#OReillyWatch - Summer of 2014 - Part II

[tigervixxxen]

Flyers fan just checking in

What are the chances you guys actually move him? At least an educated guess?

Depends if he goes through the arbitration or not. Many believe because of the offer sheet that there won't be any compromise in the situation but nobody really knows what he really wants. If it goes through arbitration the Avs will absolutely move him. Maybe not by the beginning of the season but sometime this year.

 

[The Shermanator]

Flyers fan just checking in

What are the chances you guys actually move him? At least an educated guess?

If somehow he signs long term I'd say 20%

If he signs a 1 or 2 year deal I'd say 80%

 

[Freudian]

Flyers fan just checking in

What are the chances you guys actually move him? At least an educated guess?

No one here has the slightest idea. We don't know if serious negotiations have started and we don't know what Avs are offering and what O'Reilly is asking.

 

[Foppa2118]

Every GM in the league has been watching O'Reilly and his agent and how they handle negotiations.

I guarantee that O'Reilly on a long term contract is much more attractive than O'Reilly on a two year contract. Who the hell would want to negotiate with them in 2016 when he's a pending UFA? If Sakic/Roy doesn't realize this, they're in over their heads.

Absolutely O'Reilly on a long term contract is more attractive than on a one or two year and set for UFA.

That doesn't necessarily mean the returns offered for him will absolutely be higher before his arbitration hearing, than after.

The level of interest, and motivation for teams to make trades changes all the time. That would be their reason for waiting to trade him. That's why I said that.

I also don't get the sense Sakic will trade him before the hearing anyway. He seems set on seeing it through, and then re-evaluating their options afterward.

 

[hockeyfish]

Absolutely O'Reilly on a long term contract is more attractive than on a one or two year and set for UFA.

That doesn't necessarily mean the returns offered for him will absolutely be higher before his arbitration hearing, than after.

The level of interest, and motivation for teams to make trades changes all the time. That would be their reason for waiting to trade him. That's why I said that.

I also don't get the sense Sakic will trade him before the hearing anyway. He seems set on seeing it through, and then re-evaluating their options afterward.

It's almost impossible to trade him before his hearing anyway.

 

[InjuredChoker]

It's almost impossible to trade him before his hearing anyway.

no but getting the optimal return is.

 

[Freudian]

Absolutely O'Reilly on a long term contract is more attractive than on a one or two year and set for UFA.

That doesn't necessarily mean the returns offered for him will absolutely be higher before his arbitration hearing, than after.

The level of interest, and motivation for teams to make trades changes all the time. That would be their reason for waiting to trade him. That's why I said that.

I also don't get the sense Sakic will trade him before the hearing anyway. He seems set on seeing it through, and then re-evaluating their options afterward.

You don't have to trade him before arbitration just because you sign him before arbitration. You can wait until next draft if you wanted to.

No matter when they trade him, if they decide to go that route, O'Reilly at a higher salary (unless it's a stupidly high one) on a long term deal is worth more than O'Reilly on an arbitration awarded two year deal.

 

[Balthazar]

My point is why did he sign then, it had no benefit for him to do so.

Really? There he was, a goalie with historically below average NHL stats who just had a great half season and managed to double his salary because of it. He ended up making as much as UFA Ryan Miller and Stanley Cup winners Corey Crawford and MA Fleury. That's a heck of a win.

If he waits and then have a bad second half, what will happen? Back to 3M, if that? If anything the AVS took a much bigger risk than Varly.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Come on, they can easily make it work. You know that too. Give O'Reilly $7M/yr and Barrie $3M/yr and they're still fine. Once they send someone down (Cliche?) to get to the roster limit, they'll still have over $1M in cap room. If Wilson goes, even better.

Being that close to the cap isn't ideal but it's only for this season because of the dead weight (Briere, Wilson, Zanon's buyout). Stuart's contract isn't great either for what he brings and he should be gone next season as well. Everyone is also expecting the cap to go up so that'll be even more cap space going forward.



