Olli Juolevi vs. Timothy Liljegren

[Killer Orcas]

Lilly used to have a patented 1 turnover per game that would end up in our net because he would server it up on a platter right in the slot to the other team. He no longer does that. EVER.

Lilly's game is extremely sound defensively. He's elite for AHL standards. He has an amazing first pass and his zone exits are flawless. Offensively he can make amazing stretch passes, but he doesn't jump into the rush anywhere near as much as he used to and therefore he's rarely caught out of position. He never makes stupid pinches either. I honestly think HF is going to massively surprised just how good of a player this kid has become when he comes up to the Leafs (at some point this year, potentially may break camp with the Leafs). He's not going to wow you with big offensive numbers but this guy is legitimately in the mold of Stralman. Should end up as a reliable top 2-4 Dman with above average defense, good skating, great passing and probably 20-25 points a year. Its no where near his 40-50 point potential PP QB draft hype but he is an asset to his team right now.

Sounds like he's better then I expected but in a different way. Thank you for the in depth report I look forward to seeing him up one day soon.

 

[nobody]

Sounds like he's better then I expected but in a different way. Thank you for the in depth report I look forward to seeing him up one day soon.

No problem! Some of us are stoked with his development because we've accepted what he is as a player. The ones that are constantly harping on him are the fans who are still expecting some major offensive dynamo. You can't just look at his point totals and talk about him struggling to produce when he isn't really trying to produce. lol

Not so long ago, many of us talked about Morgan Rielly and how he had so much offensive skills and ability but our coaching staff was purposely stiffling him because they wanted him to be a defense first d-man. I once compared him to Duncan Keith offensively and was laughed off because fans never saw him ever sniff Keith's career high points of 69 because Rielly couldn't even hit 35 at the time. Not all Leafs fans are insane. There are a few of us that watch the team objectively and don't have insane expectations. Lilly has that Rielly potential in his game. But unlike Rielly I don't ever expect him to put up a 60-70 point season because I don't think he will ever be put in that role. If he somehow blossoms into a full fledged #1 dman and opens up his offensive game again (and works on his shot big time) he can be that offensive dynamo someday. But as I said before, I just don't see the opportunity there for him and the chances of him ever posting 50+ points are slim to none.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I suppose you can make that technically true by defining it in a certain way, but in that case he was also the only one. Samorukov had a slightly higher PPG but played only five games, and David Noël played one game without recording a point. Other 18-year-olds there weren't.

I meant of the six 18 year olds who played in the AHL up to that point (2018), going back to the 95 lockout, Liljegren has the highest PPG among them during his 18 year old season in 2017-18. So it was a good season for him all things considered.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I have far more confidence in the Leafs farm system to churn out quality players.

 

[Albatros]

I meant of the six 18 year olds who played in the AHL up to that point (2018), going back to the 95 lockout, Liljegren has the highest PPG among them during his 18 year old season in 2017-18. So it was a good season for him all things considered.

With that definition yes, though minimum 14 games between 1995 and 2018 would be a bit arbitrary cutoff. Either way Sandin would probably be the most natural comparable as he played the same amount of games for the same team just one season after.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

With that definition yes, though minimum 14 games between 1995 and 2018 would be a bit arbitrary cutoff. Either way Sandin would probably be the most natural comparable as he played the same amount of games for the same team just one season after.

The cutoff was 40 games minimum, which is over half of an AHL season.

Difference with Sandin who was a little older for his AHL debut is he already spent one year playing in North America and was used to the small ice.

 

[Wings4Life]

Liljegren still has top pairing potential if Keefe can get him some top unit PP time and confidence.

Juolevi does not.

 

[Holymakinaw]

Liljegren EASILY.

 

[GoBuds14]

Threads like this are pointless because 95% of the people who post just look up stats as opposed to watching BOTH of these 2 play. No disrespect to the AHL but I can guarantee very few people actually watch enough of both of these guys to have an informed opinion

 

[Albatros]

The cutoff was 40 games minimum, which is over half of an AHL season.

