Speculation: Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson next contracts

[TampaJay]

I read an article that proposed that the rule of thumb for contracts this year for forwards was $100, 000 per point.
So…
2015/16
Johnson: 38 point = $3.8 mil
Palat: 40 points = $4.0 mil
2014/15
Johnson: 72 points = $7.2 mil
Palat: 63 points = $6.3 mil

Based on that rule of thumb the difference between those two seasons is enormous for cap implications.

So, try to sign them early based on a bad year or wait and see if a year ago wasn’t a fluke?

Who agrees with the rule of thumb?

 

[tjs*]

I read an article that proposed that the rule of thumb for contracts this year for forwards was $100, 000 per point.
So…
2015/16
Johnson: 38 point = $3.8 mil
Palat: 40 points = $4.0 mil
2014/15
Johnson: 72 points = $7.2 mil
Palat: 63 points = $6.3 mil

Based on that rule of thumb the difference between those two seasons is enormous for cap implications.

So, try to sign them early based on a bad year or wait and see if a year ago wasn’t a fluke?

Who agrees with the rule of thumb?

I'd sign them early if I could; the problem is they wouldn't want to do so precisely because they'd want the opportunity to prove that last year was a fluke.

 

[TampaJay]

I'd sign them early if I could; the problem is they wouldn't want to do so precisely because they'd want the opportunity to prove that last year was a fluke.

Agreed, bottom line is we will not be able to assess their value until after next season. I would put Drouin in the same boat as Johnson and Palat. If they go back to the form they had a year ago and Drouin has a breakout season, then one of them will be unaffordable. But that is not necessarily a bad thing because then the trade value for any one of them will be huge.

 

[tjs*]

Agreed, bottom line is we will not be able to assess their value until after next season. I would put Drouin in the same boat as Johnson and Palat. If they go back to the form they had a year ago and Drouin has a breakout season, then one of them will be unaffordable. But that is not necessarily a bad thing because then the trade value for any one of them will be huge.

True, but what is bad is that we would have been able to afford them all had we not resigned Stamkos. Saying that is pretty much crying over spilled milk given that the Stamkos resigning is now an unchangeable reality, but I simply don't see him living up to that contract or being worth losing a Triplet or Drouin for. This only works out in our favor if Drouin and Stamkos form a pair for the ages, Stamkos finally shows up in the playoffs, Johnson is traded for a stud offensive RHD, and Namestnikov or Point can replace TJ at 2C without too much dropoff in production. That's a lot of 'if's.

 

[Todd1a]

True, but what is bad is that we would have been able to afford them all had we not resigned Stamkos. Saying that is pretty much crying over spilled milk given that the Stamkos resigning is now an unchangeable reality, but I simply don't see him living up to that contract or being worth losing a Triplet or Drouin for. This only works out in our favor if Drouin and Stamkos form a pair for the ages, Stamkos finally shows up in the playoffs, Johnson is traded for a stud offensive RHD, and Namestnikov or Point can replace TJ at 2C without too much dropoff in production. That's a lot of 'if's.

I agree Marty St. Louis is pretty much what drouin needs to become for stamkos to live up to his deal. If you had to lose a triplet would it be Johnson ? Over palat or Kucherov?

 

[Sky04]

True, but what is bad is that we would have been able to afford them all had we not resigned Stamkos. Saying that is pretty much crying over spilled milk given that the Stamkos resigning is now an unchangeable reality, but I simply don't see him living up to that contract or being worth losing a Triplet or Drouin for. This only works out in our favor if Drouin and Stamkos form a pair for the ages, Stamkos finally shows up in the playoffs, Johnson is traded for a stud offensive RHD, and Namestnikov or Point can replace TJ at 2C without too much dropoff in production. That's a lot of 'if's.

You can still afford them all w/ Stamkos.. and besides Stamkos is a better playoff performer then Palat, and that's saying something..

 

[Todd1a]

You can still afford them all w/ Stamkos.. and besides Stamkos is a better playoff performer then Palat, and that's saying something..

I notice that palat is not even a better playoff performer then killorn

 

[tjs*]

I agree Marty St. Louis is pretty much what drouin needs to become for stamkos to live up to his deal. If you had to lose a triplet would it be Johnson ? Over palat or Kucherov?

A lot will depend on how they do next season, but at the moment I think it would be. Kucherov is our best forward at the moment so we definitely don't want to lose him, and while I'd hate to lose either Palat or Johnson I think if we move TJ for a young puckmoving RHD and replace him with Namestnikov or Point that we would ultimately be better off than if we lose Palat. Their postseason scoring is the only reason I'm not entirely certain I'd go that way - Johnson has been huge (albeit streaky) in the playoffs while Palat doesn't seem to have that extra gear that Killorn has in those big games. But otherwise I think Palat's synergistic effect on everybody he plays with and his complete two-way skill set is simply more difficult for us to replace than finding somebody who can play effectively with Kucherov would be (Vladdy already has good chemistry with him and Point seems like he would as well.) That plus the greater return we'd get from moving Johnson and the opportunity to thereby improve our defense (which will be suffering from the loss of Garrison and which we already know has difficulty moving the puck up-ice without Bishop to make the outlet pass) makes that seem like the way to go for me.

