P-L Dubois Part 2

[DarkandStormy]

That's a huge disappointment. At third overall the expectation must be that you're drafting a star player. If he doesn't become that, then he was a bad choice.

Pssst...it's possible there were no star players on the board at #3.

 

[JacketsDavid]

Pssst...it's possible there were no star players on the board at #3.

And if we knew that then why not trade down? There was demand where a lot of clubs saw it as a 3 man class.

It is a bit disappointing a year after the draft that a ceiling has been established. Now again maybe that ceiling is higher and we are over reacting, but seems unusual for a top pick like that (while not getting an opportunity in the NHL) to fall.

 

[CBJFan827]

And if we knew that then why not trade down? There was demand where a lot of clubs saw it as a 3 man class.

It is a bit disappointing a year after the draft that a ceiling has been established. Now again maybe that ceiling is higher and we are over reacting, but seems unusual for a top pick like that (while not getting an opportunity in the NHL) to fall.

I was actually rooting for that, but JK played his hand too early and no one wanted to offer up much, because they knew he didn't value JP highly.

Know whose draft I'm jealous of, at least on the front end? Arizona. Clayton Keller is a guy I wanted badly, and Chychrun at 16 is good value.

 

[DarkandStormy]

And if we knew that then why not trade down? There was demand where a lot of clubs saw it as a 3 man class.

Jarmo overplayed his hand in wanting to trade down (it became public) so a bunch of teams just called his bluff. Would have to look back at stuff from last year to see how it exactly played out but after the draft I believe the Canucks GM said everyone knew Jarmo wanted to get out of #3 so everyone just stood pat.

 

[Nanabijou]

And if we knew that then why not trade down? There was demand where a lot of clubs saw it as a 3 man class.

It is a bit disappointing a year after the draft that a ceiling has been established. Now again maybe that ceiling is higher and we are over reacting, but seems unusual for a top pick like that (while not getting an opportunity in the NHL) to fall.

It's easy to say just trade down, but in practice, I can see why it wasn't feasible. This was discussed in a thread shortly after the draft (tried a quick search but couldn't find it right now), but there was an attempt for a 3-way trade between Calgary, Edmonton and CBJ in swapping draft picks.

It was clear that CBJ ranked Matthews and Laine as a tier above everyone else because there was a report about Jarmo exploring trading up in the draft (Toronto and Winnipeg rightfully weren't interested).

But, it's also clear that CBJ had PLD as their firm #3 player in the draft and did not want to trade down if it meant losing him. One of the big speculated reasons the 3-way trade fell apart is that Vancouver also liked PLD and CBJ found out it was likely they were going to take him at 5. So, Columbus did not want to drop to 6 and lose PLD.

That meant the only option is to drop to 4, and there would be no incentive or reason for EDM to do that.

So, Jarmo decided whatever assets he could have gotten by dropping to 6 wasn't worth the difference between PLD and the player that would be left there at 6, so he went ahead and just pulled the trigger on the guy he wanted.

You can argue the decision in hindsight - Tkachuk looks great so far - but I can certainly see based on CBJ's prospect rankings at the time why there was no deal to be made.

 

[CBJx614]

There is a large segment of this board that tends to canonize whoever the Jackets take as a first round pick. To these posters Ryan Murray is still first pairing shutdown dman. Wennberg is still a first line center despite the fact that it is doubtful he will ever score 20 goals in a season or have an FO percentage over 50%. Now comes PDL who MUST, absolutely MUST, be the long awaited first line center. Typical response.

But I am reading more objective review in this thread of PDL's performance that suggests he may be no more than a solid defensive first third line center. That is ok. If someone can push Dubie down to fourth line center, that is fine with me. But for some of you, give it up, every CBJ first pick is not an All-Star. Werenski, yes. But not every other one.

The fact that you already write off Wennberg as never being able to be a 1st line C because he won't score 20G and won't ever have a +50% FO at 22-23 year-old tells me all I need to know about your ability to judge talent...


NOBODY knows how these players turn out. That's why players like Jaime Benn make it to the 6th.

 

[EDM]

Boone you are a prime example of what I was saying. I have not written him off at all. I am waiting to see what he does when given a chance in the NHL. But I am NOT like you and others who hypnotize yourselves into believing that he is some kind of wonder kind before he plays a minute in an NHL game.

 

[DarkandStormy]

NOBODY knows how these players turn out. That's why players like Jaime Benn make it to the 6th.

Benn was selected in the spot that was originally OUR pick. Gawd.

 

[Crede777]

Pssst...it's possible there were no star players on the board at #3.

I'd say it's technically possible but it's EXTREMELY unlikely given the depth of every draft up until about 5 years ago when it's been too early to tell. I'd feel comfortable saying there's at least 5 in every draft.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I'd say it's technically possible but it's EXTREMELY unlikely given the depth of every draft up until about 5 years ago when it's been too early to tell. I'd feel comfortable saying there's at least 5 in every draft.

Then you use the term "star" loosely. Presuming even just a 12-year career (age 30) that means there'd be 60 star players + all of those guys who are stars continuing to play past the age of 30.

 

[CBJx614]

Boone you are a prime example of what I was saying. I have not written him off at all. I am waiting to see what he does when given a chance in the NHL. But I am NOT like you and others who hypnotize yourselves into believing that he is some kind of wonder kind before he plays a minute in an NHL game.

