Overrated Prospect Pool

[MatchesMalone]

My argument is that the system is chock full of guys destined for 3rd or 4th line roles - if you think that is a recipe for success beyond next year, good on you, I appreciate your optimism. My argument is that the Sens have drafted "safe" over "skill" every opportunity they've had. Without high end skill this team is going to be bad far beyond next season.

What you say and what your argument shows are very different.

 

[Spartachat]

Is anyone else worried that Belleville is worst in their division and has only won one of its first five games. I thought we had one of the best prospect pools in the league.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Is anyone else worried that Belleville is worst in their division and has only won one of its first five games. I thought we had one of the best prospect pools in the league.

Not yet. Too early. Blues won the cup last year. Had a horrendous start. Way too early to panic over a new bunch of kids playing a new system

 

[tardigrade81]

Overrated?

tom Brady this year. Been average but that defense has been outstanding.

I did this correctly right?

 

[Boud]

Is anyone else worried that Belleville is worst in their division and has only won one of its first five games. I thought we had one of the best prospect pools in the league.

Our prospect pool is average but it's concerning to see players like Davdisson and Veronneau who are clearly good players that could help Belleville getting scratched.

 

[Alex1234]

We are 29th in the AHL and 30th in the NHL but the future is bright don't worry

 

[Cosmix]

We are 29th in the AHL and 30th in the NHL but the future is bright don't worry

I stopped worrying and grew to love the special sauce.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

Is anyone else worried that Belleville is worst in their division and has only won one of its first five games. I thought we had one of the best prospect pools in the league.

They need help on the backend, fast.

If they get that, it is early enough that they could recover

 

[Micklebot]

Not buying that. You just agreed that the Sens should have better prospects but state that the prospect pool cannot be judged by NHL/AHL standings. Arguably, the prospects that should be capable of moving into NHL roles sooner than later are in one of those two leagues already (there are always exceptions, kids that can jump right to the NHL and be impactful...I challenge you to name one in the Sens pool of prospects though). So by my reckoning you absolutely can judge the prospect pool by those standings. And the Sens pool is full of middling top 9 forwards because they play it safe in the draft. There are no game breakers in the system.

Your reconing is flawed. Ottawa isn't bad because our prospects are bad (there's really only one on the team and he's looked good). Bellevilles issue is primarilly the defence. Our top D prospects are playing in different leagues. Add one of Wolanin or Brannstrom to Belleville and they are winning more games but the pool isn't any better. Don't trade Ebert and keep Goloubef down and Belleville has more wins too. Doesn't change the quality of the pool though.

Judging a org pool by team success at the AHL and NHL level is flawed lazy analysis. It ignores college and European prospects and doesn't accout for the stage of development prospects are at.

 

[Xspyrit]

My argument is that the system is chock full of guys destined for 3rd or 4th line roles - if you think that is a recipe for success beyond next year, good on you, I appreciate your optimism. My argument is that the Sens have drafted "safe" over "skill" every opportunity they've had. Without high end skill this team is going to be bad far beyond next season.

So the question would be

None of these guys are or will be top-6 forwards/top-4 D-men?

Tkachuk-White-Brown-Batherson-Norris-Formenton-Balcers-Gruden-Davidsson-Pinto-Abramov-Crookshank
Chabot-Brannstrom-Wolanin-Thomson-JBD-Jaros-Lajoie-Alsing

You just need to hit on a few.... How does it matter if you have plenty of other guys "destined for 3rd or 4th line roles"? It's actually a positive because once you have your best 6 forwards/4 D-men, you still need quality depth to support them.

Can't stress enough about it but PATIENCE will be needed, lol do people actually have any idea of what is a rebuild? This was not a retool, it was a total firesale of the best team established talent in their prime. Melnyk would have even sold every veteran if there was no cap and if it didn't require to take some salary back

When the Sens "rebuilt" in 2011, Murray kept some key vets (Spezza, Michalek, Alfredsson, Gonchar, Foligno, Neil, Phillips, Kuba) to surround the young guys like Karlsson, Cowen, Turris, Regin, Zibanejad, Silfverberg, Hoffman, Rundblad, Wiercioch, etc

That's why the team made the playoffs both in 2011-12 and 2012-13. This time it's very different and forget about the playoffs this year and most likely next year. All we can do is hope they will be ready to at least contend for the playoffs by 2021-22. We should have all the talent necessary by then, but ownership change will be needed too.

