#OReillyWatch - Summer of 2014 - Part II

[Freudian]

Toews and Kane have their name on the Cup twice, Kane having scored a Cup winning goal. O'Reilly is not in that conversation.

I'm not saying he's going to ask for the same. Just that when the top forward salaries in the league goes from $8.7M-9.5M to $10.8M, it pulls other salaries with them.

 

[shadow1]

I'm not saying he's going to ask for the same. Just that when the top forward salaries in the league goes from $8.7M-9.5M to $10.8M, it pulls other salaries with them.

Duchene, Landeskog, and Varlamov have contracts that are going to look like the Perry/Getzlaf (great value) contracts (of yesteryear) about 2-3 years from now.

Colorado will theoretically/hopefully use the extra space towards bringing in a "final piece" star player to try to push them over the time.

 

[Balthazar]

Duchene, Landeskog, and Varlamov have contracts that are going to look like the Perry/Getzlaf (great value) contracts (of yesteryear) about 2-3 years from now.

I wish they signed Duchene for a much longer term (7-8 years), his contract is only good for 4 more seasons, which isn't enough considering that EJ and Mack have 2 years left and we're not done with ROR yet.

If we want to keep them all for a while we need long term as salaries are going to get crazier and crazier. It will suck to have to choose which ones we keep in 6-7 years (see Sakic/Forsberg/Blake/Foote) but at least that gives us time to develop other players. 4 years of Duchene is too damn short.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Its 5 years of Duchene and if anyone will be reasonable it will be him, I'm not worried about him going psycho on us.

 

[Balthazar]

Its 5 years of Duchene and if anyone will be reasonable it will be him, I'm not worried about him going psycho on us.

We all thought the same with Kane and Toews until they turned around and asked for 12M each. So it's still risky even for Duchene.

 

[Foppa2118]

I said he was closer to a third liner than a first liner, ie a low end second liner.

Simmonds is great around the net on the PP (something Roy doesn't use at all on his PP), strong and decent on the cycle.

It's a massive downgrade going from O'Reilly to Simmonds. Much larger than it might seem if you just check their point production.

Luckily Flyers have painted themselves in the corner when it comes to the cap, so it's not a trade that's realistic.

Your characterization of going from O'Reilly to Simmonds as a "massive downgrade" is a little much IMO. It's obviously a downgrade, but what kind of forward are you expecting to get to replace him? A 40 goal scorer? A 50 goal scorer?

Who cares how he gets his goals. Front of the net. On the PP. It doesn't matter. You think he wouldn't score goals in front of the net, or on the PP with the Avs?

If you're expecting to replace O'Reilly that's simply not happening. If they have to trade him, they'll have to find the best available return. If they wait to try and find a deal to replace O'Reilly, they'll be sitting on their hands for the next five years or so until a deal like that comes around.

Hes really not.

Interesting answer. I'll retort with yes, he really is.

If the Avs don't need a 25 year old physical power forward that's tenacious and never stops working on the forecheck, will fight, and consistently score around 30 goals, and is under contract for five more years at $3.975, than what type of forward do they need? Someone who plays a one dimensional finesse game and is over paid? If you say O'Reilly then that's just silly, because they're not finding another one of those.

 

[Freudian]

Your characterization of going from O'Reilly to Simmonds as a "massive downgrade" is a little much IMO. It's obviously a downgrade, but what kind of forward are you expecting to get to replace him? A 40 goal scorer? A 50 goal scorer?

Who cares how he gets his goals. Front of the net. On the PP. It doesn't matter. You think he wouldn't score goals in front of the net, or on the PP with the Avs?

If you're expecting to replace O'Reilly that's simply not happening. If they have to trade him, they'll have to find the best available return. If they wait to try and find a deal to replace O'Reilly, they'll be sitting on their hands for the next five years or so until a deal like that comes around.



Interesting answer. I'll retort with yes, he really is.

If the Avs don't need a 25 year old physical power forward that's tenacious and never stops working on the forecheck, will fight, and consistently score around 30 goals, and is under contract for five more years at $3.975, than what type of forward do they need? Someone who plays a one dimensional finesse game and is over paid? If you say O'Reilly then that's just silly, because they're not finding another one of those.