I don't think he's going to be some wonder kid. I think just like anyone else who didn't have a spot last year and even everyone who did, needs to fight for a spot in camp and every time you touch the ice throughout the season.

PLD, just like Abramov, just like Gavrikov and just like Bjorkstrand needs to earn his spot. Bjorkstrand is a prime example of everybody thinking he was ready only to not make the team.

However I have said I think if he makes the team it'll be in a top 9 role(minute wise). If he impresses Torts during camp he can solidfy himself on the roster opening night. I think PLD has Johansen upside, I mean he's already at his size. Just like Puljujaarvi, he needs to learn how to use his size and maintain speed and acceleration.

Benn was selected in the spot that was originally OUR pick. Gawd.

Knowing our scouts we still would have missed on the pick.

 

[SavesEmNot]

Knowing our scouts we still would have missed on the pick.

Or we'd have drafted him, but he might not have developed into as good of a player.

 

[Crede777]

Then you use the term "star" loosely. Presuming even just a 12-year career (age 30) that means there'd be 60 star players + all of those guys who are stars continuing to play past the age of 30.

For as loosely as I'm using the term "star," there's still a significant distinction between a "star" and a "3rd line player."

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Knowing our scouts we still would have missed on the pick.

Or we'd have drafted him, but he might not have developed into as good of a player.

In any case, the CBJ organization would have been proven inept.

 

[DarkandStormy]

For as loosely as I'm using the term "star," there's still a significant distinction between a "star" and a "3rd line player."

Good thing PLD's fate isn't sealed yet.

 

[Crede777]

Good thing PLD's fate isn't sealed yet.

I thought we were talking about expectations versus reality. In reality PLD might become a star or a 3rd liner (or a complete bust and not even play in the NHL).

But based on draft position and his pre-draft production, I think the expectation when he was selected was that he'll become a quality top line center (or star if you will). If reality is less than the expectation, then that's a disappointment.

 

[Monk]

If reality is less than the expectation, then that's a disappointment.

And that still doesn't make the pick at the time bad or wrong.

 

[LetsGOJackets!!]

And that still doesn't make the pick at the time bad or wrong.

I agree with Monk

If you were my kids in the backseat of the truck we would now be at radio silence.. sit back listen to the radio and zip it.

How in the world can you call a young 20 year old a bust?.. you guys suck

 

[WannabeFinn]

I agree with Monk

If you were my kids in the backseat of the truck we would now be at radio silence.. sit back listen to the radio and zip it.

How in the world can you call a young 20 year old a bust?.. you guys suck

just to make it sound even more ridiculous, PLD is still 18

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

I stop by every now and again and read some of the topics and posts.

I have a serious question -- are some of you never happy with anything?

 

[Crede777]

And that still doesn't make the pick at the time bad or wrong.

Drafting a disappointment is a bad thing. It's not as bad as blatantly going against the information available at the time (like Kopitar vs. Brule) but it's still not judged favorably. Refer to any discussion on here or any article about high profile draft busts like Yakupov or Daigle.

I'd like to state, though, that I don't think PLD will disappoint or even bust. I'm just saying what would happen if he did. A GM usually has a good reason for drafting a player when they do. The GM is judged by how that player turns out.

 

[Monk]

Drafting a disappointment is a bad thing. It's not as bad as blatantly going against the information available at the time (like Kopitar vs. Brule) but it's still not judged favorably. Refer to any discussion on here or any article about high profile draft busts like Yakupov or Daigle.

I'd like to state, though, that I don't think PLD will disappoint or even bust. I'm just saying what would happen if he did. A GM usually has a good reason for drafting a player when they do. The GM is judged by how that player turns out.

So all you're saying is generally it's a good idea for GMs to try to draft the player available that they think will be the best NHL player and we as fans get the luxury of hindsight in order to evaluate those draft selections? I can agree with that.

 

[Monk]

Drafting a disappointment is a bad thing. It's not as bad as blatantly going against the information available at the time (like Kopitar vs. Brule) but it's still not judged favorably. Refer to any discussion on here or any article about high profile draft busts like Yakupov or Daigle.

I'd like to state, though, that I don't think PLD will disappoint or even bust. I'm just saying what would happen if he did. A GM usually has a good reason for drafting a player when they do. The GM is judged by how that player turns out.

Also, the GM isn't judged just by how the player turns out. They're judged a million times along the way. For instance, Yakupov isn't done developing. Neither is PLD. So why all the judgment now while their careers have barely even started?

 

[GameChanger]

For instance, Yakupov isn't done developing. Neither is PLD. So why all the judgment now while their careers have barely even started?

I see your point, but in Yakupov's case that wasn't a good pick no matter how good he might get one day, as the Oilers didn't get much out of him while he was playing there. As for PLD, anything is possible.

 

[Crede777]

So all you're saying is generally it's a good idea for GMs to try to draft the player available that they think will be the best NHL player and we as fans get the luxury of hindsight in order to evaluate those draft selections? I can agree with that.

Yes but I'm putting more of an emphasis on the procedural components of the decision.

It is important to have robust methods of scouting, assessing, and developing players that have been shown to be highly reliable and accurate. Since we as fans aren't privy to those processes, the only way to evaluate for us is hindsight judgment.

Is it better to be good or lucky? Well, to keep your job as a GM you need to be both. Otherwise you get replaced.