, Shattenkirk and Carlson? As leaf fans would get crucified if they posted stuff like that lol.

If we're talking about more than just AAV, then lets bring this back around to Petry (the guy this thread is about). The equivalent contract next offseason is around 6.35x6, not 6.35x7.

And my point is that Shattenkirk and Yandle have similar or higher AAV under a smaller cap.

As for categories, I think they're all in the same range (decent #1D/good #2D). I think Carlson is clearly better, but the margin isn't massive. I think all of Yandle, Shattenkirk and Gardiner fit the same mold of a D that's strong in transition and generates offense, but has defensive flaws. Yandle and Shattenkirk are better offensively, but Gardiner is better defensively compared to Shattenkirk and Yandle is older and I think Gardiner is better in transition compared to Yandle. I don't think its an unreasonable comparison.

The Leafs D I'm more critical of is Rielly (not that I think Gardiner is better, but I think the gap between the two isn't large).

 

[Ziggdiezan]

If we're talking about more than just AAV, then lets bring this back around to Petry (the guy this thread is about). The equivalent contract next offseason is around 6.35x6, not 6.35x7.

And my point is that Shattenkirk and Yandle have similar or higher AAV under a smaller cap.

As for categories, I think they're all in the same range (decent #1D/good #2D). I think Carlson is clearly better, but the margin isn't massive. I think all of Yandle, Shattenkirk and Gardiner fit the same mold of a D that's strong in transition and generates offense, but has defensive flaws. Yandle and Shattenkirk are better offensively, but Gardiner is better defensively compared to Shattenkirk and Yandle is older and I think Gardiner is better in transition compared to Yandle. I don't think its an unreasonable comparison.

The Leafs D I'm more critical of is Rielly (not that I think Gardiner is better, but I think the gap between the two isn't large).

Agreed about the equivalent contract for this upcoming year, however teams usually overpay for UFA and live to regret it. My originally point was Jeff Petry at 5.5 million isn't great value, it is fair but certainly not great value.

Ya but Shattenkirk had a slightly higher AAV but only 4 years so I dont think he was a great comparable if your talking about a long term contract.

I don't think it is a bad comparison either. It is just interesting to me as this website is full of Gardiner hating so to read a non leaf fan saying he is a top pairing guy essentially is interesting. I think he is a #2/#3 and would drastically improve with a suitable partner which he has never had.

Rielly has been lugging Hainsey around for a few months going to the end of last year. Try to specifically watch Rielly if your watching leaf games. The way he picks up the puck and drives at the opposing team is a joy to watch.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I understand that, but how is he combining these stats to get the 4 main catagerogies (Offense, Tranistion, Defense and Difficulty) he uses to rate all the players.

For example, he ranks all the players in each stat relative to the peers by putting it in terms of percentiles. When he is constructing the offense stat for a player how important is power play goals compared to even strength goals, or even strength goals vs HDSC.

Are they just ranking a player as a percentile for each of the stats that make up each category and then just taking a simple avarage? Or are they weighing certain stats to be more important and therefore having a larger weighing factor relative to other stats? For example are even strength goals as important to the average as rebound recoveries (do they get weighted equally)?

The author also writes
"The weighting of the categories for defencemen remains the same as last season: 25 for offence, 40 for transition and 35 for defence, though there are new statistics added and the difficulty of minutes adjustment has been changed."

This has a huge bias in it because the total stat they are using to rank the defenseman is based on the Authors opinion on what makes the best defender. They think that Tranistion is very important followed by defense a close 2nd and offense a distant third. Regardless if you think that is true that is a big assumption with no validation other than their opinion. What is also interesting is that we see the highest paid defenders often possessing the best offensive tools which is contradictory to how the author creates their model by not highly rating offense at all.

I'm not getting paid to write an article I could post nor do I have the clout in the hockey community to receive any attention. Then there is the lack of time. Thinking critically about the articles you read is a good thing.

Well his system has Karlsson, Doughty, Subban as the top 3. Burns 7th, Hedman 12th. Aside from an opinion straight out our asses where we put Hedman and Burns in the top 5 (most would), it's interesting to see how his approach compares to the "popular trends" where points is usually the sole focus.