We have to disagree on how good Simmonds is. I've watched a lot of Flyers games and he's a guy that's very effective within their PP, where he scores half his goals. I don't think it would translate to Avs who don't have anyone that can run a PP like Giroux and Roy doesn't even prefer to have a net presence on the PP. Outside of the PP he's an average player. He's a likable player because there is some grit to his game but O'Reilly is a much better hockey player.

Can we please stop with these false choice arguments that this is the best Avs can get so we better accept it. We have no idea what would be offered for O'Reilly. We don't even know what contract O'Reilly would be under if he was traded.

 

[Balthazar]

ROR + Elliott + Hejda for Simmonds + Coburn.

 

[dahrougem2]

What do you mean no proof? It's a medical fact. Google it.

There's a reason why some people have so many concussions while others don't. It's not because of repeat badluck, it's because they have broken the chemistry in their brain.

If you follow combat sport it's quite obvious, after being KO'd 2 or 3 times, most fighters will end up with a "glass chin" and will get ko'd again and again by the weakest punches.

IIRC, Sidney Crosby, Joey Hishon and Peter Mueller have all been quoted or paraphrased as saying that their doctors told them once they were 100% healed from their concussion, they were at no greater risk than any other player. It's a different story if they're still suffering even from the slightest of symptoms and they get clocked again. But if they are completely, 100% recovered, and it does take a while, they are no more prone to getting concussions than any other player

 

[InjuredChoker]

Athletes with multiple concussions took longer to return to play with each subsequent concussion

Clin J Sport Med. 2014 May;24(3):233-7. doi: 10.1097/JSM.0000000000000017.
Mechanisms of injury for concussions in university football, ice hockey, and soccer.

A history of concussion is associated with a higher risk of sustaining another concussion. ▸ A greater number, severity and duration of symptoms after a concussion are predictors of a prolonged recovery

Br J Sports Med. 2013 Jan;47(1):15-26. doi: 10.1136/bjsports-2012-091941.
American Medical Society for Sports Medicine position statement: concussion in sport.

A high level of certainty for increased risk of a subsequent concussion in athletes sustaining more than one previous concussion was reported in 10 of 13 studies.

Br J Sports Med. 2014 Jan;48(2):91-7. doi: 10.1136/bjsports-2013-092734. Epub 2013 Sep 19.
Risk factors for sports concussion: an evidence-based systematic review.

there are more but can't search them now.

 

[Balthazar]

there are more but can't search them now.

It's not like it's up for debate anyway. It's a well known medical fact.

 

[Miri]

O'Reilly for Drouin lets go

If there was no chance of keeping him, i woud do this. Having MacKinnon paired with Drouin on top of Duchene + Landeskog would be...acceptable

 

[AslanRH]

I just had the worst dream after thinking of a FWD + D trade in the ROR discussion last night.

The whole first page of the Trade Board was
ROR+Barrie for Kadri + Gardiner
and
ROR for Lupol + Fransen proposals

 

[ABasin]

IIRC, Sidney Crosby, Joey Hishon and Peter Mueller have all been quoted or paraphrased as saying that their doctors told them once they were 100% healed from their concussion, they were at no greater risk than any other player. It's a different story if they're still suffering even from the slightest of symptoms and they get clocked again. But if they are completely, 100% recovered, and it does take a while, they are no more prone to getting concussions than any other player

I don't believe that's quite correct. I was told that if the person does get that next concussion, he/she is more prone to that next concussion being a 'more severe one', than if they never had one prior.

This proved absolutely true in our case. I have a family member who had two concussions over the course of 12 months, and while the first concussion was a result of a nasty blow to the head, the second one (a year later) was a fairly mild, innocuous hit to the head. I was there and saw both of them live, and couldn't believe that she was so hurt from such a mild blow that second time. However, that second concussion was far, far, far incredibly worse than the first one. The effects lasted for months.

So that person went to the concussion specialists in Golden (we were told by multiple doctors/trainers that these are the best concussion docs in Colorado), and they told us exactly this: Subsequent concussions can get worse and worse, even if the blow to the head isn't as severe as the first time. We were also told that concussions often are absolutely cumulative, not individual events, even if they happen after complete recovery. These are not my words - they come from the doctors at the REAP Concussion Management Program at Rocky Mountain Hospital for Children.

