Salary Cap: Pens Salary and Signing thread: Dr StrangeDubas or How We Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Karlsson Watch

[3ladesof5teel]

Zucker has also scored the same amount of goals in his career in 100 less games then Smith with him laboring here with his groin injury for 1/2 his time

 

[Empoleon8771]

Zucker has also scored the same amount of goals in his career in 100 less games then Smith with him laboring here with his groin injury for 1/2 his time

Why does Reilly Smith's production from 2011-2015 have any sort of relevance to the caliber of player they are in 2023?

Smith has been a better offensive player for literally 5 straight years. They both score the same amount of goals while Smith gets more points.

 

[Empoleon8771]

And if you want to judge by goal totals:

2022-2023: 27 goals in 78 games for Zucker, 26 goals in 78 games for Smith
2021-2022: 8 goals in 41 games for Zucker, 16 goals in 56 games for Smith
2020-2021: 9 goals in 38 games for Zucker, 14 goals in 53 games for Smith
2019-2020: 20 goals in 60 games for Zucker, 27 goals in 71 games for Smith
2018-2019: 21 goals in 81 games for Zucker, 19 goals in 74 games for Smith

Total: 85 goals in 298 games for Zucker (pace of 23 goals per 82 games), 102 goals in 332 games for Smith (pace of 25 goals per 82 games)

I find it downright bizarre that people can look at the data and conclude "Smith is a poor goal scorer" or "Zucker is a better goal scorer than Smith". Even in Zucker's resurgence season after having bad goal totals in 3 of the previous 4 years, he beat Smith by a total of 1 goal.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

Why does Reilly Smith's production from 2011-2015 have any sort of relevance to the caliber of player they are in 2023?

Smith has been a better offensive player for literally 5 straight years. They both score the same amount of goals while Smith gets more points.

If you read my initial post you might understand my point. Zucker does things that Smith doesn't so IMO it's not much of an upgrade. And we won't see much difference between the two if your banking on an upgrade

Many knights fans talked of Smith slowing down so he was relegated down the lineup at times. We will see

 

[Empoleon8771]

If you ready initial post you might understand my point. Zucker does things that Smith doesn't so IMO it's not much of an upgrade. And we won't see much difference between the two if your banking on an upgrade

Many knights fans talked of Smith slowing down so he was relegated down the lineup at times. We will see

What are those things? Zucker throws more hits and is a better net front guy, that's about it.

In terms of production, it should be an upgrade because Smith should be sitting in the 50-60 point range while Zucker hasn't hit 50 points in 6 years. In a season where Smith was "slowing down", he still had a 2.06 5v5 points/60, which equaled Zucker's season in 2022-2023. Which was by far his best season in years.

I think this is more you overrating Zucker than underrating Smith. Zucker wasn't that good for the Penguins last year.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

And if you want to judge by goal totals:

2022-2023: 27 goals in 78 games for Zucker, 26 goals in 78 games for Smith
2021-2022: 8 goals in 41 games for Zucker, 16 goals in 56 games for Smith
2020-2021: 9 goals in 38 games for Zucker, 14 goals in 53 games for Smith
2019-2020: 20 goals in 60 games for Zucker, 27 goals in 71 games for Smith
2018-2019: 21 goals in 81 games for Zucker, 19 goals in 74 games for Smith

Total: 85 goals in 298 games for Zucker (pace of 23 goals per 82 games), 102 goals in 332 games for Smith (pace of 25 goals per 82 games)

I find it downright bizarre that people can look at the data and conclude "Smith is a poor goal scorer" or "Zucker is a better goal scorer than Smith". Even in Zucker's resurgence season after having bad goal totals in 3 of the previous 4 years, he beat Smith by a total of 1 goal.

You looking at data that should have an astrik.

You "data" people fail to recognize things that can throw that data all off.
Zucker from 20-22 was dealing with an injury and musical chairs of common linemates who were injured themselves. It's actually impressive he was able to do what he did during that time.

It's not all about the data all the time. It only tells part of the story.