Ottawa: 1-5-1
Belleville: 1-4-0

Very real possibility the Sens have the worst club in both leagues

It’s looking like the system is in the 25-31st range

lol that's some vintage Fuhr, like a vulture waiting for the perfect timing! But you already told me you're not that poster so maybe I'm just crazy

 

[Blotto71]

Your reconing is flawed. Ottawa isn't bad because our prospects are bad (there's really only one on the team and he's looked good). Bellevilles issue is primarilly the defence. Our top D prospects are playing in different leagues. Add one of Wolanin or Brannstrom to Belleville and they are winning more games but the pool isn't any better. Don't trade Ebert and keep Goloubef down and Belleville has more wins too. Doesn't change the quality of the pool though.

Judging a org pool by team success at the AHL and NHL level is flawed lazy analysis. It ignores college and European prospects and doesn't accout for the stage of development prospects are at.

So you are ignoring the point I conceded when I stated that there are exceptions to the best prospects being in the AHL? I challenged you to name one that could make the leap and have an impact - not a bottom 6 replaceable level player, but a legit top-6 impact player (or top 4 D if you prefer). My analysis though "lazy" can't be far off, you didn't name one, and I don't blame you, because there isn't one. Plenty of prospects in the Sens pool that will tap out as good 3rd liners or 4-6 D - and those types are needed. But there is no one that posseses the ability, or even a hint of being able to develop the ability, to change the pace of the game.

 

[MatchesMalone]

So you are ignoring the point I conceded when I stated that there are exceptions to the best prospects being in the AHL? I challenged you to name one that could make the leap and have an impact - not a bottom 6 replaceable level player, but a legit top-6 impact player (or top 4 D if you prefer). My analysis though "lazy" can't be far off, you didn't name one, and I don't blame you, because there isn't one. Plenty of prospects in the Sens pool that will tap out as good 3rd liners or 4-6 D - and those types are needed. But there is no one that posseses the ability, or even a hint of being able to develop the ability, to change the pace of the game.

And again, all your argument is showing is that we lack NHL-ready prospects. Has nothing to do with the quality of prospects.

Maybe this would help, Modus ponens - Wikipedia.

 

[Alex1234]

They need help on the backend, fast.

If they get that, it is early enough that they could recover

Hope you are right
They are 27th in GF and 28th in GA
Offence help seems needed also

 

[Micklebot]

So you are ignoring the point I conceded when I stated that there are exceptions to the best prospects being in the AHL? I challenged you to name one that could make the leap and have an impact - not a bottom 6 replaceable level player, but a legit top-6 impact player (or top 4 D if you prefer). My analysis though "lazy" can't be far off, you didn't name one, and I don't blame you, because there isn't one. Plenty of prospects in the Sens pool that will tap out as good 3rd liners or 4-6 D - and those types are needed. But there is no one that posseses the ability, or even a hint of being able to develop the ability, to change the pace of the game.

Making the leap today has nothing to do with the quality of a prospect long term. Pools are evaluated by long term projections not today's ability. Everybody has acknowledged we lack top end talent, but our strength lies in the quality depth. I agreed that we need an elite prospect or two, the way this season is going, we're going to get one in July. But not having that piece today doesn't mean we're a bottom 5 pool. Depth is how you unearth gems like Stone, Hoffman, and Dzingel.

We'll see how the pool turns out in a few years. Time will be the judge, but right or wrong, the logic you've used to get there is profoundly flawed. There's no getting around that. If AHL team's standings 5 games into a season was a great way to judge prospects, teams wouldn't need scouts.

 

[Micklebot]

Hope you are right
They are 27th in GF and 28th in GA
Offence help seems needed also

Their puck movers on the back end were supposed to be Ebert, Goloubef and one of Brannstrom or Wolanin.

Right now, Murray has the highest career high in pts from our back end at 26 pts, after him it's Jaros at 16 pts. The team needs one or two puck movers from the back end to work with the forwards.

 

[Daffy]

Why should we have way better prospects? We have had 1 top 4 pick and he’s on the team. We’ve also had a home run mid 1st also on the team. We had two rookies in the AHL last year have top notch seasons, can we really expect better?

I don’t think we have drafted anywhere close to high enough to be expecting better from our kids. They actually look pretty darn good for where we have been picking.

Next year should add another handful of good players, with at least one top guy. The next two seasons should be where we can add ‘great’ to our ‘good’. I hear you though, I covet some top picks as well!

