Speculation: Oilers Shopping 10th Overall?

[EDMOILERS9729]

Could we pull off a Griffin Reinhart esque deal and get Cale Makar from the avs. They already have Macks bff Barrie and Timmins is tracking to be a hell of a player. Makar would be perfect. 10th overall + Puljujarvi for Makar maybe?

 

[HC7]

Could we pull off a Griffin Reinhart esque deal and get Cale Makar from the avs. They already have Macks bff Barrie and Timmins is tracking to be a hell of a player. Makar would be perfect. 10th overall + Puljujarvi for Makar maybe?

Lol probably not because Makar doesn't suck.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

What would philly have to add to flip picks with Edmonton. 10th for 14th.

 

[vanarchy]

for me any deal for the 10th is built around a RHD PP specialist who can play 20+ minutes has term left and is under 5 mill a year

And what are you adding to the 10th to get someone that matches that criteria?

 

[EDMOILERS9729]

What would philly have to add to flip picks with Edmonton. 10th for 14th.

No interest in trading down really. I would be interested in moving up however to guarantee us one of the 4 best dmen in the draft class.

 

[Eltuna]

Nuge is whatever the Oilers need him to be. Same with Draisaitl. Versatility is valuable. It’s not as black and white as ‘oh he’s a winger now’ or ‘oh that guy is a centre 100%’. Their position will fluctuate.

Because Nuge on McDavid’s wing is a hell of a player - we’re talking 35 goal, 75 point potential. I see Barrie as more of a Shattenkirk type - all the pluses, all the blunders - but Avs fans seem to want him valued as a legitimate #1, which I just don’t see. Most of his production surge came on the powerplay, and while that has value, I think we’d want someone better in his own zone and at even strength.

Nuge for Barrie a couple years ago - pre Hall trade - would have made sense. Not so anymore. We’re fresh out of trades to lose.

Trading Nuge for Barrie doesn’t plug a hole for us, it just changes the location around and suddenly an already thin forward group is downright anorexic.

I decided to look at the numbers as I knew this comment was misinformed. In the past 5 years, Barrie is 10th in total 5v5 scoring and 9th in 5v5 scoring per game. He has a higher 5v5 scoring rate per game than Subban, Doughty, Calsson, and Keith. The 9 names ahead of him in total 5v5 points are Karlsson, Burns, Hedman, Subban, Josi, Buff, Pietrangelo, Keith, and Giordano. If Barrie’s 5v5 production isn’t good enough, which of these dmen would you like to aquire with the 10th overall pick or RNH? Barrie isn’t great defensively, but if he was he’d be a top 10 dman in the league easily and the oilers could never afford him, as his production is already elite.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I decided to look at the numbers as I knew this comment was misinformed. In the past 5 years, Barrie is 10th in total 5v5 scoring and 9th in 5v5 scoring per game. He has a higher 5v5 scoring rate per game than Subban, Doughty, Calsson, and Keith. The 9 names ahead of him in total 5v5 points are Karlsson, Burns, Hedman, Subban, Josi, Buff, Pietrangelo, Keith, and Giordano. If Barrie’s 5v5 production isn’t good enough, which of these dmen would you like to aquire with the 10th overall pick or RNH? Barrie isn’t great defensively, but if he was he’d be a top 10 dman in the league easily and the oilers could never afford him, as his production is already elite.

Last year - the year you’re trying to sell him on - he had well over half of his points come on the PP, and every last one of the defencemen listed ahead of him are much better in their own zone, where Barrie regularly gets caved. Quite like Faulk in that respect.

You’re not asking for RNH or 10th though are you? In most cases Avs fans want some pretty healthy additions to those pieces.

I’ve made my feelings on RNH pretty clear. If something could be done around 10, I’d think about it. If not, no sweat.

 

[Eltuna]

Last year - the year you’re trying to sell him on - he had well over half of his points come on the PP, and every last one of the defencemen listed ahead of him are much better in their own zone, where Barrie regularly gets caved. Quite like Faulk in that respect.

