Speculation: Ownership/Management negotiates in bad faith?

[Crosside]

Do you know if Melnyk go to the bog meeting today

 

[Knave]

Do you know if Melnyk go to the bog meeting today

"Hey fellow owners, please let me move the team and give up a potential 1 billion dollar fee", "I can't afford to move to a new arena and am struggling to reach the cap floor but if I move, revenue will come in immediately and the arena I get in that unknown location will have incredibly cheap rent".

 

[coladin]

So if we go in your direction here in regards to the no passion, no demand, etc.

Wouldn’t that mean the Ottawa Senators need to figure out how to build the lack of passion and demand?

I mean I get it we’ve beaten this dead horse to death and we’re just not going to agree on what caused the issues to be where they are, but if the Ottawa Senators are cutting payroll and running a bare bones staff and lying about hiring people, I just can’t point a finger at an unsold playoff game as the underlying factor here.

Yes, I guess they have to figure out how to build the demand. Clearly, Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman weren’t enough. Neither was winning. Not an easy problem to solve is it?

I suppose it is easy just to blame them. Period

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

We had 20,011 for Alfredsson’s jersey retirement, when “official” capacity was 18,500, because the team sold a significant amount of standing room tickets. That number is also exaggerated to include “11” at the end.

During the playoffs, attendance was lower, but still averaged well above 18,000 per game.

Let’s take a look, game by game, shall we?

Game 1 vs Boston: 18,702
Game 2 vs Boston: 18,629
Game 5 vs Boston: 19,209
Game 1 vs NYR: 16,744
Game 2 vs NYR: 18,679
Game 5 vs NYR: 19,082
Game 3 vs Pit: 18,615
Game 4 vs Pit: 19,145
Game 6 vs Pit: 18,111

So 7 out of 9 games were above 100% capacity. Sound the alarm!!! Game 1 against the Rangers was also on April 27th, the week of flooding in Ottawa and Gatineau.

It’s funny how Alfredsson’s ceremony trumped it all though. He must mean a lot to this city and franchise. It’s a shame Melnyk alienated him, twice.

Was at that game! First row, home corner! Dzingel gave my son a puck!

Load of fun!

 

[BatherSeason]

Yes, I guess they have to figure out how to build the demand. Clearly, Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman weren’t enough. Neither was winning. Not an easy problem to solve is it?

I suppose it is easy just to blame them. Period

One of their many flawed business decisions was failing to market their superstars properly. This is a new era of hockey fan you are trying to sell tickets to. Market the skill players and not the "glue guys".

They still don't get it. Get Boro's face out of every bus stop and get Chabot and Tkachuk out there.

 

[DaveMatthew]

Yes, I guess they have to figure out how to build the demand. Clearly, Karlsson, Stone, Hoffman weren’t enough. Neither was winning. Not an easy problem to solve is it?

I suppose it is easy just to blame them. Period

I suppose icing a last place team and having the owner put out a cringeworthy take on Between Two Ferns is the solution.

Maybe the team should move.

 

[JD1]

Oh my lord. The noise in this thread.

It's pretty simple. Forget the papering. Forget the attendance. Forget all the reasons. Go look at the Forbes gate revenue. We lag behind.

You can bitch and moan and cry and complain and stomp your feet all you want. We've pretty much always lagged behind on gate revenue.

It'd be great to have a white night gazillionaire ride in on a horse and spend like crazy. It'd be nice to win the lottery too. Neither is going to happen.

This franchise needs butts in seats at league average prices. What will an ownership change do? it might create a short term euphoria but we'll be right back where we started in 5 years unless attendance picks up, stays up and ticket prices increase.

Has mgmt been stellar? Nope. Not at all. But we've had winning teams for 2 decades and we still haven't created much loyalty. Not a lot of stick with the team thru thick and thin.

I don't like Eugene. I truly don't. I hope he sells. But a lot of guys on here are f***ing kidding themselves if everything that is wrong is Melnyk's fault. Now we're adding flooding to the mix of reasons. Geezus.

