Speculation: Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson next contracts

[PaulGG]

Hard to make a prediction now for these guys. It really depends on how they play this year, as this is their money year. They may not end up being equal as they are now or one may not even be here. Too many variables. For example, if we win the cup everyone's value goes up. Or, if Drouin really breaks out and surpasses Palat and Johnson then we may need to pay him.

 

[Todd1a]

Johnson is the one guy I'm not sure we want to give a 7-year deal to. Not unless he gets through next season and postseason without any significant injury issues. I'm just worried about his durability long term.

Ya but Johnson is another playoff performer! Takes his game to another level come playoffs. I have no issue giving Johnson a 7 year deal. Palat I'm iffy on ? Killorn out performs palat in the playoffs. Plus to me vladdy has not shown enough to be our number two center yet to replace Johnson.

 

[tjs*]

Ya but Johnson is another playoff performer! Takes his game to another level come playoffs. I have no issue giving Johnson a 7 year deal. Palat I'm iffy on ? Killorn out performs palat in the playoffs. Plus to me vladdy has not shown enough to be our number two center yet to replace Johnson.

I'm not saying we don't keep Johnson - I'm just saying that seven years with his injury history is a major risk. If he's willing to sign cheaply to get those seven years then that's one thing, but if he's expecting full or close to full value on his AAV then IMO we can't risk giving him that sort of term.

 

[Todd1a]

I'm not saying we don't keep Johnson - I'm just saying that seven years with his injury history is a major risk. If he's willing to sign cheaply to get those seven years then that's one thing, but if he's expecting full or close to full value on his AAV then IMO we can't risk giving him that sort of term.

Well I expect is next avv to be in the 5.5 to 6 range. That's a great deal for a Tyler Johnson knowing cooper he wants palat and Johnson as core. I don't think those two will break us to bad. Can see both doing 5.5 for 7 years.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

You re-sign Johnson to keep him as Kucherov's permanent center. I personally believe Cooper sees them as almost inseparable and the numbers tend to prove him right. Kucherov has been good but not great without his favorite center, TyJo was quite average without Kucherov but both together are damn impressive. Palat is not as dependent as the others 2 to be effective but it's also true he's got to find that extra playoffs gear he had against the Habs 2 years ago...
Paradoxically being more adaptable than Johnson and to a lesser extend Kucherov (despite a lower ceiling offense wise nonetheless) could make Palat more expendable.


We have Killorn who could replace him or we'll trade Killer instead. Killer's a clear cut below in the regular season but he's a short, still noticeable cut above the Czech in the playoffs. All I'm saying I don't see Yzerman keeping both Killer and Palat on the team, too much redundancy for a cap crunched team. Love me some Drej, big time, but love me some Robert Horry type of playoffs performers too. Deciding between Killer and Drej is, at least to me, a tougher decision to take than it first looked.

 

[Todd1a]

You re-sign Johnson to keep him as Kucherov's permanent center. I personally believe Cooper sees them as almost inseparable and the numbers tend to prove him right. Kucherov has been good but not great without his favorite center, TyJo was quite average without Kucherov but both together are damn impressive. Palat is not as dependent as the others 2 to be effective but it's also true he's got to find that extra playoffs gear he had against the Habs 2 years ago...
Paradoxically being more adaptable than Johnson and to a lesser extend Kucherov (despite a lower ceiling offense wise nonetheless) could make Palat more expendable.


We have Killorn who could replace him or we'll trade Killer instead. Killer's a clear cut below in the regular season but he's a short, still noticeable cut above the Czech in the playoffs. All I'm saying I don't see Yzerman keeping both Killer and Palat on the team, too much redundancy for a cap crunched team. Love me some Drej, big time, but love me some Robert Horry type of playoffs performers too. Deciding between Killer and Drej is, at least to me, a tougher decision to take than it first looked.

Yep and kucherov and Johnson have been money in the playoffs

 

[tjs*]

Well I expect is next avv to be in the 5.5 to 6 range. That's a great deal for a Tyler Johnson knowing cooper he wants palat and Johnson as core. I don't think those two will break us to bad. Can see both doing 5.5 for 7 years.

