#OReillyWatch - Summer of 2014 - Part II

[hockeyfish]

And those who say O'Reilly won't have any value if he doesn't sign long term, does Subban have any value? What if he goes through arbitration? Would Montreal sell him for scraps then?

People seem to think that going to arbitration means hand to hand mortal combat. I don't know why everyone is so convinced that it is the worst thing ever.

 

[Balthazar]

If he does end up taking the two year UFA deal, I don't see how Sakic and Roy are going to get great value for him when the potential for him to just walk is that high. I'm wondering if Sakic and Roy allow Newport to try and reach a long term deal with another team and then make the trade, should ROR decide to go that route.

They aren't going to get a great value but will probably attach something to the trade if he signs long term with the new team. Like a 1st round pick. That's what they usually do.

 

[tigervixxxen]

He had exactly 27 wins when they announced it (safe to assume that it was less than that when the negociations were taking place) and was coming off a season with a SV% of .903. Prior to that he had been splitting time in the NHL and the AHL.

Since you believe that he took a discount at 6M, how much does that worth for you? 7M? 8M? Same as Jonathan Quick?

I don't say he took a discount, I think his contract is just right. My point is he could have made things much, much more difficult. I don't know what his agent could have dreamt up. Considering the majority of people think he's the team MVP and we wouldn't have made the playoffs without him just think if we were in the same scenario with him and not O'Reilly and how many people would be saying "pay him!" and facing starting the season with Berra as our goalie and how much people would be willing to pay him then. Just think about it is all I'm asking.

 

[InjuredChoker]

People seem to think that going to arbitration means hand to hand mortal combat. I don't know why everyone is so convinced that it is the worst thing ever.

nice comp.

but you don't think it's much much better if this doesn't drag that long? arb. things can be pretty nasty and considering the circumstances here..

i mean avs management is trying to trash him all they can, saying he's just product of duchene and lando, only scores against crappy teams, soft as he doesn't hit etc/whatever.

 

[hockeyfish]

nice comp.

but you don't think it's much much better if this doesn't drag that long? arb. things can be pretty nasty and considering the circumstances here..

i mean avs management is trying to trash him all they can, saying he's just product of duchene and lando, only scores against crappy teams, soft as he doesn't hit etc/whatever.

Obviously they will want to get something done before, everyone does. But arbitration isn't the death blow to the relationship that people make it out to be. Stuff will be said, but as O'Reilly had already mentioned, that is the ugly side of business, not the fun side of hockey.

 

[Avs_19]

Obviously they will want to get something done before, everyone does. But arbitration isn't the death blow to the relationship that people make it out to be. Stuff will be said, but as O'Reilly had already mentioned, that is the ugly side of business, not the fun side of hockey.

For this particular relationship I think it would be the death blow.

 

[Foppa2118]

People seem to think that going to arbitration means hand to hand mortal combat. I don't know why everyone is so convinced that it is the worst thing ever.

I'm just picturing Pat Morris yelling "Finish HIM!" and O'Reilly ripping Sakic's heart out of his chest or something.

 

[Avs_19]

I'm just picturing Pat Morris yelling "Finish HIM!" and O'Reilly ripping Sakic's heart out of his chest or something.

That would be an interesting match up. One of them hurt himself while celebrating a goal. The other one nearly cut his hand off while cleaning his driveway.

 

[AslanRH]

Never said I'd pay O'Reilly $7M/yr. I was just saying if they decided to do that, we'd still be fine when it comes to the cap.

But that's not a great comparison regardless. You're comparing a 28 year old center to a 23 year old winger. We're set at center but need help on the wing. The age also makes a big difference.

I think it is a very fair comparison.

Two centers with only 3 years of NHL miles difference between them and both still with productive years ahead.

Both smart enough and skilled enough they should successfully be able to move to wing.

I'll edit myself as this is not the Stastny debate though.

 

[Balthazar]

I don't say he took a discount, I think his contract is just right. My point is he could have made things much, much more difficult. I don't know what his agent could have dreamt up. Considering the majority of people think he's the team MVP and we wouldn't have made the playoffs without him just think if we were in the same scenario with him and not O'Reilly and how many people would be saying "pay him!" and facing starting the season with Berra as our goalie and how much people would be willing to pay him then. Just think about it is all I'm asking.

I fully agree with you that it was a great signing for the AVS and I'm glad it's done. Last thing we'd need is another headache.

I also agree that he's worth the money. However, when we put things in context, I disagree that he had to buy into the payout system to sign this contract. It was a very well paid, low risk contract for him

 

[AvsWraith]

And those who say O'Reilly won't have any value if he doesn't sign long term, does Subban have any value? What if he goes through arbitration? Would Montreal sell him for scraps then?