 

[Ulf5]

For like the 5th time, Smith has out-scored Zucker in every single season since 2017-2018. And in that season, the only reason Zucker outscored him is because Smith missed 15 games. That was Zucker's career year, he had 33 goals and 64 points in 82 games compared to 22 goals and 60 points in 67 games for Smith.

Over that 6 years window, the two players have nearly identical goal totals (124 goals in 399 games for Smith, 118 goals in 380 games for Zucker). Smith gets way more assists, kills more penalties and has better on-ice results.

Not to mention, Smith is head and shoulders the better playoffs scorer. Oh wait, we never making the playoffs again. I'm not doing it right.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think there is a sector of Penguins fans who go way overboard with how good Zucker was last year. He outscored Rust by 1 point and everyone said Rust was awful last year. He had 37 5v5 points, which is absolutely good but was also like 70th in the NHL. He was 98th in the NHL in terms of 5v5 points/60, among players who played in more than 200 minutes last year. Smith was 97th in rate and 95th in production (3 fewer 5v5 points) for comparison.

Zucker definitely had a good year, no one can deny that. But that was just it, it was a good year. It was a good year that Reilly Smith has done or exceeded multiple times in the last 6 years.

You looking at data that should have an astrik.

You "data" people fail to recognize things that can throw that data all off.
Zucker from 20-22 was dealing with an injury and musical chairs of common linemates who were injured themselves. It's actually impressive he was able to do what he did during that time.

It's not all about the data all the time. It only tells part of the story.

How do you have any knowledge whether Smith dealt with that as well?

This really just sounds like you're super overrating Zucker and are trying to work backwards from that conclusion.

 

[dingo71]

I hear you on a lot of these fronts, but I do take issue with the idea that Dubas is not trying to get younger. Eller is really the only "older" player he acquired. I would have preferred someone like Morgan Geekie or Michael McLeod, but we don't know if they were ever a possibility. I certainly prefer Eller over Blueger or Kampf. AND, Dubas did acquire a young No. 3 center...Brayden Yager. It may take a few years, but he could slide into that spot. Poulin is also still here (for now).

He has moved out one future asset, just one. The pick we had acquired for Blueger turned into Reilly Smith. That is a win. Is Smith older than Zucker? Absolutely. He is also better in my humble opinion. Far more reliable and proven when it matters most. He is a great addition. Also, Graves is younger than Dumoulin and much needed for this soft roster. He will make an impact. Ditto Acciari, who is a massive upgrade over Archibald.

Nieto is meh, but so was Heinen. Nieto fits the checking line much better. Not sure he makes the team, since guys like O'Connor and Johnsson may beat him out. Johnsson looks like the type of reclamation project Dubas was talking about. Overall, we have improved the bottom six (is it enough? Maybe not). Especially if guys like Nylander, Puustinen, Poulin and O'Connor are given more opportunities. That will be key.

There is no point in moving Carter. He has the NMC and he is finishing his contract this season (and likely his career). Playing under 10 minutes a game should help him. If his line (the fourth) becomes more of a depth scoring line, that could help the team. Also, if he sits out some games, we have the players to replace him...maybe even Poulin? Carter still has some value on special teams, imo. As for Petry and Granlund, clearly Dubas is TRYING to move both of them. Will he succeed? I don't know, there seems to be gridlock with most NHL teams right now. I do suspect someone will be shipped out.

In terms of Jarry, Dubas picked a goaltender and went with it. At least he chose a 27-year-old with some untapped upside. And, he covered himself by adding depth. Quality depth. I think Nedeljkovic will turn out to be one of the best signings of this summer. For me, he is a big upgrade over DeSmith. And he is another goaltender with untapped upside.

If Dubas is done with the off-season, then for sure it will be disappointing. But, the good news is he kept most of our future assets.

I think it is time to pivot away from Karlsson and start looking for other impact player possibilities. I still think he has talked to the Rangers this off-season about Lafreniere, and I think he should continue to pursue that. I would also like him to maybe sign someone like Jesper Boqvist, who played some with Johnsson in NJ and has some untapped upside. He is quite versatile, too.

