Speculation: Offseason Thread II: ideas, proposals, general roster discussion

[DJA]

Idk... there’s this joker ..

That looks like a pure garbage sim on first glance

 

[Cowumbus]

Idk... there’s this joker ..

Idk I like our draft lottery odds. “Improve from within”

 

[Viqsi]

Idk... there’s this joker ..

That's a single simulated season. Typically thousands are run to get an idea of what's probable. That one presumably just represents a scenario in which Jones and Werenski both have early season-ending injuries or something - not likely, but still possible.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

That's a single simulated season. Typically thousands are run to get an idea of what's probable. That one presumably just represents a scenario in which Jones and Werenski both have early season-ending injuries or something - not likely, but still possible.

When I was a kid, probably somewhere in the 11-13-year-old range, a friend and I used to fill up his back patio with water and play hockey on the frozen surface when it was cold enough, which always seemed to be most of the winter but I digress. One year, we created an entire season from the Canadiens home team perspective and played it out, rotating who was the two goalies and who was everyone else and rotating who was the Habs and who was the opposition. Whoever was the non-goalies also got to do play-by-play. This really happened. (To this day, I still say "Potvin, Potvin, Potvin" with increasing intensity whenever the Isles great is brought up, which is a sub-story that no one cares about.)

We kept track of records and stats - I was a huge Steve Shutt fan, so I believe he led the Habs in goals - and played it all the way through every round of the playoffs until the Habs won the Cup (which they did with regularity at the time, as this was the mid-to-late 70s).

Why do I tell you this? Because it probably had about as much validity as that mock season.

 

[Johansen2Foligno]

When I was a kid, probably somewhere in the 11-13-year-old range, a friend and I used to fill up his back patio with water and play hockey on the frozen surface when it was cold enough, which always seemed to be most of the winter but I digress. One year, we created an entire season from the Canadiens home team perspective and played it out, rotating who was the two goalies and who was everyone else and rotating who was the Habs and who was the opposition. Whoever was the non-goalies also got to do play-by-play. This really happened. (To this day, I still say "Potvin, Potvin, Potvin" with increasing intensity whenever the Isles great is brought up, which is a sub-story that no one cares about.)

We kept track of records and stats - I was a huge Steve Shutt fan, so I believe he led the Habs in goals - and played it all the way through every round of the playoffs until the Habs won the Cup (which they did with regularity at the time, as this was the mid-to-late 70s).

Why do I tell you this? Because it probably had about as much validity as that mock season.

 

[majormajor]

When I was a kid, probably somewhere in the 11-13-year-old range, a friend and I used to fill up his back patio with water and play hockey on the frozen surface when it was cold enough, which always seemed to be most of the winter but I digress. One year, we created an entire season from the Canadiens home team perspective and played it out, rotating who was the two goalies and who was everyone else and rotating who was the Habs and who was the opposition. Whoever was the non-goalies also got to do play-by-play. This really happened. (To this day, I still say "Potvin, Potvin, Potvin" with increasing intensity whenever the Isles great is brought up, which is a sub-story that no one cares about.)

We kept track of records and stats - I was a huge Steve Shutt fan, so I believe he led the Habs in goals - and played it all the way through every round of the playoffs until the Habs won the Cup (which they did with regularity at the time, as this was the mid-to-late 70s).

Why do I tell you this? Because it probably had about as much validity as that mock season.

When I was that age "Potvin, Potvin, Potvin" referred to Felix Potvin. And Oates, Neely, Janney, and Bourque were among the names kids called out the most.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

When I was that age "Potvin, Potvin, Potvin" referred to Felix Potvin. And Oates, Neely, Janney, and Bourque were among the names kids called out the most.

Felix Potvin is the only player I’ve ever bought a jersey with their nameplate on it.

And the Habs thing is funny because I was a Leafs fan.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Exactly.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Idk... there’s this joker ..

Dude must smoke crack if he thinks CBJ will be 6th in central

 

[EspenK]

When I was that age "Potvin, Potvin, Potvin" referred to Felix Potvin. And Oates, Neely, Janney, and Bourque were among the names kids called out the most.

When I was that age the names most frequently called out were Marilyn, Brigitte & Sophia

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

When I was that age the names most frequently called out were Marilyn, Brigitte & Sophia

First line for the 1959 Bruins?

 

[JacketsDavid]

That's a single simulated season. Typically thousands are run to get an idea of what's probable. That one presumably just represents a scenario in which Jones and Werenski both have early season-ending injuries or something - not likely, but still possible.