I ment more from the trading of our stars.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I ment more from the trading of our stars.

Ah gotcha, makes more sense

 

[Micklebot]

I thought I'd revisit how our prospects are doing relative to expectations;

Starting with some notable skaters:

HF Sens Rank	Player	League	GP	G	A	Pts	Pts/g
1	Drake Batherson	AHL	15	6	11	17	1.13
-	Drake Batherson	NHL	2	0	0	0	0.00
2	Erik Brannstrom	NHL	19	0	2	2	0.11
3	Logan Brown	AHL	5	3	4	7	1.40
-	Logan Brown	NHL	6	0	3	3	0.50
4	Jacob Bernard-Docker	NCHC	11	1	8	9	0.82
5	Lassi Thomson	SM-liiga	14	3	3	6	0.43
6	Josh Norris	AHL	15	5	7	12	0.80
8	Alex Formenton	AHL	14	4	4	8	0.57
10	Rudolfs Balcers	AHL	2	3	0	3	1.50
11	Vitaly Abramov	AHL	13	5	5	10	0.77
-	Vitaly Abramov	NHL	2	1	0	1	0.50
13	Jonathan Davidsson	AHL	9	1	2	3	0.33
-	Jonathan Davidsson	NHL	2	0	1	1	0.50
14	Filip Chlapik	AHL	6	1	0	1	0.17
	Filip Chlapik	NHL	10	2	3	5	0.50
15	Shane Pinto	NCHC	11	2	4	6	0.55
16	Jonny Tychonick	NCHC	8	3	2	5	0.63
17	Angus Crookshank	H-East	10	5	2	7	0.70
19	Jonathan Gruden	OHL	18	7	15	22	1.22
20	Nick Paul	AHL	3	1	3	4	1.33
-	Nick Paul	NHL	15	2	6	8	0.53
22	Olle Alsing	SweHL	19	3	10	13	0.68

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

A couple observations, Batherson looked out of place in his 2 games with the big club, but has picked up where he left off in the AHL. On the flip side, a lot of prospects were having some struggles in the AHL but have looked really good with the big club, specifically, Paul, Chlapik, and Davidsson.

On the down side, the goalies haven't really impressed in Belleville,

L.Brown has looked really promising so far as a top 6 NHL option, and Formenton is having a solid first year pro. Norris has produced above my expectations in his first year pro as well. Brannstrom is showing he can play NHL hockey, but hasn't provided the offense that many expected.

Outside of NA, Alsing has come out of nowhere to become an intriguing prospect. Thomson has performed well, but is injured.

As for the guys who are still in junior leagues, Gruden has surprised me, JBD is putting up lots of pts, and Tychonick looks to be rebuilding his stock. Pinto is also producing pretty well for a 1st year college player.

Seems to me the depth is as advertised, but still no standout elite prospect.

 

[bert]

I thought I'd revisit how our prospects are doing relative to expectations;

Starting with some notable skaters:

HF Sens Rank	Player	League	GP	G	A	Pts	Pts/g
1	Drake Batherson	AHL	15	6	11	17	1.13
-	Drake Batherson	NHL	2	0	0	0	0.00
2	Erik Brannstrom	NHL	19	0	2	2	0.11
3	Logan Brown	AHL	5	3	4	7	1.40
-	Logan Brown	NHL	6	0	3	3	0.50
4	Jacob Bernard-Docker	NCHC	11	1	8	9	0.82
5	Lassi Thomson	SM-liiga	14	3	3	6	0.43
6	Josh Norris	AHL	15	5	7	12	0.80
8	Alex Formenton	AHL	14	4	4	8	0.57
10	Rudolfs Balcers	AHL	2	3	0	3	1.50
11	Vitaly Abramov	AHL	13	5	5	10	0.77
-	Vitaly Abramov	NHL	2	1	0	1	0.50
13	Jonathan Davidsson	AHL	9	1	2	3	0.33
-	Jonathan Davidsson	NHL	2	0	1	1	0.50
14	Filip Chlapik	AHL	6	1	0	1	0.17
	Filip Chlapik	NHL	10	2	3	5	0.50
15	Shane Pinto	NCHC	11	2	4	6	0.55
16	Jonny Tychonick	NCHC	8	3	2	5	0.63
17	Angus Crookshank	H-East	10	5	2	7	0.70
19	Jonathan Gruden	OHL	18	7	15	22	1.22
20	Nick Paul	AHL	3	1	3	4	1.33
-	Nick Paul	NHL	15	2	6	8	0.53
22	Olle Alsing	SweHL	19	3	10	13	0.68

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

A couple observations, Batherson looked out of place in his 2 games with the big club, but has picked up where he left off in the AHL. On the flip side, a lot of prospects were having some struggles in the AHL but have looked really good with the big club, specifically, Paul, Chlapik, and Davidsson.