 

[tjs*]

I notice that palat is not even a better playoff performer then killorn

Yeah, Drej's postseason scoring is the only thing that gives me pause with him. You'd like to see more out of him in those big games. He still contributes in other areas and he's a better passer than Killorn, but Killer is the better finisher.

I don't have data to back this up but just going by memory it seems like most of Palat's postseason scoring tends to come on odd man rushes where he's either setting somebody up or vice versa (he had a couple nice connections with Drouin in the playoffs) whereas Killorn seems to be a little better at getting his own shot off.

 

[Hoek]

I think the "Palat is underrated" train has gone so far that he might be in overrated territory now.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Palat, like Johnson, had a decline in production last year. They stepped it up in the playoffs. Killorn did the same. Nothing wrong with that. I think they both have numbers closer to the previous season. If that top six stays healthy it will be one of the best in the league. I'm wondering if they really were injured last year or they were taking the foot off the gas and saving it for the playoffs. I'm sure it was a little of both.

 

[tjs*]

Palat, like Johnson, had a decline in production last year. They stepped it up in the playoffs. Killorn did the same. Nothing wrong with that. I think they both have numbers closer to the previous season. If that top six stays healthy it will be one of the best in the league. I'm wondering if they really were injured last year or they were taking the foot off the gas and saving it for the playoffs. I'm sure it was a little of both.

I'm pretty sure they were really injured. Palat missed 20 games and Johnson was recovering from a broken wrist. Some of the other guys were probably on a post-playoff hangover but those two I think were legitimately hurt.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I'm pretty sure they were really injured. Palat missed 20 games and Johnson was recovering from a broken wrist. Some of the other guys were probably on a post-playoff hangover but those two I think were legitimately hurt.

I think they will return to 13-14 stats. Especially if our top six stays healthy. I think it will look like this:

Palat Stamkos Drouin
Killorn Johnson Kucherov

Palat and Killorn will probably switch things up once in a while. I'm hoping we see a line of Drouin Stamkos Kucherov sometimes but I'm not sure if Coop would do that.

Also curious to see what our PP lines consist of. Need to improve that area this year.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

You have to figure that Schenn's contract will help the value of Palat's. Would be happy with something similar.

 

[tjs*]

You have to figure that Schenn's contract will help the value of Palat's. Would be happy with something similar.

It certainly won't hurt it. Schenn scores a few more goals but aside from his injury-plagued last season Palat puts up a lot more points; it's tough to say how that works out dollar-wise. If we can sign Palat for something in the low $5M range we'll be in good shape as far as he is concerned.

 

[Todd1a]

I think they will return to 13-14 stats. Especially if our top six stays healthy. I think it will look like this:

Palat Stamkos Drouin
Killorn Johnson Kucherov

Palat and Killorn will probably switch things up once in a while. I'm hoping we see a line of Drouin Stamkos Kucherov sometimes but I'm not sure if Coop would do that.

Also curious to see what our PP lines consist of. Need to improve that area this year.

I'm hoping cooper will glue stamkos and drouin together ! Go bolts

 

[Houdas]

Palát told czech media he'd love to get a 7 year contract. he doesn't expect big money but doesn't want to be undervalued.

 

[The Gongshow]

Palát told czech media he'd love to get a 7 year contract. he doesn't expect big money but doesn't want to be undervalued.

Good guy Palat

 

[CupsOverCash]

Would be awesome if both TJ and Palat both signed for 7 year 5 mil av. But that is probably wishful thinking.

 

[MattM92]

Would be awesome if both TJ and Palat both signed for 7 year 5 mil av. But that is probably wishful thinking.

I would love that deal. Although that would be a big investment in the current core. Say this group gets 2 more shots at the Cup and come up short both times. Then we have Stamkos, Hedman, Killorn, Palat, Johnson and possibly Kucherov all signed for 5-6 more years. It would be hard to transition to a new core if that were to happen.

 

[Leonardo87]

Palát told czech media he'd love to get a 7 year contract. he doesn't expect big money but doesn't want to be undervalued.

Good for Pally, when cally retires he will be my new favorite player to watch. Which means Tampa will likely trade him then , ****!

 

[CupsOverCash]

I would love that deal. Although that would be a big investment in the current core. Say this group gets 2 more shots at the Cup and come up short both times. Then we have Stamkos, Hedman, Killorn, Palat, Johnson and possibly Kucherov all signed for 5-6 more years. It would be hard to transition to a new core if that were to happen.

Could have worse.

 

[MattM92]

Could have worse.

Of course. Just pointing out that what Yzerman is doing is definitely a sign of faith in the core.

 

[Todd1a]

Palát told czech media he'd love to get a 7 year contract. he doesn't expect big money but doesn't want to be undervalued.

Palat will hold out in signing till next summer new port sports is his agents ugh so I see Johnson getting a 7 year deaL done first to put pressure on palat and newport sports.

 

[tjs*]

Johnson is the one guy I'm not sure we want to give a 7-year deal to. Not unless he gets through next season and postseason without any significant injury issues. I'm just worried about his durability long term.