Salary Cap: Pens '23-'24 Salary Cap Thread: "Youth movement is the most monstrously conceived and dangerous communist plot we have ever had to face"

[Ugene Magic]

Maybe I'm just being "pretentious and edgy" again, but I still don't see how the 3rd line is even in the top-5 issues with this team right now. The Crosby line has been their best line this year by far, but the 3rd line has been their 2nd best line by an equally large margin too.

Even if you think the 3rd line isn't producing enough, how much below is it than what would be a reasonable expectation for a 3rd line? Zohorna, Eller and O'Connor have a combined 7 goals and 19 points in 21 games this year, and Zohorna has played a few less games than the other two. That projects to end up around 10 goals and 30 points over a full season. Even if you want "elite 3rd line production", you're looking at maybe 5 goals and 10 points extra for each guy (so 15 goals and 40 points for each guy). For the 3rd line to be on pace to put that up, they'd need to have 11 goals and 31 points on the year. So you're talking a difference of about 4 goals so far this year between their production and what I'd call "elite 3rd line production".

Know what has a lot bigger of a difference than the 4 goals that the 3rd line is lacking in? The powerplay, which should have about 10 more goals this year. Or Malkin's line, which should probably have around 5 more goals this year.

The difference between the 3rd line being just "good" and "elite" isn't close at all to the major issues on this team. If you want to talk 5v5, Malkin's line is a far bigger issue than the 3rd line, it's not even close.

The simple point is there is no real threat, teams are not afraid of the Pens 3rd line. That's the difference of having one well rounded player to drive that line. What you are talking about is a 3rd line of a consistent non playoff team. The talent does not equate to the final results enough.

Hence why they have to drive their top lines into the ground for offense.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The simple point is there is no real threat, teams are not afraid of the Pens 3rd line. That's the difference of having one well rounded player to drive that line. What you are talking about is a 3rd line of a consistent non playoff team. The talent does not equate to the final results enough.

Hence why they have to drive their top lines into the ground for offense.

I like how you just completely ignored the numbers in my post that showed that the impact of a completely "elite" 3rd line would have pales in comparison to the impact that having a good powerplay would have.

You're grinding this axe because you've been arguing this for months, mostly in the context of why they had to keep Granlund in the off-season. The reality is the 3rd line has been their 2nd best line this year and it's far down the list of issues this team has.

 

[Andy99]

The simple point is there is no real threat, teams are not afraid of the Pens 3rd line. That's the difference of having one well rounded player to drive that line. What you are talking about is a 3rd line of a consistent non playoff team. The talent does not equate to the final results enough.

Hence why they have to drive their top lines into the ground for offense.

I don’t think that’s why they drive the top lines for offense but the point is valid…

 

[Empoleon8771]

In terms of on-ice goals, Malkin literally has the same 5v5 GF/60 rate as Zohorna this year at 2.36. In terms of GF%, Zohorna is at a 58.33% while Malkin is at a 48.00%.

I know the context of who is bringing up the argument, but I just don't understand how you can look at the 5v5 numbers this team has put up and seriously conclude "the 3rd line is not producing enough" when it's literally producing the same as Malkin's line. Which is more damning on Malkin's line than it is praise for the 3rd line, by the way.

But even more importantly, I don't see how you can even mention this team's 5v5 production in general when they're 5th in the NHL in 5v5 GF/60 and are losing almost entirely due to their shit powerplay.

 

[Empoleon8771]

To emphasize the 3rd line point even further:

-Bonino-Kessel: 2.57 5v5 goals/60 in 700 minutes between 2015-2016 and 2016-2017
-Zohorna-Eller: 2.58 5v5 goals/60 in 140 minutes so far this year

Obviously there's a huge difference in sample size there, but I find it hilarious the Zohorna-Eller duo is producing at the same rate as the Bonino-Kessel duo did in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. Yet there are still people complaining about the 3rd line.

