Out of Town Thread Part 7

[LaP]

Lets face it... Bergevin sucked really, really, really bad in 2016 and 2017. I think some people will never forgive him for those years. Personally, I think he is a much better GM today.

Anyways... The Drouin for Sergachev trade was risky and we are loosing that one. You know me though... I still think Drouin has more to give but I always said, he needs better pieces around him. Well, no more excuses, he will have very good pieces to work with and the Habs have a strong top 9F wherever he plays. If he stays healthy, I see some bump in production. How much better will Sergachev get? Guess work

Those people are dumb. I'll happily forgive him if he proves me he got it. He had a good summer. But the job's not done yet. And i'll remain skeptical for now. One summer doesn't make a career. The success of this team still rely on most of our top prospects reaching their ceiling. At least now the depth to help them is better. But assuming all those kids will reach their ceiling is a little bit naive. Some of them will fail and this is where we will see if MB is a better GM. He was always good about getting depth. That's the other part he's struggling with. If it becomes clear some of our kids can't handle the role they have to handle to win will he be able to pull the trigger and go get a top vet for future? Last time he could not do it.

I always liked Toffoli. I'm intrigued by Anderson even if i'm not as high on him as some others. Edmundson is solid depth. Always hated Allen but as a number 2 whatever. But all those guys are not game breaking guys. This team will compete and will certainly be a lot more fun to watch (can't wait for Weal to FO) but it will still rely on kids providing the top end offensive talents. Unlike many others here i don't believe in offense by comity and i think many people grossly underrated the top offensive players of some past stanley cup winners.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Those people are dumb. I'll happily forgive him if he proves me he got it. He had a good summer. But the job's not done yet. And i'll remain skeptical for now. One summer doesn't make a career. The success of this team still rely on most of our top prospects reaching their ceiling. At least now the depth to help them is better. But assuming all those kids will reach their ceiling is a little bit naive. Some of them will fail and this is where we will see if MB is a better GM. He was always good about getting depth. That's the other part he's struggling with. If it becomes clear some of our kids can't handle the role they have to handle to win will he be able to pull the trigger and go get a top vet for future? Last time he could not do it.

I always liked Toffoli. I'm intrigued by Anderson even if i'm not as high on him as some others. Edmundson is solid depth. Always hated Allen but as a number 2 whatever. But all those guys are not game breaking guys. This team will compete and will certainly be a lot more fun to watch (can't wait for Weal to FO) but it will still rely on kids providing the top end offensive talents. Unlike many others here i don't believe in offense by comity and i think many people grossly underrated the top offensive players of some past stanley cup winners.

It's been 9 years in the making and we expected this in year 5 right? Would this be the issue some have on Bergevin?

I just like how we improved our centers, have better draft power and trends in our prospect pool and we have finally made some moves to make our team better on paper now. Added goal scoring and size on wing was a big issue. Adding Allen as a back-up and pieces like Edmundson and Romanov on D will push people down.

Guys like Kulak, Lehkonen, Byron, and even Weal are pushed down or out. I hope there is a season... we must see how this roster on paper plays out

 

[Doc McKenna]

I didnt like the comment from ME Vlasic about his owner. He said. He doesnt understand why it is difficult to be payed, when the valués owner is around 12 billions of dollars.... i mean. Everybody are in a world pandemia, many company has to shutdown. Its not because your owner made a lot of money, that he should buy a house for you. They took a lot of money risk before to be owner of the team... if bergevin and julien lost 20% of theirs salary. I don’t thinks its because molson were winning a lot of money... Yesterday i heard eric belanger talking about the 2 last lock out. He said, he lost his first millions at the first lock out and a good amount of money the second lock out. Today, nobody gave it the money he did lost. Like he said. You are a number for the owner, if you don’t want to play, another one will do it. So he is mad, cause he will never touch this money he lost because of the 2 last lock out..

No, no they didn't . Every NHL owner has a team because its a vanity project. If you want to risk it, throw it in a hedge fund built on a bad product sold as a bullshit AAA product then repackaged 3 times till it isn't a known quantity and ends up in your company "safe" pension plan.

These clowns know that 95% of the time sports franchise is pretty damn safe. Not working out, move the team. Or sell it off. It will still bleed less money than a lot of other business ventures. They signed these contracts because no one anticipated even a lockout. It was a safe bet, otherwise they wouldn't do it. So if you believe in a free market then the owner has to fulfill his end of the bargain. But like most things the workers get a big middle finger.

Sorry but I have little pity for any medium or larger company. If you got to 100 employees plus(NHL team are a function of everyone involved and are not in direct competition with other teams or even leagues, just other sports) then as the owner you probably lived a pretty decent life, and so did you offspring. If you didn't sock any money away for a rainy day thats on you. Its not often a company will go to bat for you if you find yourself short on your mortgage for the month. "You did it to yourself" is the usual model.

 

[Doc McKenna]

It's been 9 years in the making and we expected this in year 5 right? Would this be the issue some have on Bergevin?

I just like how we improved our centers, have better draft power and trends in our prospect pool and we have finally made some moves to make our team better on paper now. Added goal scoring and size on wing was a big issue. Adding Allen as a back-up and pieces like Edmundson and Romanov on D will push people down.

