#OReillyWatch - Summer of 2014 - Part II

[Avs_19]

Am I the only one who thinks that Varly didn't take any discount though? 5.9M for 5 years and he signed in the middle of the season.

He literally had one half of a good season in the NHL behind him when he re-signed and he's making Ryan Miller's money so I don't think that he had to "buy into the ideas", it was a damn good contract for him.

I remember quite a few people saying Landeskog got too much too soon as well. Varly's deal was market value when he signed it, no discount or "buying in".

 

[Freudian]

O'Reilly, even at $6.75M/year over 6-7 years has higher trade value than O'Reilly at $6M/year for 2 years.

So why would Avs ever let it go to arbitration?

 

[Foppa2118]

O'Reilly, even at $6.75M/year over 6-7 years has higher trade value than O'Reilly at $6M/year for 2 years.

So why would Avs ever let it go to arbitration?

Because they couldn't find a deal that made sense before hand, and because they hoped O'Reilly/Newport would cave at the last second.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Am I the only one who thinks that Varly didn't take any discount though? 5.9M for 5 years and he signed in the middle of the season.

He literally had one half of a good season in the NHL behind him when he re-signed and he's making Ryan Miller's money so I don't think that he had to "buy into the ideas", it was a damn good contract for him.

Vezina and Hart finalist, clear MVP of the team? The Avs were SMART signing him when they did. Can you imagine him holding that over their heads negotiating now? Plus whatever KHL BS he could have pulled. It could easily have been a fiasco. Yes he had to buy in, just like anyone else signing long term. O'Reilly is a top 5 player on this team for me but Varly is much more important. It's funny to me the perception of oh he was only good one year but yet O'Reilly only really put up big points one year too yet Varly got paid too much.

 

[AslanRH]

It's much better to re-sign O'Reilly, even at a higher salary than you really are comfortable with, than trade him for big downgrades in Wheeler and Simmonds.

You're not going to find the best return for O'Reilly by checking the stats from last year and picking guys having career years. This years Simmonds, Okposo, Voracek and Wheeler are the Hartnell, Lupul and Eberle two years ago.

Trouba is a name that would be an appropriate return for O'Reilly. Lindholm if Avs really like him. Possibly Josi and possibly Jones. Alzner is another name.

Trading O'Reilly out of principle for a worse return than that basically means Avs have determined that paying players less than Duchene is more important than winning and then it really doesn't matter what you do. When you're not having a winners mentality you can tinker all you want. You're not going to win.

First Bold:
Couldn't O'Reilly be seen in the same way you are asking us to look at Wheeler, Okposo, Voracek, and Simmonds?

I get that everyone thinks it is up and up for ROR, but I would bet many GMs think his performance was just as much a product of Duchene as they do Voracek of Giroux or Okposo of Tavares.

Second Bold:
Maybe they do not see ROR as the tipping point between winning and losing on this club. While they may speak to how much they want to keep him, they may not want to keep him at any cost which most teams will only do for their franchise players. I highly doubt any current GM in the NHL sees ROR as a franchise player.

 

[FoppaForsberg*]

Couple of deals I would do/consider on teams that are in need of a 2nd line center/ top winger

Gormley + Hanzal/Vermette
TJ Brodie +
Hjalmarsson
Ryan Murray
Brodin
Josi
Hamonic +
A signed Marc Staal
Maatta + Sutter
Reily +
Trouba

 

[tigervixxxen]

I remember quite a few people saying Landeskog got too much too soon as well. Varly's deal was market value when he signed it, no discount or "buying in".

No he didn't take a discount but he left money on the table by signing early and not bleeding the Avs for every penny.

 

[DanishAvsfan]

It's much better to re-sign O'Reilly, even at a higher salary than you really are comfortable with, than trade him for big downgrades in Wheeler and Simmonds.

You're not going to find the best return for O'Reilly by checking the stats from last year and picking guys having career years. This years Simmonds, Okposo, Voracek and Wheeler are the Hartnell, Lupul and Eberle two years ago.

Trouba is a name that would be an appropriate return for O'Reilly. Lindholm if Avs really like him. Possibly Josi and possibly Jones. Alzner is another name.

Trading O'Reilly out of principle for a worse return than that basically means Avs have determined that paying players less than Duchene is more important than winning and then it really doesn't matter what you do. When you're not having a winners mentality you can tinker all you want. You're not going to win.