 

[Andy99]

To emphasize the 3rd line point even further:

-Bonino-Kessel: 2.57 5v5 goals/60 in 700 minutes between 2015-2016 and 2016-2017
-Zohorna-Eller: 2.58 5v5 goals/60 in 140 minutes so far this year

Obviously there's a huge difference in sample size there, but I find it hilarious the Zohorna-Eller duo is producing at the same rate as the Bonino-Kessel duo did in 2015-2016 and 2016-2017. Yet there are still people complaining about the 3rd line.

Yes in a vacuum you are right…the issue is that we dont have 28-29 year old Sid and Geno, 24 year old Jake, Kessel…all of those are better offensive players than we currently have on our top lines…our offense has fallen off there…and we don’t have anyone in the bottom six who can help make up for more or move up in case of injury…DOc is not the answer, people lol

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yes in a vacuum you are right…the issue is that we dont have 28-29 year old Sid and Geno, 24 year old Jake, Kessel…all of those are better offensive players than we currently have on our top lines…our offense has fallen off there…and we don’t have anyone in the bottom six who can help make up for more or move up in case of injury…DOc is not the answer, people lol

It hasn't though, hence why they're top-5 in 5v5 goals this year. You can definitely argue that Crosby's line is for sure carrying that, but the team is getting a ton of production at 5v5.

 

[Andy99]

It hasn't though, hence why they're top-5 in 5v5 goals this year. You can definitely argue that Crosby's line is for sure carrying that, but the team is getting a ton of production at 5v5.

Total goals count most and they’re failing there…not one of the top teams goals wise

 

[Ugene Magic]

I like how you just completely ignored the numbers in my post that showed that the impact of a completely "elite" 3rd line would have pales in comparison to the impact that having a good powerplay would have.

You're grinding this axe because you've been arguing this for months, mostly in the context of why they had to keep Granlund in the off-season. The reality is the 3rd line has been their 2nd best line this year and it's far down the list of issues this team has.

I've been grinding this because it is a proven model, not just for the Pens, and remember their goal is to challenge for another cup. Their words.

So throw numbers out, but compare names instead of numbers. I'm talking cup winners and challengers/runners up.

^^^^^That's the point^^^^^

More proven, and that's what ended up helping the Pens to two straight.

But keep pushing the nobodies who've done nothing outside of, Eller. Once.

I'm sure the cup is imminent fallowing your model.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Total goals count most and they’re failing there…not one of the top teams goals wise

And again, I’m saying their total goal count is low solely because of the powerplay.

That’s the point I’m making. This team isn’t perfect at 5v5, but they’re good, arguably great, at 5v5 this year. Their scoring issues are solely on the powerplay.

I've been grinding this because it is a proven model, not just for the Pens, and remember their goal is to challenge for another cup. Their words.

So throw numbers out, but compare names instead of numbers. I'm talking cup winners and challengers/runners up.

^^^^^That's the point^^^^^

More proven, and that's what ended up helping the Pens to two straight.

But keep pushing the nobodies who've done nothing outside of, Eller. Once.

I'm sure the cup is imminent fallowing your model.

So results don’t matter and all that matters is what you think?

 

[Ugene Magic]

And again, I’m saying their total goal count is low solely because of the powerplay.

That’s the point I’m making. This team isn’t perfect at 5v5, but they’re good, arguably great, at 5v5 this year. Their scoring issues are solely on the powerplay.



So results don’t matter and all that matters is what you think?

Yes. The results matter. Your model has not. The teams who are top teams throw out 3 lines of mostly quality, especially the one's who challenge for more than one.

What's so hard to understand. Numbers are not everything, just like analytics are not everything.

Talent is a great equalizer. You are trying to prove anyone can do it as long as analytics shows they can. Why has the Pens failed for so many years? It wasn't the numbers (regular season). Talent is the failing key to their unrest. Talent/experience will make them a contender. What they have, and what you are pushing is a pretender. Not even a playoff team.

So I will not even take what you said to be worth anything more than just trying to prove something that's never gonna happen. Just bullying a worthless point to be the most common result. Nevermind what the talent difference is.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Yes. The results matter. Your model has not. The teams who are top teams throw out 3 lines of mostly quality, especially the one's who challenge for more than one.