On the down side, the goalies haven't really impressed in Belleville,

L.Brown has looked really promising so far as a top 6 NHL option, and Formenton is having a solid first year pro. Norris has produced above my expectations in his first year pro as well. Brannstrom is showing he can play NHL hockey, but hasn't provided the offense that many expected.

Outside of NA, Alsing has come out of nowhere to become an intriguing prospect. Thomson has performed well, but is injured.

As for the guys who are still in junior leagues, Gruden has surprised me, JBD is putting up lots of pts, and Tychonick looks to be rebuilding his stock. Pinto is also producing pretty well for a 1st year college player.

Seems to me the depth is as advertised, but still no standout elite prospect.

Man that Pinto pick looks so horrible with the way so many guys in the 2nd round are producing. Jamieson Rees is such a stud, plays such a physical fast skilled game. Looked incredible at the U 18's.

The sens essentially traded Honka and Rees for Soogard. He better turn out good grief.

Imagine having Kaliyev, Rees and Honka vs Pinto and Soogard.

 

[Micklebot]

Man that Pinto pick looks so horrible with the way so many guys in the 2nd round are producing. Jamieson Rees is such a stud, plays such a physical fast skilled game. Looked incredible at the U 18's.

The sens essentially traded Honka and Rees for Soogard. He better turn out good grief.

Imagine having Kaliyev, Rees and Honka vs Pinto and Soogard.

I don't mind Pinto when viewed solely as a prospect in our system, but when I see almost all the guys I really wanted with that pick killing it, it's tough not to think about that. At this point, it's done and over with so I'm just going to ignore the could have hads...


.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Man that Pinto pick looks so horrible with the way so many guys in the 2nd round are producing. Jamieson Rees is such a stud, plays such a physical fast skilled game. Looked incredible at the U 18's.

The sens essentially traded Honka and Rees for Soogard. He better turn out good grief.

Imagine having Kaliyev, Rees and Honka vs Pinto and Soogard.

At 83 there were other decent D options vs Honka as well. At 94 I dare say we could have taken that pick more seriously as well. There are a couple decent D prospects there as well. No doubt that draft was a head scratcher for me .

 

[Micklebot]

Both Belleville Sens and the big club have been playing better of late, and in no small part due to the performance of some of the young players.

L. Brown has looked solid in a top 6 role since his callup. I'd like to see Chlapik get more icetime, because he's not looked out of place in the limited time he does get.

Down in Belleville, Norris, Formenton, Abramov, and Balcers have all really stepped up their games to give the team scoring beyond Batherson. The team has climbed out of the basement and is only 2 pts back from Laval and Utica for 3rd in the division with 2 games in hand on Laval.

Now if we can just get the goalie prospects to realize their potential.

 

[coladin]

Both Belleville Sens and the big club have been playing better of late, and in no small part due to the performance of some of the young players.

L. Brown has looked solid in a top 6 role since his callup. I'd like to see Chlapik get more icetime, because he's not looked out of place in the limited time he does get.

Down in Belleville, Norris, Formenton, Abramov, and Balcers have all really stepped up their games to give the team scoring beyond Batherson. The team has climbed out of the basement and is only 2 pts back from Laval and Utica for 3rd in the division with 2 games in hand on Laval.

Now if we can just get the goalie prospects to realize their potential.

Yeah, it is just taking time for the players to develop. They certainly are, and that is something that will require the patience of the fans , to do this right. Stay the course and hope for a bonkers draft in June. The only way this team does not turn into a lottery pick will be due to the progression of Brown, Duclair, Chabot, Chucky, etc...and I can live with dropping a few spots for that

 

[Micklebot]

Figured this needed a bit of a bump, Belleville is now firmly in a playoff spot leading the North division. Goaltending seems to have bounced back with Daccord and Gustavsson minding the net while Hogberg has been called up and is looking good.

Pinto has not only kept up his strong start, but put it into overdrive, and Formenton has rachetted up the production to make sure Norris isn't lonely leading rookie scoring in the AHL.

