Salary Cap: Penguins 2014-15 roster building discussion III (Contract/free agent chart in Post 1)

[Waffle Fries]

So maybe I'm not understanding something, but why exactly would more of this board want Burns over Kesler? Looked at some of the stats.

Kesler's labeled as injury prone. And yet he's only missed 5 more games than Burns since Burns was moved to forward the last two years. And Kesler's been the healthier player of the two before then.

Production? Kesler put up 25 goals playing much of the season with 3rd liners. Burns had similar production playing with Thornton.

Burns is all of 5 months younger. And signed for only one more season than Kesler.

People don't want Kesler b/c he's more of a natural center. Yet he played at a high level this year at wing. And Burns is now moving back to defense. SJ fans are even saying Burns can't keep up his level of play at wing for a full season into the playoffs. Kesler has shown in the past he can. Playing a similar Kamikaze style around the net, hard RHS and top tier defense.

Just thought I'd throw that out there. Especially when people are talking about moving Letang for Burns. When just a couple months ago, we were close to landing Kesler for Sutter+D prospect+1st.

But even harder to find is the kind of unrestrained physical force Brent Burns was as a power forward for the past season and a half. He was one of the most effective forecheckers in the league, excelled on the cycle and at protecting the puck along the wall in tandem with Joe Thornton and generated a boatload of scoring opportunities every time he stepped on the ice.

Mostly that ^^

But also this:

Only six forwards have averaged more 5-on-5 goals per minute over the past two seasons than Burns-as-a-forward has. Only twelve forwards have averaged more 5-on-5 points per minute (not all of them are listed above since the table is ranked by goals but the others were Sidney Crosby, Taylor Hall, Ryan Getzlaf, Thomas Vanek, Chris Kunitz, Eric Staal, Tyler Seguin and Matt Duchene—not bad company). Only Alex Ovechkin generated more 5-on-5 shot attempts per minute than Burns this past season; if Burns had been fortunate enough to shoot 18.2% like Joe Pavelski did, he would have scored at a 54-goal pace with the vast majority of that damage done at even-strength. Obviously it isn't realistic to expect anyone to score on that high a percentage of their shots but the point is that, even with Burns' elite-level production as a forward so far, regression suggests that there's a very good chance he would have scored at an even higher rate next season had the Sharks kept him up front. Even beyond the production, Burns' impact on the Sharks after the switch can't be overstated. His ability to push the pace and be a force on the top line midway through the lockout-shortened 2013 season allowed Todd McLellan to move Joe Pavelski to third-line center and catalyzed San Jose's rise from a mediocre to high-end puck possession team and their corresponding rise in the standings down the stretch that year.

http://www.fearthefin.com/2014/5/16/5722254/moving-brent-burns-back-to-defense-is-a-mistake

 

[pensfan71]

The only way I take Brisson is if he's willing to just cut all ties with Kunitz or Dupuis for established younger players. Dupuis will probs stay cause no one wants a gimp at this point

 

[Darth Vitale]

Either one would help our cause if healthy, but the stereotype that Kesler is injury prone and Burns isn't, is flat wrong. Burns tends to get hurt pretty often. Kesler gets hurt but plays through it a lot of times.

 

[mpp9]

Mostly that ^^

But also this:


http://www.fearthefin.com/2014/5/16/5722254/moving-brent-burns-back-to-defense-is-a-mistake

Burns is a bigger guy, no doubt. But I'd say alot of the 5 vs 5/60 min pt production can be attributed to the situations. Kesler was playing on an awful team this year. And was playing with players no better than what Sid had to work with this year. Burns saw his time with one of the best playmakers in the game.

And the difference in TOI is that Kesler PKs and Burns doesnt.

Burns could be a better player here, but I doubt it's worth the premium it'll likely take over the reported package at the deadline for Kesler.

 

[mpp9]

Either one would help our cause if healthy, but the stereotype that Kesler is injury prone and Burns isn't, is flat wrong. Burns tends to get hurt pretty often. Kesler gets hurt but plays through it a lot of times.

I'm not even sure Kesler is injury prone. He missed 5 games this season. Dealt with a shoulder injury the season before. And missed 5 games in the 4 seasons prior to that. If that's injury prone, our entire roster is.

If he was still playing at the level he was at in 10-11, we couldn't get him for what was rumored. But he's still a definite upgrade for Sid. And could fit in very well with that what the team needs more of as well as Sid.

