Speculation: Offseason Thread II: ideas, proposals, general roster discussion

[majormajor]

How do you know those players will be more consistent than last season when healthy?

I don't claim to know the future (you seem to be the one asserting that they will be weaker), but it's a simple matter of probability regarding young players. Players between the ages of 19 and 22 tend to improve a lot. That's a harder story to tell than the story of an acquisition, but it's more important.

 

[majormajor]

Last year's team was finishing well below 90 points if covid never happened. They were going nowhere fast without Jones and Bjorkstrand.

They finished at a 95 pt pace, end of story. Perhaps they were fortunate that the season ended early (we don't know), but if so there was still a mountain of bad luck that year to counterbalance that good fortune.

 

[DarkandStormy]

I don't know if they would have been well under 90 as they only needed 9 more points. Their last 10 games, before it was shut down, they were 3-4-3 for 9 points. All 10 games were without Jones, and 8 of the 10 were without Bjorkstrand. They got 1 point in the 2 games he played, both losses. They got 8 points in the last 8 games without both of them, and 9 of the 10 games were against playoff teams. I still think they had a decent shot at 90 points.

Also...

 

[Monstershockey]

Also...
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I was thinking about who they had left but didn't have time to look for it then. They definitely had a tough road down the stretch. It would have been rough without Jones and Bjorkstrand, but this team was resilient this year and at times could dig deep and pull out some tough wins. I think there would be a decent chance to pick up 9 points to get to 90. They were 14-5-6 against those teams during the season, (they also had Jones and Bjork for most of them), but this team could find ways to win facing adversity. I don't think the season outcome would have been any different if they still made the playoffs had there been no shutdown. This team surprised me this year, as I thought it would be a down year, but I pretty much underestimated them. Overall I think they had a good year, except they just couldn't get enough shots to find the back of the net.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I don't claim to know the future (you seem to be the one asserting that they will be weaker), but it's a simple matter of probability regarding young players. Players between the ages of 19 and 22 tend to improve a lot. That's a harder story to tell than the story of an acquisition, but it's more important.

I'm not asserting they will be weaker. I'm just stating they maybe they are who they are. There is no guarantee that they will be any better than what we've seen. By all accounts Bemstrom did very well playing in Finland. That might mean jack squat in the NHL.

I have never liked relying on unproven talent to be difference makers on a team but that is exactly what the CBJ seem to be doing.

 

[majormajor]

I'm not asserting they will be weaker. I'm just stating they maybe they are who they are. There is no guarantee that they will be any better than what we've seen. By all accounts Bemstrom did very well playing in Finland. That might mean jack squat in the NHL.

I have never liked relying on unproven talent to be difference makers on a team but that is exactly what the CBJ seem to be doing.

Nothing is proven or guaranteed, nor will it ever be in this sport. I'm talking about probability.

FWIW I don't expect too much from Bemstrom soon, but there is a strong likelihood that PLD will much better this year than last. We saw a drastic improvement by the playoff tournament.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Also...
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Assuming they had no Jones or Bjorkstrand for these games, and a half healthy Cam. They likely only win 3 of those games. Maybe some OTL's mixed in there (as well as OT wins for the three wins). That's no way getting in the playoffs.

Elvis' hot streak had ran out of gas, Korpi was just returning from injury, and the team was starting to flail in games. I don't think it would have ended well for us.

But that doesn't really matter. COVID happened, and we made it in on the technicality and won a round. That's pretty good considering what happened last offseason.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

I'm not asserting they will be weaker. I'm just stating they maybe they are who they are. There is no guarantee that they will be any better than what we've seen. By all accounts Bemstrom did very well playing in Finland. That might mean jack squat in the NHL.

I have never liked relying on unproven talent to be difference makers on a team but that is exactly what the CBJ seem to be doing.

I agree with your main point, but taking a chance on younger players worked out the last time the CBJ did an all in dive with them (the streak year, we had like 5-6 rookies). While it's not that drastic, the team has some talent. But the concerns are valid. It's mostly the same team as last year, and last years team was very much a bubble team.

 

[Xoggz22]

CapFriendly's really good: Columbus Blue Jackets - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps
But to sum up, we've got about $9.2m in projected space before Dubinksky LTIR or Dubois' next contract is considered.

In addition, Nyquist will join Dubinsky on LTIR allowing for additional moves. I'm thinking this may not necessarily be a cash strapped team but one that has an internal budget that needs to move someone and CBJ would be in a position the day the season opens by having both available for LTIR.

Although it's still uncertain if CJB has any of their own internal salary restrictions...

 

[DarkandStormy]

I keep seeing Granlund rumors every few weeks and then nothing happens.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

In addition, Nyquist will join Dubinsky on LTIR allowing for additional moves. I'm thinking this may not necessarily be a cash strapped team but one that has an internal budget that needs to move someone and CBJ would be in a position the day the season opens by having both available for LTIR.

Although it's still uncertain if CJB has any of their own internal salary restrictions...

I don't know Nyquist's salary will get put on LTIR and utilized. There is no guarantee he misses the entire season. It isn't like it is a career ending injury and we can just write it off and fill his roster spot. They won't go out and sign someone just to risk being over the cap if they need to activate him late in the season.

 

[majormajor]

Assuming they had no Jones or Bjorkstrand for these games, and a half healthy Cam. They likely only win 3 of those games. Maybe some OTL's mixed in there (as well as OT wins for the three wins). That's no way getting in the playoffs.

Elvis' hot streak had ran out of gas, Korpi was just returning from injury, and the team was starting to flail in games. I don't think it would have ended well for us.