Or maybe it represents a team with a lot of holes offensively?
We know we are strong with the dmen - same as last year. Just likely lacking some of the depth.
The goalie play was very good last year - but not a long track record for either guy so I'm sure there could be some regression in some eyes.
The forward lines have a lot of holes. Granted a lot of potential but a lot more "hopes and ifs" rather than proven lines.

Again we're in a relatively easy division. But I think some folks in here will look thru CBJ colored glasses to think we're assured of anything. Now if a lot of the youth steps up and we don't see regression with goalies we could indeed be the 3rd best team in the temporary division, but as likely we're 5-6th,

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

With a 56 game season and short training camp there is no room for the traditional slow start and needing to find a way to dig out of hole late season.

The team needs to come together quick. We lack experienced talent on offense.

 

[Viqsi]

Or maybe it represents a team with a lot of holes offensively?
We know we are strong with the dmen - same as last year. Just likely lacking some of the depth.
The goalie play was very good last year - but not a long track record for either guy so I'm sure there could be some regression in some eyes.
The forward lines have a lot of holes. Granted a lot of potential but a lot more "hopes and ifs" rather than proven lines.

Again we're in a relatively easy division. But I think some folks in here will look thru CBJ colored glasses to think we're assured of anything. Now if a lot of the youth steps up and we don't see regression with goalies we could indeed be the 3rd best team in the temporary division, but as likely we're 5-6th,

Oh, c'mon. With the way this fanbase reacts to everything, "looking through CBJ colored glasses" might as well indicate folks who think the team is going to do worse.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Oh, c'mon. With the way this fanbase reacts to everything, "looking through CBJ colored glasses" might as well indicate folks who think the team is going to do worse.

I wouldn't say worse but there is a case to say they over-performed last season and this season could return to normal. I have always been more concerned about the offensive production on this team.

 

[koteka]

I suspect St. Louis and Colorado want to avoid being in same division as the Lightning because they want to make deep playoff runs. The other teams (Dallas, Nashville, Minnesota) just want to make the playoffs, avoid COVID, and hope their games aren’t on too late for their fans so they may prefer being with us.

 

[majormajor]

Or maybe it represents a team with a lot of holes offensively?
We know we are strong with the dmen - same as last year. Just likely lacking some of the depth.
The goalie play was very good last year - but not a long track record for either guy so I'm sure there could be some regression in some eyes.
The forward lines have a lot of holes. Granted a lot of potential but a lot more "hopes and ifs" rather than proven lines.

Again we're in a relatively easy division. But I think some folks in here will look thru CBJ colored glasses to think we're assured of anything. Now if a lot of the youth steps up and we don't see regression with goalies we could indeed be the 3rd best team in the temporary division, but as likely we're 5-6th,

We're not assured anything, but your take is definitely in the pessimistic category.

The goalie play looked especially good last year because of the super defensive system. That could change, we could see big regression of save percentages if Torts loosens things up as promised. But if that happens, it's trading off strengths and weaknesses. The freer reins will help the scoring. I think Domi will help the scoring a lot too. "Unproven lines" is certainly an understated way to describe adding a very good playmaking center.

 

[JacketsDavid]

We're not assured anything, but your take is definitely in the pessimistic category.

The goalie play looked especially good last year because of the super defensive system. That could change, we could see big regression of save percentages if Torts loosens things up as promised. But if that happens, it's trading off strengths and weaknesses. The freer reins will help the scoring. I think Domi will help the scoring a lot too. "Unproven lines" is certainly an understated way to describe adding a very good playmaking center.

Domi is a very streaky forward and that isn't necessarily a good mix with Torts. Domi didn't like it when he was dropped to the 4th line in previous year and it's just a matter of time before he slumps and it would seem likely to me that Torts will shuffle his lines. Question will be how will Domi respond? Attached article says it well (talks about how Torts may pen up offense, but also the streaky play of Domi).

Can Max Domi boost the Blue Jackets the way Tortorella hopes?

I checked the vegas odds/futures for 2021 SC and it seems like Vegas agrees. Had us 23rd out of 31 teams for the cup and 10th place in odds in the West (now again these are with old divisions).

 

[majormajor]

Domi is a very streaky forward and that isn't necessarily a good mix with Torts. Domi didn't like it when he was dropped to the 4th line in previous year and it's just a matter of time before he slumps and it would seem likely to me that Torts will shuffle his lines. Question will be how will Domi respond? Attached article says it well (talks about how Torts may pen up offense, but also the streaky play of Domi).