 

[Sens]

Even at the Sens worse they substantially outdrew Winnipeg...

 

[DaveMatthew]

Oh my lord. The noise in this thread.

It's pretty simple. Forget the papering. Forget the attendance. Forget all the reasons. Go look at the Forbes gate revenue. We lag behind.

You can ***** and moan and cry and complain and stomp your feet all you want. We've pretty much always lagged behind on gate revenue.

It'd be great to have a white night gazillionaire ride in on a horse and spend like crazy. It'd be nice to win the lottery too. Neither is going to happen.

This franchise needs butts in seats at league average prices. What will an ownership change do? it might create a short term euphoria but we'll be right back where we started in 5 years unless attendance picks up, stays up and ticket prices increase.

Has mgmt been stellar? Nope. Not at all. But we've had winning teams for 2 decades and we still haven't created much loyalty. Not a lot of stick with the team they thick and thin.

I don't like Eugene. I truly don't. I hope he sells. But a lot of guys on here are ****ing kidding themselves if everything that is wrong is Melnyk's fault. Now we're adding flooding to the mix of reasons. Geezus.

Well it’d be one thing if our only problem was not being able to sign 10+ million dollar players. But we can’t even hire a credible President. That’s beyond butts and the seats, and that is 100% Melnyk’s fault. He can’t even get guys to interview. Buying tickets also won’t make Pierre Dorian a savvy, experienced executive who knows how to string together a sentence.

Also poor attendance is not an Ottawa phenomenon. Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg have all gone through it. The only Canadian markets immune are Toronto and Montreal.

 

[stempniaksen]

The arena downtown was the golden goose. Would have been much easier to have consistent sell-outs from a more central location, while also raising ticket prices (something I truly believe would be palatable for the market as long as it doesn't come with a drive out to Kanata).

I'm not versed enough in the in and out's of the Lebreton deal, outside of the snippets I hear on my own time, to make any ironclad claims about the deal from Melnyk's POV. What I do know is that a handful of the major issues that have plagued this team from the very beginning would have been minimised at Lebreton.

This team isn't going to magically fix it's issues staying in Kanata, that much I know for sure.

 

[NorthCoast]

Oh my lord. The noise in this thread.

It's pretty simple. Forget the papering. Forget the attendance. Forget all the reasons. Go look at the Forbes gate revenue. We lag behind.

You can ***** and moan and cry and complain and stomp your feet all you want. We've pretty much always lagged behind on gate revenue.

It'd be great to have a white night gazillionaire ride in on a horse and spend like crazy. It'd be nice to win the lottery too. Neither is going to happen.

This franchise needs butts in seats at league average prices. What will an ownership change do? it might create a short term euphoria but we'll be right back where we started in 5 years unless attendance picks up, stays up and ticket prices increase.

Has mgmt been stellar? Nope. Not at all. But we've had winning teams for 2 decades and we still haven't created much loyalty. Not a lot of stick with the team thru thick and thin.

I don't like Eugene. I truly don't. I hope he sells. But a lot of guys on here are ****ing kidding themselves if everything that is wrong is Melnyk's fault. Now we're adding flooding to the mix of reasons. Geezus.

First, I agree that not everything is Melnyks fault. I posted a list of seven ways that sens could uplift revenue a few pages back and clearly indicated ones Melnyk has no control over, like USD-CDN exchange rate.

I think you may be underestimating what an ownership change can do though. Let’s try a different angle:

1: do you think that fans could spend more (say another 10 mil) at the gate?

2: do you think that the sens are able to influence consumer behaviour through marketing and promotion?

3: why are they not using 2 to achieve 1?


It’s pretty simple, either you believe that the market/fans can contribute more or you believe that we are capped out and there is no more money left.

But, If you believe that there is more money in the fan base, AND if you believe that sens marketing can influence this spending, then logically, the marketing team isn’t doing as good of a job as a team that could reach the untapped spend that exists in the market.

What am I missing?