But that doesn't really matter. COVID happened, and we made it in on the technicality and won a round. That's pretty good considering what happened last offseason.

Considering that you (and plenty of others) were dead certain their chances of winning more than 3 in 10 was dim, not just in March, but in every 10 game stretch going back to mid-December, I think we need some more humility about what the future would have been. Yes they needed some very "hot" play to win but that is also a thing that happens from time to time.

They also happened to get 9 points in 10 games even in that bad last 10 games. A couple more OT goals and they would have been keeping playoff pace even in that awful stretch.

I agree that it doesn't matter. We had some good luck and some bad luck, and we got in. Considering the array of factors it can't really tell us much negative about this year's team.

(I hope that is what you agree on, and aren't using the injury plagued disaster as some kind of evidence that the team will be less than something this year).

 

[majormajor]

I don't know Nyquist's salary will get put on LTIR and utilized. There is no guarantee he misses the entire season. It isn't like it is a career ending injury and we can just write it off and fill his roster spot. They won't go out and sign someone just to risk being over the cap if they need to activate him late in the season.

I could be wrong but I think spare cap accumulates over the course of the season, so if you've got $2m in cap room before Nyquist comes back it would add up to enough space to fit him in in the final third of the year. Don't take my word for it.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

I could be wrong but I think spare cap accumulates over the course of the season, so if you've got $2m in cap room before Nyquist comes back it would add up to enough space to fit him in in the final third of the year. Don't take my word for it.

I've always thought that you were never allowed to exceed the upper cap limit at any point during the season but it seems to be complex.

LTIR FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

I haven't read this fully to understand it completely but there is a calculation on average cap hit that comes into play. And none of this means anything until you actually spend over the cap, which we will probably not do since we didn't do it with Dubinsky and his career is effectively over. I still think there is a chance Dubinsky's contract gets traded to someone who needs the cap relief.

 

[majormajor]

I still think there is a chance Dubinsky's contract gets traded to someone who needs the cap relief.

That would be nice. Let's remember that we don't know if Dubi's contract was insurable, so it might be harder to move.

 

[Xoggz22]

I don't know Nyquist's salary will get put on LTIR and utilized. There is no guarantee he misses the entire season. It isn't like it is a career ending injury and we can just write it off and fill his roster spot. They won't go out and sign someone just to risk being over the cap if they need to activate him late in the season.

very little impact to CAP late in the season and he'll start on IR, then move to LTIR (I believe in normal seasons it's 21 games?). By the time he returns they'll have a lot of CAP space and Dubi won't be coming off so there is little to be concerned with regarding Gus.

 

[Xoggz22]

That would be nice. Let's remember that we don't know if Dubi's contract was insurable, so it might be harder to move.

I can almost guarantee you teams that need the space won't care if the cost of Dubi is covered or not. I believe it is but I don't know that Columbus wants to move it.

 

[majormajor]

I can almost guarantee you teams that need the space won't care if the cost of Dubi is covered or not. I believe it is but I don't know that Columbus wants to move it.

Dubinsky is owed $5.85m in actual salary this year. If that isn't insured I do think almost all teams would very much care to avoid burning that money, especially this year.

Tampa needs space but they're not a rich team. I think the only teams that can burn money are Toronto and the NY Rangers, and I'm not sure if they can make use of the LTIR benefit. Granted I'm a little confused about how the LTIR benefit can help the acquiring team. My understanding was that it is about helping get flush with the cap in a very specific situation, not every rich team can use it every year.

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Dubinsky is owed $5.85m in actual salary this year. If that isn't insured I do think almost all teams would very much care to avoid burning that money, especially this year.

Tampa needs space but they're not a rich team. I think the only teams that can burn money are Toronto and the NY Rangers, and I'm not sure if they can make use of the LTIR benefit. Granted I'm a little confused about how the LTIR benefit can help the acquiring team. My understanding was that it is about helping get flush with the cap in a very specific situation, not every rich team can use it every year.

Toronto definitely could. They just got Horton's contract off their books. Vegas as well because Clarkson just got wiped off too.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Considering that you (and plenty of others) were dead certain their chances of winning more than 3 in 10 was dim, not just in March, but in every 10 game stretch going back to mid-December, I think we need some more humility about what the future would have been. Yes they needed some very "hot" play to win but that is also a thing that happens from time to time.

They also happened to get 9 points in 10 games even in that bad last 10 games. A couple more OT goals and they would have been keeping playoff pace even in that awful stretch.

I agree that it doesn't matter. We had some good luck and some bad luck, and we got in. Considering the array of factors it can't really tell us much negative about this year's team.

(I hope that is what you agree on, and aren't using the injury plagued disaster as some kind of evidence that the team will be less than something this year).

This is a needlessly aggressive post for relaying the exact same thing I said.

The team is largely the same, so I would expect around the same kind of results. Maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse. But around the same.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

 

[majormajor]

This is a needlessly aggressive post for relaying the exact same thing I said.

The team is largely the same, so I would expect around the same kind of results. Maybe a bit better, maybe a bit worse. But around the same.

My apologies if it comes off as aggressive, I don't know if there is a way to call for humility without it seeming like an attack. When it comes to predicting the team performance in this or that stretch of games I think we as a board have done very poorly in recent years, that's all.

 

[majormajor]

Toronto definitely could. They just got Horton's contract off their books. Vegas as well because Clarkson just got wiped off too.

In terms of their pocket books, sure. I still don't get how they get a cap benefit though

 

[spintheblackcircle]

 

[Iron Balls McGinty]

Will change by the end of the first period in game 1.