It's a great deal if he stays healthy and continues to perform at a high level. The problem is he's had some difficulty with injuries and to make matters worse he's not a player who plays particularly well when he's hurt. Couple that with his small size and the fact that he'll be 27 by the first season under his next deal and you have a recipe for potential disaster if you give him a contract that is both large in AAV and long in term. If he wants a seven-year contract I'd want him on the low side of the $5M range; otherwise I'd wouldn't offer him anything more than four or five.

 

[CupsOverCash]

If we are able to get rid of Filppula and Garrisons contracts that's around 11 mil right there. Bishop will be gone. Another 6 gone. That's 17 mil. Then you have Boyle becoming a UFA so that's another 2. Leaving us at 19 mil. However then you have to think that we also have the 6 + mil that are already being used for Palat, Johnson and Drouins contracts right now. That's roughly 25 + mil to get those three re-signed. The key is can we ship off Filppula and Garrison? They both would only have 1 year left on their contracts. I think they are moveable. Garrison more so but I can see a team needing a veteran like Filppula who can still play well. It's only one year. Maybe we attach a solid pick to move him at worst. I don't think it's unrealistic to think this. I think SY can pull this off.

 

[CupsOverCash]

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/176177

Just realized now that we still need a couple more pieces added to that roster. Ok so let's say that the world is almost perfect and that we are able to trade Callahan. Bad news is we have to retain 2.5 mil on it. But that still gives us almost 3 mil to round out the rest of our roster. Bring back Conacher and then add Brayden Point up there to be a rotational guy and then have another dman who can be our 7th D who we like to have so much. Possibly Nesterov.

 

[tjs*]

If we are able to get rid of Filppula and Garrisons contracts that's around 11 mil right there. Bishop will be gone. Another 6 gone. That's 17 mil. Then you have Boyle becoming a UFA so that's another 2. Leaving us at 19 mil. However then you have to think that we also have the 6 + mil that are already being used for Palat, Johnson and Drouins contracts right now. That's roughly 25 + mil to get those three re-signed. The key is can we ship off Filppula and Garrison? They both would only have 1 year left on their contracts. I think they are moveable. Garrison more so but I can see a team needing a veteran like Filppula who can still play well. It's only one year. Maybe we attach a solid pick to move him at worst. I don't think it's unrealistic to think this. I think SY can pull this off.

The big thing you're forgetting is that all those players whose contracts we clear need to be replaced on the roster. So it's not ~$25M for three players, but seven (Palat, Johnson, Drouin; replacements for Filppula, Garrison, and Boyle; and a backup goalie.) Plus we still have Kucherov's new contract and one more defenseman (whether Nesterov or his replacement) that need to be accounted for and which will eat at least somewhat into this amount, as well as any nominal raises that are needed. And we'll need at least some breathing room under the cap for injury replacements.

 

[CupsOverCash]

The big thing you're forgetting is that all those players whose contracts we clear need to be replaced on the roster. So it's not ~$25M for three players, but seven (Palat, Johnson, Drouin; replacements for Filppula, Garrison, and Boyle; and a backup goalie.) Plus we still have Kucherov's new contract and one more defenseman (whether Nesterov or his replacement) that need to be accounted for and which will eat at least somewhat into this amount, as well as any nominal raises that are needed. And we'll need at least some breathing room under the cap for injury replacements.

It's more like replacements for bottom six, which should come from within.

Killorn Stamkos Drouin
Palat Johnson Kucherov
Conacher Namestnikov Brown
Erne Point Paquette

Hedman Stralman
Kookoek Coburn
Sustr Nesterov
Masin

Vasilevski
Gudlevskis

Roster is a little green but I think it's competitive. At least good enough to make playoffs and we know when you make it anything can happen.

Numbers work out if guys take a little bit of a discount, cap goes up a little bit (2 mil) and obviously if we are able to trade some guys away but it's not far from realistic. Maybe I am dreaming a bit.

 

[tjs*]

It's more like replacements for bottom six, which should come from within.

Killorn Stamkos Drouin
Palat Johnson Kucherov
Conacher Namestnikov Brown
Erne Point Paquette

Hedman Stralman
Kookoek Coburn
Sustr Nesterov
Masin

Vasilevski
Gudlevskis

Roster is a little green but I think it's competitive. At least good enough to make playoffs and we know when you make it anything can happen.

Numbers work out if guys take a little bit of a discount, cap goes up a little bit (2 mil) and obviously if we are able to trade some guys away but it's not far from realistic. Maybe I am dreaming a bit.