Btw: I think you are a little hard on the fans. It’s not like other fan bases haven’t put away their wallets during rebuilds and bad owners. I’m not talking Arizona either. Pittsburg, Chicago...and half the teams in the league have missed selling out playoff games.

And don’t get me started on per capita spending

 

[Micklebot]

Oh my lord. The noise in this thread.

It's pretty simple. Forget the papering. Forget the attendance. Forget all the reasons. Go look at the Forbes gate revenue. We lag behind.

You can ***** and moan and cry and complain and stomp your feet all you want. We've pretty much always lagged behind on gate revenue.

It'd be great to have a white night gazillionaire ride in on a horse and spend like crazy. It'd be nice to win the lottery too. Neither is going to happen.

This franchise needs butts in seats at league average prices. What will an ownership change do? it might create a short term euphoria but we'll be right back where we started in 5 years unless attendance picks up, stays up and ticket prices increase.

Has mgmt been stellar? Nope. Not at all. But we've had winning teams for 2 decades and we still haven't created much loyalty. Not a lot of stick with the team thru thick and thin.

I don't like Eugene. I truly don't. I hope he sells. But a lot of guys on here are ****ing kidding themselves if everything that is wrong is Melnyk's fault. Now we're adding flooding to the mix of reasons. Geezus.

Have we always been lagging behind on revenues (obviously this depends on your definition of lagging behind)?

In 2017-2018, we were 25th, roughly 80% of the league average.
2016-17 we were 20th at roughly 90% of the average.
2015-16 we were 20th at 86%
2014-15 we were again 20th at 90%
2013-14 we were tied for 13th at 95% (I think the exchange rate was better at this point and earlier)
2012-13 tied for 13th at 95%
2011-12 13th at 100%
2010-11 12th at 97%

That's as far back as the way back machine has the site archived, they may have used a different URL before that.

Honestly, the forbes data suggests revenue has only been a problem very recently when you consider that historically the top 3 teams (Toronto, Mtl and NYR) inflate the average quite a bit.

If the exchange rate bounces back, that will help, but this recent dive isn't because of the exchange rate which has been relatively stable over the last 4 years, and I don't think it's the market. The team has just done a lot of unpopular things lately.

 

[coladin]

I suppose icing a last place team and having the owner put out a cringeworthy take on Between Two Ferns is the solution.

Maybe the team should move.

I am talking about 2016-2017.

 

[NorthCoast]

1. New stadium has potential to add revenue plus much more revenue to owner outside of team finances. (10-30 mil)
2. Exchange rate is more likely to move up than down (10-15 mil)
3. New ownership with better management could better maximise revenues in the market (10 mil)
4. New ownership could decide to relieve debt (okay not Ottawa specific, but Ottawa owner specific) (10-15 mil)
5. The team sucks. Not judging, all rebuilding teams suck. And all rebuilding teams see attendance drops. Unless we have been cursed, it is reasonable to expect that on average over the next few decades the team will be able to place better than last. Cross your fingers.
6. Local TV deal increases have been a significant factor in recent NHL revenue growth. Yes, Rogers 5 bil is a lot too, but pretty much every canadian market and many US markets were given huge new local TV deals as advertisers scramble to maintain audience reach in the age of cable cutting. Maybe these increases continue but IMO they went through a big leap and going forward it will be more incremental increases. The bigger revenue increases will come from new US TV Deal, oversee licensing, league-wide sponsorship, Olympics/World Cup, gambling, etc. In other words, there is room for optimism that more new revenue will come from shared sources than local, and this helps sens keep pace with other teams.
7. New CBA. I hope that whoever the owner is, they better walk into the pre-CBA negotiation meetings with the other owners and declare a giant "wtf guy, how is the cap supposed to create parity if large markets can exert their financial advantage over smaller markets by leveraging this advantage to offer front-loaded bonus contracts that smaller markets will not be able to keep up with". I don't know how open to this message the larger markets that drive the majority of the revenue will be. But I see it getting better, at least even a little, before it gets worse.

Forbes reported sens rev at 124 mil last year. Based on my perfect analysis with absolutely no holes in it, the team probably dropped down 5-10 mil this year...or lets say 115 mil. Edmonton was at 145mil.

