Speculation: Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson next contracts

[CupsOverCash]

I just noticed you changed your post in regards to armchair. There are only two natural RW on that roster, and that bottom 6 will be eaten for breakfast.

Also the buy out goes to 3 million in his last two years, already have Carle's buy out costing close to 2 million in those years, So is handcuffing 5 million in dead cap for two seasons really the way to go? You also forget the expansion draft, could easily lose a 2 million contract there, and if the cap does not go up, can always move Coburn as well. That his nearly 6 million there to keep Cally on board while re-signing those 3 guys.

Well according to arm chair the buyout saves us most for next season regarding Callahans contract. This is without us knowing who is gone after the expansion draft which your right could be somebody like Killorn or who knows who it could be. But I had three different things happen with Callahans contract.

I first had Callahan on the roster which worked until I forgot that we had to fill out the rest of the roster. Then things got a little more difficult to make it work.

Then I decided maybe I can trade him and retain 2.5 a year on his remaining deal, but as others have pointed out maybe easier said than done. Then I decided what would happen if I decided to buy him out. So I deleted the trade and Callahan popped back on the roster leaving us almost 2 mil over the cap.

When I bought him out it said that it cost us 1.5 mil a year to do that because after that I had closer to 3 mil left of cap space. It was actually better for our team next year if we bought him out than trade him with retaining 2.5 in cap space.

Maybe long term it doesn't make sense but if we want to keep the 3 guys next year maybe the buyout is the route SY does.

 

[CupsOverCash]

You also have to think a few years down the road maybe the cap goes way up. Would help wouldn't it?

 

[TampaJay]

I just noticed you changed your post in regards to armchair. There are only two natural RW on that roster, and that bottom 6 will be eaten for breakfast.

Also the buy out goes to 3 million in his last two years, already have Carle's buy out costing close to 2 million in those years, So is handcuffing 5 million in dead cap for two seasons really the way to go? You also forget the expansion draft, could easily lose a 2 million contract there, and if the cap does not go up, can always move Coburn as well. That his nearly 6 million there to keep Cally on board while re-signing those 3 guys.

I’m a Cally fan so I am biased, but I like that the team has taken on some of the Cally “personalityâ€. We are better for it. It is hard to measure that in dollars. Buying him out is just bad cap management. A trade is generally unrealistic. Yes, keeping him will mean someone like Killorn is exposed and lost to LV. Who’s more likely to score 20 (assuming Callahan gets healthy)? Moving Callahan (without retaining) means giving up a top prospect like Erne who could replace Killorn. Makes no sense.

 

[Leonardo87]

I’m a Cally fan so I am biased, but I like that the team has taken on some of the Cally “personality”. We are better for it. It is hard to measure that in dollars. Buying him out is just bad cap management. A trade is generally unrealistic. Yes, keeping him will mean someone like Killorn is exposed and lost to LV. Who’s more likely to score 20 (assuming Callahan gets healthy)? Moving Callahan (without retaining) means giving up a top prospect like Erne who could replace Killorn. Makes no sense.

I just feel people are judging him on this past season and think he is done or can never get back or close to his production from his first year here. That is utter BS. He got hurt in November. He does not even need to get to his 50 point season plateau, if he gets close to it, then there should be no issues. Cally at around Killer's age, was racking in 20 goal seasons or on pace for them. They are only like 4 years apart in age. Not a big difference there.

 

[Sky04]

I’m a Cally fan so I am biased, but I like that the team has taken on some of the Cally “personality”. We are better for it. It is hard to measure that in dollars. Buying him out is just bad cap management. A trade is generally unrealistic. Yes, keeping him will mean someone like Killorn is exposed and lost to LV. Who’s more likely to score 20 (assuming Callahan gets healthy)? Moving Callahan (without retaining) means giving up a top prospect like Erne who could replace Killorn. Makes no sense.

Assuming Callahan is healthy he is still a huge underperformer in the playoffs, what's sad is that for Palat/Johnson to stay they'll likely have to take less money than Callahan and they're twice as good.

Best case scenario is that he bounces back, has a good season, raises his trade value and is easier to move. Love him or hate him, his caphit is a detriment to the team. If he can bring it in the playoffs, it'd be a little easier to swallow his cost, but right now? Find a way to move him.

