Prospect Info: Olli Juolevi, Pt. V

[DFAC]

Imagine if he comes into camp, makes the team.
Plays the whole season. Averages 18 minutes a night. Scores 20-25 points on the season, and provides "adqeuate" defensive play in his own zone.

That's like best case scenario and it would still be considered "under performing" based on where he was drafted.

Really? That sounds like Sergachev....

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Really? That sounds like Sergachev....

Sergachev had 40 points in his rookie season...

 

[Pavel96]

Sergachev had 40 points in his rookie season...

That was in the NHL?

 

[I am toxic]

The key word here is "imagine"

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

That was in the NHL?

Yes.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Anyone who mentions Sergachev in this thread isn't paying attention. Here's what Lightning fans think of Sergachev:

An unmitigated disaster as a top 4 Dman at this stage of his career.

I have serious concerns that he has the hockey IQ to be more than a depth Dman with a good shot.

He's getting to be as annoying as Drouin except defense is his first job.

His defense and engagement still so bad but if he had the 2 guys ahead of him doing their job it wouldn't look as bad. And credit where it's due, getting anything on the scoreboard is an achievement right now.

we need to get a couple younger legit d men.... sergachev is a mess serious mess

Sergachev has been god awful. And I LIKE sergachev.

Sergachev is so awful it's not even funny.

Had high hopes for this guy, been noticing his laziness and stupid passes the last couple months. It showed big time tonight.

This dude has no idea how to gap up. It's really bad. He's either going out of position to make a hit at the redline or he's sitting back at the top of the circles.

I remember this past summer when most people balked at the idea of including 98 in a deal for Karlsson. I get that he has potential and he looked good last season, but his sloppy play & lackadaisical style is just unbearable right now. Hope maybe it’s just a sophomore slump kind of thing. Otherwise he’ll be another lazy Russian with wasted talent. To think that he was possibly the piece holding up any deal for EK just drives me nuts.

You ever seen this guy on a loose puck?

Me neither.

The positional stuff, gap control etc are mistakes a 20 year old is going to make and you can learn but man not moving your feet to fight for pucks? being soft as hell on the boards? that's just a matter of getting in there and doing the work. It's just pure lazy from a 20 year old professional hockey player"

I think he's just slow to react in the defensive zone because he has problems processing plays.

I thought he was supposed to skate well

one last note thank god cernak and foote were trained to be d first cause sergachev is abysmal at this point serious liability and that sucks.... Cernak had his worst game all year last night imho pass after pass after pass missing smdh. But still sergachev somehow was worse to me and im like putting him in rare category of carle/sustr.....I am not sure we can get through to this kid shoot game three 5 times he was out of place on wrong side of net. He was almost crying on ice as he made plays rewatch tape if you can so the staff was on him but damn did he get all messed up in head that game.... sad hope im wrong and we can fix him a bit at least not to be a liability

 

[Pip]

I’d much rather have a struggling AHL defenseman with injury problems than a young NHL defensemen that slumped after a 40 point rookie year.

 

[Wo Yorfat]

I’d much rather have a struggling AHL defenseman with injury problems than a young NHL defensemen that slumped after a 40 point rookie year.

If you have a silly voice and a stock of soy sauce/printer ink, you've met the 3 qualifications for the job.

 

[RobertKron]

Anyone who mentions Sergachev in this thread isn't paying attention. Here's what Lightning fans think of Sergachev:

Here’s what Canuck fans have to say about Juolevi’s play with the team:

 

[dwarf]

If we can package him up at the draft aka Barzal trade you have to do it! To bad Charelli is gone and even his old bud couldn't make a deal with him to help us. Sigh

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

I’d much rather have a struggling AHL defenseman with injury problems than a young NHL defensemen that slumped after a 40 point rookie year.

Is this sarcasm?

It’s also very common for young dmen to regress in points in their sophomore season. A lot of the time it’s because they are sheltered and given more offensive zone starts as a rookie, and then play tougher minutes as a sophomore. It’s happened with quite a few great NHL dmen lately (Ekblad, Ghost, Trouba, etc.).

 

[VanJack]

So let me get this straight. The Lightning fans are unhappy that a 20-year old d-man gets exposed in the crucible of an intense playoff series. Meantime, this is supposed to make Canucks fans feel more happy with their 20 year old d-man who struggled briefly in the AHL this season and has never played a single NHL game? Seriously?

