Confirmed with Link: Owen Tippett contract extension, 8 years x $6.2M

[deadhead]

Foundational would mean elite/upper echelon players you build the roster around, Giroux and Couturier types.

Tippett is a good middle six possession driving winger. A good organization drafts and develops those guys at a high enough level that they don't feel compelled to marry themselves to them for a decade at a time (and thus finds cheap production spots on the roster). This feels a bit like try hard justification on the Giroux trade more than anything to me.

Flyers will have a lot of cap room the next four to five years. You can't roll it over, how would you use it? You can use some to sweeten trades, but with the cap rising, it will have far less value.

You could sign free agents, but most are 29 and older, not exactly the right choice for a rebuild.

Or you could extend your own players who are 23-26, and if they fall off at the end of their contracts, it'll be with a much higher cap and easier to trade them if you have better young players.

 

[BernieParent]

What's a foundational player?
A top six winger doesn't quality?

If he ends up on the 3rd line it won't be his play but extending TK, Michkov coming over, Farabee and Foerster taking the top 2 LW spots. In which case, "why me worry?"

So not a top six winger. I guess you answered your own question.

 

[deadhead]

So not a top six winger. I guess you answered your own question.

He's scoring at a below average 1st line rate, his mediocre defense lowers his value to some extent, as does not playing on the PK. So that still comes out to a solid 2RW.

Flyers are very deep at RW, question is which players can move to LW.

I think Foerster may end better than Tippett if he improves his skating a bit, he shows the shot against Boston we've been waiting for, quick release. Otherwise high IQ, play making skills, physical along the boards, fundamentals better than expected and he just turned 22. Has a chance to be special.

TK, Brink, Michkov, three skilled offensive RWs, that makes 5 RWs.
Farabee who is merely 3rd in PP/60 among NHL forwards, 31st in G/60 at LW.
Rizzo and Barkey might be candidates to move to LW.

They need one young top 6 physical two way center to fill out this top nine, and then one prospect they can groom behind Couts. I think Frost is fine, I just don't want to match him up against top opposing centers, especially the bigger ones.

 

[Hexxxy]

The difference between 27 goals and 40 goals is, after all, just a modest 1.5x improvement in productivity.

His pace prior to injury was 32 goals over 82...

 

[Beef Invictus]

Flyers will have a lot of cap room the next four to five years. You can't roll it over, how would you use it? You can use some to sweeten trades, but with the cap rising, it will have far less value.

You could sign free agents, but most are 29 and older, not exactly the right choice for a rebuild.

Or you could extend your own players who are 23-26, and if they fall off at the end of their contracts, it'll be with a much higher cap and easier to trade them if you have better young players.

You can weaponize it for the rebuild, but they aren't actually doing that.

They are also going to sign FAs.


It's our beautiful culture and heritage!

 

[BernieParent]

He's scoring at a below average 1st line rate, his mediocre defense lowers his value to some extent, as does not playing on the PK. So that still comes out to a solid 2RW.

Flyers are very deep at RW, question is which players can move to LW.

I think Foerster may end better than Tippett if he improves his skating a bit, he shows the shot against Boston we've been waiting for, quick release. Otherwise high IQ, play making skills, physical along the boards, fundamentals better than expected and he just turned 22. Has a chance to be special.

TK, Brink, Michkov, three skilled offensive RWs, that makes 5 RWs.
Farabee who is merely 3rd in PP/60 among NHL forwards, 31st in G/60 at LW.
Rizzo and Barkey might be candidates to move to LW.

They need one young top 6 physical two way center to fill out this top nine, and then one prospect they can groom behind Couts. I think Frost is fine, I just don't want to match him up against top opposing centers, especially the bigger ones.

Thanks for your reply, dead. You have highlighted the reason why I wonder about the wisdom of signing Tippett as a foundational player. Arguably, the Flyers' superstar-in-waiting will lock down 1RW for many years, and if the Michkov train goes off the tracks, then it is way back to square 1. Then there's the currently most talented player, Konecny. I would be shocked if Briere moves him at the TDL, and I fully anticipate that Konecny will be re-signed to a big contract (cap and term); however, if Briere does trade Konecny, then the Tippett signing makes more sense. So in all likelihood, the top-6 RW is locked up for years to come.

LW is more fluid. I agree with you that Tippett likely won't supplant Farabee, so maybe second line is his reasonable expectation.

As you also noted, the Flyers' glaring need is 1C, with Michkov's arrival setting the timeline. Ideally, Briere and gang land a young dynamic offensive wizard who can slot in at 2C while Couturier is capable of carrying the 1C load and then flip them in 3-5 years. Running 1C - Couturier - Frost would turn a long-time weakness into a strength for an emerging Cup-competitive team.