Some or possibly all of those replacements will indeed come from within, but they still take up cap space. Combine that with whatever overage Kucherov and Nesterov/replacement produce, any bonus overage that might eat into next year's cap space, the necessity of having at least some breathing room under the cap for injury replacements, and the likelihood that we will have to buy out or at least retain some salary on Filppula and things get very tight indeed. I'm not saying it's impossible to keep all our top forwards, but I don't think it's likely. It all starts with Kucherov and if he were willing to leave some money on the table he would have been signed by now.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Some or possibly all of those replacements will indeed come from within, but they still take up cap space. Combine that with whatever overage Kucherov and Nesterov/replacement produce, any bonus overage that might eat into next year's cap space, the necessity of having at least some breathing room under the cap for injury replacements, and the likelihood that we will have to buy out or at least retain some salary on Filppula and things get very tight indeed. I'm not saying it's impossible to keep all our top forwards, but I don't think it's likely. It all starts with Kucherov and if he were willing to leave some money on the table he would have been signed by now.

Look what I did with the arm chair GM. Still had a little under 2 mil left in cap space. If injuries happen and they do we get someone from Syracuse. At least we have our top six back and signed long term. But yes it does depend on someone willing to take on Filppula contract but it's 1 year. Think about a cap floor team and give them a pick to go with it. Filppula is still a good player and has value as a veteran. Also have to think possible someone gets taken in the exhibition draft. All I'm saying is there is a chance we can keep them. Yes things need to happen but it's not impossible.

 

[tjs*]

Look what I did with the arm chair GM. Still had a little under 2 mil left in cap space. If injuries happen and they do we get someone from Syracuse. At least we have our top six back and signed long term. But yes it does depend on someone willing to take on Filppula contract but it's 1 year. Think about a cap floor team and give them a pick to go with it. Filppula is still a good player and has value as a veteran. Also have to think possible someone gets taken in the exhibition draft. All I'm saying is there is a chance we can keep them. Yes things need to happen but it's not impossible.

Your plan would indeed work, but it hinges on a LOT of big 'if's. Moving Filppula without retention, moving Callahan at all, Drouin signing for only $5M...even Johnson for $5.5M might be a bit of a stretch unless he struggles with injuries again. All of those things are various degrees of unlikely, and the odds of them all working out in our favor are fairly low. You're right that it's not impossible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

 

[TampaJay]

I’m the guy that recommended using the CapFriendly Arm Chair GM tool and was derided a bit for stressing the need to “do the math” to be realistic. Glad to see you posting your Arm Chair GM because it is a really useful tool. I agree, Cups, it is not impossible to re-sign who we want if Garrison, Fippula, and Callahan are moved. And I think that may be possible without retaining too much if we give up some picks and prospects. The prospect pool looks pretty good so that is not unwise.

But I have a bigger question. Even if we COULD keep them, SHOULD we? Is it smart cap management to have 6 forwards, Stamkos, Kucherov, Johnson, Palat, Drouin, and Killorn all on long term (6-8Years) contracts with healthy cap hits?

Isn’t that too big of a core?

Does it hurt the ability to retain depth in the bottom six?

Is it spending too much % wise on forwards and not leaving enough for D and goalies?

Even if we could keep them all, I just think the core of forwards should be kept to 4 or maybe 5.

Also, I agree with tjs, KK and Drouin’s performance bonus potential next year is 2.9 mil. Who knows if they will hit the numbers but that could seriously impact the math as it did this year with Panarin in Chicago.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Well all I know is I'm happy that SY makes the decisions and not me. We have 3 excellent players up for a new contract next year and a lot of decisions will have to be made.

As for your question about whether or not it's a good idea to have that big of a core, I say yes but what do I know. I look at Chicago and say they got their cups with an outstanding top 6 and depth scoring in their bottom six which I believe our prospects can provide when they come. Also they got it done with a top 3 D that was pretty damn good and not much outside of that and a goalie that had to come up with big saves when needed to. Not saying Crawford was or is a bad goalie. He's actually a good goalie but more so saying he is clutch. Which I think Vasi can be.

Either way I think this team will be a winner for a while. What happens next off season won't be huge to the big picture because we will still be very good team. Just possible we will have to lose a really good player and that happens to every good team in a cap world. Hell even happened to us back in the day after we won the cup.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Moving Callahan is a mega big 'if" honestly.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Moving Callahan is a mega big 'if" honestly.