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Here’s what Canuck fans have to say about Juolevi’s play with the team:

Most Canuck fans know even less about his play.

I’d much rather have a struggling AHL defenseman with injury problems than a young NHL defensemen that slumped after a 40 point rookie year.

Except Juolevi was scoring at a historically amazing rate for defensemen his age in that league. So this idea that he was struggling is total bunk. Certain parts of his game defensively suffered probably due to lingering injury but the overall body of work cannot be characterized as a struggle.

 

[EXTRAS]

"I may not end up as a quality NHL dman, but at least some losers on the Internet had 5 threads, with 40 pages each, and around 4000 posts obsessing about me: what have you done?" - Juolevi

 

[TruKnyte]

Most Canuck fans know even less about his play.



Except Juolevi was scoring at a historically amazing rate for defensemen his age in that league. So this idea that he was struggling is total bunk. Certain parts of his game defensively suffered probably due to lingering injury but the overall body of work cannot be characterized as a struggle.

Except that doesn't align with reports from people who actually watch Utica games.

 

[RobertKron]

Except that doesn't align with reports from people who actually watch Utica games.

CMON WHAT KIND OF IDIOT PAYS ATTENTION TO WHAT FANS ARE SAYING ABOUT A PLAYER

 

[Siludin]

Top-5 pick defenseman makes NHL at 21:
Fans: "I better kill myself. This team is trash."

 

[TruGr1t]

Top-5 pick defenseman makes NHL at 21:
Fans: "I better kill myself. This team is trash."

You better hope he makes the show this year. Though I dunno why you'd think that. He's Utica bound.

 

[Motte and Bailey]

Except that doesn't align with reports from people who actually watch Utica games.

Took the time to go through all the Utica games to date and I am VERY impressed by the top 4 D in Utica with Ollie leading the way as their number 1. I think all four of those kids will be NHL regulars - Sautner, Jalen, Ollie and Briesbois all have great instincts, all can skate and all seem to do a lot of the key breakout things "right" which is key in the increasingly fast paced NHL. They all make mistakes that all young D make but you could put any one of the four in the NHL right now and they would be just fine. However, they have a top 4 role in Utica and given the nature of the AHL game, they are getting far better development minutes and having to play in all key situations (PP, PK etc.). It has been a long while (long before I started following Vancouver) when the Canucks have had four NHL ready Dmen that were in their farm system and were all this young all at the same time.

Back to OJ specifically, he needs to time some of his pinches better but his breakout passes and carries are elite and NHL ready. He is playing more physically than he did last year in Finland and using his size to advantage. He is very calm on the PP with the puck and gets the puck low versus shooting into shin-pads.

Early in the season but Canucks have four of the better top 4 D in the AHL when you take age and potential into account. Wow, it has been a long time since you could say that.

I watched every minute of every game to this point in the season and he is their best Dman - period. Plus/minus is at times a useless stat - and certainly it is with Utica so far this season. Brisebois has been good but has a better partner and has not been left alone on many odd-man rushes nor has he been given the tough assignments. Juolevi has gone up against the other teams number one line almost exclusively each game plus the PP and PK assignments.

No one is overevaluating anyone - simply watching the games and commenting. If you have been watching the games and have a different perspective, that is more than fine. If you are basing it on stats - go right ahead. I use the eye test over stats myself. Your method is up to you.

I also watch Utica games and I will put it this way. There’s no one one the Comets blue line capable of moving the puck half as well as Juolevi. He makes passes that his teammates aren’t ready for/can’t handle that higher skilled players would. Certain Utica posters who have downplayed this skill by saying that “oh he’s just passing the puck from the top of the triangle to open wings” as if it isn’t important underestimate how having a quick, decisive QB who consistently makes crisp clean passes on the tape or the lack thereof can transform a power play. He’s constantly pushing the play up ice and almost always makes good split second decisions with the puck in every zone. He is also very good at reading plays, breaking them up and sending his team up ice on the offensive. He doesn’t throw a lot of hits but he’s quite aggressive defensively with his stick and doesn’t hesitate to block shots. People are hearing that he doesn’t physically engage and thinking he’s soft but if that were the case he wouldn’t block shots the way he does. He is probably thinking correctly that his best weapon is his stick which is very good, so it’s his go to defensive move. If I were him, with that many elite tools and basically guaranteed an NHL career I wouldn’t be risking my health in the minor league any more than is absolutely necessary. The game is moving away from physically punishing defenders anyway. He’s very noticeably playing a style of defense that will be quite effective in the NHL with the way the game is trending.