Now you're just making stuff up.

If you knew me you'd know making **** up is the absolute last thing I would do on here. It's what one of the insiders said at one time. Is it that unfathomable that a huge contract is tough to move even from a premiere player?

You really think the Avs are going to operate that close to the cap? And they only get the savings if they send someone down the whole year. If they have to call them up the meter starts running again.

 

[InjuredChoker]

If you knew me you'd know making **** up is the absolute last thing I would do on here. It's what one of the insiders said at one time. Is it that unfathomable that a huge contract is tough to move even from a premiere player?

You really think the Avs are going to operate that close to the cap? And they only get the savings if they send someone down the whole year. If they have to call them up the meter starts running again.

who insider said that weber contract is unmovable?

 

[tigervixxxen]

Really? There he was, a goalie with historically below average NHL stats who just had a great half season and managed to double his salary because of it. He ended up making as much as UFA Ryan Miller and Stanley Cup winners Corey Crawford and MA Fleury. That's a heck of a win.

If he waits and then have a bad second half, what will happen? Back to 3M, if that? If anything the AVS took a much bigger risk than Varly.

Awful hypocritical to think Varly isn't worth much and was just going to take pennies. He had 30 wins by then, no way he wasn't getting paid regardless of what happened in the last month of the season.

 

[Foppa2118]

You don't have to trade him before arbitration just because you sign him before arbitration. You can wait until next draft if you wanted to.

No matter when they trade him, if they decide to go that route, O'Reilly at a higher salary (unless it's a stupidly high one) on a long term deal is worth more than O'Reilly on an arbitration awarded two year deal.

I guess I misunderstood you when you asked why they would let it go to arbitration.

That's certainly an option, but I don't see the Avs doing that either. I don't see them preaching about their structure, and then signing O'Reilly to a deal that breaks that structure, just to wait potentially six months to a year to trade him and say, "see we're sticking to our structure."

I think we'll see a trade pretty soon after a deal like that, but also like I mentioned, I doubt he's traded before the arbitration anyway. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think he'll either sign a legit deal with the Avs beforehand, or go to arbitration and then be traded.

 

[tigervixxxen]

who insider said that weber contract is unmovable?

I do not remember exactly but it's just an example. If you want me to strike it from my post because I don't have exact evidence then fine. But I stand by my point that it's not as easy as it sounds to trade a mega contract. If some team wanted O'Reilly at any cost then should have offer sheeted him.

 

[Avs_19]

If you knew me you'd know making **** up is the absolute last thing I would do on here. It's what one of the insiders said at one time. Is it that unfathomable that a huge contract is tough to move even from a premiere player?

You really think the Avs are going to operate that close to the cap? And they only get the savings if they send someone down the whole year. If they have to call them up the meter starts running again.

Which insider said $7.8M/yr for arguably the best defenseman in the league is untradeable? Not saying you're lying and you didn't hear that but it just sounds ridiculous to me.

This season I think they'll have to operate that close to the cap. The general consensus is that O'Reilly and Barrie will get around $9M, maybe a bit higher than that. They'll barely have a mill in cap space even if O'Reilly buys in and takes the same as Duchene.

 

[Freudian]

I guess I misunderstood you when you asked why they would let it go to arbitration.

That's certainly an option, but I don't see the Avs doing that either. I don't see them preaching about their structure, and then signing O'Reilly to a deal that breaks that structure, just to wait potentially six months to a year to trade him and say, "see we're sticking to our structure."

I think we'll see a trade pretty soon after a deal like that, but also like I mentioned, I doubt he's traded before the arbitration anyway. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think he'll either sign a legit deal with the Avs beforehand, or go to arbitration and then be traded.

That's my point. If Roy/Sakic create all these silly rules that get in the way of keeping O'Reilly or getting the most value if he's traded, they're incompetent. They might be steadfast in their incompetence, which may impress some, but still they would be incompetent.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Ok maybe untradable wasn't the right word but difficult to trade. Obviously Nashville would want decent pieces in return and that it would be difficult to find someone who can take that contract. When getting to 7+ on a contract that's tough for many teams to fit in.