So I looked up what the cost would be if we bought him out. It would be more cap room than the trade I made. Maybe they just buy him out next year.

 

[Leonardo87]

Your plan would indeed work, but it hinges on a LOT of big 'if's. Moving Filppula without retention, moving Callahan at all, Drouin signing for only $5M...even Johnson for $5.5M might be a bit of a stretch unless he struggles with injuries again. All of those things are various degrees of unlikely, and the odds of them all working out in our favor are fairly low. You're right that it's not impossible, but I wouldn't put money on it.

CupsoverCash has actually posted the closest thing to reality, let me explain....

Cally ain't moving without some kind of serious cap handicap to this team. But why move him, with what he still can bring. It's not like Carle and being healthy scratched and playing less than 10 mins. You have to replace his mins and role. Guys like Brown and Paquette have failed to do that. Even if he is destined to be one the 3rd line moving forward, is that a bad thing? The 3rd line has wet the bed numerous times when he was not on it. Next to Palat he is our best defensive forward and PK'er. I also grow tired of people now bashing Palat over his playoff production, people don't get it, it is not just about ****ing points, you have two nets. But that is a discussion for another day. Yzerman knew what he was getting when he signed Callahan, and he has delivered to those expectations, even if a few people here disagree.

Flip will be gone because of Vladdy's potential moving up, and you lock him next to Cally, you know his Two way game will get much better which is severly needed. Brown and Paquette have played better when with Cally, but there is no offense there because Paquette and Brown are not goal scorers or playmakers. Vladdy is actually Cally's best chance to get his offensive game back while not being in the top 6. Of course I am sure he will get the gig with Stamkos at some point in the regular season. Cally has several 20 goal seasons under his belt so he can score goals.....when he is not injured that is.

There is enough cap, and other contracts to move to re-sign everyone without touching #24. It's setting up to give the next round of raises when Cally's contract falls off. Drouin will likely get a bridge deal for 3 years, don't know why Yzerman would give him a 6 and 6 type deal even if he has a great season, it is only one full season.

Yeah as soon as the move Cally posts start up again, here I am, back to my Callafan white knight posts. Yzerman will give him the next two seasons to get back on track. After that cannot blame him for moving him if he has not gotten back to at least close to his career point production. Moving him after 2018 won't have as huge of a handicap as it will now or next year.

 

[CupsOverCash]

CupsoverCash has actually posted the closest thing to reality, let me explain....

Cally ain't moving without some kind of serious cap handicap to this team. But why move him, with what he still can bring. It's not like Carle and being healthy scratched and playing less than 10 mins. You have to replace his mins and role. Guys like Brown and Paquette have failed to do that. Even if he is destined to be one the 3rd line moving forward, is that a bad thing? The 3rd line has wet the bed numerous times when he was not on it. Next to Palat he is our best defensive forward and PK'er. I also grow tired of people now bashing Palat over his playoff production, people don't get it, it is not just about ****ing points, you have two nets. But that is a discussion for another day. Yzerman knew what he was getting when he signed Callahan, and he has delivered to those expectations, even if a few people here disagree.

Flip will be gone because of Vladdy's potential moving up, and you lock him next to Cally, you know his Two way game will get much better which is severly needed. Brown and Paquette have played better when with Cally, but there is no offense there because Paquette and Brown are not goal scorers or playmakers. Vladdy is actually Cally's best chance to get his offensive game back while not being in the top 6. Of course I am sure he will get the gig with Stamkos at some point in the regular season. Cally has several 20 goal seasons under his belt so he can score goals.....when he is not injured that is.

There is enough cap, and other contracts to move to re-sign everyone without touching #24. It's setting up to give the next round of raises when Cally's contract falls off. Drouin will likely get a bridge deal for 3 years, don't know why Yzerman would give him a 6 and 6 type deal even if he has a great season, it is only one full season.

Yeah as soon as the move Cally posts start up again, here I am, back to my Callafan white knight posts. Yzerman will give him the next two seasons to get back on track. After that cannot blame him for moving him if he has not gotten at least close to his career point production. Moving him after 2018 won't have as huge of a handicap as it will now or next year.