 

[Siludin]

You better hope he makes the show this year. Though I dunno why you'd think that. He's Utica bound.

You are insane if you don't think Juolevi gets games next year. They'll gift him games just to trade him at the very least. Any team that picks him up will also give him games to see what they have. Juolevi is in the NHL next year.

 

[TruGr1t]

You are insane if you don't think Juolevi gets games next year. They'll gift him games just to trade him at the very least. Any team that picks him up will also give him games to see what they have. Juolevi is in the NHL next year.

He will get some games but that's not the same as making the NHL. Did Sautner or Brisebois "make the NHL" this year? Obviously not.

Lot's of borderline players get games every year on bad teams. Doesn't mean squat.

The plan was to get Juolevi some games this year, actually. Probably turned out well that they didn't since he'd likely have resembled a poor man's Pouliot.

This way everyone can talk about Juolevi making the NHL and not discuss how he's not even close to being a NHL player.

 

[1440]

You completely missed my point; you can say because a player put up 100 points in junior and is successful at the nhl level another player putting up those same points in junior will be successful as well. There is no correlation at all

Okay...
To dumb it down even further:

"In statistics, dependence or association is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. In the broadest sense correlation is any statistical association, though in common usage it most often refers to how close two variables are to having a linear relationship with each other." - Wikipedia

What correlation refers to in this case is a relationship between the two variables of points in junior and points in the NHL.
The correlation is obviously not 1:1, since some players put up big numbers in the CHL but never match their expected production in the NHL (ie: Daigle), and some put up modest numbers in the CHL and far exceed it in the NHL (ie: Lucic). As a generalization though, point production in lower leagues is one of the better tools that we have to predict NHL point production.

What this means is we cannot say with absolute certainty:
"because a player put up 100 points in junior and is successful at the nhl level another player putting up those same points in junior will be successful as well"
This is not a helpful statement to make because we are not attempting to trade in absolute certainties.

But we can say: (because correlation is a thing)
"because a player put up 100 points in junior and is successful at the nhl level another player putting up those same points in junior will likely be successful as well"
And that is exactly what I am saying.

 

[xtra]

Okay...
To dumb it down even further:

"In statistics, dependence or association is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. In the broadest sense correlation is any statistical association, though in common usage it most often refers to how close two variables are to having a linear relationship with each other." - Wikipedia

What correlation refers to in this case is a relationship between the two variables of points in junior and points in the NHL.
The correlation is obviously not 1:1, since some players put up big numbers in the CHL but never match their expected production in the NHL (ie: Daigle), and some put up modest numbers in the CHL and far exceed it in the NHL (ie: Lucic). As a generalization though, point production in lower leagues is one of the better tools that we have to predict NHL point production.

What this means is we cannot say with absolute certainty:
"because a player put up 100 points in junior and is successful at the nhl level another player putting up those same points in junior will be successful as well"
This is not a helpful statement to make because we are not attempting to trade in absolute certainties.

But we can say: (because correlation is a thing)
"because a player put up 100 points in junior and is successful at the nhl level another player putting up those same points in junior will likely be successful as well"
And that is exactly what I am saying.

Except you original post said he WILL be as successful not possibly or likely

Therefore, when one looks at Sergachev, or Mete who produced similar numbers in the same era in the OHL as Juolevi and are playing (well?) in the NHL. The logical conclusion should be "well if they can do it history says Olli will be able to too". This is the definition of cohort success, which is a positive affirmation of Juolevi's value. Drafting a player is a sunk cost, so it is defeatist to whine about his more immediately successful cohorts.

 

[TruKnyte]

Can you link that to the actual poster please? If you take 5 minutes to go through the Utica thread you'll see a lot more posters concerned about his development than positive.



@RonningMorrisonBooth

 

[RobertKron]

Can you link that to the actual poster please? If you take 5 minutes to go through the Utica thread you'll see a lot more posters concerned about his development than positive.



@RonningMorrisonBooth

Two of them are one person on cdc in like mid-October.