And I'm also saying there is a big difference between O'Reilly and Barrie being 9 million vs 10 million. One they will be close, the other they will have no room. Things like that do matter.

 

[InjuredChoker]

I do not remember exactly but it's just an example. If you want me to strike it from my post because I don't have exact evidence then fine. But I stand by my point that it's not as easy as it sounds to trade a mega contract. If some team wanted O'Reilly at any cost then should have offer sheeted him.

the cap hit issues are so far down the road that current GMs don't care about that. it might not even be issue that much if he retires early as preds get most of the recapture penalty. lot of the money is already paid.

 

[hockeyfish]

no but getting the optimal return is.

No, sign and trades are almost impossible to pull off in the NHL not going to happen.

You guys are so melodramatic.

 

[AslanRH]

Come on, they can easily make it work. You know that too. Give O'Reilly $7M/yr and Barrie $3M/yr and they're still fine. Once they send someone down (Cliche?) to get to the roster limit, they'll still have over $1M in cap room. If Wilson goes, even better.

Being that close to the cap isn't ideal but it's only for this season because of the dead weight (Briere, Wilson, Zanon's buyout). Stuart's contract isn't great either for what he brings and he should be gone next season as well. Everyone is also expecting the cap to go up so that'll be even more cap space going forward.

So it is ok to pay 7m for an RFA with a career avg of 17G - 28A - 45pts / 82 gms and 25G - 38A - 63pt / 82 gms the last 2 years, but not 6.25-6.5m to a UFA with a career 24G - 45A - 69pt and 2 yr 25G - 37A - 62pt production?

That seems very un-structure like.

 

[AvsWraith]

If he does end up taking the two year UFA deal, I don't see how Sakic and Roy are going to get great value for him when the potential for him to just walk is that high. I'm wondering if Sakic and Roy allow Newport to try and reach a long term deal with another team and then make the trade, should ROR decide to go that route.

 

[InjuredChoker]

No, sign and trades are almost impossible to pull off in the NHL not going to happen.

You guys are so melodramatic.

it's not realistic and i don't think it will happen but it's possible.

 

[Foppa2118]

That's my point. If Roy/Sakic create all these silly rules that get in the way of keeping O'Reilly or getting the most value if he's traded, they're incompetent. They might be steadfast in their incompetence, which may impress some, but still they would be incompetent.

I think that depends on the returns they can get after the arbitration.

You could also interpret their seeing the process through as genuinely giving Ryan every opportunity to sign a deal at a very fair $5.9-6M.

 

[Balthazar]

Awful hypocritical to think Varly isn't worth much and was just going to take pennies. He had 30 wins by then, no way he wasn't getting paid regardless of what happened in the last month of the season.

He had exactly 27 wins when they announced it (safe to assume that it was less than that when the negociations were taking place) and was coming off a season with a SV% of .903. Prior to that he had been splitting time in the NHL and the AHL.

Since you believe that he took a discount at 6M, how much does that worth for you? 7M? 8M? Same as Jonathan Quick?

 

[tigervixxxen]

And those who say O'Reilly won't have any value if he doesn't sign long term, does Subban have any value? What if he goes through arbitration? Would Montreal sell him for scraps then?

 

[Avs_19]

So it is ok to pay 7m for an RFA with a career avg of 17G - 28A - 45pts / 82 gms and 25G - 38A - 63pt / 82 gms the last 2 years, but not 6.25-6.5m to a UFA with a career 24G - 45A - 69pt and 2 yr 25G - 37A - 62pt production?

That seems very un-structure like.

Never said I'd pay O'Reilly $7M/yr. I was just saying if they decided to do that, we'd still be fine when it comes to the cap.

But that's not a great comparison regardless. You're comparing a 28 year old center to a 23 year old winger. We're set at center but need help on the wing. The age also makes a big difference.