You’re not asking for RNH or 10th though are you? In most cases Avs fans want some pretty healthy additions to those pieces.

I’ve made my feelings on RNH pretty clear. If something could be done around 10, I’d think about it. If not, no sweat.

Last year he had 57 points in 68 games, with 27 of those coming at even strength which is still great production (0.397 5v5 points per game is elite production), downplaying Barrie by using a year where he was better offensively than every other dman not named Karlsson is not smart on your end. Regardless, I think the last 5 years and over 300 games are a better indication of Barrie’s ability at 5V5, which is top 10 in the league any way you look at it. Somebody saying Barrie is a pp specialist is the easiest way to determine they don’t know the player and are using stereotypes to form an opinion, Barrie is elite 5V5 and has been for years.

No I’m not asking for the 10th or RNH, because I’ve repeatedly showed you why those pieces don’t get Barrie. I’ve used numbers, player comparables, and actual trade comparables all showing why RNH doesn’t get Barrie, but you still don’t acknowledge you’re prior ignorance on his value, instead you’re doubling down every chance you get. A decent addition like the 10th plus the 2019 1st or RNH + 10th for Barrie + 16th is what I’ve asked for, which is fair value.

Of course all those dmen are better than Barrie defensively, that’s the point I’m trying to make, if you want a dman that’s as good as Barrie offensively, and also good defensively, you’re asking for a Subban. If you want a Subban, Draisaitl is the piece that’s moving.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Last year he had 57 points in 68 games, with 27 of those coming at even strength which is still great production (0.397 5v5 points per game is elite production), downplaying Barrie by using a year where he was better offensively than every other dman not named Karlsson is not smart on your end. Regardless, I think the last 5 years and over 300 games are a better indication of Barrie’s ability at 5V5, which is top 10 in the league any way you look at it. Somebody saying Barrie is a pp specialist is the easiest way to determine they don’t know the player and are using stereotypes to form an opinion, Barrie is elite 5V5 and has been for years.

No I’m not asking for the 10th or RNH, because I’ve repeatedly showed you why those pieces don’t get Barrie. I’ve used numbers, player comparables, and actual trade comparables all showing why RNH doesn’t get Barrie, but you still don’t acknowledge you’re prior ignorance on his value, instead you’re doubling down every chance you get. A decent addition like the 10th plus the 2019 1st or RNH + 10th for Barrie + 16th is what I’ve asked for, which is fair value.

Of course all those dmen are better than Barrie defensively, that’s the point I’m trying to make, if you want a dman that’s as good as Barrie offensively, and also good defensively, you’re asking for a Subban. If you want a Subban, Draisaitl is the piece that’s moving.

I’m not interested in overpaying for Barrie, which is what you’re after, which is what 10th + 2019 1st or RNH + 10 for Barrie and 16th is. The Avs are a perfect example of why trading unprotected first rounders is a fool’s errand. I have no idea of the Oilers pick will be 5th or 25th next year and Nuge will be a 30 goal guy on McDavid’s wing.

As for Barrie, sure he’s good offensively. However, much like guys like Shattenkirk and Faulk, I’m not convinced Barrie’s offense in a normal year outweighs his negatives.

 

[Eltuna]

I’m not interested in overpaying for Barrie, which is what you’re after, which is what 10th + 2019 1st or RNH + 10 for Barrie and 16th is. The Avs are a perfect example of why trading unprotected first rounders is a fool’s errand. I have no idea of the Oilers pick will be 5th or 25th next year and Nuge will be a 30 goal guy on McDavid’s wing.

As for Barrie, sure he’s good offensively. However, much like guys like Shattenkirk and Faulk, I’m not convinced Barrie’s offense in a normal year outweighs his negatives.

If you think the 10th plus or RNH plus is an overpayment, does that mean you think by themselves they are a fair payment? How is the 10th overall fair for a 50 point dman? Or how is a winger (going forward on the oilers as you stated) that scores less than Barrie worth the same? You keep calling it an overpayment and that’s where our problem is.