I think that the Ottawa market can get their and even beyond.

But @coladin made a great point. If you can't make some of the above happen faster than other markets are improving their rev...we will always be playing catch-up.

And this is why Melnyk is so frustrating. Not because he won't spend more of his money. Not because he traded EK. Not because he can't get along with Alfie. Not because he threatened to move the team and does stupid interviews between two ferns with our 6th D...

It's because I simply have lost almost all confidence in his ability as an owner to make a dent on the 7 issues listed above that we need long-term to maybe be competitive outside of blind luck. He can't effect # 2, and other than some wins under #6, I just don't have much faith in him resolving the other issues at a time when we need to get some wins on the board against these before the other markets get to far out of reach.

Here’s my list of revenue issues.

 

[coladin]

Well it’d be one thing if our only problem was not being able to sign 10+ million dollar players. But we can’t even hire a credible President. That’s beyond butts and the seats, and that is 100% Melnyk’s fault. He can’t even get guys to interview. Buying tickets also won’t make Pierre Dorian a savvy, experienced executive who knows how to string together a sentence.

Also poor attendance is not an Ottawa phenomenon. Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg have all gone through it. The only Canadian markets immune are Toronto and Montreal.

Poor attendance while being a playoff team is an Ottawa phenomenon. Ridiculed nationally about it. Can’t seem to find anything on the other franchises.

By the way, Barkov tonight thrashed the Florida fan base for lack of support. So I guess players do care. Even in Miami

 

[GrantLemons]

Imagine how different things would be if we just would have sold out game 1 vs the Rangers.

We'd probably be holding our cup parade through downtown tomorrow.

If the franchise ever moves, that will be the straw that broke the camel's back.

 

[Micklebot]

First, I agree that not everything is Melnyks fault. I posted a list of seven ways that sens could uplift revenue a few pages back and clearly indicated ones Melnyk has no control over, like USD-CDN exchange rate.

I think you may be underestimating what an ownership change can do though. Let’s try a different angle:

1: do you think that fans could spend more (say another 10 mil) at the gate?

2: do you think that the sens are able to influence consumer behaviour through marketing and promotion?

3: why are they not using 2 to achieve 1?


It’s pretty simple, either you believe that the market/fans can contribute more or you believe that we are capped out and there is no more money left.

But, If you believe that there is more money in the fan base, AND if you believe that sens marketing can influence this spending, then logically, the marketing team isn’t doing as good of a job as a team that could reach the untapped spend that exists in the market.

What am I missing?


Btw: I think you are a little hard on the fans. It’s not like other fan bases haven’t put away their wallets during rebuilds and bad owners. I’m not talking Arizona either. Pittsburg, Chicago...and half the teams in the league have missed selling out playoff games.

And don’t get me started on per capita spending

Again using forbes numbers,


Gates by year:

2017-18 35m
2016-17 46m
2015-16 36m
2014-15 41m
2013-14 41m
2012-13 29m (lockout shortened)
2011-12 50m
2010-11 46m

 

[coladin]

Here’s my list of revenue issues.

You didn’t include the fans in your revenue issues.

 

[coladin]

Imagine how different things would be if we just would have sold out game 1 vs the Rangers.

We'd probably be holding our cup parade through downtown tomorrow.

If the franchise ever moves, that will be the straw that broke the camel's back.

Yep, still don’t get it. Why bother .

Those empty seats reflect probably 2k season tickets btw, no one was renewing.

Don’t be daft

 

[West Coast Eagles]

Oh my lord. The noise in this thread.

It's pretty simple. Forget the papering. Forget the attendance. Forget all the reasons. Go look at the Forbes gate revenue. We lag behind.

You can ***** and moan and cry and complain and stomp your feet all you want. We've pretty much always lagged behind on gate revenue.

It'd be great to have a white night gazillionaire ride in on a horse and spend like crazy. It'd be nice to win the lottery too. Neither is going to happen.

