Speculation: Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson next contracts

[CupsOverCash]

Can always look to move the Coburn contract. Also will lose a contract at expansion draft so there is about 5 million right there combined (3.7 + 1.5+) It all adds up, if Kucherov takes 6 million not 6.5, Drouin a 4 million bridge deal and not 5 or 6 million, it is enough to squeeze by till raises are due in 4 years from now.

You still don't get it. We would need to replace Coburn with someone within. Imagine what we would be like if we didn't have Coburn and Garrison next year. And you called my bottom six shaky without Callahan. We are giving Koekkoek and Sustr more ice time sure but then who do we have after that? Nesterov and Masin? Talk about shaky.

Callahan is one of my favorite players but I am Lightning fan first. If he needs to go to keep our top players here then that is exactly what should happen. End of story.

 

[Leonardo87]

You still don't get it. We would need to replace Coburn with someone within. Imagine what we would be like if we didn't have Coburn and Garrison next year. And you called my bottom six shaky without Callahan. We are giving Koekkoek and Sustr more ice time sure but then who do we have after that? Nesterov and Masin? Talk about shaky.

Callahan is one of my favorite players but I am Lightning fan first. If he needs to go to keep our top players here then that is exactly what should happen. End of story.

You also forget a contract will fall off at expansion draft. We are talking about a couple of million here? If the cap does go up, and some discounts are taken, then everything should be fine. That is how I see it. Looking at your scenario, you had 2.7 of cap free, with 1.1 million in bought out cap, so we are talking about 2 million in cap to be able to keep Cally, am I correct? That seems doable.

 

[Sky04]

why do we need to replace fil or callahan with anyone good, these guys are expensive depth players. If we move them we can still afford to wait on Point and Erne considering the core would still be in tact.

 

[garmonbozia]

So who replaces Cally and Flip when they are both gone? If you say Paquette and Brown, you are getting hunted Liam Neeson style. lol.

New AHL'ers coming up won't be ready for at least another two years to take on a full time role.

At least with Cally still here, he can go up and down the line-up from Top 6 to Bottom 6 and is reliable on the 3rd line and it won't be Kermit the frog green like some of these proposed line-ups. You rather handicap this team for several million a year in dead cap, and fill his spot with an inexperienced AHL'er or 4th line bottom dweller. I mean you are going to put Vladdy with Paquette and/or Brown? Come on now.

It's not Paquette and Brown replacing Cally and Flip it's Kucherov and Johnson. That they are earning bigger paydays sooner or larger than we anticipated isn't a bad thing. It's natural for teams to evolve. Our evolution is coming from success.

Johnson replaced Filppula two seasons ago. That Johnson was paid like a third liner meant it was affordable to keep Flip. Even if we were still able to afford a $5M 3rd line center, Namestnikov is ready to assume that role and paid accordingly. Filppula's cap space fits raises to Johnson and Palat into the budget. If we need to lose one of those three it's Filppula, AINEC! Sure it hurts depth, takes some of the insurance versus injury, lessens overall leadership and experience, hurts on faceoffs, etc. But, it is only a necessity because we have better players already outplaying him and it is almost time to see them get paid.

As for Callahan, Kucherov replaced him. Kucherov is going to become a $6 Million dollar man (or thereabouts). He deserves it, he's earning it, and it's a very good thing. Comparatively, Kucherov has been more significantly underpaid for his production to date than Callahan has been overpaid for his. I get that they play incomparable styles, that Callahan brings elements valuable to the team that Kucherov can't and won't. Still, ask any Lightning fan who they would rather have if forced to retain only one and we're all keeping Kucherov (except maybe you, Thunder Buddy). Callahan might still survive Kucherov's new contract. Yzerman and/or Cooper may view him as an integral piece. Callahan has leverage with his NMC. Contract undesirable in trade or buyout. Whatever. Callahan will be moved before not moving him costs us Kucherov (or Drouin).

Stamkos, Johnson, Kucherov, Palat, Drouin, Killorn,
Hedman
Vasilevski

That is probably what we're building around beyond NEXT offseason. Definitive "core". Still plenty of cap space to build around that. Plenty of talent in the organization to fill the majority of holes, including the vets on bigger deals currently. Yzerman has options. Things can and will change, but, there is nothing to panic about. Players come and go and life goes on.