Can Max Domi boost the Blue Jackets the way Tortorella hopes?

I checked the vegas odds/futures for 2021 SC and it seems like Vegas agrees. Had us 23rd out of 31 teams for the cup and 10th place in odds in the West (now again these are with old divisions).

If the Vegas odds ever get anything right with the Jackets maybe I'll start paying attention to them.

Yeah I'm sure Domi will have his share of dry spells. He does that, that's why he's not an 80 pt forward. But half a great year from him would still be a big upgrade on Wennberg/whatever we had at 2C before.

I don't fault you for posing questions, there are a dozen or so big unknowns, we should discuss those. I don't like it when the answers to every question are presumed to be negative. I don't see "hopes and ifs" as necessarily a bad thing, that's what each season is for most teams, especially for young teams like the Jackets.

 

[Fro]

I could be off, have been before, but PLD being in Columbus already means that something is stirring with a contract, or talks at least, wouldn't you think?

 

[Viqsi]

I wouldn't say worse but there is a case to say they over-performed last season and this season could return to normal. I have always been more concerned about the offensive production on this team.

This is the sort of thing that I think Bus is kvetching about when he mockingly goes on about everything being "unsustainable".

When you have a team and players that have "overperformed" as frequently as the Jackets have in the last few years, at some point, it kind of ceases to be "overperforming" and becomes more "getting underestimated". While that's not necessarily an inherently bad thing - opponents don't always prepare as thoroughly for a team they don't think highly of - it does get a mite bit troublesome when said team's own fanbase buys into it.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

This is the sort of thing that I think Bus is kvetching about when he mockingly goes on about everything being "unsustainable".

When you have a team and players that have "overperformed" as frequently as the Jackets have in the last few years, at some point, it kind of ceases to be "overperforming" and becomes more "getting underestimated". While that's not necessarily an inherently bad thing - opponents don't always prepare as thoroughly for a team they don't think highly of - it does get a mite bit troublesome when said team's own fanbase buys into it.

If there is one thing the CBJ are consistent with, it is the fact they almost always have trouble scoring goals, they almost always start the season poorly and they almost always need a big winning streak late in the season to sneak into the playoffs.

Had the season not been paused when it did, they were tracking to not make the playoffs by winning only 3 of their last 15 games when Jones went down. The big winning streak they had prior to that was when they were basically icing the Cleveland Monsters while Elvis proved his worth.

It is hard to say if they are actually a good team or not. Torts teams are built to play "playoff hockey" but they always seem to struggle playing "regular season hockey". You never know what you are going to get.

 

[KJ Dangler]

Or maybe it represents a team with a lot of holes offensively?
We know we are strong with the dmen - same as last year. Just likely lacking some of the depth.
The goalie play was very good last year - but not a long track record for either guy so I'm sure there could be some regression in some eyes.
The forward lines have a lot of holes. Granted a lot of potential but a lot more "hopes and ifs" rather than proven lines.

Again we're in a relatively easy division. But I think some folks in here will look thru CBJ colored glasses to think we're assured of anything. Now if a lot of the youth steps up and we don't see regression with goalies we could indeed be the 3rd best team in the temporary division, but as likely we're 5-6th,

Is it really a lot of hopes, and ifs to assume that Texier , and Bemstrom produce at a rate higher than last yr ? What about Foudy.. a kid that has blazing speed and Torts trusted enough to play in the playoffs against Toronto . Is Plds offensive game done growing ? Lastly , having a #2 c finally gives this team another legit scoring line . A center with gamebreaking speed , that can put up maybe close to 30 goals .

 

[cslebn]

I could be off, have been before, but PLD being in Columbus already means that something is stirring with a contract, or talks at least, wouldn't you think?

saw a tweet the other day with jarmo saying he’d be signed by camp

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Is it really a lot of hopes, and ifs to assume that Texier , and Bemstrom produce at a rate higher than last yr ? What about Foudy.. a kid that has blazing speed and Torts trusted enough to play in the playoffs against Toronto . Is Plds offensive game done growing ? Lastly , having a #2 c finally gives this team another legit scoring line . A center with gamebreaking speed , that can put up maybe close to 30 goals .

I can only hope Foudy performs for me like he has in NHL21 after I called him up from Cleveland. Texier has been strong too but Bemstrom really struggles in the game.