What's so hard to understand. Numbers are not everything, just like analytics are not everything.

Talent is a great equalizer. You are trying to prove anyone can do it as long as analytics shows they can. Why has the Pens failed for so many years? It wasn't the numbers (regular season). Talent is the failing key to their unrest. Talent/experience will make them a contender. What they have, and what you are pushing is a pretender. Not even a playoff team.

So I will not even take what you said to be worth anything more than just trying to prove something that's never gonna happen. Just bullying a worthless point to be the most common result. Nevermind what the talent difference is.

I'm not talking about analytics here at all, I'm talking purely about goal rate. I'll believe Zohorna and Eller as 2/3 of the 3rd line isn't good enough when they actually prove it's not good enough. But so far, they've been just as productive (in terms of rate) as Bonino and Kessel were together in the regular season.

What actually matters is on-ice results. If playing 3 AHLers together somehow yields a good NHL line, you keep that line together even if the line isn't sexy on paper. Games are won on the ice, not on paper. It's why the Kessel addition is and has always been a terrible idea: it's purely an on-paper decision because Kessel is a recognizable name but isn't a good player anymore.

 

[Empoleon8771]

To add, I don’t even disagree with the idea that they should be looking for another bottom-6 addition. My thought is that they need to focus more on getting a bottom-6 guy that can help address their powerplay though, hence why I mentioned Raddysh earlier today.

But in the end, not having a guy like Granlund or Kessel on the 3rd line is absolutely not a problem this team has. Even if you take out the fact that both of those guys stink (Granlund has a 0.56 5v5 points/60 this year, no joke), they already have that kind of play driver for the 3rd line already: Zohorna. I have full confidence in Zohorna driving that 3rd line based on what he has shown me so far this year.

The only thing I’d be looking to add to that 3rd line is either some finishing talent that fits the defensive mold of that line (someone like Ylonen) or a net front guy that you’re bringing in mostly for the powerplay (someone like Raddysh). That’s all that 3rd line needs in my eyes, and honestly I think they’d still probably be fine with keeping O’Connor on L3.

I don’t think you need to make any player additions if you have a lineup like this:

Guentzel-Crosby-Rakell
Smith-Malkin-Rust
Zohorna-Eller-Raddysh
O’Connor-Acciari-Nieto
Carter (I don’t want him here but you can’t do anything about him)

Graves-Letang
Pettersson-Karlsson
POJ-Ludvig
Shea

If this lineup isn’t working, you start firing coaches. Well, they should have fired Rierden already but you especially fire him if you add a net front guy like Raddysh but the powerplay still sucks.

 

[Ugene Magic]

 

[Ulf5]

Who knows what Perry did, but considering that the Hawks aren't known for their morally high standards, I can't imagine any team welcoming him.

Supposedly Emily Kaplan of ESPN is reporting he had an incident with a team employee prior to their game against Columbus last week. He was pulled from the game pending investigation.

 

[Victor Z]

And again, I’m saying their total goal count is low solely because of the powerplay.

If the Pens were converting at a league average power-play rate -- that's what we brought EK in for, right, so our PP would be "average"? -- they would have exactly 4.55 more goals than they do right now, given their scant opportiunities.

And that's a big issue too: the fact that an average team gets 3.38 PP chances per game from the Game Managers while the refs (like, for example, just last night) are screwing the Pens and giving them only 2.76 PP chances per game. It wouldn't be surprising if that's the lowest rate in the league; they're just not getting enough practice at PPs.

Yeah, the Game Managers swallowed the whistles for both teams in the 3rd period yesterday, but before that they conveniently ignored about 136 Nashville penalties while calling some pretty ticky-tack shit against the Pens.


Edit: That IS the lowest per-game rate of PP chances in the league, with San Jose a tiny faction behind. We can reasonably assume that a team as rotten as San Jose doesn't possess then puck enough to draw many penalties; that's not the case with the Penguins.

 

[Empoleon8771]

If the Pens were converting at a league average power-play rate -- that's what we brought EK in for, right, so our PP would be "average"? -- they would have exactly 4.55 more goals than they do right now, given their scant opportiunities.