 

[TampaJay]

Assuming Callahan is healthy he is still a huge underperformer in the playoffs, what's sad is that for Palat/Johnson to stay they'll likely have to take less money than Callahan and they're twice as good.

Best case scenario is that he bounces back, has a good season, raises his trade value and is easier to move. Love him or hate him, his caphit is a detriment to the team. If he can bring it in the playoffs, it'd be a little easier to swallow his cost, but right now? Find a way to move him.

OK. As a Cally fan I concede Your points are valid and I can’t argue with them. Cally’s contract is just too high. So it comes down to cost. Is it more costly to keep him or trade him? Will you grant me that it is too costly to buy him out? Keeping him will cost a player that you would really like to retain. Trading him will cost you a pick or a prospect, or retaining a lot of salary which will cost a player. There are costs no matter how you look at it. If the cost were Braydon Point would that be worth keeping Killorn? What about if it took a 1st round pick to move Callahan? It’s a cost-benefit analysis and I don’t know. I just don’t see him waiving his no move, do you? I love the way Callahan plays the game, but I admit his contract is an albatross on the team.

 

[Sky04]

OK. As a Cally fan I concede Your points are valid and I can’t argue with them. Cally’s contract is just too high. So it comes down to cost. Is it more costly to keep him or trade him? Will you grant me that it is too costly to buy him out? Keeping him will cost a player that you would really like to retain. Trading him will cost you a pick or a prospect, or retaining a lot of salary which will cost a player. There are costs no matter how you look at it. If the cost were Braydon Point would that be worth keeping Killorn? What about if it took a 1st round pick to move Callahan? It’s a cost-benefit analysis and I don’t know. I just don’t see him waiving his no move, do you? I love the way Callahan plays the game, but I admit his contract is an albatross on the team.

Yeah, first round pick or prospect I would do, I doubt it costs as high as Point or Erne though. We're likely to place as a top-5 team if guys are performing to their standards, a 26th-31st pick is worth it to move a 5.8m caphit for 3 more years.

I also don't think it would be a huge retention either, he's only overpaid by about ~1.5m if that's all we needed to retain to move Callahan I would definitely be on board. A team getting Callahan for 4.3m would be more than happy. As stated before, his buyout is just terribly structured that's not even an option at this point.

 

[Leonardo87]

Yeah, first round pick or prospect I would do, I doubt it costs as high as Point or Erne though. We're likely to place as a top-5 team if guys are performing to their standards, a 26th-31st pick is worth it to move a 5.8m caphit for 3 more years.

I also don't think it would be a huge retention either, he's only overpaid by about ~1.5m if that's all we needed to retain to move Callahan I would definitely be on board. A team getting Callahan for 4.3m would be more than happy. As stated before, his buyout is just terribly structured that's not even an option at this point.

Problem is Cally holds the cards for the next two years, where he can land. So even if a deal can be made, Cally does not have to approve of it. He wants to win so needs to be a contender, which means a team with a tight cap like Tampa. Also, a team will need to protect him in the expansion draft using one of their spots.

Best Scenario, let him play out his contract or most of it, and let him bounce back and try to earn that money with Tampa. I don't agree with you in regards to his playoff performance, but this is not the thread to get into details with that.

 

[tjs*]

Honestly our best move might be to spend a first to clear Filppula's entire cap hit and then buy out Callahan if he won't agree to a trade. We'd save $4.73M in 2017 and $2.93M the next two seasons (minus the cost of his replacement); in 2020 when Callahan's buyout will start costing us cap space rather than saving it Carle will be off the books. So buying out Callahan can work for us if we can move Filppula without retaining.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Honestly our best move might be to spend a first to clear Filppula's entire cap hit and then buy out Callahan if he won't agree to a trade. We'd save $4.73M in 2017 and $2.93M the next two seasons (minus the cost of his replacement); in 2020 when Callahan's buyout will start costing us cap space rather than saving it Carle will be off the books. So buying out Callahan can work for us if we can move Filppula without retaining.

Filppula will only have one year left on his contract after this season. I think we can send him to a team needing a veteran presence and needing to get to the floor. We might not need to attach a first to him to get rid of him.

Agree about Callahan though. In my armchair GM that is exactly what I did and it works. Let's face it he's not a top six player on our team. He's making almost 6 mil a year to play on our 3rd line. I would rather cut our losses and hold onto our more important players if it comes down to it.