I agree with everything you say.

If they really think that Duchene's salary must be the highest on the team out of principle the team is in deep trouble. If they are really only going to sign people who share their understanding of the notion of "commitment" to the team, the team is in deep trouble too. You cannot expect people to to show their commitment by taking a pay-cut. It is simply a naïve business model. It may have worked with Duchene, but it will not work with many other athletes. It is not as if the Avs can lay claim to be a charity organization, which people will work for for less money because it serves a higher purpose. Sign RoR to a reasonable long term deal. If it happens to be on par with Duchene's then so be it. If they go to arbitration and get a 1 or 2 year contract with RoR at 5,5 they will have shot themselves in the foot, because it will more or less force them to trade him below his value. If the sign him long term they are in a much better position.

 

[tigervixxxen]

O'Reilly, even at $6.75M/year over 6-7 years has higher trade value than O'Reilly at $6M/year for 2 years.

So why would Avs ever let it go to arbitration?

Because the Avs are not going to sign someone long term just to trade them. And as desirable around the league O'Reilly is it's not as easy as it sounds to unload an albatross contract.

 

[Freudian]

Because they couldn't find a deal that made sense before hand, and because they hoped O'Reilly/Newport would cave at the last second.

So you think Sakic and Roy might be incompetent idiots?

Finding a deal that makes sense is completely irrelevant when you are faced with either signing him before arbitration and then trading him or going through arbitration and then trading him. It's all about making sure the player has the maximum trade value.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Another thing for those who think the Duchene cap is stupid, have you looked at our cap situation? Do you realize the Avs actually can't afford much more than 6m?

 

[Avs_19]

No he didn't take a discount but he left money on the table by signing early and not bleeding the Avs for every penny.

If you look back now you can say he left money on the table but when he signed the contract, he was cashing in while having a career year. He hasn't been very consistent over his career and he's a goalie so it was a smart idea to take that long-term extension when he did.

Because the Avs are not going to sign someone long term just to trade them. And as desirable around the league O'Reilly is it's not as easy as it sounds to unload an albatross contract.

$6.75M/yr would be an albatross? I think teams that need centers would consider that a steal. A 29 year old Stastny just got $7M/yr.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Vezina and Hart finalist, clear MVP of the team? The Avs were SMART signing him when they did. Can you imagine him holding that over their heads negotiating now? Plus whatever KHL BS he could have pulled. It could easily have been a fiasco. Yes he had to buy in, just like anyone else signing long term. O'Reilly is a top 5 player on this team for me but Varly is much more important. It's funny to me the perception of oh he was only good one year but yet O'Reilly only really put up big points one year too yet Varly got paid too much.

ROR has brought something else beyond his point totals. which weren't that much better either this year.

varly wasn't hart trophy finalist.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Varly still should have waited until this summer. At that point even if things went down he still was having a good year and if things turned out well (which they did) he could have held them hostage for more.

O'Reilly isn't signing that contract for just 4 years. And with how everyone treats an inch of cap space like gold very few teams would be willing to take on that kind of contract even for a player they want. I'm sure someone would, especially a team that pretends there is no such thing as a cap but the market isn't going to be as full as everyone thinks. Even the great Weber is considered almost an untradable contract.

 

[Foppa2118]

So you think Sakic and Roy might be incompetent idiots?

Finding a deal that makes sense is completely irrelevant when you are faced with either signing him before arbitration and then trading him or going through arbitration and then trading him. It's all about making sure the player has the maximum trade value.

How is the returns being offered for O'Reilly completely irrelevant to when you trade him? And why would that make Sakic and Roy idiots for not trading him for a weak return before his arbitration, with the hopes of finding a deal that actually helps you later on?

What would make someone an incompetent idiot would be making a dumb trade before the arbitration hearing, when this is the most important trade they'll likely make in a decade. They can't screw it up.

We have no idea what his trade value will be pre and post arbitration. One could easily be higher than the other. It all depends on which team is interested, and what's going on with their own roster.

Late in the summer is the worst time to try and trade someone anyway. Teams have their rosters set for the most part, and you rarely ever see any deals then for just this reason.

 

[Balthazar]

Vezina and Hart finalist, clear MVP of the team?