Nobody hates Callahan. Just hate his contract. We have other players who we would rather have that money.

 

[TampaJay]

Well all I know is I'm happy that SY makes the decisions and not me. We have 3 excellent players up for a new contract next year and a lot of decisions will have to be made.

As for your question about whether or not it's a good idea to have that big of a core, I say yes but what do I know. I look at Chicago and say they got their cups with an outstanding top 6 and depth scoring in their bottom six which I believe our prospects can provide when they come. Also they got it done with a top 3 D that was pretty damn good and not much outside of that and a goalie that had to come up with big saves when needed to. Not saying Crawford was or is a bad goalie. He's actually a good goalie but more so saying he is clutch. Which I think Vasi can be.

Either way I think this team will be a winner for a while. What happens next off season won't be huge to the big picture because we will still be very good team. Just possible we will have to lose a really good player and that happens to every good team in a cap world. Hell even happened to us back in the day after we won the cup.

As the “do the math†guy I was assumed to be pessimistic. I’m not. I’m totally optimistic. The best hire SY ever made was Al Murray. Just look at the drafts prior to 2011 and post. It is amazing. And SY’s trades: Conacher for Bishop, somehow he turned Steve Downie into Vasi. Incredible. The UFAs: Stralman and Boyle. The undrafted: Johnson, Sustr, Brown. How can you not be confident in the future? Yes, I believe realistically we are going to lose one of Killorn, Palat, Johnson, (In addition to Bishop) before 2017-18, but it is not the end of the world. One of them could be turned into a RHD that could actually make us better. I watched the WJC development and there were 6 Lightning prospects on team Canada. The future is bright. I agree, when I use the Arm Chair GM tool like you, all I can say is I’m glad we have SY because there are some tough decisions coming and I’m glad we have him.

 

[Leonardo87]

Nobody hates Callahan. Just hate his contract. We have other players who we would rather have that money.

Moving Cally now or next year will hurt this team more than help. In both the roster and cap. That is my point. If Yzerman makes a deal with the Rangers or Buffalo to retain salary then maybe something can happen but still will have a cap hit. Plus, a buy out will cap hit this team till 2024, with close to a 3 million cap hit in his final two years. Already close to 2 million there from the Carle buyout.

As per the trade idea, Those are the only two teams he will waive for, but then they have to protect him and will lose one of their forwards protection spots in expansion. So there is a lot going on and a simple trade is not in the cards.

Just let the dude play, and earn his money here in Tampa.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Moving Cally now or next year will hurt this team more than help. In both the roster and cap. That is my point. If Yzerman makes a deal with the Rangers or Buffalo to retain salary then maybe something can happen but still will have a cap hit. Plus, a buy out will cap hit this team till 2024, with close to a 3 million cap hit in his final two years. Already close to 2 million there from the Carle buyout.

As per the trade idea, Those are the only two teams he will waive for, but then they have to protect him and will lose one of their forwards protection spots in expansion. So there is a lot going on and a simple trade is not in the cards.

Just let the dude play, and earn his money here in Tampa.

It's not about whether or not there is a price to trade him or to buy him out because there is a price. A hefty one. The question is can you keep a core player if we trade him or buy him out? From my work on arm chair GM it says we can. The question then becomes does SY do this to keep one of the three outstanding players who are up for a contract next year. You say there are other ways. What can SY do to keep him and the three guys who are up for contract next year?

 

[Leonardo87]

It's not about whether or not there is a price to trade him or to buy him out because there is a price. A hefty one. The question is can you keep a core player if we trade him or buy him out? From my work on arm chair GM it says we can. The question then becomes does SY do this to keep one of the three outstanding players who are up for a contract next year. You say there are other ways. What can SY do to keep him and the three guys who are up for contract next year?

I just noticed you changed your post in regards to armchair. There are only two natural RW on that roster, and that bottom 6 will be eaten for breakfast.

Also the buy out goes to 3 million in his last two years, already have Carle's buy out costing close to 2 million in those years, So is handcuffing 5 million in dead cap for two seasons really the way to go? You also forget the expansion draft, could easily lose a 2 million contract there, and if the cap does not go up, can always move Coburn as well. That his nearly 6 million there to keep Cally on board while re-signing those 3 guys.

 

[Volodya Krutov]

Why are we discussing Callahan at length again ffs ?