Bishop, Stralman, Callahan, Filppula, Garrison, Coburn, and Boyle all contribute. They're all important to the current team's success. All pretty fairly paid. All of them entirely expendable if needed for cap space between now and when Cally's contract expires. I worry about our defensive depth not having replacements for the likes of Stralman, Garrison, Coburn; or not being able to afford the likes of Koekoek or Sustr more than I worry that we don't have adequate replacements for Flip or Cally.

 

[Fro]

The bottom 6 is becoming like it is for CBJ. Players getting 5min of ice time making 4/5/6m (ok 6is a bit of an exaggeration) but still...players making too much and not making a big enough impact. You can find depth guys in July/August/September that are cheaper and can fill a hole.

example is Vermette. He will end up on a PTO or a vet minimum deal and probably performs on a level of Filp...

There's KRuss still out there that can come in and play on that 3rd pair and provide a bit of spark

There are always options open that may not be perfect, but at the same time, are cheaper alternatives to more expensive players.

 

[PaulGG]

I expect Filpulla and Cally to have better seasons, we will keep them all season and then make decisions. Obviously changes are coming but we really don't have anyone ready to step into their shoes internally yet so if we send them packing now we just need to go out and sign a UFA who isn't in our plans or make a trade to bring someone in just to fill out our roster. Having confidence in these guys who are both great players is the way to go at least for 2017.
Likely we will sign Kuch and Nesterov won't be with us in October.

 

[tjs*]

I expect Filpulla and Cally to have better seasons, we will keep them all season and then make decisions. Obviously changes are coming but we really don't have anyone ready to step into their shoes internally yet so if we send them packing now we just need to go out and sign a UFA who isn't in our plans or make a trade to bring someone in just to fill out our roster. Having confidence in these guys who are both great players is the way to go at least for 2017.
Likely we will sign Kuch and Nesterov won't be with us in October.

It's not about how Flip and Cally are playing; it's about each of them costing us a top-six forward if they're still on the roster in 2017. Even if they do bounce back, would you rather have Flip and Cally or Killorn and Palat?

 

[Leonardo87]

It's not Paquette and Brown replacing Cally and Flip it's Kucherov and Johnson. That they are earning bigger paydays sooner or larger than we anticipated isn't a bad thing. It's natural for teams to evolve. Our evolution is coming from success.

Johnson replaced Filppula two seasons ago. That Johnson was paid like a third liner meant it was affordable to keep Flip. Even if we were still able to afford a $5M 3rd line center, Namestnikov is ready to assume that role and paid accordingly. Filppula's cap space fits raises to Johnson and Palat into the budget. If we need to lose one of those three it's Filppula, AINEC! Sure it hurts depth, takes some of the insurance versus injury, lessens overall leadership and experience, hurts on faceoffs, etc. But, it is only a necessity because we have better players already outplaying him and it is almost time to see them get paid.

As for Callahan, Kucherov replaced him. Kucherov is going to become a $6 Million dollar man (or thereabouts). He deserves it, he's earning it, and it's a very good thing. Comparatively, Kucherov has been more significantly underpaid for his production to date than Callahan has been overpaid for his. I get that they play incomparable styles, that Callahan brings elements valuable to the team that Kucherov can't and won't. Still, ask any Lightning fan who they would rather have if forced to retain only one and we're all keeping Kucherov (except maybe you, Thunder Buddy). Callahan might still survive Kucherov's new contract. Yzerman and/or Cooper may view him as an integral piece. Callahan has leverage with his NMC. Contract undesirable in trade or buyout. Whatever. Callahan will be moved before not moving him costs us Kucherov (or Drouin).

Stamkos, Johnson, Kucherov, Palat, Drouin, Killorn,
Hedman
Vasilevski

That is probably what we're building around beyond NEXT offseason. Definitive "core". Still plenty of cap space to build around that. Plenty of talent in the organization to fill the majority of holes, including the vets on bigger deals currently. Yzerman has options. Things can and will change, but, there is nothing to panic about. Players come and go and life goes on.

Bishop, Stralman, Callahan, Filppula, Garrison, Coburn, and Boyle all contribute. They're all important to the current team's success. All pretty fairly paid. All of them entirely expendable if needed for cap space between now and when Cally's contract expires. I worry about our defensive depth not having replacements for the likes of Stralman, Garrison, Coburn; or not being able to afford the likes of Koekoek or Sustr more than I worry that we don't have adequate replacements for Flip or Cally.