But Tippett isn't a C and is one of several top-6 W candidates. Thus, my nonplussed response to his contract.

 

[deadhead]

Thing to remember with the surplus cap the rest of the decade, when these extensions get to year 6 or so, we're looking at a 30 year old player with a 6% cap hit with a rising cap - so unless Tippett collapses, he'll have significant trade value at that point if young wingers like Tuomaala or Gendron or ??? are pushing for PT.

This is far different than say NJ investing a lot of cap room in Hamilton at 29 and Palat and Haula at 32 - those are win now moves that can stick you with an unmovable asset (think Atkinson).

 

[GapToothedWonder]

His pace prior to injury was 32 goals over 82...

Nothing like assuming the super streaky goalscorer will continue thr pace right at the end of a goal scoring streak. 0% chance he goes on the type of cold streaks he has consistently gone on his whole career.

 

[Rebels57]

Nothing like assuming the super streaky goalscorer will continue thr pace right at the end of a goal scoring streak. 0% chance he goes on the type of cold streaks he has consistently gone on his whole career.

He paced for 30 last year so I think 32 is reasonable with the better team around him.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

He paced for 30 last year so I think 32 is reasonable with the better team around him.

Yeah I'm not saying he can't do it. But the guy I responded to acting like that 32 was locked up when Tippett already has like 3 streaks of 7 plus games with only 1 goal this season is a stretch.

This is the highest Tippett has paced all year, maybe he gets 32 over a full 82, maybe not, but judging a streaky goalscorer after his hottest streak of the year probably isn't super wise.

Before this 6 goals in 7 games he was pacing for 25. If he goes through another 1 in 7-8 game stretch he's right back down to like 26.

 

[Ironmanrulez]

he will and you'll say you always knew he'd be a 40 goal scorer

i like when "new" member think they can shit on board veterans without having any reason to do that! Beef is absolutely critical about this team. But most of the time its fully "earned" by the franchise!

But new Members dont take their time to understand the community before writing such bullshit!

Great work NORMY

 

[deadhead]

That's why I prorated Tippett's year and a half to a full season, bigger sample.
He's scoring at a low 1 line, high 2nd line rate during that stretch.

No guarantees, but given how flawed his game still is, there is at least as much upside as there is downside risk.
He'll never be as polished as TK, on the other hand, he's a lot bigger and stronger and won't get knocked around the way TK does when he ventures into dirty areas.

 

[Tripod]

Goal scorers are streaky. This is not new.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

Goal scorers are streaky. This is not new.

Agreed, I'm not knocking him that he's streaky, it is what it is. I'm just saying extrapolating his season totals after his best 7 game stretch of the season probably won't end up being super accurate.

 

[Hexxxy]

Nothing like assuming the super streaky goalscorer will continue thr pace right at the end of a goal scoring streak. 0% chance he goes on the type of cold streaks he has consistently gone on his whole career.

Tippett scored 27 goals in 77 games in 22-23... (when he started to flash).

Your points already priced into the big picture.

 

[Hexxxy]

Yeah I'm not saying he can't do it. But the guy I responded to acting like that 32 was locked up when Tippett already has like 3 streaks of 7 plus games with only 1 goal this season is a stretch.

This is the highest Tippett has paced all year, maybe he gets 32 over a full 82, maybe not, but judging a streaky goalscorer after his hottest streak of the year probably isn't super wise.

Before this 6 goals in 7 games he was pacing for 25. If he goes through another 1 in 7-8 game stretch he's right back down to like 26.

No one said the words "locked up." Tippett "pacing for" a certain number of goals or relative range this year, backed up by what he paced for and achieved last year is not particularly unwise, it's just based on the data.

 

[Curufinwe]

I do like that OT has shown he can play the left side this season.

Tippett-Couturier-Konecny
Farabee-Frost-Foerster
Lycksell-Laughton-Atkinson
Cates-Poehling-Hathaway

Nic D

 

[Rebels57]

I just like the Tippett isn't a boring player to watch. He's not elite but he at least provides some occasional entertainment.

 

[TCTC]

I just like the Tippett isn't a boring player to watch. He's not elite but he at least provides some occasional entertainment.

Yeah, he adds unpredictability. That's nice to have on the team and fun to watch.

 

[Flybynite]

100% of the shots you don't take, don't go in.

 

[Embiid]

It's our beautiful culture and heritage!

World UNESCO Heritage List nominee for sure....

 

[scumpup]

10 team no trade lists are okay if you're worth it. NMC or NTC clauses are too much unless you're getting a discount or theyre the kind of player you dont want to leave anyway.