 

[Leonardo87]

So who replaces Cally and Flip when they are both gone? If you say Paquette and Brown, you are getting hunted Liam Neeson style. lol.

New AHL'ers coming up won't be ready for at least another two years to take on a full time role.

At least with Cally still here, he can go up and down the line-up from Top 6 to Bottom 6 and is reliable on the 3rd line and it won't be Kermit the frog green like some of these proposed line-ups. You rather handicap this team for several million a year in dead cap, and fill his spot with an inexperienced AHL'er or 4th line bottom dweller. I mean you are going to put Vladdy with Paquette and/or Brown? Come on now.

 

[Tampacuseforever]

So who replaces Cally and Flip when they are both gone? If you say Paquette and Brown, you are getting hunted Liam Neeson style. lol.

New AHL'ers coming up won't be ready for at least another two years to take on a full time role.

At least with Cally still here, he can go up and down the line-up from Top 6 to Bottom 6 and is reliable on the 3rd line and it won't be Kermit the frog green like some of these proposed line-ups. You rather handicap this team for several million a year in dead cap, and fill his spot with an inexperienced AHL'er or 4th line bottom dweller. I mean you are going to put Vladdy with Paquette and/or Brown? Come on now.

FLip is replaced by Namestnikov that one is easy, but it would be difficult to replace what Callahan brings to the team. While Callahan recovers it will be interesting to see how Conacher does as I see him filling in for Callahan on that third line. If he can recover the magic with Cooper behind the bench you may just have something. I love Callahan as a player but not as a 5.8 million guy. It's not the player that is the problem it's that albatross of a contract.

 

[Leonardo87]

FLip is replaced by Namestnikov that one is easy, but it would be difficult to replace what Callahan brings to the team. While Callahan recovers it will be interesting to see how Conacher does as I see him filling in for Callahan on that third line. If he can recover the magic with Cooper behind the bench you may just have something. I love Callahan as a player but not as a 5.8 million guy. It's not the player that is the problem it's that albatross of a contract.

Well Vladdy can certainly replace the offense for Flip but still has to grow his two way and defensive style and being with Cally will be good for him with that. Yeah cally is overpaid but he will do what he can to play up to that contract but moving or buying him out is not the smart move and will come with a steep price if done before summer 2018. Others will go before him to re-sign the players needed to be re-signed.

 

[Tampacuseforever]

Well Vladdy can certainly replace the offense for Flip but still has to grow his two way and defensive style and being with Cally will be good for him with that. Yeah cally is overpaid but he will do what he can to play up to that contract but moving or buying him out is not the smart move and will come with a steep price if done before summer 2018. Others will go before him to re-sign the players needed to be re-signed.

I think your right but damn I wish he was playing for 4.5 per

 

[Leonardo87]

I think your right but damn I wish he was playing for 4.5 per

Me too because these coversations would not be happening, issue is he was making 4.5 million before, so a raise was due. If he gets close to 50 points then he is a 5 million dollar player again. Just have to hope for the best.

 

[tjs*]

Well Vladdy can certainly replace the offense for Flip but still has to grow his two way and defensive style and being with Cally will be good for him with that. Yeah cally is overpaid but he will do what he can to play up to that contract but moving or buying him out is not the smart move and will come with a steep price if done before summer 2018. Others will go before him to re-sign the players needed to be re-signed.

Other players will already be gone and it will still be a good idea to get rid of Callahan. Even with Filppula, Garrison, Boyle, and Condra moved we're still looking at losing a top six forward; buying out Cally could prevent that. I know you're in love with Callahan but even you can't honestly think he's worth losing Drouin, Johnson, Palat, or Killorn for.

 

[Leonardo87]

Other players will already be gone and it will still be a good idea to get rid of Callahan. Even with Filppula, Garrison, Boyle, and Condra moved we're still looking at losing a top six forward; buying out Cally could prevent that. I know you're in love with Callahan but even you can't honestly think he's worth losing Drouin, Johnson, Palat, or Killorn for.

A good idea? How much do you think Yzerman is going to pay these guys? There is plenty of cap to re-sign, with those contracts you mentioned gone. If they leave won't be because of Callahan will be because they are ****ing greedy and are pricing themselves out of town. Drouin has yet to play a full ****ing season and you want to throw over 6 million to him? Even if he has one strong season? A bridge deal would solve a lot of issues. If he wants more, then he can get the **** out.