Until Dubas gives me a reason to dislike what his plan is, I will continue to support it. It does feel like that is a slippery slope, though.

Agree with just about all of this but I’m staying on Karlsson until he’s traded. The Penguins need a home run acquisition (and a lot of luck) for another deep playoff run and he’s the only guy on the market that fits that bill. Hanifin is a solid player who would make us better, but not enough IMO.

I love the idea of Laf but I don’t think there’s any chance NY gives their former first overall pick a chance to break out on a division rival.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

I think there is a sector of Penguins fans who go way overboard with how good Zucker was last year. He outscored Rust by 1 point and everyone said Rust was awful last year. He had 37 5v5 points, which is absolutely good but was also like 70th in the NHL. He was 98th in the NHL in terms of 5v5 points/60, among players who played in more than 200 minutes last year. Smith was 97th in rate and 95th in production (3 fewer 5v5 points) for comparison.

Zucker definitely had a good year, no one can deny that. But that was just it, it was a good year. It was a good year that Reilly Smith has done or exceeded multiple times in the last 6 years.



How do you have any knowledge whether Smith dealt with that as well?

This really just sounds like you're super overrating Zucker and are trying to work backwards from that conclusion.

I said that I think people are going to be disappointed that Reilly Smith isn't going to be that much of a difference maker to our top 6.
You come in after 3 minutes of my post and act like your Reilly Smiths mom and I'm dogging him. I'm not overrating anyone.
I just said it won't be much of difference. Zucker was healthy last year and had a great season. IMO a healthy Zucker would put up very similar numbers. Let's see what Smith does

 

[Ulf5]

I hear you on a lot of these fronts, but I do take issue with the idea that Dubas is not trying to get younger. Eller is really the only "older" player he acquired. I would have preferred someone like Morgan Geekie or Michael McLeod, but we don't know if they were ever a possibility. I certainly prefer Eller over Blueger or Kampf. AND, Dubas did acquire a young No. 3 center...Brayden Yager. It may take a few years, but he could slide into that spot. Poulin is also still here (for now).

He has moved out one future asset, just one. The pick we had acquired for Blueger turned into Reilly Smith. That is a win. Is Smith older than Zucker? Absolutely. He is also better in my humble opinion. Far more reliable and proven when it matters most. He is a great addition. Also, Graves is younger than Dumoulin and much needed for this soft roster. He will make an impact. Ditto Acciari, who is a massive upgrade over Archibald.

Nieto is meh, but so was Heinen. Nieto fits the checking line much better. Not sure he makes the team, since guys like O'Connor and Johnsson may beat him out. Johnsson looks like the type of reclamation project Dubas was talking about. Overall, we have improved the bottom six (is it enough? Maybe not). Especially if guys like Nylander, Puustinen, Poulin and O'Connor are given more opportunities. That will be key.

There is no point in moving Carter. He has the NMC and he is finishing his contract this season (and likely his career). Playing under 10 minutes a game should help him. If his line (the fourth) becomes more of a depth scoring line, that could help the team. Also, if he sits out some games, we have the players to replace him...maybe even Poulin? Carter still has some value on special teams, imo. As for Petry and Granlund, clearly Dubas is TRYING to move both of them. Will he succeed? I don't know, there seems to be gridlock with most NHL teams right now. I do suspect someone will be shipped out.

In terms of Jarry, Dubas picked a goaltender and went with it. At least he chose a 27-year-old with some untapped upside. And, he covered himself by adding depth. Quality depth. I think Nedeljkovic will turn out to be one of the best signings of this summer. For me, he is a big upgrade over DeSmith. And he is another goaltender with untapped upside.

If Dubas is done with the off-season, then for sure it will be disappointing. But, the good news is he kept most of our future assets.