I think the situation is a little different. Forwards, even really good forwards like ROR, get traded a lot more often. High impact young defensemen that have won the Norris trophy just aren't moved. Subban has way more leverage on Montreal than ROR has on us. Going off that reasoning, I think Subban has more value long or short term.

 

[hockeyfish]

For this particular relationship I think it would be the death blow.

There are many ugly business practices that happen during the off season that are forgiven to play hockey. Hell, Sakic nearly bankrupted the owners with his offersheet, yet it was forgiven. I'm pretty sure if anyone understands this, it's O'Reilly and Sakic.

 

[Freudian]

There are many ugly business practices that happen during the off season that are forgiven to play hockey. Hell, Sakic nearly bankrupted the owners with his offersheet, yet it was forgiven. I'm pretty sure if anyone understands this, it's O'Reilly and Sakic.

If Avs have failed getting a contract with O'Reilly done two times when he was a RFA, they're not going to get it done when he's a pending UFA.

 

[AvsWraith]

There are many ugly business practices that happen during the off season that are forgiven to play hockey. Hell, Sakic nearly bankrupted the owners with his offersheet, yet it was forgiven. I'm pretty sure if anyone understands this, it's O'Reilly and Sakic.

A lot of people forget the alternate reason Sakic signed the offer sheet. Sure the money was great, but if I remember correctly, Sakic really wanted to play with Gretzky.

 

[henchman21]

If Avs have failed getting a contract with O'Reilly done two times when he was a RFA, they're not going to get it done when he's a pending UFA.

I agree with this. Whatever this contract is, it will be ROR's last with the Avs.

 

[Balthazar]

There are many ugly business practices that happen during the off season that are forgiven to play hockey. Hell, Sakic nearly bankrupted the owners with his offersheet, yet it was forgiven. I'm pretty sure if anyone understands this, it's O'Reilly and Sakic.

Both Sakic and Roy made it clear that it's business and not personal. The funny thing is at one point, both wouldn't have fit in their own payout structure (Roy at 8.5M and Sakic at 9.9M). In today's money that even more than that.

 

[hockeyfish]

I know for a fact I'm the only one who will say this, but maybe, just maybe, arbitration is the best thing this situation needs. Maybe both sides just need air out their grievances, put it all on the table, before they can move on. Just get it all out there, take the one year deal that still pays him well, but also fits into what the Avs want, and try for that long term deal again next year.

 

[Balthazar]

try for that long term deal again next year.

That's without a doubt the best way to lose him to free agency for nothing or trade him for scraps as a pending UFA. They can't do that.

 

[henchman21]

I know for a fact I'm the only one who will say this, but maybe, just maybe, arbitration is the best thing this situation needs. Maybe both sides just need air out their grievances, put it all on the table, before they can move on. Just get it all out there, take the one year deal that still pays him well, but also fits into what the Avs want, and try for that long term deal again next year.

Then ROR can just accept a 1 year QO and move on to UFA the following year. IMO either ROR is a UFA in 2 years, signed long-term (5-8 years), or traded during this upcoming season.

 

[Balthazar]

Then ROR can just accept a 1 year QO and move on to UFA the following year. IMO either ROR is a UFA in 2 years, signed long-term (5-8 years), or traded during this upcoming season.

So signed long term or traded.

 

[hockeyfish]

Then ROR can just accept a 1 year QO and move on to UFA the following year. IMO either ROR is a UFA in 2 years, signed long-term (5-8 years), or traded during this upcoming season.

I don't really see him accepting one or two years really changing anything.

 

[henchman21]

So signed long term or traded.

I wouldn't put it past the Avs to hold on to him for the full 2 years if they felt they could legitimately compete in the 2nd year.

 

[AvsWraith]

I know for a fact I'm the only one who will say this, but maybe, just maybe, arbitration is the best thing this situation needs. Maybe both sides just need air out their grievances, put it all on the table, before they can move on. Just get it all out there, take the one year deal that still pays him well, but also fits into what the Avs want, and try for that long term deal again next year.

Don't see him taking a one year deal and doing this all over again when two and UFA is on the table. Plus, we don't know what the grievances truly are, but some of them are most likely deal breakers for both sides. If Sakic and Roy are truly serious about their structure, and players buying into that structure, then there's not really any place the negotiations can go.

 

[Balthazar]

I wouldn't put it past the Avs to hold on to him for the full 2 years if they felt they could legitimately compete in the 2nd year.

My worst fear. That would be awful management. Keep a guy around that doesn't want to stay and lose him at 25 for nothing. I sincerely hope it doesn't happen.

 

[henchman21]

I don't really see him accepting one or two years really changing anything.

It doesn't because if he accepts the 1 year (which I don't see), he can just accept the QO and move to being a UFA in 2 years.... or he just accepts the 2 year deal in arbitration. He will accept the 2 year in arbitration if it gets there because it sends him to UFA, and he already knows where the Avs will go up to so no point in trying to hammer out another deal as a RFA.