 

[scumpup]

Thanks for your reply, dead. You have highlighted the reason why I wonder about the wisdom of signing Tippett as a foundational player. Arguably, the Flyers' superstar-in-waiting will lock down 1RW for many years, and if the Michkov train goes off the tracks, then it is way back to square 1. Then there's the currently most talented player, Konecny. I would be shocked if Briere moves him at the TDL, and I fully anticipate that Konecny will be re-signed to a big contract (cap and term); however, if Briere does trade Konecny, then the Tippett signing makes more sense. So in all likelihood, the top-6 RW is locked up for years to come.

LW is more fluid. I agree with you that Tippett likely won't supplant Farabee, so maybe second line is his reasonable expectation.

As you also noted, the Flyers' glaring need is 1C, with Michkov's arrival setting the timeline. Ideally, Briere and gang land a young dynamic offensive wizard who can slot in at 2C while Couturier is capable of carrying the 1C load and then flip them in 3-5 years. Running 1C - Couturier - Frost would turn a long-time weakness into a strength for an emerging Cup-competitive team.

But Tippett isn't a C and is one of several top-6 W candidates. Thus, my nonplussed response to his contract.

As couturier ages, and doesnt have Giroux or Voracek on his wings anymore, The flaws in a player like Couturier become more obvious. He doesn't score, he simply is like having a 3rd playdriving Defenseman on the ice. He's definitely a + player but not an offensive playdriver, and does not create chances the way frost does. I think Couturier will be glued to this team for our future cup run, (maybe in fantasy land where G comes back) we have him on 3rd line as a mega shutdown line and have him running Penalty Kills.

Frost is our longterm 2C answer, and him farabee, tippett, and/or konecny should be our 2nd line built around Frost. Our REAL needs are a 1C, 1LW, and 1D. We are LOADED on winger and bottom 4 defensemen. The addition of Michkov, a 1C, and a 1D alone would rocket this roster into a cup contender.

If I was GM I'd be scrambling to find a 1C because Couturier is going to fall off a cliff soon and wont be able to play 1C minutes anymore. He will still be a viable Center for PK of course, but his usage WILL decline out of necessity. Last chance for getting a 1C before we are in draft pick hell is probably somehow getting Connor McDavid to come here after his oilers contract ends to play with Michkov. If we somehow win the lottery we can pick in the top 5 (15 -> 5) but otherwise this is a precarious situation.

 

[deadhead]

Boston replaces Bergeron with freakin' Coyle and keeps winning.

They need a top six center, but if you surround a ROR type with top wings like say Michkov and TK, he doesn't have to be elite to be highly productive.

The tank train left town in 2012 and 2018, that's when the Flyers could have torn the team apart, accumulated a bunch of 1st rd picks and turned it around in 3-4 years. Now it would take 2 years just to dismantle the team and get value, and another few years to draft and a few more years to build the core.

People who want to tank now basically want to trade their young core, b/c that's the only way to be bad enough to draft in the top 5 for a few years, which means you'd then have to rebuild a young core, drafting 2-3 top 5 players isn't enough to build a team. So you're talking something on the order of 5-7 years AFTER taking a couple years to blow it up.

 

[BernieParent]

As couturier ages, and doesnt have Giroux or Voracek on his wings anymore, The flaws in a player like Couturier become more obvious. He doesn't score, he simply is like having a 3rd playdriving Defenseman on the ice. He's definitely a + player but not an offensive playdriver, and does not create chances the way frost does. I think Couturier will be glued to this team for our future cup run, (maybe in fantasy land where G comes back) we have him on 3rd line as a mega shutdown line and have him running Penalty Kills.

Frost is our longterm 2C answer, and him farabee, tippett, and/or konecny should be our 2nd line built around Frost. Our REAL needs are a 1C, 1LW, and 1D. We are LOADED on winger and bottom 4 defensemen. The addition of Michkov, a 1C, and a 1D alone would rocket this roster into a cup contender.

If I was GM I'd be scrambling to find a 1C because Couturier is going to fall off a cliff soon and wont be able to play 1C minutes anymore. He will still be a viable Center for PK of course, but his usage WILL decline out of necessity. Last chance for getting a 1C before we are in draft pick hell is probably somehow getting Connor McDavid to come here after his oilers contract ends to play with Michkov. If we somehow win the lottery we can pick in the top 5 (15 -> 5) but otherwise this is a precarious situation.

Thanks, scumpup. My money would be on the FO planning to make a big splashy trade for someone like Eichel in 2 years, but an interesting situation may arise with Buffalo trying to fit multiple talented centres onto their roster in the coming years. They have locked up Thompson and Cozens long-term and they have Mittelstadt and Krebs on their roster and Ostlund, Savoie and Wahlberg in their pipeline.