HF Sens Rank	Player	League	GP	G	A	Pts	Pts/g
1	Drake Batherson	AHL	35	13	30	43	1.23
-	Drake Batherson	NHL	9	1	1	2	0.22
2	Erik Brannstrom	NHL	31	0	4	4	0.13
	Erik Brannstrom	AHL	14	1	11	12	0.86
3	Logan Brown	AHL	17	4	18	22	1.29
-	Logan Brown	NHL	23	1	7	8	0.35
4	Jacob Bernard-Docker	NCHC	20	3	13	16	0.8
5	Lassi Thomson	SM-liiga	25	6	4	10	0.40
6	Josh Norris	AHL	42	22	18	40	0.95
8	Alex Formenton	AHL	41	21	12	33	0.8
10	Rudolfs Balcers	AHL	21	9	17	26	1.24
	Rudolfs Balcers	NHL	7	0	1	1	.14
11	Vitaly Abramov	AHL	31	15	19	28	0.90
-	Vitaly Abramov	NHL	2	1	0	1	0.50
13	Jonathan Davidsson	AHL	18	2	3	4	0.22
-	Jonathan Davidsson	NHL	6	0	1	1	0.17
14	Filip Chlapik	AHL	22	4	8	12	0.55
	Filip Chlapik	NHL	23	2	3	5	0.21
15	Shane Pinto	NCHC	21	11	7	18	.86
16	Jonny Tychonick	NCHC	17	3	6	9	0.53
17	Angus Crookshank	H-East	22	12	4	16	0.73
19	Jonathan Gruden	OHL	41	17	27	44	1.07
20	Nick Paul	AHL	3	1	3	4	1.33
-	Nick Paul	NHL	38	6	7	13	0.34
22	Olle Alsing	SweHL	34	4	16	20	0.59

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Dingle]

Figured this needed a bit of a bump, Belleville is now firmly in a playoff spot leading the North division. Goaltending seems to have bounced back with Daccord and Gustavsson minding the net while Hogberg has been called up and is looking good.

Pinto has not only kept up his strong start, but put it into overdrive, and Formenton has rachetted up the production to make sure Norris isn't lonely leading rookie scoring in the AHL.

HF Sens Rank	Player	League	GP	G	A	Pts	Pts/g
1	Drake Batherson	AHL	35	13	30	43	1.23
-	Drake Batherson	NHL	9	1	1	2	0.22
2	Erik Brannstrom	NHL	31	0	4	4	0.13
	Erik Brannstrom	AHL	14	1	11	12	0.86
3	Logan Brown	AHL	17	4	18	22	1.29
-	Logan Brown	NHL	23	1	7	8	0.35
4	Jacob Bernard-Docker	NCHC	20	3	13	16	0.8
5	Lassi Thomson	SM-liiga	25	6	4	10	0.40
6	Josh Norris	AHL	42	22	18	40	0.95
8	Alex Formenton	AHL	41	21	12	33	0.8
10	Rudolfs Balcers	AHL	21	9	17	26	1.24
	Rudolfs Balcers	NHL	7	0	1	1	.14
11	Vitaly Abramov	AHL	31	15	19	28	0.90
-	Vitaly Abramov	NHL	2	1	0	1	0.50
13	Jonathan Davidsson	AHL	18	2	3	4	0.22
-	Jonathan Davidsson	NHL	6	0	1	1	0.17
14	Filip Chlapik	AHL	22	4	8	12	0.55
	Filip Chlapik	NHL	23	2	3	5	0.21
15	Shane Pinto	NCHC	21	11	18	25	1.19
16	Jonny Tychonick	NCHC	17	3	6	9	0.53
17	Angus Crookshank	H-East	22	12	4	16	0.73
19	Jonathan Gruden	OHL	41	17	27	44	1.07
20	Nick Paul	AHL	3	1	3	4	1.33
-	Nick Paul	NHL	38	6	7	13	0.34
22	Olle Alsing	SweHL	34	4	16	20	0.59

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

be careful of your charts Mick..Most of the guys have only produced at ~ 1/5 of their levels in the NHL versus AHL. And those whose productivity is about the same, are doing poorly in the AHL.

The college kids..well, there are plenty of Hobey Baker Winners that were busts.

The one true positive, the team is playing exceptionally well. And yes, a young AHL team that is successful can produce good prospects. Let's wait..