It is a 3 year sample size and an eye opener to many of us. Is he wrong or wright? None of us can say for sure cause we likely did not break it down in detail like he did. So if you want to criticize, I welcome your system and for you to do your homework and share with us? Until then, you should respect someone doing this type of research to support a ranking.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Well his system has Karlsson, Doughty, Subban as the top 3. Burns 7th, Hedman 12th. Aside from an opinion straight out our asses where we put Hedman and Burns in the top 5 (most would), it's interesting to see how his approach compares to the "popular trends" where points is usually the sole focus.

100% agree that it is an interesting read and their model predicts some of the best defenders being the best so that is a good thing. Dont think Subban is top 3 though especially considering his pairing doesn't take the top matchups. I dont put Burns in the top 3 either (he got 61.5% oZS at ES last year, that is crazy and doesn't take the tough matchups either)

I just would like to know a little more about how they are using their data before I use it to definitively rank players. Especially when you have huge outliers like Petry as the 13th best defender in the league.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Yeah, I think people just want to find that perfect solution when doing hypothetical trades, where team A is deep on D and team B is deep on F, and there is a deal to be had, but in reality, there are very seldom trades like that.

Leafs fans are constantly looking to trade Nylander for a D, which sounds nice, but what team is so deep on RHD that they have a high end one they are willing to move?

Hamilton moved, but Calgary wanted a LHD back in that trade because they weren't deep enough to simply move a D for a forward.

In this case, I think unless Montreal is trading Petry for mostly picks, chances are a team that is deeper in D prospects, and is a little more under the gun would make more sense. Dallas likely wants to push for the playoffs this year, and Heiskanen might make them more willing to move on from Honka. Calgary lost Hamonic for a bit, and he hasn't been that great for them, so maybe they would be willing to move Andersen. Those teams being out west probably makes the deal even more favourable for Montreal, and those teams can probably afford the cost a little better (or at least may be more willing to pay it for different reasons).

I couldn’t agree more. Montreal has to have one the deepest depth in the NHL at RHD with Weber, Petry, Juulsen and Brook and that is worth something.

To me, this year is a wait-and-see kind of year. Let’s see who develops, who take a step forward in their progression and who take a step back. Re-asses at the draft where you know your team strength and weakness and act on it. Obviously, Petry is the odd man out because of his current age and contract and value. I still don’t know what I would want for Petry but in a perfect world, I would get a young asset on a position of need (depending on who we plan to draft and who developed/regressed) and a (first round) draft pick.

I bet a lot of team will be bidding for Petry’s service and we should get a solid return. I’m really excited with the way Bergevin has turned the ship around since the last TDL and where the team is going.

Hopefully we will be able to finally see Montreal - Boston - Toronto all competitive at the same time. Hockey is fun, rivalry is funier but there’s nothing better than competing hard in the playoff against your biggest ennemies

 

[Captain Mountain]

Agreed about the equivalent contract for this upcoming year, however teams usually overpay for UFA and live to regret it. My originally point was Jeff Petry at 5.5 million isn't great value, it is fair but certainly not great value.

Its all relative. But I put UFA and RFA contracts in separate categories. Petry is well worth his contract and its good value for a UFA.

For example, Tavares took slightly less money to sign in Toronto, his contract certainly isn't great value, but its a good UFA contract.

Ya but Shattenkirk had a slightly higher AAV but only 4 years so I dont think he was a great comparable if your talking about a long term contract.

I'm looking at AAV primarily, but I don't think its unlikely that Shattenkirk could have gotten more term at that AAV from someone else.

I don't think it is a bad comparison either. It is just interesting to me as this website is full of Gardiner hating so to read a non leaf fan saying he is a top pairing guy essentially is interesting. I think he is a #2/#3 and would drastically improve with a suitable partner which he has never had.

A lot of the Gardiner hating I read comes from Leafs fans, so I get why other fans draw on that. It happens with imperfect players on all teams with massive fanbases.

The other side of it is probably when people post stuff like this:

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/jake-gardiner-the-nhls-most-underrated-defensmen.2364235/

Rielly has been lugging Hainsey around for a few months going to the end of last year. Try to specifically watch Rielly if your watching leaf games. The way he picks up the puck and drives at the opposing team is a joy to watch.

I live in Toronto and with the Habs being absolute ****, watch a lot of Leafs. Rielly is definitely great in transition and offense, but for him to be a top D-man, it would be nice to see him tighten up a lot defensively. Truly great D-men (#1 D) can and do drag around bad D partners with better results and impacts.