This has nothing to do with me being a Cally fan it is just common sense. You want to add dead cap money to a cap that is already close to being maxed out, and replace a spot that is not easily replaced with an Entry level contract or bottom 4th liner?

 

[Steazy Doo]

A good idea? How much do you think Yzerman is going to pay these guys? There is plenty of cap to re-sign, with those contracts you mentioned gone. If they leave won't be because of Callahan will be because they are ****ing greedy and are pricing themselves out of town. Drouin has yet to play a full ****ing season and you want to throw over 6 million to him? Even if he has one strong season? A bridge deal would solve a lot of issues. If he wants more, then he can get the **** out.

This has nothing to do with me being a Cally fan it is just common sense. You want to add dead cap money to a cap that is already close to being maxed out, and replace a spot that is not easily replaced with an Entry level contract or bottom 4th liner?

 

[CupsOverCash]

A good idea? How much do you think Yzerman is going to pay these guys? There is plenty of cap to re-sign, with those contracts you mentioned gone. If they leave won't be because of Callahan will be because they are ****ing greedy and are pricing themselves out of town. Drouin has yet to play a full ****ing season and you want to throw over 6 million to him? Even if he has one strong season? A bridge deal would solve a lot of issues. If he wants more, then he can get the **** out.

This has nothing to do with me being a Cally fan it is just common sense. You want to add dead cap money to a cap that is already close to being maxed out, and replace a spot that is not easily replaced with an Entry level contract or bottom 4th liner?

There is not plenty of cap to re-sign. Even if Drouin takes 5 mil a year which is being generous if he does have a great season, it's still not going to be enough. Even if Palat and Johnson also take under 6 it's not going to be enough. Because we would have to replace players in our bottom six. Only way it will work is if we get rid of Callahans contract. If we get rid of Filppula and also most likely Garrison.

If SY really wants to keep Palat, Johnson and Drouin and they all have good seasons and still want to take some kind of a pay cut to keep everybody they are still going to have to get rid of some contracts. Including Callahan or it won't work. Then it comes down to do you want to keep Callahan or see one of those guys go? The answer to that question is easy for me. I know for you you would keep Callahan every time.

But I still have to ask you how do they keep all of those players and Callahan in this world of yours? Even if Drouin took 4 a year we would still have to do something. And I don't see how he will take less than that.

 

[Leonardo87]

There is not plenty of cap to re-sign. Even if Drouin takes 5 mil a year which is being generous if he does have a great season, it's still not going to be enough. Even if Palat and Johnson also take under 6 it's not going to be enough. Because we would have to replace players in our bottom six. Only way it will work is if we get rid of Callahans contract. If we get rid of Filppula and also most likely Garrison.

If SY really wants to keep Palat, Johnson and Drouin and they all have good seasons and still want to take some kind of a pay cut to keep everybody they are still going to have to get rid of some contracts. Including Callahan or it won't work. Then it comes down to do you want to keep Callahan or see one of those guys go? The answer to that question is easy for me. I know for you you would keep Callahan every time.

But I still have to ask you how do they keep all of those players and Callahan in this world of yours? Even if Drouin took 4 a year we would still have to do something. And I don't see how he will take less than that.

There will be around 17 million of cap available when Flip, Condra, Bishop, and Garrison are off the books, how is that not enough? It covers Hedman's raise and the 3 guys that need to be re-signed. Also will lose a contract at the expansion draft. So another 2 million maybe? Cap could easily go up another 2 million. So there are options still. You are talking about saving around 2 or 3 million in cap if Cally is bought out, that is nothing.

 

[Steazy Doo]

There will be around 17 million of cap available when Flip, Condra, Bishop, and Garrison are off the books, how is that not enough? It covers Hedman's raise and the 3 guys that need to be re-signed. Also will lose a contract at the expansion draft. So another 2 million maybe? Cap could easily go up another 2 million. So there are options still. You are talking about saving around 2 or 3 million in cap if Cally is bought out, that is nothing.

If that's the case then fine. That's awesome. IF we can sign all three of Drouin, Johnson and Palat while keeping Callahan, we'll do it.

BUT if not, which is a more then likely scenario, we HAVE to look at moving him. What is so wrong with this premise?

