Ovechkin not in the top 50 in goalscoring

Aliceanna

Tom Wilson - Stanley Cup Champion
Jun 12, 2011
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ATL
There will come a day that Alexander Ovechkin is not a threat to the top goal scorers in the league, but I submit that it is not this day.

These boards are famous for not understanding that he has ups and downs or when those ups and downs come. He generally starts fairly slow (for him). Especially in a shortened season. Often with a new coach (this is his 7th or 8th--even I can't keep them all straight--new coach in his 15-year career). Then, he starts becoming more consistent, right around the halfway mark of the season--regardless of when that halfway mark comes. Until he explodes all over everything and everyone for a while, before calming down a bit, sometimes then having a late-season mini-explosion, especially when a particular milestone is in sight (be it a season or career marker).

This is a short season, starting in mid-January, so it's weird and out of rhythm and how can we know how he'll do? Well, we do have a previous season to judge him against. One that also started in mid-January. Granted, he was 8 years younger, but he also had 6 fewer Rocket Richard trophies then (not counting the one he earned that season. He had earned 2 total before that season).

The last time Ovi played in a season that started in mid-January, he had an abysmal start. He wasn't scoring, he looked slow and out of sorts. Some people blamed the "new" coach, but he'd played under that coach the entire prior season. He didn't score his first goal until the 5th game. He only had 5 goals by his 13th game. After 20 games, he only had 8 goals and these boards were melting down about him. At 25GP of that season, the same point where he is now, Alexander Ovechkin had 9 goals.

There were 23 games left in that season. Ovechkin ended the season with 32 goals. The first 25 games, he scored at a .36 GPG rate. The remaining 23 games, he scored at a 1.43 GPG rate.

I do not believe he will do that this year. Obviously. That's freaking insane! But over the whole season? That's a GPG rate of .67 a good bit, but still only a bit, above his career GPG rate of .61.

This season, which started in mid-January, in which Ovi had an entirely new coach and new system, he had 2 goals in his first 5 games. He had scored 6 in his first 13. After 20 games, he only had 8 goals and these boards were melting down about him. At 25GP of this season, Alexander Ovechkin has 12 goals.

He probably won't score at a 1.43 GPG for the remaining 27 games the Caps have to play this season. But he doesn't have to. If he scores at his career average .61 rate for the rest of the season, he'd get 28 for the season, and would surpass Marcel Dionne (731) for 4th on the All-Time list with 734.

However, Ovi loves a milestone, and he's never had a season where he didn't score 30 goals. I can't imagine he'd want to let Covid make this the first one. He'd have to score at a total .67 GPG rate for his remaining 27 games to hit 30. Maybe that's tough, considering his slow start, and 8 years ago, he had to score at such a ridiculously high rate to achieve a final overall .67. But this season, he only has to have an overall season GPG rate of .58 to get there.

It's certainly easy to imagine, if you're used to watching him play.
 

Zuluss

Registered User
May 19, 2011
2,450
2,091
After half the season Toffoli has 40% more goals. During the three previous seasons Ovechkin scored more goals than Toffoli scored points.

That's unexpected...

Stranger things have happened 20-30 games into a season.
I remember just last year OV and James Neal had about the same amount of goals after 25 games - and I even recall someone on the History board telling me "look, many players can score a ton of goals if you keep feeding them the puck on PP, there's not so much difference between today's OV and James Neal" :laugh:
 

Confused Turnip

Registered User
Nov 29, 2019
1,587
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Slava Malamud is an absolute pos that used to work for a big Russian newspaper and once he was fired and denied the Caps accreditation, he started hating Ovechkin and all things Russian. Pretty pathetic.
Just to be clear Slava isn't Russian. His entire gimmick is chasing Russian star athletes from sport to sport and shitting on them while vaguely claiming to be from somewhere Russia-y. He's actually Moldovan from a place called Transnistria, and if you read about the history of the place -- especially noting when Slava was born and when his family came to Baltimore -- you'll see where Slava's russophobia stems from. It's not just hockey either, he does this in a few other sports I follow too, his opinion means nothing because it's always the same opinion "Russian thing is bad, now let me talk long enough until you think I gave you a reason why".

The guy is a sad case.
 

SpinningEdge

Registered User
Feb 12, 2015
7,719
3,492
Fairfax, VA
People need to quit questioning the goat with goal scoring.

do people not realize he’s missed games bc of the dumb Covid thing - had one of toughest scheduled in nhl - and he’s streaky at times. Guy is capable of putting in 7-8 goals in 3 games.

The whole league is dumb with comparing stats. It’s literally 4 different leagues right now since teams aren’t even playing 3/4 of each other. Draissaitl and McDavid have 33 points in 6 games vs Ottawa for example.
 

txpd

Registered User
Jan 25, 2003
69,649
14,131
New Bern, NC
Historically Ovechkin goes on a 20 goals in 20 games run. This run often starts up after 20 or so games. My read on that is that when the players in the league get worn down by the typical wear and tear of 20 games Ovechkin doesnt wear at the same rate and his advantage expands. If this is the case and his run has started it will look like seasons past.
 

kp61c

Registered User
Apr 3, 2012
3,766
1,156
separate civilization
Just to be clear Slava isn't Russian. His entire gimmick is chasing Russian star athletes from sport to sport and shitting on them while vaguely claiming to be from somewhere Russia-y. He's actually Moldovan from a place called Transnistria, and if you read about the history of the place -- especially noting when Slava was born and when his family came to Baltimore -- you'll see where Slava's russophobia stems from. It's not just hockey either, he does this in a few other sports I follow too, his opinion means nothing because it's always the same opinion "Russian thing is bad, now let me talk long enough until you think I gave you a reason why".
The guy is a sad case.
Don't follow him but does he badmouth Putin and his regime or Russia? If it is the former I would not call him a russophobe then.
 

kicksavedave

I'm just here for the memes and gifs.
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Apr 29, 2009
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Fallbrook, CA
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Well, that didn’t take long. 7 goals in last 7 games and at least a goal in 5 straight.

I was surprised to see a few of his faithful flock cast doubt this time around.

The ones casting doubt are not his faithful flock. They're hangers on.

I stopped doubting Ovi a while ago, maybe the 5th or 6th Rocket?
 
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MadLuke

Registered User
Jan 18, 2011
9,581
5,206
Why do we do this every year?

Goalscoring is by nature a bit more noisy than point (has the numbers by season are lower) and a bad stretch of game at the beginning of a season is always weighted more than from game 47 to 59, so it is a bit normal, to not give Ovechkin the benefit of the doubt, that I am not sure, it would be like betting this is the year Lebron do not reach the finals year after year.
 

HabsWhiteKnightLOL

Registered User
Apr 29, 2017
34,191
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Somewhere on earth in a hospital
only hfboard to make a thread about how Ovy is doing. It's not like he's the best goalscorer that ever played.
He had a bad start , it happens + the covid thing that happened. weird season for Washington but looks like they are back at the top and fully in control now.
 

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