Guys like Kulak, Lehkonen, Byron, and even Weal are pushed down or out. I hope there is a season... we must see how this roster on paper plays out

Thats great, but that makes us a bubble team after 9 years..we were a competitive team prior to that. Maybe not contenders but we rarely missed the playoffs instead of rarely making them.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Thats great, but that makes us a bubble team after 9 years..we were a competitive team prior to that. Maybe not contenders but we rarely missed the playoffs instead of rarely making them.

We will see how the momentum from last playoffs and moves we made in the offseason translate to where we finish in the standings. How things have changed since March eh?

 

[Runner77]

I always liked Toffoli. I'm intrigued by Anderson even if i'm not as high on him as some others. Edmundson is solid depth. Always hated Allen but as a number 2 whatever. But all those guys are not game breaking guys. This team will compete and will certainly be a lot more fun to watch (can't wait for Weal to FO) but it will still rely on kids providing the top end offensive talents. Unlike many others here i don't believe in offense by comity and i think many people grossly underrated the top offensive players of some past stanley cup winners.

Where's the extra scoring coming from? Assuming Toffoli's production is cancelled out by Domi leaving, the only added anticipated goal scoring production is expected from Anderson. Wish we'd have added another offensive weapon.

This would have been a good time to do it, with so many teams struggling with the cap. I'm not sure Allen and Edmundson was a good use of the cap given the current very particular climate, but what's done is done. Let's see who Bergevin might be able to unload to make more cap room.

 

[Hins77]

No, no they didn't . Every NHL owner has a team because its a vanity project. If you want to risk it, throw it in a hedge fund built on a bad product sold as a bullshit AAA product then repackaged 3 times till it isn't a known quantity and ends up in your company "safe" pension plan.

These clowns know that 95% of the time sports franchise is pretty damn safe. Not working out, move the team. Or sell it off. It will still bleed less money than a lot of other business ventures. They signed these contracts because no one anticipated even a lockout. It was a safe bet, otherwise they wouldn't do it. So if you believe in a free market then the owner has to fulfill his end of the bargain. But like most things the workers get a big middle finger.

Sorry but I have little pity for any medium or larger company. If you got to 100 employees plus(NHL team are a function of everyone involved and are not in direct competition with other teams or even leagues, just other sports) then as the owner you probably lived a pretty decent life, and so did you offspring. If you didn't sock any money away for a rainy day thats on you. Its not often a company will go to bat for you if you find yourself short on your mortgage for the month. "You did it to yourself" is the usual model.

I have maybe didnt wrote it well, what im saying is, owner are buisneesmman, so early in their carreer, they took money risk with their company. After that, they acquired sports team. You have to be billionnaire before to have a nhl team. So what im saying is. Owner lost money cause of pandemia, if the player won’t play, they will loose money. So at the end of the day both parties will lost money. I dont think this is a good idea to cancel the season cause player and also owner will lose money. Players look like they want to renegociate the cba. Nothing is normal right now. I understand why they are piss. But its not saying, « our owner is billionaire », i dont understand why he cant pay us, is the thing to say.

 

[Scintillating10]

The only good thing I like about Tampa is they keep Boston from winning a Cup.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Numbers I'm trying to dig up to understand the context at play behind the scenes

1) On July 6th, the NHL and NHLPA agreed to escrow % as follows
- 20/21: 20%
- 21/22: 14-18 % (TBD)
- 22/23: 10%
- 23/24: 6%
- 24/25: 6%
- 25/26: 6%

2) On July 7th, NHL signing bonuses were paid and we have to assume 20% was held back.

3) $81.5M salary cap is based on $5.09B of revenue. I have actual salaries tracking to be around $2.33B (+/-). Bettman said about 50% of revenue comes from tickets. So that's about $2.55B of lost revenue and what market is left is the same... $2.55B. Lets say some fans are in the seats and the market is $3B (+/-)?

4) The latest developments is the NHL is asking for an additional 16% of escrow. That's a total of 36%.

If you take 36% off the actual actual salaries (around $2.33B) and then multiple that by 2 (50/50 revenue split), you end up with... $2.98B.... which is the estimated market with limited fans in the seats (see point 3 above).

Sounds to me that the NHL wants a flat cap for only 1 year and they want to get back to normal business in 21/22.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Blue Jays thinking about tearing down the SkyDome and building a new one.

 

[Electricity]

Who will be on LITR? I must have missed something.

I'm pretty sure it's still Callahan.

 

[PaulD]

Those people are dumb. I'll happily forgive him if he proves me he got it. He had a good summer. But the job's not done yet. And i'll remain skeptical for now. One summer doesn't make a career. The success of this team still rely on most of our top prospects reaching their ceiling. At least now the depth to help them is better. But assuming all those kids will reach their ceiling is a little bit naive. Some of them will fail and this is where we will see if MB is a better GM. He was always good about getting depth. That's the other part he's struggling with. If it becomes clear some of our kids can't handle the role they have to handle to win will he be able to pull the trigger and go get a top vet for future? Last time he could not do it.