Varly wasn't any of these things at the time though. The question isn't "did the AVS do the right thing" the question is "did he buy into the ideas of a payout structure" and the answer is no.

He didn't buy into anything because he signed for slightly above market value at the time of the signing.

 

[tigervixxxen]

ROR has brought something else beyond his point totals. which weren't that much better either this year.

varly wasn't hart trophy finalist.

Ok not a finalist in the awards sense but top 5 can be considered a "finalist" in other measures. Semantics anyway, finishing 4th in the Hart is worth something. All my point is don't you think Varly could have made negotiations hell?

 

[InjuredChoker]

Varly wasn't any of these things at the time though. The question isn't "did the AVS do the right thing" the question is "did he buy into the ideas of a payout structure" and the answer is no.

He didn't buy into anything because he signed for slightly above market value at the time of the signing.

yup. ROR was willing to agree to that when he wanted that 5x5 deal.

 

[Prongo]

Flyers fan just checking in

What are the chances you guys actually move him? At least an educated guess?

 

[Freudian]

How is the returns being offered for O'Reilly completely irrelevant to when you trade him? And why would that make Sakic and Roy idiots for not trading him for a weak return before his arbitration, with the hopes of finding a deal that actually helps you later on?

What would make someone an incompetent idiot would be making a dumb trade before the arbitration hearing, when this is the most important trade they'll likely make in a decade. They can't screw it up.

You have know idea what his trade value will be pre and post arbitration. One could easily be higher than the other. It all depends on which team is interested, and what's going on with their own roster.

Late in the summer is the worst time to try and trade someone anyway. Teams have their rosters set for the most part, and you rarely ever see any deals then for just this reason.

Every GM in the league has been watching O'Reilly and his agent and how they handle negotiations.

I guarantee that O'Reilly on a long term contract is much more attractive than O'Reilly on a two year contract. Who the hell would want to negotiate with them in 2016 when he's a pending UFA? If Sakic/Roy doesn't realize this, they're in over their heads.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Varly wasn't any of these things at the time though. The question isn't "did the AVS do the right thing" the question is "did he buy into the ideas of a payout structure" and the answer is no.

He didn't buy into anything because he signed for slightly above market value at the time of the signing.

My point is why did he sign then, it had no benefit for him to do so. And by late January he was having a damn good season. It's not like he signed in October.

 

[Avs_19]

Another thing for those who think the Duchene cap is stupid, have you looked at our cap situation? Do you realize the Avs actually can't afford much more than 6m?

Come on, they can easily make it work. You know that too. Give O'Reilly $7M/yr and Barrie $3M/yr and they're still fine. Once they send someone down (Cliche?) to get to the roster limit, they'll still have over $1M in cap room. If Wilson goes, even better.

Being that close to the cap isn't ideal but it's only for this season because of the dead weight (Briere, Wilson, Zanon's buyout). Stuart's contract isn't great either for what he brings and he should be gone next season as well. Everyone is also expecting the cap to go up so that'll be even more cap space going forward.

Varly still should have waited until this summer. At that point even if things went down he still was having a good year and if things turned out well (which they did) he could have held them hostage for more.

O'Reilly isn't signing that contract for just 4 years. And with how everyone treats an inch of cap space like gold very few teams would be willing to take on that kind of contract even for a player they want. I'm sure someone would, especially a team that pretends there is no such thing as a cap but the market isn't going to be as full as everyone thinks. Even the great Weber is considered almost an untradable contract.

Now you're just making stuff up.

 

[InjuredChoker]

Ok not a finalist in the awards sense but top 5 can be considered a "finalist" in other measures. Semantics anyway, finishing 4th in the Hart is worth something. All my point is don't you think Varly could have made negotiations hell?

he could've for sure.

but it's not the same thing here. we don't know for sure what exactly either side wants. and if there is still bad blood from previous negotiations (though that is probably on ROR as management has changed).

 

[InjuredChoker]

My point is why did he sign then, it had no benefit for him to do so. And by late January he was having a damn good season. It's not like he signed in October.

goalies are crap shoot, they fall off and have great/bad seasons when no one expects it.

 

[hockeyfish]

Flyers fan just checking in

What are the chances you guys actually move him? At least an educated guess?

This season, probably 1%. It would take O'Reilly basically refusing to report to make it happen.