If you can get him for Sutter+D prospect+1st. And nab Kane for Neal+MAF. I'd be ecstatic. And that's not even including free agency.

 

[penguins2946*]

Letang for Kesler and Hansen ($7.25 out, $7.5 in)
Trade Dupuis and Scuderi for picks
Re-sign Sutter
Sign Kulemin

Kunitz-Crosby-Kesler
Kulemin-Malkin-Neal
Bennett-Sutter-Hansen
Adams-Adams-Adams

Maatta-Martin
Despres-Niskanen
Harrington-Bortuzzo

Now only if there was a way to get Kane for Sutter+ without including any young D.

 

[SuburbanRhythm]

Are people OK with Kunitz as the grit on Sid's line? Best case, I'd love Kane, who can supply both grit and skill. That's not happening though.

 

[billybudd]

So maybe I'm not understanding something, but why exactly would more of this board want Burns over Kesler? Looked at some of the stats.

Kesler's labeled as injury prone. And yet he's only missed 5 more games than Burns since Burns was moved to forward the last two years. And Kesler's been the healthier player of the two before then.

Production? Kesler put up 25 goals playing much of the season with 3rd liners. Burns had similar production playing with Thornton.

Burns is all of 5 months younger. And signed for only one more season than Kesler.

People don't want Kesler b/c he's more of a natural center. Yet he played at a high level this year at wing. And Burns is now moving back to defense. SJ fans are even saying Burns can't keep up his level of play at wing for a full season into the playoffs. Kesler has shown in the past he can. Playing a similar Kamikaze style around the net, hard RHS and top tier defense.

Just thought I'd throw that out there. Especially when people are talking about moving Letang for Burns. When just a couple months ago, we were close to landing Kesler for Sutter+D prospect+1st.

Good post.

Some continual resistance to the idea of Kesler might vestigial to the time that it was a certainty a Kesler acquisition would leave Gibbons to fill the hole on Sid's wing and do a poor job of it.

The situation (seems to have) changed drastically in the last two days. Kesler still plugs a Hell of a lot of holes and fear of misuse (whatever that may be) is really only valid if they hire a dumb coach.

That he can play center or wing is a big bonus, in my view, because it gives Pittsburgh flexibility. Suppose you put him on Sid's right and some new moron golfs a shot into 87's face. Well, you still have two high-production centers in the lineup.

 

[billybudd]

Are people OK with Kunitz as the grit on Sid's line?.

Absolutely not.

 

[pensfan71]

Are people OK with Kunitz as the grit on Sid's line? Best case, I'd love Kane, who can supply both grit and skill. That's not happening though.

**** no to Kunitz

 

[mpp9]

Are people OK with Kunitz as the grit on Sid's line? Best case, I'd love Kane, who can supply both grit and skill. That's not happening though.

He should be nearing the end playing with Sid IMO.

 

[Riptide]

It's not about getting better necessarily, just getting more reliable and cheaper. Opening up more cap to improve roster elsewhere. If you can't expect Fleury to win you games in playoffs, why not save salary, go with cheaper option, and improve the offense since it needs to be improved?

Would Brian Elliott for example at the half the price of Fleury be a bad option?

Would I really want Elliott and say Emery (or another of that ilk) as my two goalies going into a playoff series? Honestly... not really. And they'd still cost roughly 4-5m.

 

[Riptide]

I like packaging Neal and MAF for Kane because 1. there's actually a chance WPG would have interest in Fleury for his regular season play and 2. we get an upgrade on Neal and a chance to upgrade Fleury.

Honestly though, who knows if Winnipeg has any interest there at all. We're kinda moving our junk out in many ways, even though they're talented players.

Why does Winnipeg want a 5m goalie, when they're already paying Pavloc (sp) 4m+?

 

[Ogelthorpe]

Are people OK with Kunitz as the grit on Sid's line? Best case, I'd love Kane, who can supply both grit and skill. That's not happening though.

I always liked Kunitz with Malkin and Neal better than on Sid's line.

 

[CaptainMckenna*]

Honestly no one over the age of 27 should be brought in by trade or fa no more dumping off 1st rounders either look where it's got us old and beau Bennett unless we can dump a lot of old men with bad contracts and send craig Adams to naboo

 

[KIRK]

I would be fine with a Kane-Crosby-Bennett line next year. However, if we don't get someone like Kane and Kunitz is still the 1LW, I wouldn't be comfortable with Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett.

Why are we handing Bennet a spot with Sid next year? I hope he earns it, but he shouldn't be handed it. That isn't serving youth. That's doing a disservice to youth.

