Player Discussion: Patrik Laine (mod warning in post #150)

[Ippenator]

Hard to say. Maybe Hendricks is better than people think. Maybe Petan is worse than people think. Or maybe, if Corsica can't really differentiate between them, it might not be a very good system?

Stats just confuse me. I'm kind of with the guy that thought that one graphic looked like a hard drive in need of defragging.

A bit similar thoughts about that for me too. But in fact it could also be because Petan didn’t really play in too many games last season. So the sample size might not give the true picture of him. On the other hand when I saw him play, he wasn’t really that impressive at all. And in fact in some games Hendricks even managed to surprise me quite positively. On the other hand, the more towards the end of the season, the more of putrid crap his game was too.

Anyway, it might after all even tell that Petan is really not as good as many of us think he is. I have even had quite high hopes in him still maybe really breaking through in the NHL. He should have the skills and the IQ do make it happen. But on the other hand his strength has been so far so weak and also he has been a pretty weak skater for being that small of a player. So it could be as well that Corsica’s model just shows how inefficient Petan is because of those weaknesses that he has. Maybe it even reflects what class of a player he is after all at the NHL level. I hope not, but the starting season might already give some answers.

Laine is anyway great and he will almost for sure be still developing a lot for several years. Honestly I have to admit that my expectations for the next season are even maybe going too high. Might be better to still hold on and take it easy to not get after all disappointed.

 

[Halberdier]

This is pretty interesting.

NHL Player Ratings, NHL Player Rankings

Seems like a bit more credible advanced stats that are more related with real results. I can’t say that it makes me really believe more in any kind of advanced stats, than how much I believe in the actual end results like goals, points and 5 on 5 goal difference, but anyway this matches pretty well with how efficient Laine has really been as a player.

Sorry, if this has been already posted here lately. I probably missed it then or just don’t remember it.

Laine at number 16. with his rating from the whole league, and only barely behind Scheifele. Ahead of players like Panarin, Wheeler, Matthews, Kopitar, Seguin and Barkov. He is also in fact the 3rd best ranked of all the right wingers.

I’m not exactly though claiming that Patty is necessarily better yet as a player than any of them, but at least he is in pretty much the same class with them with how much he has a positive effect on his team’s play. What is really impressive though, is that he is so darn effective already as an only 20 year old physically raw sophomore player with pretty non-optimal usage. What will he really be when he develops every season for a few years from now on?

Exciting, isn't it? Also when you look at completely different stat, WAR/82 for last 3 seasons from corsica.hockey.com (not to be confused with corsicahockey.com, go figure), Laine is 4th among all skaters. Scheifele is 13th, Wheeler 17th. Looking at just 2 last seasons (which may be more fair comparison for Laine due to him having played only those 2), Laine is only 6th best skater, Scheifele 11th and Wheeler 22nd.

You know, not so bad this 8th/10th best WPG forward, or what do you think? Or maybe they mistyped as they tried to say he is the 6th best forward in the league?

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

Nice Laine vs. Seth Jones discussion on main boards. Jones apparently the MVP between the two.

 

[Tommigun]

Nice Laine vs. Seth Jones discussion on main boards. Jones apparently the MVP between the two.

Apparently a young Ovi looked better than Laine. Funny thing is Ovi was 20 during his rookie season so there’s zero comparable seasons yet.

Laine allegedly also gets huge PP minutes, sucks defensively and gets to play with the best players so his assists are low.

 

[kelsier]

Nice Laine vs. Seth Jones discussion on main boards. Jones apparently the MVP between the two.

Yeap. He kind of tends to lose a lot of those polls when there's 100+ Leafs fans voting against him (maybe a slight exaggeration but still).

Apparently a young Ovi looked better than Laine. Funny thing is Ovi was 20 during his rookie season so there’s zero comparable seasons yet.

Laine allegedly also gets huge PP minutes, sucks defensively and gets to play with the best players so his assists are low.

I didn't bother reading it through but I'd bet 90% (if not more) ignore they are are 3 years apart and whatever else that actually matters. One is truly unique player that you might see once in every other decade and the other one elite. But hey, position >> all else, right?