 

[CupsOverCash]

There will be around 17 million of cap available when Flip, Condra, Bishop, and Garrison are off the books, how is that not enough? It covers Hedman's raise and the 3 guys that need to be re-signed. Also will lose a contract at the expansion draft. So another 2 million maybe? Cap could easily go up another 2 million. So there are options still. You are talking about saving around 2 or 3 million in cap if Cally is bought out, that is nothing.

Your still not covering everybody. Say we sign all three of them at 5 mil. (Unlikely but would help). We still have to replace the guys that left and we have to re-sign Koekkoek as well. We still haven't re-signed Kucherov so we don't know what that's going to do. We have Sustr up for contract. Then we have a hole at Garrison leaving. We also don't know how much the cap will increase or if it will at all.

It all adds up man. I did it in arm chair. It's not easy to think this will work realistically unless we get rid of guys. Including Callahan.

But I am all for being able to keep him and the three guys up for contract. If SY does that he is a god.

 

[tjs*]

There will be around 17 million of cap available when Flip, Condra, Bishop, and Garrison are off the books, how is that not enough? It covers Hedman's raise and the 3 guys that need to be re-signed. Also will lose a contract at the expansion draft. So another 2 million maybe? Cap could easily go up another 2 million. So there are options still. You are talking about saving around 2 or 3 million in cap if Cally is bought out, that is nothing.

All of those players coming off the books will need to be replaced; those replacements take up cap space which far too many people here don't think to account for. In addition we have raises for Hedman, Vasy, Koekkoek, and potentially Sustr, as well as however much Kucherov and our last defenseman (whether it's Nesterov or somebody else) put us over the current cap level (the move to free up that space will have to be made this year but it obviously cuts into the amount of clearable space we're counting on to resign everybody next season.) And that's not even getting into the possibility of bonus overages if Drouin has a great season.

Drouin, Johnson, and Palat will likely cost around $17-18M or so to resign. If you would actually #DoTheMath you'd see that even with all those players you mentioned being moved we still can't afford to keep our entire top six without getting rid of Callahan. Cally's buyout saves us close to $5M in 2017 (minus the cost of his replacement); that goes down to almost $3M the next two years but a $2M cap increase in 2018 would balance that out. So buying out Callahan and replacing him with even a $1.5M third liner would still give us over $3M in effective extra cap space with which to keep our core intact. That is not, as you claimed, "nothing".

 

[Leonardo87]

Your still not covering everybody. Say we sign all three of them at 5 mil. (Unlikely but would help). We still have to replace the guys that left and we have to re-sign Koekkoek as well. We still haven't re-signed Kucherov so we don't know what that's going to do. We have Sustr up for contract. Then we have a hole at Garrison leaving. We also don't know how much the cap will increase or if it will at all.

It all adds up man. I did it in arm chair. It's not easy to think this will work realistically unless we get rid of guys. Including Callahan.

But I am all for being able to keep him and the three guys up for contract. If SY does that he is a god.

Can always look to move the Coburn contract. Also will lose a contract at expansion draft so there is about 5 million right there combined (3.7 + 1.5+) It all adds up, if Kucherov takes 6 million not 6.5, Drouin a 4 million bridge deal and not 5 or 6 million, it is enough to squeeze by till raises are due in 4 years from now.

 

[Leonardo87]

All of those players coming off the books will need to be replaced; those replacements take up cap space which far too many people here don't think to account for. In addition we have raises for Hedman, Vasy, Koekkoek, and potentially Sustr, as well as however much Kucherov and our last defenseman (whether it's Nesterov or somebody else) put us over the current cap level (the move to free up that space will have to be made this year but it obviously cuts into the amount of clearable space we're counting on to resign everybody next season.) And that's not even getting into the possibility of bonus overages if Drouin has a great season.

Drouin, Johnson, and Palat will likely cost around $17-18M or so to resign. If you would actually #DoTheMath you'd see that even with all those players you mentioned being moved we still can't afford to keep our entire top six without getting rid of Callahan. Cally's buyout saves us close to $5M in 2017 (minus the cost of his replacement); that goes down to almost $3M the next two years but a $2M cap increase in 2018 would balance that out. So buying out Callahan and replacing him with even a $1.5M third liner would still give us over $3M in effective extra cap space with which to keep our core intact. That is not, as you claimed, "nothing".

It will get done without moving Callahan, I pray for Yzerman's sake. Believe he can do it.