 

[AslanRH]

I don't believe that's quite correct. I was told that if the person does get that next concussion, he/she is more prone to that next concussion being a 'more severe one', than if they never had one prior.

I have a family member who had two concussions over the course of 12 months, and that person went to the concussion specialists in Golden (we were told by multiple doctors that these are the best concussion docs in Colorado), and they told us exactly that: Subsequent concussions get worse and worse, even if the blow to the head isn't as severe as the first time. We were told that concussions are absolutely cumulative, not individual events, even if they happen after complete recovery.

This is correct to my understanding as well.

My friend, her dad has been a physician going on 50 years now, had to pull her 12 year old son out of football because he got 2 pretty good concussions in 2 years.

Her dad basically said with the new research and findings coming out her son shouldn't be allowed near a contact sport until he's at least 20.

 

[ABasin]

This is correct to my understanding as well.

My friend, her dad has been a physician going on 50 years now, had to pull her 12 year old son out of football because he got 2 pretty good concussions in 2 years.

Her dad basically said with the new research and findings coming out her son shouldn't be allowed near a contact sport until he's at least 20.

In our case, the retirement from contact sports was immediate and permanent.

 

[McVirginOil]

Heya, Oilers fan here
Just would like to get some good insight on what you want from the Oilers in return for ROR?

 

[niwotsblessing]

Heya, Oilers fan here
Just would like to get some good insight on what you want from the Oilers in return for ROR?

Taylor Hall.

 

[Gigantor The Goalie]

Heya, Oilers fan here
Just would like to get some good insight on what you want from the Oilers in return for ROR?

Avs need defence, particularly a top 2 defender...Oilers don't have one
Avs next need for ROR would be a winger...Hall I think would be the only winger the Avs would want

Unless Nurse turns into a top 4 defender immediately and is packaged with Eberle then the Avs will definitely not be interested

 

[AslanRH]

Heya, Oilers fan here
Just would like to get some good insight on what you want from the Oilers in return for ROR?

If it had to be Edmonton, I'd want Marincin + Perron + pretty good pick in 2015 or at least a sizable swap of pick position, but I'll probably get yelled at now.

I think the Avs can target a team like Pittsburgh, Arizona, or Nashville though and get more what they would be looking for in a quality defenseman.

 

[Alex Jones]

I don't believe that's quite correct. I was told that if the person does get that next concussion, he/she is more prone to that next concussion being a 'more severe one', than if they never had one prior.

This proved absolutely true in our case. I have a family member who had two concussions over the course of 12 months, and while the first concussion was a result of a nasty blow to the head, the second one (a year later) was a fairly mild, innocuous hit to the head. I was there and saw both of them live, and couldn't believe that she was so hurt from such a mild blow that second time. However, that second concussion was far, far, far incredibly worse than the first one. The effects lasted for months.

So that person went to the concussion specialists in Golden (we were told by multiple doctors/trainers that these are the best concussion docs in Colorado), and they told us exactly this: Subsequent concussions can get worse and worse, even if the blow to the head isn't as severe as the first time. We were also told that concussions often are absolutely cumulative, not individual events, even if they happen after complete recovery. These are not my words - they come from the doctors at the REAP Concussion Management Program at Rocky Mountain Hospital for Children.

There's a reason getting knocked out hard essentially ends a lot of boxers careers. Your chin is never the same after getting KO'ed.

 

[ABasin]

There's a reason getting knocked out hard essentially ends a lot of boxers careers. Your chin is never the same after getting KO'ed.

It's not the chin that's never the same. It's the brain.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I haven't seen a lot of Wheeler this year but would you guys do a deal centered on ROR and Wheeler?

Both teams aren't losing offense and salary wise it would be pretty close but:

- it gives WIN the opportunity to move Little back to RW where he feels more comfortable. It also gives them that C they have needed for for so long

- it gives the Avs the opportunity to move Tanguay back to LW and it gives size to the forward group which is one thing management wants.

From what I know of Wheeler I think I would.

 

[StayAtHomeAv]

I think Wheeler is an amazing player. But I would not trade RoR for him.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I think Wheeler is an amazing player. But I would not trade RoR for him.

I wasn't saying one-for-one. That's why I said centered on these players. There could be other pieces involved to make it worth it.