This franchise needs butts in seats at league average prices. What will an ownership change do? it might create a short term euphoria but we'll be right back where we started in 5 years unless attendance picks up, stays up and ticket prices increase.

Has mgmt been stellar? Nope. Not at all. But we've had winning teams for 2 decades and we still haven't created much loyalty. Not a lot of stick with the team thru thick and thin.

I don't like Eugene. I truly don't. I hope he sells. But a lot of guys on here are ****ing kidding themselves if everything that is wrong is Melnyk's fault. Now we're adding flooding to the mix of reasons. Geezus.

My biggest issues are:
- budget allocation: for instance when Trotz became available I would have been 100% ok if the team added a 2nd rounder to Smith and traded them for a 7th if that's what it took to ultimately have no net impact to the P&L and pick up a coach like that. Other experienced coaches fit here too. I'm not asking them to be a cap team.
- the abysmal communication from the organization.

Also as a side note, whilst we lag in revenue, since 2009 our operating income is 77M in the black.

 

[GrantLemons]

Yep, still don’t get it. Why bother .

Those empty seats reflect probably 2k season tickets btw, no one was renewing.

Don’t be daft

Yea it's crazy. The team was so pro active in that offseason by signing Nate Thompson to ensure the buzz carried over into next season.

How did it all go wrong?

 

[Micklebot]

Yea it's crazy. The team was so pro active in that offseason by signing Nate Thompson to ensure the buzz carried over into next season.

How did it all go wrong?

Hey man, they replaced Methot with Oduya too,

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

First, I agree that not everything is Melnyks fault. I posted a list of seven ways that sens could uplift revenue a few pages back and clearly indicated ones Melnyk has no control over, like USD-CDN exchange rate.

I think you may be underestimating what an ownership change can do though. Let’s try a different angle:

1: do you think that fans could spend more (say another 10 mil) at the gate?

2: do you think that the sens are able to influence consumer behaviour through marketing and promotion?

3: why are they not using 2 to achieve 1?


It’s pretty simple, either you believe that the market/fans can contribute more or you believe that we are capped out and there is no more money left.

But, If you believe that there is more money in the fan base, AND if you believe that sens marketing can influence this spending, then logically, the marketing team isn’t doing as good of a job as a team that could reach the untapped spend that exists in the market.

What am I missing?


Btw: I think you are a little hard on the fans. It’s not like other fan bases haven’t put away their wallets during rebuilds and bad owners. I’m not talking Arizona either. Pittsburg, Chicago...and half the teams in the league have missed selling out playoff games.

And don’t get me started on per capita spending

I have always thought the marketing is poor for the team. If we benchmark against other teams, I bet we need at least double the marketing because of our location between Montréal and Toronto. It is obvious in my opinion that we lack the finesse in marketing and in the local media.

Sad state of affairs.

Our cheap owner needs to wake up and smell the burning tires.

 

[NorthCoast]

I am talking about 2016-2017.

When they stopped papering.

Doesn’t the following scenario sound plausible:

- 2013: EM is ride high from a high Canadian dollar
- dollar drops but at the same time local tv deals kick-in
- Still, EM wants to halve his fake and eat it too
- tells team to stop giving away free tickets because we need to sell more to make up for the lost exchange rate revenue
- fans don’t meet the call
- em gets pissed and thinks the team might be better in another market...where he could sell the extra tickets

Chaos ensues.


The exchange rate was bad luck, but the reaction if the above is true was not great either. You can’t just change pricing and expect demand to follow. The product really hadn’t changed much to support higher prices and/or greater supply.

Again, I agree that this is just one issue among several and not all EM related. I bumped my list of revenue issues above.

 

[GrantLemons]

I have always thought the marketing is poor for the team. If we benchmark against other teams, I bet we need at least double the marketing because of our location between Montréal and Toronto. It is obvious in my opinion that we lack the finesse in marketing and in the local media.

Sad state of affairs.

Our cheap owner needs to wake up and smell the burning tires.

Oh he smells them alright. He's huffing them like a bag of f***ing gas.