Huh? Kucherov did not replace Cally. Kucherov was meant to be in the top RW spot not Cally but Cooper kept him up there because he actually had some decent chemistry with Stamkos. If anything, Cally played more of his role to what Yzerman signed him to, More this current season than his first year with Tampa. He was brought into to bring a leadership presense, physical play and grit while killing penalties and helping to shutdown the opposing team while providing secondary scoring. Something Kucherov is not suppose to be doing. So there really is no comparison to the players. They are in different roles. Kucherov's main job is to provide offense, Callahan's job is on both ends of the ice. Right now, there is no one in the bottom 6 able to match what Cally does on his level.

It will likely come to Cally or Vladdy next year because of the expansion draft, and I have no problem losing Vladdy to keep Cally for 4 more years. Cally is the better player of the two in the regular season and is also more productive than Vladdy in the playoffs. Doing the math, a 2 million or so cap space will be enough to re-sign everyone and keep Cally. Well according to CupforCash's model. You throw Point at 3C, and Paquette and Brown move down to the 4th line, and have a 3rd line of Conacher - Point - Callahan or even Erne - Point - Callahan. One of the reasons Yzerman brought in Cally was his influence and leadership towards the younger players. At least the bottom 6 will have an experience vet who is a thorn in the opposing players sides and is not green.

 

[Leonardo87]

It's not about how Flip and Cally are playing; it's about each of them costing us a top-six forward if they're still on the roster in 2017. Even if they do bounce back, would you rather have Flip and Cally or Killorn and Palat?

Well in the regular season Killorn has yet to score 20 goals. Cally has like 5 of those under his belt, well one of those was 19, oh well and about a year ago he finished with 24 goals. Was doing that at Killorn's age now, and they are only like 3 or 4 years apart in age, not a major difference. Killorn has his moments in the playoffs, yeah, but have to get there first, and if I was skating with Kucherov and Johnson I would put up points also. Overall, Callahan is a faster skater, better defensively, and a better goal scorer than Killorn. So I would rather keep Pally and Cally to be honest and risk losing Killorn. Won't happen though , he'll get Flip's protection spot, and will likely lose Vladdy or Brown in expansion. Which will make Cally's role more in demand. Free up around 2 million, should be enough to squeeze in those contracts and keep him as well.

 

[Sky04]

Huh? Kucherov did not replace Cally. Kucherov was meant to be in the top RW spot not Cally but Cooper kept him up there because he actually had some decent chemistry with Stamkos. If anything, Cally played more of his role to what Yzerman signed him to, More this current season than his first year with Tampa. He was brought into to bring a leadership presense, physical play and grit while killing penalties and helping to shutdown the opposing team while providing secondary scoring. Something Kucherov is not suppose to be doing. So there really is no comparison to the players. They are in different roles. Kucherov's main job is to provide offense, Callahan's job is on both ends of the ice. Right now, there is no one in the bottom 6 able to match what Cally does on his level.

It will likely come to Cally or Vladdy next year because of the expansion draft, and I have no problem losing Vladdy to keep Cally for 4 more years. Cally is the better player of the two in the regular season and is also more productive than Vladdy in the playoffs. Doing the math, a 2 million or so cap space will be enough to re-sign everyone and keep Cally. Well according to CupforCash's model. You throw Point at 3C, and Paquette and Brown move down to the 4th line, and have a 3rd line of Conacher - Point - Callahan or even Erne - Point - Callahan. One of the reasons Yzerman brought in Cally was his influence and leadership towards the younger players. At least the bottom 6 will have an experience vet who is a thorn in the opposing players sides and is not green.

Considering Kucherov and Drouin were our top-2 RW's in the playoffs, I doubt Callahan can overtake either of them in the top-6.

As for "experienced vet", if we move Callahan, we can resign Boyle. Guy seems like he has much more of an impact on the bottom-6 kids then anyone else.

 

[PossessedHockeyCard*]

Unaffordable price demands will result in one of them getting traded

 

[PaulGG]

It's not about how Flip and Cally are playing; it's about each of them costing us a top-six forward if they're still on the roster in 2017. Even if they do bounce back, would you rather have Flip and Cally or Killorn and Palat?

Sure it is. We can have them both the entire upcoming season and that is the point, no rush or urgency to do anything now.

 

[Steazy Doo]

Sure it is. We can have them both the entire upcoming season and that is the point, no rush or urgency to do anything now.