I always liked Toffoli. I'm intrigued by Anderson even if i'm not as high on him as some others. Edmundson is solid depth. Always hated Allen but as a number 2 whatever. But all those guys are not game breaking guys. This team will compete and will certainly be a lot more fun to watch (can't wait for Weal to FO) but it will still rely on kids providing the top end offensive talents. Unlike many others here i don't believe in offense by comity and i think many people grossly underrated the top offensive players of some past stanley cup winners.

Like Larry?..... scoring the Stanley Ciup winning goal for the Caps.

 

[PaulD]

Thats great, but that makes us a bubble team after 9 years..we were a competitive team prior to that. Maybe not contenders but we rarely missed the playoffs instead of rarely making them.

Bergevins legacy right there...........lowering the bar in Montreal.

 

[PaulD]

That was just marketing BS. A catch phrase.

Never forget that Bergevin two jobs. His official job is GM of the Habs. But he's also a PR specialist, a politician in a way. And I don't mean anything against him with that. It's just the way it is.

For sure. He and Molson are hockey politicians.

Shanahan and Dubas same.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

Blue Jays thinking about tearing down the SkyDome and building a new one.

The Skydome (it has a corporate name now, but it'll always be the Skydome to me, BTW) isn't actually THAT old, it opened in the late eighties if memory serves. Rogers is rolling in money though, so they can probably finance a new one without too much difficulty.

 

[LeHab]

WR starting as QB for Broncos?

 

[Habs Halifax]

The Skydome (it has a corporate name now, but it'll always be the Skydome to me, BTW) isn't actually THAT old, it opened in the late eighties if memory serves. Rogers is rolling in money though, so they can probably finance a new one without too much difficulty.

1989 is when it was built. First retractable roof that worked I believe. I've been there a few times recently and I feel the Skydome is fine but I think they want to have real grass and to match the modern looking ones recently built in NA. Would they have another retractable roof? Not sure but they might have to. I think they are looking at all options... Renovate, Tear down and build new, or build a new one at a different location. I read that with the plans to tear down and built new, they won't need the entire site and probably thinking of developing the other part of the site as condos where they can make alternative revenue.

 

[PaulD]

The Skydome (it has a corporate name now, but it'll always be the Skydome to me, BTW) isn't actually THAT old, it opened in the late eighties if memory serves. Rogers is rolling in money though, so they can probably finance a new one without too much difficulty.

They should spend money on players instead of a building.

Yea, I saw the Stones there in September 89, when it was a "brand new stadium"

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'm pretty sure it's still Callahan.

Callahan's contract ended last season.

 

[DAChampion]

I wonder where thus forum will go if there's no season.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

I wonder where thus forum will go if there's no season.

It survived the 2005 lockout.

 

[DAChampion]

It survived the 2005 lockout.

It's obviously not what I meant. I'm sure that the actual domain name will still be registered.

But there could be a huge attrition of many very good posters. This place might also be a ghost town for a year, it already is halfway there.

 

[Adam Michaels]

 

[Runner77]

Are ads on jerseys being seriously considered now? Not sure if it's just Elliotte Friedman spitballing or if the NHL is now leaning that way.

 

[Habs Halifax]

After chit chatting with several other fans and trying to nail down the numbers at play between the NHLPA and NHL... this is what I came to. Guess work involved but they fall in line with what they agreed to back in July. One thing that could be a problem is item 4 below. Enjoy! It's on the main boards too but decided to post here in case some Habs fans don't visit the main boards and are interested in some numbers at play.

1) See below. It appears to be the agreed escrow numbers from July work. I have them getting back to the 50/50 split after the 22/23 season.

2) Some guess work.
* I have the HRR getting back to $5.09B in 21/22 and then inflation applied to future seasons
* I have a substantial bump in revenue from Seattle and new US TV deal helping the HRR in 22/23.
* I guess that the revenue market for 20/21 is $2B. That to me is the hardest thing to estimate

3) After looking at this more in depth, Maybe the owners are not liking that whopping $2.228B of overpayment after the 20/21 season. That's like banks giving out money with 0% interest and getting the exact amount payed back 2 years later. So if this is the actual numbers at play (or something close to it), I think I change my mind and side with the players.... a deal is a deal. It's still fluid though and the numbers I showed below could take longer for the NHLPA to pay back if the HRR does not get back to $5.09B. It's very possible Bettman wants a more conservative approch. There is no right or wrong here in the 50/50 share. It's about how conservative they want to be and how much money the owners are OK with overpaying in the short span. However, They did just get $500M from Vegas and $700M to come from Seattle that is not part of HRR! That's $1.2B the players didn't get anything from.

4) The other thing to think about is the massive jump the salary cap will get after the 22/23 season. This might be what Bettman is talking about. Imagine the cap going from $81.5M to over $90M in one season cause they held it down for too long while the players were paying the NHL owners back. They might have to raise the cap after the 21/22 season to accommodate that. Otherwise, they would have to spend wisely but imagine your team having a star become UFA at that exact time? Like Matthews for example? Leafs finally get the cap to rise and then Matthews takes it all. Maybe this is what Bettman was talking about in terms of stressing the system