I think it is time to pivot away from Karlsson and start looking for other impact player possibilities. I still think he has talked to the Rangers this off-season about Lafreniere, and I think he should continue to pursue that. I would also like him to maybe sign someone like Jesper Boqvist, who played some with Johnsson in NJ and has some untapped upside. He is quite versatile, too.

Until Dubas gives me a reason to dislike what his plan is, I will continue to support it. It does feel like that is a slippery slope, though.

I'm not thrilled with Jarry. But Boston wants to bring both goalies back according to Sweeney. Hellebuyck hasn't been traded. What other options were there? That were clear cut better?
It seems Dubas is trying to insulate Jarry though. He hired someone new for the medical staff. All the forwards brought in are good defensively. A pylon should be an improvement on Dumoulin as should Graves.
Will it all help minimize Jarry's cratering? Only time will tell.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Smith is a good pickup but many of you are going to be reeeeaaallly disappointed thinking he is that much better than Zucker that it's going to be much of a difference maker.

I am fine with not resigning Zucker but replacing him with Smith isn't pushing us any further than we were last year with our top 6.

It's still solid but we lack the player that we really need there who will create and drive a line if we want it to be better.

I'm not going to agree with that, Smith helps in ways Zucker never has. Anywhere.

That's the post season.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I think "get younger" is starting to become the contemporary "get more speed". Age doesn't matter anymore. This team doesn't have a competitive window left, and even if you wanna be the most optimistic person around, they have until Sid's deal is up and that's it. It doesn't matter if a guy is 26 or 33 because, again, in another two years this shit's probably gonna bottom out in a brutally ugly way.

The only reason age would matter is when you're talking about potentially recouping assets when the tear down starts. Nobody this team was gonna realistically target makes a difference in that regard, and the only player on the roster who does, Jake, is likely about to be handed a full NMC and like a seven year, $60 million deal by this time next year. It's gonna be the Rust situation but worse in terms of waiting too long to move a guy.

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

I hear you on a lot of these fronts, but I do take issue with the idea that Dubas is not trying to get younger. Eller is really the only "older" player he acquired. I would have preferred someone like Morgan Geekie or Michael McLeod, but we don't know if they were ever a possibility. I certainly prefer Eller over Blueger or Kampf. AND, Dubas did acquire a young No. 3 center...Brayden Yager. It may take a few years, but he could slide into that spot. Poulin is also still here (for now).

He has moved out one future asset, just one. The pick we had acquired for Blueger turned into Reilly Smith. That is a win. Is Smith older than Zucker? Absolutely. He is also better in my humble opinion. Far more reliable and proven when it matters most. He is a great addition. Also, Graves is younger than Dumoulin and much needed for this soft roster. He will make an impact. Ditto Acciari, who is a massive upgrade over Archibald.

Nieto is meh, but so was Heinen. Nieto fits the checking line much better. Not sure he makes the team, since guys like O'Connor and Johnsson may beat him out. Johnsson looks like the type of reclamation project Dubas was talking about. Overall, we have improved the bottom six (is it enough? Maybe not). Especially if guys like Nylander, Puustinen, Poulin and O'Connor are given more opportunities. That will be key.

There is no point in moving Carter. He has the NMC and he is finishing his contract this season (and likely his career). Playing under 10 minutes a game should help him. If his line (the fourth) becomes more of a depth scoring line, that could help the team. Also, if he sits out some games, we have the players to replace him...maybe even Poulin? Carter still has some value on special teams, imo. As for Petry and Granlund, clearly Dubas is TRYING to move both of them. Will he succeed? I don't know, there seems to be gridlock with most NHL teams right now. I do suspect someone will be shipped out.

In terms of Jarry, Dubas picked a goaltender and went with it. At least he chose a 27-year-old with some untapped upside. And, he covered himself by adding depth. Quality depth. I think Nedeljkovic will turn out to be one of the best signings of this summer. For me, he is a big upgrade over DeSmith. And he is another goaltender with untapped upside.

If Dubas is done with the off-season, then for sure it will be disappointing. But, the good news is he kept most of our future assets.