I think a better choice of words would be something like this “Eltuna, you’re right to ask for a decent addition to the 10th overall pick, Barrie’s numbers are just too difficult to ignore and among GM circles he no doubt possesses a high amount of value, I personally don’t like the player though and would prefer to go a different route”. That I would be okay with and respect, as not everybody likes the kind of player Barrie is. Saying it’s an overpayment is just wrong to me though. How is my evaluation unreasonable when we live in a world where Stepan gets the 7th overall pick + a recent 1st rounder prospect, Hamonic gets a 1st and 2 2nd’s, Yandle gets a 1st, a 2nd, and Duclair, and Shattenkirk is nearly traded for Hall and Drouin. That’s Barrie’s value, the 10th overall alone wouldn’t cut it.

 

[SnarkAttack]

If you think the 10th plus or RNH plus is an overpayment, does that mean you think by themselves they are a fair payment?.

 

[olli]

Could we pull off a Griffin Reinhart esque deal and get Cale Makar from the avs. They already have Macks bff Barrie and Timmins is tracking to be a hell of a player. Makar would be perfect. 10th overall + Puljujarvi for Makar maybe?

Not happening

 

[ChaoticOrange]

If you think the 10th plus or RNH plus is an overpayment, does that mean you think by themselves they are a fair payment? How is the 10th overall fair for a 50 point dman? Or how is a winger (going forward on the oilers as you stated) that scores less than Barrie worth the same? You keep calling it an overpayment and that’s where our problem is.

I think a better choice of words would be something like this “Eltuna, you’re right to ask for a decent addition to the 10th overall pick, Barrie’s numbers are just too difficult to ignore and among GM circles he no doubt possesses a high amount of value, I personally don’t like the player though and would prefer to go a different route”. That I would be okay with and respect, as not everybody likes the kind of player Barrie is. Saying it’s an overpayment is just wrong to me though. How is my evaluation unreasonable when we live in a world where Stepan gets the 7th overall pick + a recent 1st rounder prospect, Hamonic gets a 1st and 2 2nd’s, Yandle gets a 1st, a 2nd, and Duclair, and Shattenkirk is nearly traded for Hall and Drouin. That’s Barrie’s value, the 10th overall alone wouldn’t cut it.

Then you’re more than welcome to try to find someone else willing to pay that kind of premium, because I’m not. We have overpaid a lot lately and are no longer in a position we can overpay for anyone else.

With Nuge it’s not so much about overpayment as it is we can’t afford to lose him. You calling him a winger doesn’t make him a winger. He’s a centre that’s versaile enough to play the wing too - and be trusted in all situations. Defensively he’s better than Barrie is.

Points isn’t everything especially when it comes to defencemen. Again if you want a top ten pick ++, shop elsewhere. Someone might be willing to pay that price for a ‘50 point’ defenceman that can’t defend at an even adequate level, but I am not.

 

[Avs44]

Ah, the ‘Barrie can’t play D’ buzzwords are back out. How unsurprising.

 

[Eltuna]

Then you’re more than welcome to try to find someone else willing to pay that kind of premium, because I’m not. We have overpaid a lot lately and are no longer in a position we can overpay for anyone else.

With Nuge it’s not so much about overpayment as it is we can’t afford to lose him. You calling him a winger doesn’t make him a winger. He’s a centre that’s versaile enough to play the wing too - and be trusted in all situations. Defensively he’s better than Barrie is.

Points isn’t everything especially when it comes to defencemen. Again if you want a top ten pick ++, shop elsewhere. Someone might be willing to pay that price for a ‘50 point’ defenceman that can’t defend at an even adequate level, but I am not.