Difference with Sandin who was a little older for his AHL debut is he already spent one year playing in North America and was used to the small ice.

Over 40 games between 1995 and 2018 it's just five: Uchevatov, Voynov, Lindholm, Kylington, Liljegren. Hamr was just before and Sandin just after, but both of them were higher PPG.

On the other hand despite being drafted from Sweden Liljegren is also American which will have benefited his transition off the ice compared to many European prospects.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

Over 40 games between 1995 and 2018 it's just five: Uchevatov, Voynov, Lindholm, Kylington, Liljegren.

You are missing another 1st rounder, Golubovsky from Detroit. Liljegren topped them all in his 18 year old season.

On the other hand despite being drafted from Sweden Liljegren is also American which will have benefited his transition off the ice compared to many European prospects.

No. As I posted earlier, Liljegren had no experience playing on small ice before, and the transition was a disadvantage for him in his first year in North America, same as for any European prospect that makes that transition.

He is also a Swedish guy raised by a single Swedish mom in Sweden. I’m not sure what pointing out that he has an American deadbeat dad who was absent from his life has to do with anything other than being a huge reach on your part.

 

[Albatros]

You are missing another 1st rounder, Golubovsky from Detroit. Liljegren topped them all in his 18 year old season.

No. As I posted earlier, Liljegren had no experience playing on small ice before, and the transition was a disadvantage for him in his first year in North America, same as for any European prospect that makes that transition.

He is also a Swedish guy raised by a single Swedish mom in Sweden. I’m not sure what pointing out that he has an American deadbeat dad who was absent from his life has to do with anything other than being a huge reach on your part.

That's starting from 1994 then rather than -95. Also it's worth noting that Voynov was 8+15=23 (Liljegren 1+16=17) despite being less than 0.01 PPG under. Really the only relevant guy he was better offensively than was Hampus Lindholm (1+10=11). Golubovsky and Uchevatov never became good players even in Russia, and Kylington now has 39 NHL games going into his fifth season.

Parents being divorced is not that unusual condition, family matters otherwise are not for me to judge so let's leave it at that.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Liljegren still has top pairing potential if Keefe can get him some top unit PP time and confidence.

Juolevi does not.

I think the odds of either of them being top pairing at this point are virtually zero.
You can’t put up the kind of numbers Liljigren did last year and argue that there is top pairing potential. That ship has sailed for both of them imo.

 

[bukwas]

People that claim this or that is the ceiling/floor for these young D just look foolish.
They're too young for that nonsense.

 

[wetcoast]

First thing was I thought what car enthusiasts would think about which is the better car.

Lada or Yugo?

Which player would drive which car?

 

[Albatros]

Lada would be Niklas Hjalmarsson, Yugo Brandon Manning.

 

[I am Canadian]

Liljegren still has top pairing potential if Keefe can get him some top unit PP time and confidence.

Juolevi does not.

Liljegren's offensive potential is falling, and his skating - mostly pivoting is lacking at times.

He is projected to be a #4 - maybe he could be a good 2nd pairing Dman but it's pretty unrealistic to say he has top pairing potential.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

Juolevi. Better hockey sense. He may not be the allstar some want him to be, but he will be a useful top 4 D man. Lilegren is a question mark, draft stock fell, LA preferred Durzi over him, he is a supposed offensive D man without the offensive stats. Some people question if he has the hockey IQ to be a top 4 NHL D man. Too many unknowns.

 

[Mr Plow]

I'm not convinced that either guy ends up sticking in the NHL.

 

[Sundinisagod]

Juolevi. Better hockey sense. He may not be the allstar some want him to be, but he will be a useful top 4 D man. Lilegren is a question mark, draft stock fell, LA preferred Durzi over him, he is a supposed offensive D man without the offensive stats. Some people question if he has the hockey IQ to be a top 4 NHL D man. Too many unknowns.