Expansion draft may make Yzerman hesitant to keep them, depending on how willing he is to lose one of Killorn or Namestnikov

 

[Todd1a]

Expansion draft may make Yzerman hesitant to keep them, depending on how willing he is to lose one of Killorn or Namestnikov

Right now we look to lose killorn to expansion

 

[PaulGG]

Right now we look to lose killorn to expansion

Yes, we will lose one player perhaps Killorn or someone else we would like to keep to Las Vegas unless Steve the magician pulls something off. Silver lining is we are deep and losing one or two although painful we can survive. Other stacked teams are in the same position as we are are will also lose players to expansion and the cap.

 

[TampaJay]

Everyone on here agrees that the 2017-18 lineup will be very different than the one we have now. The question is, will the team be worse off?

There is consensus that Filppula and Garrison have to be moved and can be. Most agree the Bishop will be gone and also Boyle. The great debate is over Callahan. I’m assuming that he will be too difficult to move and that because of that it will cost us one of Palat, Johnson, Drouin, or Killorn. I’m also assuming that KK and Sustr can be re-signed with relatively small raises.

So the lost players are: Filppula, Garrison, Bishop, Boyle, and the unnamed forward who I predict will be Killorn.

The 5 guys that replace them have to be cheap… prospects on ELC or cheap pick ups.

Fippula is replaced by Vlady and a prospect replaces Vlady
Garrison is replaced by KK and a prospect takes his spot on the 3rd line (Blujus, Masin)
Bishop is replace by Vasi and a new cheap backup is brought it.
Boyle is replaced by ? (Richard)
Killorn is replace by Erne.

It looks at first like we may get worse. But that is not taking into account two things: somebody that we will lose could bring back a very good ELC like Honka. And, some of the young players we retain are likely to improve (Drouin, Kuch, Vlady)

I’m slightly optimistic. I don’t see a big drop off. But it all comes down to the prospect pool. It looks good, but there is no one who could realistically replace Johnson or Palat for at least 2-4 years. They have to stay.

 

[Sky04]

Everyone on here agrees that the 2017-18 lineup will be very different than the one we have now. The question is, will the team be worse off?

There is consensus that Filppula and Garrison have to be moved and can be. Most agree the Bishop will be gone and also Boyle. The great debate is over Callahan. I’m assuming that he will be too difficult to move and that because of that it will cost us one of Palat, Johnson, Drouin, or Killorn. I’m also assuming that KK and Sustr can be re-signed with relatively small raises.

So the lost players are: Filppula, Garrison, Bishop, Boyle, and the unnamed forward who I predict will be Killorn.

The 5 guys that replace them have to be cheap… prospects on ELC or cheap pick ups.

Fippula is replaced by Vlady and a prospect replaces Vlady
Garrison is replaced by KK and a prospect takes his spot on the 3rd line (Blujus, Masin)
Bishop is replace by Vasi and a new cheap backup is brought it.
Boyle is replaced by ? (Richard)
Killorn is replace by Erne.

It looks at first like we may get worse. But that is not taking into account two things: somebody that we will lose could bring back a very good ELC like Honka. And, some of the young players we retain are likely to improve (Drouin, Kuch, Vlady)

I’m slightly optimistic. I don’t see a big drop off. But it all comes down to the prospect pool. It looks good, but there is no one who could realistically replace Johnson or Palat for at least 2-4 years. They have to stay.

Exactly my scenario as well, it's Killorn or Callahan depending on if Yzerman can move that contract, I'm sure (almost) everyone would prefer Killorn but it may be unavoidable.

And obviously with a team like ours you're going to lose a current depth guys down the road, it's inevitable, look at Chicago, you just have to keep adjusting as long as you stay competitive you'll be able to attract depth guys at cheap prices yearly. With Kuch and Vasi on the team we have a better chance than most teams to pull another Panarin type player from the KHL..

And like you said, it's going to be a drop-off losing some guys but it won't be anything drastic, the biggest thing is maximizing contract value, we've had significant lee-way the last few years because Kuch, Palat, Johnson and Drouin combined were taking up ~10m in capspace. Yzerman will have to be much more careful with his signings from here.

On the topic of optimism, once Kuch is signed this could be a HUGE year for the Lightning and a strong chance for them to put out the best Lightning roster ever, bounce back years for TKO, Stamkos-post contract, a motivated Drouin, Bishop at his peak and hopefully Conacher and Wiz can make an impact.

 

[TampaJay]

Exactly my scenario as well, it's Killorn or Callahan depending on if Yzerman can move that contract, I'm sure (almost) everyone would prefer Killorn but it may be unavoidable.