It's quite baffling how despite of having done what he's done, the "kid" still doesn't get the recognition he deserves. Some haters are going to look like clowns by the end of the day though, particularly the ones that surf into every Laine topic just to trash him.

 

[Maukkis]

1) polls here are basically a popularity contest
2) Jones finished fourth in Norris voting after dominating last year

 

[Halberdier]

Yeap. He kind of tends to lose a lot of those polls when there's 100+ Leafs fans voting against him (maybe a slight exaggeration but still).

To give credit for a large number of Leaf fans that were in deep denial state just couple of years ago have seen the light, partially. And they now understand that Laine is the real deal. I have been surprised lately quite many times.

They are currently more often downplaying McDavid than Laine, for example.

 

[BB88]

Nice Laine vs. Seth Jones discussion on main boards. Jones apparently the MVP between the two.

Current Jones is more valuable than current Laine.

But if Laine becomes a consistent Rocket competitor and Jones isn't the next Karlsson/Hedman Laine jumps over him in value.

 

[Howard Chuck]

To give credit for a large number of Leaf fans that were in deep denial state just couple of years ago have seen the light, partially. And they now understand that Laine is the real deal. I have been surprised lately quite many times.

They are currently more often downplaying McDavid than Laine, for example.

It's crazy to see people downplaying any of the current crop of new superstars. I see people disparaging Laine, Matthews, Eichel, and to a lesser extent McDavid. As someone said above, it's really a popularity contest based on who plays for your team.

To me, the NHL has a very exciting group of new players that are still very young and will provide incredible entertainment for years to come.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Nice Laine vs. Seth Jones discussion on main boards. Jones apparently the MVP between the two.

Well...he is...isn't he?

 

[7even]

To give credit for a large number of Leaf fans that were in deep denial state just couple of years ago have seen the light, partially. And they now understand that Laine is the real deal. I have been surprised lately quite many times.

They are currently more often downplaying McDavid than Laine, for example.

Feels like the majority of the main board underrates Laine now, feels like they're meme-ing on him -- "dur he can't skate/play defense/etc." Like there's a thread about the top 5 wingers and somehow the consensus is that he's not one of them?? Dude's a bet to put up 45-50 per year, every year for the immediate future, and it's just ignored.

Maybe people just get seduced by point totals and don't put the proper weight on goal scoring. Matthews at 19/20 has led the league in ES goals since he came in, people lose their minds if you put him in the top 20 players. Young guys getting so much disrespect.

 

[ffh]

I could just imagine this place if trouba had jones's numbers and was 4th in Norris voting. does it make you less of a jet fan if you acknowledge the bloody obvious at least as of today.

 

[Whileee]

I'm expecting Laine to come to camp lean and quick and explode this season. A bit more quickness and another year of experience and I think he'll become a dominant player. He has so much skill and hockey sense, and he's already physically imposing. Add in that other-worldly shot and he could break out with 50-60 goals.

 

[Howard Chuck]

I'm expecting Laine to come to camp lean and quick and explode this season. A bit more quickness and another year of experience and I think he'll become a dominant player. He has so much skill and hockey sense, and he's already physically imposing. Add in that other-worldly shot and he could break out with 50-60 goals.

Yes. I think he's ready to break out this year, as if he hasn't already But I see him taking another step in his development. These are still prime years for YOY improvement.

Then there is usage as well, but that's in the coach's hands.

 

[Romang67]

Feels like the majority of the main board underrates Laine now, feels like they're meme-ing on him -- "dur he can't skate/play defense/etc." Like there's a thread about the top 5 wingers and somehow the consensus is that he's not one of them?? Dude's a bet to put up 45-50 per year, every year for the immediate future, and it's just ignored.

Maybe people just get seduced by point totals and don't put the proper weight on goal scoring. Matthews at 19/20 has led the league in ES goals since he came in, people lose their minds if you put him in the top 20 players. Young guys getting so much disrespect.