And that's a big issue too: the fact that an average team gets 3.38 PP chances per game from the Game Managers while the refs (like, for example, just last night) are screwing the Pens and giving them only 2.76 PP chances per game. It wouldn't be surprising if that's the lowest rate in the league; they're just not getting enough practice at PPs.

Yeah, the Game Managers swallowed the whistles for both teams in the 3rd period yesterday, but before that they conveniently ignored about 136 Nashville penalties while calling some pretty ticky-tack shit against the Pens.

I think the Penguins PP should be clicking about 30% this year with the talent it has, which is just above the Canucks for 4th in the NHL. That's 17 powerplay goals on the year so far, when they're currently at 7. That's why I keep using that 10 goals figure for how many goals the powerplay is leaving on the table.

If their powerplay was clicking at 30% like it should be clicking at, the Penguins are likely something around 14-6-1 and are sitting 2nd in the division. That's why I keep arguing against people who say the bottom-6 isn't producing enough, any reasonable increase in production from the bottom-6 pales in comparison to a reasonable increase in production from the powerplay.

 

[Victor Z]

If the Pens were clicking at a 30% rate, they'd NEVER get a power play chance from the refs.

 

[Gurglesons]

Yea I personally avoid conversations about Marino with you because he was not a cap dump.

Agree to disagree.

He was a cap dump in the context of the trade.

If we had kept him and he bounced back it would have been a different story, but we sold low.

 

[Ugene Magic]

An addition to the 3rd line is like Duclair or Rakell/Rust by way of adding Tarasenko to Geno's line.

But waiting to get guys at 50% at the TDL will probably be too late.

 

[TKalltheTime]

Man the Pens would have been super smart to bring in Sam Bennett before they planned to ask Horny waive. He’s a dude that would have been a Godsend here, especially filling that type of Role PH played…

 

[mephisto1812]

What assets did Hextall throw away lol?

He made one bad trade for Granlund. Everything else was nothing burgers.

How about wasting a very good, very healthy year for Sid and Geno in the twilight of their careers. Does that not count as wasting assets, or throwing them away?

 

[Gurglesons]

How about wasting a very good, very healthy year for Sid and Geno in the twilight of their careers. Does that not count as wasting assets, or throwing them away?

So what are Sully and Dubas doing this year?

 

[pistolpete11]

Whether the 3rd line is good enough to win in the playoffs is a valid concern, but
I'd rather have a functioning PP than anybody they could realistically add to the 3rd line.

 

[Headshot77]

Back to some trade talks, this is 100% a guy I've brought up in the past but the powerplay woes makes me think more and more that acquiring Taylor Raddysh is a great idea. The big knock on him is that he's somewhat reliant on the powerplay to put up points, he had 20 goals and 37 points last year but only 12 goals and 20 points were at 5v5. That does yield a good 5v5 goal rate (0.71), but the point production rate (1.18) is terrible.

But why do I think he makes sense? He's 6'3" and a terrific net front guy on the powerplay. Raddysh had 7 powerplay goals and 15 powerplay points last year, and he had some 5v5 goals as a net front guy as well:



Well over half of his goals last season were from no further out than the slot, and he had a ton of tip-in and net front goals as well. I'm not sure he fits exactly what I want to add for that 3rd line RW spot, but you damn well know that both PP1 and PP2 need a net front guy on it.

I'd be concerned about adding another Acciari like 5v5 producer (aka he puts up good goal totals but shit assist totals), but you can't deny that Raddysh is just a menace around the net and that's pretty clearly a major need for the team. And if Sullivan wants to be concerned about his PKing fetish, Raddysh is averaging 2 minutes a night on Chicago's PK this year so you know he can do that.

Raddysh's production is down this year (only 3 goals and 5 points in 20 games), but I don't believe he's on Chicago's top PP unit anymore. He's being used more like a 3rd liner, 2nd PP unit and PK unit type of forward this year.

Sorry Emp, there's no need to talk about trades because Sullivan exists. /S