Again, it’s not an overpayment or a premium, it’s what his value is. A better thing to say is, “Barrie will cost too much because of how good he is, and the oilers can’t afford it and are better off going for a cheaper option”. I don’t think that sentence is true, because all indications point to the oilers front office wanting a guy exactly like Barrie, but I think that’s a better way of saying what your point is. What you continue to say is that I’m overvaluing Barrie and you’re offering the correct value, which is not true. I’m offering his correct value and you don’t want to pay it, that’s the difference. There’s no way you can look at recent deals and then think that Barrie’s value is the 10th overall straight up, it’s what you, ChaoticOrange would pay, but it is not his value and you continue not to get that.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Again, it’s not an overpayment or a premium, it’s what his value is. A better thing to say is, “Barrie will cost too much because of how good he is, and the oilers can’t afford it and are better off going for a cheaper option”. I don’t think that sentence is true, because all indications point to the oilers front office wanting a guy exactly like Barrie, but I think that’s a better way of saying what your point is. What you continue to say is that I’m overvaluing Barrie and you’re offering the correct value, which is not true. I’m offering his correct value and you don’t want to pay it, that’s the difference. There’s no way you can look at recent deals and then think that Barrie’s value is the 10th overall straight up, it’s what you, ChaoticOrange would pay, but it is not his value and you continue not to get that.

I don’t really care what you see his value as, to be honest. I’m telling you that if I ran the Oilers I’d offer 10th. If you said no, totally fine, I’d move along. No hard feelings, no chest pounding about how high his value is, nothing else.

 

[Eltuna]

I don’t really care what you see his value as, to be honest. I’m telling you that if I ran the Oilers I’d offer 10th. If you said no, totally fine, I’d move along. No hard feelings, no chest pounding about how high his value is, nothing else.

It’s not what I see his value as, it’s what the other GMs see his value as (according to other recent trades). It’s not Eltunas evaluation of Barrie, it’s what Barrie’s value actually is. The problem is you calling it an overpayment, which I couldn’t prove any more clearly is not the case. You wouldn’t pay for Barrie, that’s fine, just don’t act like it’s an overpayment or a premium, because it isn’t.

 

[Eltuna]

Posing it as a question removes the logic component all together. I wasn’t stating that not adding a 2019 1st to the 10th = ChaoticOrange would only pay the 10th straight up, which would be logic and forcing deductions which you’re trying to mock. I was asking if that statement was true to him, which it actually was. It wasn’t using logic to deduce a universal truth, it was posing a question to better understand a situation and another posters opinion. You’re meme makes no sense in this context.

 

[SnarkAttack]

Posing it as a question removes the logic component all together. I wasn’t stating that not adding a 2019 1st to the 10th = ChaoticOrange would only pay the 10th straight up, which would be logic and forcing deductions which you’re trying to mock. I was asking if that statement was true to him, which it actually was. It wasn’t using logic to deduce a universal truth, it was posing a question to better understand a situation and another posters opinion. You’re meme makes no sense in this context.

Lol, my bad. I thought you said

"If you think the 10th plus RNH is an overpayment, does that mean you think by themselves they are a fair payment?"

I can't read, but the meme would have made sense if that was your question.

 

[missionAvs]

I don’t really care what you see his value as, to be honest. I’m telling you that if I ran the Oilers I’d offer 10th. If you said no, totally fine, I’d move along. No hard feelings, no chest pounding about how high his value is, nothing else.

That would be a Barrie bad trade for the Avs...

Sorry, couldn't help myself

 

[ChaoticOrange]

It’s not what I see his value as, it’s what the other GMs see his value as (according to other recent trades). It’s not Eltunas evaluation of Barrie, it’s what Barrie’s value actually is. The problem is you calling it an overpayment, which I couldn’t prove any more clearly is not the case. You wouldn’t pay for Barrie, that’s fine, just don’t act like it’s an overpayment or a premium, because it isn’t.

Tenth overall plus another unprotected first is absolutely an overpayment, I don’t care how highly you view him.

 

[Eltuna]

Tenth overall plus another unprotected first is absolutely an overpayment, I don’t care how highly you view him.

Do you have any comparables to show how it’s an overpayment? I can’t think of a trade where a similar dman to Barrie was traded for something like the 10th overall alone. Only trades like the Shattenkirk to Washington trade where he was a free agent come to mind, but obviously a pending UFA or a trade request reduces value. Barrie has no such baggage. I have plenty to show it as fair value. At 10th you’re looking at Ty Smith, whose absolute peak is......Tyson Barrie.