 

[SuburbanRhythm]

I always liked Kunitz with Malkin and Neal better than on Sid's line.

Agree here. At his best as the puck retriever/crap stirrer. See 2009 Kimmo Timonen hit.

But, assuming 14-71-18 and 9-16-19 as the other two lines in the top 9, what are the realistic targets?

I'm seeing tons of trades, but not sure how many are realistic.

Those groups leave Sid needing a scorer AND a wrecker. Because the all on ones (like E Kane) aren't available.

 

[KIRK]

That's a lot closer value. It will never happen, but its more reasonable. I think we'd probably need to add though. Not much, but a little. Pavelski has to have the most value of those guys right now. Letang would be close behind, and if he hadn't had a stroke 6 months ago it would probably be a wash, but he did have a stroke. Neal and Burns are probably close, though being able to play W and D probably gives Burns the edge even if the D part means nothing to us. So ya, I think we'd need to add something. Not something major, but something decent.

I suggested elsewhere that you might get it done if you added Sutter's UFA rights. A steep price. Yeah. Unless you consider what having guys like Burns and Pavelski would mean for Sid and Geno. That's really what's been missing, I think. It's as if trades are evaluated in terms of the fantasy value instead of how things would look different (and better).

 

[KIRK]

The only way I take Brisson is if he's willing to just cut all ties with Kunitz or Dupuis for established younger players. Dupuis will probs stay cause no one wants a gimp at this point

That could be his initiation. Mob, you've got to whack someone to become made. Hockey, Brisson would have to whack Kunitz or Dupuis to get made (GM).

 

[Waffle Fries]

Why are we handing Bennet a spot with Sid next year? I hope he earns it, but he shouldn't be handed it. That isn't serving youth. That's doing a disservice to youth.

In the hypothetical world where we have Kane, Kane and Kunitz are both LW and I don't think they fit well on the same line... at all. The RW options we'd have for Sid would be Dupuis and Bennett and Dupuis should not touch the top six.

 

[Ogrezilla]

In the hypothetical world where we have Kane, Kane and Kunitz are both LW and I don't think they fit well on the same line... at all. The RW options we'd have for Sid would be Dupuis and Bennett and Dupuis should not touch the top six.

so you find another RW. Bennett and Dupuis sound like a solid 3rd line.

 

[Waffle Fries]

so you find another RW. Bennett and Dupuis sound like a solid 3rd line.

You make it sound so simple. It's really not that easy to just go out and find multiple top six wingers.

 

[Ogrezilla]

You make it sound so simple. It's really not that easy to just go out and find multiple top six wingers.

right, but we should at least try to. Sign Hemsky or something. Hell, even Stempniak or Kulemin just to create the extra competition so we don't just hand the spot to Bennett.

 

[mpp9]

right, but we should at least try to. Sign Hemsky or something. Hell, even Stempniak or Kulemin just to create the extra competition so we don't just hand the spot to Bennett.

I want Kule here. But he should not be blocking Bennett unless we make some serious changes to the forward group.

I'd argue Kunitz' spot shouldn't be safe if the way he played post-Olympics is the trend.

But agreed we could easily pick up Hemsky and another top 6 guy via trade.

 

[SEALBound]

He should be nearing the end playing with Sid IMO.

Here's the thing though...he still has chemistry with Sid and he just scored 35 goals with him. As meh he was in the playoffs, management isn't gonna completely cut that off. The bigger issue, IMHO is the RW slot. Dupuis should be no where near the top line, even if injuries happen. Bennett is still a huge question mark to me. I think he should be Plan C or D. Sid's RW has had such issues over the years and its time to fill the hole. Kunitz-Crosby-Bennett/Dupuis isn't gonna cut it.

Sign or trade for a major player. **** ends this off season. Bennett can be on the 3rd line and sub in when needed. He's not proven himself yet to be a viable Top 6 solution in the long run. Maybe that changes but time for wishing and hoping is done.

Like I've been saying...summer of hurt feelings. Bennett, you got scratched for Glass in the playoffs...Game 7. You are not in any way a lock for the Top 6.

I checkd, Kunitz and Dupuis have limited NTC's. They can submit lists of teams to be traded to. If I'm the new GM I ask for those lists and explore possibilities. If nothing else to get out of the contracts. They were bad when Shero signed them and they are bad now. Moving forward with real change, we can not afford to be hamstrung by those contracts.