There will come a day that Alexander Ovechkin is not a threat to the top goal scorers in the league, but I submit that it is not this day.
These boards are famous for not understanding that he has ups and downs or when those ups and downs come. He generally starts fairly slow (for him). Especially in a shortened season. Often with a new coach (this is his 7th or 8th--even I can't keep them all straight--new coach in his 15-year career). Then, he starts becoming more consistent, right around the halfway mark of the season--regardless of when that halfway mark comes. Until he explodes all over everything and everyone for a while, before calming down a bit, sometimes then having a late-season mini-explosion, especially when a particular milestone is in sight (be it a season or career marker).
This is a short season, starting in mid-January, so it's weird and out of rhythm and how can we know how he'll do? Well, we do have a previous season to judge him against. One that also started in mid-January. Granted, he was 8 years younger, but he also had 6 fewer Rocket Richard trophies then (not counting the one he earned that season. He had earned 2 total before that season).
The last time Ovi played in a season that started in mid-January, he had an abysmal start. He wasn't scoring, he looked slow and out of sorts. Some people blamed the "new" coach, but he'd played under that coach the entire prior season. He didn't score his first goal until the 5th game. He only had 5 goals by his 13th game. After 20 games, he only had 8 goals and these boards were melting down about him. At 25GP of that season, the same point where he is now, Alexander Ovechkin had 9 goals.
There were 23 games left in that season. Ovechkin ended the season with 32 goals. The first 25 games, he scored at a .36 GPG rate. The remaining 23 games, he scored at a 1.43 GPG rate.
I do not believe he will do that this year. Obviously. That's freaking insane! But over the whole season? That's a GPG rate of .67 a good bit, but still only a bit, above his career GPG rate of .61.
This season, which started in mid-January, in which Ovi had an entirely new coach and new system, he had 2 goals in his first 5 games. He had scored 6 in his first 13. After 20 games, he only had 8 goals and these boards were melting down about him. At 25GP of this season, Alexander Ovechkin has 12 goals.
He probably won't score at a 1.43 GPG for the remaining 27 games the Caps have to play this season. But he doesn't have to. If he scores at his career average .61 rate for the rest of the season, he'd get 28 for the season, and would surpass Marcel Dionne (731) for 4th on the All-Time list with 734.
However, Ovi loves a milestone, and he's never had a season where he didn't score 30 goals. I can't imagine he'd want to let Covid make this the first one. He'd have to score at a total .67 GPG rate for his remaining 27 games to hit 30. Maybe that's tough, considering his slow start, and 8 years ago, he had to score at such a ridiculously high rate to achieve a final overall .67. But this season, he only has to have an overall season GPG rate of .58 to get there.
It's certainly easy to imagine, if you're used to watching him play.