Hamonic gets a 1st + 2 2nds
Stepan gets 7th + DeAngelo
Yandle gets 1st + 2nd + Duclair
Duchene gets 1st+ 2nd + 3rd + Girard + Bowers+ Kamenev
Kaberle (rental) gets a 1st, former 1st rounder Corlbourne, and a conditional pick.

Even a guy like St Louis got 2 1st rounders when he was near retirement. Maybe the difference in our opinions comes from where we think the oilers 1st would be next season. I would peg that 2019 1st around 20th overall. I certainly couldn’t blame an oilers fan for being pessimistic about that pick though, but a center core that has McDavid+Draisaitl combined with a dcore that would have Barrie, Larsson, Nurse, and Klefbom should be a playoff team.

If you don’t want to add to the 10th overall, you’re probably looking at a dman like Faulk or Gardiner who would be a lot cheaper. History has shown that dmen like Barrie/Krug/Dumba are going to worth more than the 10th overall alone.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Do you have any comparables to show how it’s an overpayment? I can’t think of a trade where a similar dman to Barrie was traded for something like the 10th overall alone. Only trades like the Shattenkirk to Washington trade where he was a free agent come to mind, but obviously a pending UFA or a trade request reduces value. Barrie has no such baggage. I have plenty to show it as fair value. At 10th you’re looking at Ty Smith, whose absolute peak is......Tyson Barrie.

Hamonic gets a 1st + 2 2nds
Stepan gets 7th + DeAngelo
Yandle gets 1st + 2nd + Duclair
Duchene gets 1st+ 2nd + 3rd + Girard + Bowers+ Kamenev
Kaberle (rental) gets a 1st, former 1st rounder Corlbourne, and a conditional pick.

Even a guy like St Louis got 2 1st rounders when he was near retirement. Maybe the difference in our opinions comes from where we think the oilers 1st would be next season. I would peg that 2019 1st around 20th overall. I certainly couldn’t blame an oilers fan for being pessimistic about that pick though, but a center core that has McDavid+Draisaitl combined with a dcore that would have Barrie, Larsson, Nurse, and Klefbom should be a playoff team.

If you don’t want to add to the 10th overall, you’re probably looking at a dman like Faulk or Gardiner who would be a lot cheaper. History has shown that dmen like Barrie/Krug/Dumba are going to worth more than the 10th overall alone.

If Calgary could take back the Hamonic deal today they would, and none of those other deals knew where the firsts would land. 10th overall in a deep draft is worth a lot. If it’s not enough for a player I don’t hold in overly high regard anyway, then that’s fine. I don’t view Barrie as much of an upgrade over a guy like Faulk anyway.

 

[Bazeek]

If Calgary could take back the Hamonic deal today they would, and none of those other deals knew where the firsts would land. 10th overall in a deep draft is worth a lot. If it’s not enough for a player I don’t hold in overly high regard anyway, then that’s fine. I don’t view Barrie as much of an upgrade over a guy like Faulk anyway.

They knew were the pick was landing with the Stepan deal, but it also included a goalie that became the Yotes' starter.

 

[Eltuna]

If Calgary could take back the Hamonic deal today they would, and none of those other deals knew where the firsts would land. 10th overall in a deep draft is worth a lot. If it’s not enough for a player I don’t hold in overly high regard anyway, then that’s fine. I don’t view Barrie as much of an upgrade over a guy like Faulk anyway.

I think we’re at the point where it’s obvious you wouldn’t add to the 10th. I’d just like to get the point where you realize the 10th isn’t enough on a pure value basis, and that asking for more isn’t an overpayment, it’s just a payment. You might not value Barrie that highly, but the league does and that’s really the only thing that matters. Going for a Gardiner, signing a Green, or waiting 3 or 4 years for the prospect at 10 to make a contribution are the best options if you don’t want to pay the price for an established top 10 offensive dman like Barrie is. For the record, I don’t think those options are even that bad for the oilers, drafting a Smith and signing a a Green would be a solid plan.