And obviously with a team like ours you're going to lose a current depth guys down the road, it's inevitable, look at Chicago, you just have to keep adjusting as long as you stay competitive you'll be able to attract depth guys at cheap prices yearly. With Kuch and Vasi on the team we have a better chance than most teams to pull another Panarin type player from the KHL..

And like you said, it's going to be a drop-off losing some guys but it won't be anything drastic, the biggest thing is maximizing contract value, we've had significant lee-way the last few years because Kuch, Palat, Johnson and Drouin combined were taking up ~10m in capspace. Yzerman will have to be much more careful with his signings from here.

On the topic of optimism, once Kuch is signed this could be a HUGE year for the Lightning and a strong chance for them to put out the best Lightning roster ever, bounce back years for TKO, Stamkos-post contract, a motivated Drouin, Bishop at his peak and hopefully Conacher and Wiz can make an impact.

That is a very wise and interesting point you make about Kuch and Vasi and the Russian implications. I grew up in Michigan (moved here in 2002) and I think that from his days in DET (his teammates), SY has better intel on Russian players. In the first SY/Murray draft they took Vlady and Kuch as their first two when most thought the “Russian factor†made them too high risk. Others thought it was too high risk to pick a Russian goalie at #19. SY has inside information to determine who wants to be in US and who are at a low risk to leave. Vasi recently said he would rather be a NHL backup than a KHL starter. If Gusev makes the move it will be because of guys like Kuch and Vasi. I think you are really on to something. When it comes to the Russian player market, SY and TBL have an advantage.

 

[The Gongshow]

At this rate we'll sign both of them before Kuch

 

[Todd1a]

Johnson and Palat next contracts

What's your prediction for Tyler Johnson and palat the next contracts yzerman will sign them for ? Cap hit ? And term ?

 

[Rschmitz]

7 years, same cap hit as Kuch. Bell curved salary and a limited NTC in the final two years for both.

 

[Sky04]

7 years, same cap hit as Kuch. Bell curved salary and a limited NTC in the final two years for both.

I see 7 years or a very short term deal. Yzerman stated that the term is going to be a major factor in their upcoming contracts. A 7 year deal drives down the caphit or they both take a short term team friendly deal and go for Free Agency hoping that they can both up their values from this point considering both have had 2 down seasons in a row, they won't be getting anything near what they could've gotten 2 years ago.

If I'm Johnson I'd probably go for the long term security deal given his size and injuries. If I'm Palat I'd for short term and try up my value given teams will pay a premium for a player like him if he ever hits the market.

If they sign now, I could see anywhere between 4.8-5.2m.

 

[The Macho King]

I honestly wouldn't want to give either 7 year contracts. I want to say 5 years max. That takes them until they're in their early 30s and still physically able to contribute.

And I think Palat especially has played down his contract. I'd want 5x4.75 max for him, and 5x5.25 for Johnson. That strikes me as about the level they've been playing at, and slightly less than what they would get as UFAs (which is fair since they are RFAs).

 

[DFC]

I see 7 years or a very short term deal. Yzerman stated that the term is going to be a major factor in their upcoming contracts. A 7 year deal drives down the caphit or they both take a short term team friendly deal and go for Free Agency hoping that they can both up their values from this point considering both have had 2 down seasons in a row, they won't be getting anything near what they could've gotten 2 years ago.

If I'm Johnson I'd probably go for the long term security deal given his size and injuries. If I'm Palat I'd for short term and try up my value given teams will pay a premium for a player like him if he ever hits the market.

If they sign now, I could see anywhere between 4.8-5.2m.

Yeah, Palat is exactly the kind of player who teams lose their minds over as a UFA. He could get a top-end contract even if he doesn't have particular strong seasons between now and then, just because of his player type and reputation.

 

[Rschmitz]

I see 7 years or a very short term deal. Yzerman stated that the term is going to be a major factor in their upcoming contracts. A 7 year deal drives down the caphit or they both take a short term team friendly deal and go for Free Agency hoping that they can both up their values from this point considering both have had 2 down seasons in a row, they won't be getting anything near what they could've gotten 2 years ago.

If I'm Johnson I'd probably go for the long term security deal given his size and injuries. If I'm Palat I'd for short term and try up my value given teams will pay a premium for a player like him if he ever hits the market.

If they sign now, I could see anywhere between 4.8-5.2m.

Thats my thinking. I wonder how Yzerman is going to handle NMCs. He could keep Point on the wing and use Peca and Howden as #3 centers of they continue developing, so a limited NTC at the end makes the most sense if like you said, they go long term contract.