I think it is time to pivot away from Karlsson and start looking for other impact player possibilities. I still think he has talked to the Rangers this off-season about Lafreniere, and I think he should continue to pursue that. I would also like him to maybe sign someone like Jesper Boqvist, who played some with Johnsson in NJ and has some untapped upside. He is quite versatile, too.

Until Dubas gives me a reason to dislike what his plan is, I will continue to support it. It does feel like that is a slippery slope, though.

Sir, may I gently remind you HFBoards is no place for cool-headed, reasonable commentary. Please ratchet up hyperbole, hysteria, and negativity in future posts.

 

[Nakawick]

For about 2 years Zucker was the whipping boy around here. People have short memories. Smith just won a Cup last month. Smith is 8 months older than Zucker.

 

[3ladesof5teel]

For about 2 years Zucker was the whipping boy around here. People have short memories. Smith just won a Cup last month. Smith is 8 months older than Zucker.

So because HF board posters have a whipping boy?

A majority of the time the boards whipping boys are 100% wrong. And in the case of Zucker shows all you need to know. Remember when Jason Zucker was going to take a 1st rounder to move. The couch coaches know more then the executives making millions lol

These HF posters just didn't get their shot at the bigs.

 

[ThosePuckingPenguins]

Looks like the DeBrincat trade to Detroit is coming to a head. Hopefully that opens the trade market up.

 

[pensfan71]

The DeBrincat contract is beautiful

 

[CascadiaPenguin]

I think there is a sector of Penguins fans who go way overboard with how good Zucker was last year. He outscored Rust by 1 point and everyone said Rust was awful last year. He had 37 5v5 points, which is absolutely good but was also like 70th in the NHL. He was 98th in the NHL in terms of 5v5 points/60, among players who played in more than 200 minutes last year. Smith was 97th in rate and 95th in production (3 fewer 5v5 points) for comparison.

Zucker definitely had a good year, no one can deny that. But that was just it, it was a good year. It was a good year that Reilly Smith has done or exceeded multiple times in the last 6 years.

I think that is partially due to Zuck having infectious enthusiasm for each and every shift, hard not to like that. In comparison, Rust looked like he lost confidence in his game last year which, coupled with his new contract, was kind of tough to swallow from a fan's perspective. We need Rust with his head on straight and hopefully his game will follow.

 

[ZorkEnchanter]

You guys can be mad all you want but Sullivan has a bunch of 36+ old players and is salivating...

"they'll play the game the right way..." " you guys and your stats and all, but this locker room knows..."

 

[Coastal Kev]

This team will be hot trash from 2026 until 2031. Yolo it all Dubas. I want every future hall of famer over 35 on the roster. Karlsson, Kane, hell get Spezza out of the front office and on the 4th line. More senior citizens!

This team missed the playoffs last year while having they’re top 2 aging Centers healthy the entire year. With a key injury or two, They could easily be hot trash this year. Which is why you do not trade potential lottery picks, unless you get a star....which ain’t happening.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think that DeBrincat deal shows the impact that the flat cap plus a limited market has on a player's value. Based on that deal, I'm highly skeptical the Sharks will end up getting Smith, Pickering and a 1st for Karlsson.

 

[Turin]

Yzerman used almost all his leverage there

 

[Jacob]

I think that DeBrincat deal shows the impact that the flat cap plus a limited market has on a player's value. Based on that deal, I'm highly skeptical the Sharks will end up getting Smith, Pickering and a 1st for Karlsson.

At this point it’s salary dump + Smith + 1st and they’re eating like 30%.

 

[Empoleon8771]

At this point it’s salary dump + Smith + 1st and they’re eating like 30%.

My expectation is still Smith, a 2024 1st and a conditional 2025 2nd that can become a 1st based on how the Penguins do. I can't see him bringing back more than that.

It's very likely Smith, a 1st and 2nd, but it could be Smith and 2 1sts if the Penguins win. At that point, no one will care that the Penguins are giving up 2 1sts.