LA preferred Durzi over Liljegren? Is there a source for that?

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I think the odds of either of them being top pairing at this point are virtually zero.
You can’t put up the kind of numbers Liljigren did last year and argue that there is top pairing potential. That ship has sailed for both of them imo.

Nice statwatching analysis. Liljegren played through a pair of nagging injuries last year, didn’t really return to form until partway through the playoffs. His raw stats from the regular season don’t tell half the story in his case.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

That's starting from 1994 then rather than -95. Also it's worth noting that Voynov was 8+15=23 (Liljegren 1+16=17) despite being less than 0.01 PPG under. Really the only relevant guy he was better offensively than was Hampus Lindholm (1+10=11). Golubovsky and Uchevatov never became good players even in Russia, and Kylington now has 39 NHL games going into his fifth season.

Yes, from the lockout, as my original post said. The rest of your paragraph is drivel and doesn’t really matter. Liljegren had the best PPG out of a group of prospects who were all first or second rounders. The fact that not all of them turned into NHLers is not relevant.

Parents being divorced is not that unusual condition, family matters otherwise are not for me to judge so let's leave it at that.

The point is that Liljegren had the same disadvantage as other Euros in transitioning from the big European ice to the smaller North American ice size. Claiming otherwise, and using his absent American dad to do so, is a huge reach on your part.

 

[Albatros]

Yes, from the lockout, as my original post said. The rest of your paragraph is drivel and doesn’t really matter. Liljegren had the best PPG out of a group of prospects who were all first or second rounders. The fact that not all of them turned into NHLers is not relevant.

I would say it's quite relevant if beating guys that didn't turn into NHLers is supposed to prove that he's a blue-chip prospect. Only the one that did is of any value as a comparison, and he isn't an offensive defenseman either. Ultimately what is left is Sandin who was much better, yet is not much of a blue-chip prospect either.

The point is that Liljegren had the same disadvantage as other Euros in transitioning from the big European ice to the smaller North American ice size. Claiming otherwise, and using his absent American dad to do so, is a huge reach on your part.

I don't think it's much of a reach to suggest that a guy that has a half of his family in New Jersey and is a US citizen has it easier adapting to play in North America than your typical European prospect, as there's much more to it than just rink size.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

I would say it's quite relevant if beating guys that didn't turn into NHLers is supposed to prove that he's a blue-chip prospect. Only the one that did is of any value as a comparison, and he isn't an offensive defenseman either. Ultimately what is left is Sandin who was much better, yet is not much of a blue-chip prospect either.

Many players are considered good prospects at 18 years old, not all of which will make the NHL. All of these players were considered good prospects, and they were all chosen in the first two rounds as a result. As 18 year olds, Liljegren lead them all in points per game. The fact that some (only 2) of them had injuries/personal issues that kept them out of the NHL in their 20s has little bearing as to their level of play at 18 years old, which was 1st and 2nd round caliber.

I don't think it's much of a reach to suggest that a guy that has a half of his family in New Jersey and is a US citizen has it easier adapting to play in North America than your typical European prospect, as there's much more to it than just rink size.

It’s an embarrassing reach. I commented about Liljegren having to adjust to the North American sized ice since he played in Sweden his whole life, and you respond with some head scratching nonsense about his dad who lives a continent away. Give your head a shake.

 

[joe dirte]

I don't think it's much of a reach to suggest that a guy that has a half of his family in New Jersey and is a US citizen has it easier adapting to play in North America than your typical European prospect, as there's much more to it than just rink size.

Lol. This is hilarious. Having family in the hockey hotbed of new jersey that hes never met makes it easier for him to adjust to NA ice.

Fyi juolevi is not blue chip. He didnt even crack many publications top 50 drafted prospects lists thisbyear while sandin was typically top 20 or 30.