I wonder if there may be a case of recency bias for young great players over the past couple of years, what with McDavid, Matthews, Laine, and arguably Eichel. People just compare them to each other, without realizing how well they are performing compared to essentially any player going back to Crosby/Ovechkin/Malkin.

I remember some years back having discussions about how elite company Evander Kane was in when he hit 30 goals at age 20. Laine has absolutely shattered that, pacing for 40 goals in his 18 year old season, and hitting 44 in his 19 year old season. And people are so blasé about it.

It's weird. I have extremely high expectations for the kid, so I will be harsher on him than players I expect less from, but I don't know how you can go about and not recognize that what he's doing is incredible at that age.

 

[Whileee]

Yes. I think he's ready to break out this year, as if he hasn't already But I see him taking another step in his development. These are still prime years for YOY improvement.

Then there is usage as well, but that's in the coach's hands.

One obvious area for enhancement if he's more fit and experienced is expanding his ES time on ice by 15-20%. Adding another 2-3 minutes of ES ice-time per game could translate to another 4-5 goals and 7-10 points, even if his productivity at ES isn't improved.

 

[Halberdier]

Feels like the majority of the main board underrates Laine now, feels like they're meme-ing on him -- "dur he can't skate/play defense/etc." Like there's a thread about the top 5 wingers and somehow the consensus is that he's not one of them?? Dude's a bet to put up 45-50 per year, every year for the immediate future, and it's just ignored.

Maybe people just get seduced by point totals and don't put the proper weight on goal scoring. Matthews at 19/20 has led the league in ES goals since he came in, people lose their minds if you put him in the top 20 players. Young guys getting so much disrespect.

TOP-5 wingers is a touch spot to be. Laine is close to that, but not yet there. He might be there already next season, but just not yet.

Ovechkin, Marchand, Kucherov, Wheeler, Kane, for example.

But I guess consensus is that he is both TOP-5 RW (though being a natural LW, but this is another discussion topic with Maurice) and TOP-10 winger.

I hope he is TOP-5 winger next season, and he already is there in in some of those statistical comparisons, but he'll need to be like TOP-5 winger in total points or win the Rocket.

 

[Psych0dad]

Well...he is...isn't he?

No. Not even close.

 

[BB88]

No. Not even close.

Laines the 3rd best forward on the Jets, he's not more valuable today as Norris contender.

 

[Psych0dad]

Laines the 3rd best forward on the Jets, he's not more valuable today as Norris contender.

Value comes from potential as well. Laine has a much higher ceiling.

Jones could ask for 7-8 million and get it. Laine could ask for 10 and get it.

Laine is top 2 with Scheifele, stats show that rather clearly. They are both over +30 the past two seasons 5 on 5.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

Value comes from potential as well. Laine has a much higher ceiling.

Jones could ask for 7-8 million and get it. Laine could ask for 10 and get it.

Laine is top 2 with Scheifele, stats show that rather clearly. They are both over +30 the past two seasons 5 on 5.

He can ask anything, but he's not getting 10 as an RFA.

 

[Psych0dad]

He can ask anything, but he's not getting 10 as an RFA.

That is your understanding.

 

[BB88]

Value comes from potential as well. Laine has a much higher ceiling.

Jones could ask for 7-8 million and get it. Laine could ask for 10 and get it.

Laine is top 2 with Scheifele, stats show that rather clearly. They are both over +30 the past two seasons 5 on 5.

Laine wasn't better than 91 point Wheeler.
If we look at how they've played potential adds nothing to it, if we just look at future then yes.

17-18 Jones was a lot better than 17-18 Laine, if Laine becomes a consistent Rocket contender/winner he can overtake him.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

That is your understanding.

And of course if Laine gets 7.5 mil it's only because he was generous enough to leave the 2.5 on the table, yeah?

I base my guess on what other RFA wingers get. And so will the Jets.

 

[BB88]

And of course if Laine gets 7.5 mil it's only because he was generous enough to leave the 2.5 on the table, yeah?

I base my guess on what other RFA wingers get. And so will the Jets.

If we are talking 8 years 7.5M is awfully low.

There hasn't been Laine level winger signed in ages from ELC.