OT: Official COVID-19 Thread

[HotDish]

i worked at sanford bemidji until the end of march, the initial estimates were actually like 1.2 million deaths. we are well below that.

IIRC that was if the US never did any social distancing or masks. At least that is what the University of SF made it sound like in their original report back in early spring. IDK how Bemidji modeled theirs though.

 

[GuerinUp]

IIRC that was if the US never did any social distancing or masks. At least that is what the University of SF made it sound like in their original report back in early spring. IDK how Bemidji modeled theirs though.

Was moreso about bedspace and spread vs caseload. not necessarily masks but moreso social distancing until an infastructure was made to prevent the overfilling of beds. one wouldve thought this 8 months wouldve been spent expanding beds for the known increase in cases bound to happen. but who knows i got outta working at hospitals before the inevitable S***storm. the pay wasnt worth killing my parents with covid

 

[57special]

I don't doubt that all sorts of people get Covid, and recover, even older people and ones with other health problems. This isn't Ebola, with an absolute terrifying death rate. But that's how the virus survives (unlike Ebola), and is so effective at spreading amongst those who take no precautions.

"Divide and conquer" seems to be an apt description of where we are right now in this country. One wonders who it serves.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I don't doubt that all sorts of people get Covid, and recover, even older people and ones with other health problems. This isn't Ebola, with an absolute terrifying death rate. But that's how the virus survives (unlike Ebola), and is so effective at spreading amongst those who take no precautions.

"Divide and conquer" seems to be an apt description of where we are right now in this country. One wonders who it serves.

I don't remember where I heard this quote but it's running:

To understand any issue in America you must first understand who benefits from it.

 

[fentonsbrainchild]

As a bartender this lockdown is incredibly frustrating. I’ll probably get half in unemployment than I’d normally make. I’m trying to direct my anger away from Walz and towards all the idiots who don’t wear their masks/social distance etc. Although it is a lot easier to just scapegoat one person.

Stay safe guys and please take care of yourselves and your loved ones.

 

[Yeolo]

As a bartender this lockdown is incredibly frustrating. I’ll probably get half in unemployment than I’d normally make. I’m trying to direct my anger away from Walz and towards all the idiots who don’t wear their masks/social distance etc. Although it is a lot easier to just scapegoat one person.

Stay safe guys and please take care of yourselves and your loved ones.

They need to pass a covid relief bill to fix that.

Term limits would solve almost every one of our gridlock problems we have between our two lovely political parties.

 

[GuerinUp]

As a bartender this lockdown is incredibly frustrating. I’ll probably get half in unemployment than I’d normally make. I’m trying to direct my anger away from Walz and towards all the idiots who don’t wear their masks/social distance etc. Although it is a lot easier to just scapegoat one person.

Stay safe guys and please take care of yourselves and your loved ones.

ya i chose not to bartend this year because of it. Its not just the masks though, youd make way less either way because of travel being limited.

 

[kfan22]

As a bartender this lockdown is incredibly frustrating. I’ll probably get half in unemployment than I’d normally make. I’m trying to direct my anger away from Walz and towards all the idiots who don’t wear their masks/social distance etc. Although it is a lot easier to just scapegoat one person.

Stay safe guys and please take care of yourselves and your loved ones.

you mean the idiots that go to a bar and help your paycheck

 

[fentonsbrainchild]

you mean the idiots that go to a bar and help your paycheck

Every other table being closed, ActivePure molecular technology creating a 99.98% bacteria free environment, masks required at every use other than while eating/drinking, etc.

I don’t think you understand how little responsibility falls on responsible restaurants. We’ve been open since June and have only seen an explosion of cases in the last few weeks. Is that because more people are dining in? Nope. The last six weeks have been our slowest since reopening. The explosion is coming from people who couldn’t resist showing off their Halloween costumes

 

[GuerinUp]

Every other table being closed, ActivePure molecular technology creating a 99.98% bacteria free environment, masks required at every use other than while eating/drinking, etc.

I don’t think you understand how little responsibility falls on responsible restaurants. We’ve been open since June and have only seen an explosion of cases in the last few weeks. Is that because more people are dining in? Nope. The last six weeks have been our slowest since reopening. The explosion is coming from people who couldn’t resist showing off their Halloween costumes

or people who went to vote

 

[TaLoN]

Every other table being closed, ActivePure molecular technology creating a 99.98% bacteria free environment, masks required at every use other than while eating/drinking, etc.

I don’t think you understand how little responsibility falls on responsible restaurants. We’ve been open since June and have only seen an explosion of cases in the last few weeks. Is that because more people are dining in? Nope. The last six weeks have been our slowest since reopening. The explosion is coming from people who couldn’t resist showing off their Halloween costumes

Correct. 71% of Minnesota cases have been traced to social gatherings.

 

[Yeolo]

or people who went to vote

Common sense told me to vote by mail.

Procrastination sent me to the polls to wait two hours on election day.

U S A
U S A

 

[a79krgm]

I highly suggest you talk to a front-line nurse or doctor to see what it's been like for them during this time.
Yes, MOST people will be largely unaffected, however many people still are. This causes hospitals to fill, and for resources to be strained.

I'm sorry if I triggered you by sharing a personal story of someone that I know who had minimal issues with the virus despite being in higher risk group. That story had nothing to do with hospital resources.

I expressed my opinion that the news media is not honest about the likelihood of contracting it, being hospitalized, and dying from it. Fear and emotion are basically the only thing being served to us.

 

[Minnewildsota]

I'm sorry if I triggered you by sharing a personal story of someone that I know who had minimal issues with the virus despite being in higher risk group. That story had nothing to do with hospital resources.

I expressed my opinion that the news media is not honest about the likelihood of contracting it, being hospitalized, and dying from it. Fear and emotion are basically the only thing being served to us.

You're presenting an anecdote as fact. That's the problem that I have with it.

 

[57special]

Oh, I have no doubt that the anecdote is factual. Just don't see how you make the leap from there to "the media is not being honest about the likelihood of contracting and surviving".

All you have to do is look at the numbers and see that the vast majority of those who contract Covid survive. However, it also takes a simple look at the numbers to realize that because of the huge amount of numbers being infected, the number dying is also very large. By the time this thing is at the one year mark, it will have killed what it takes the flu 12-13 years to.

On top of that, the numbers both in the nation, but especially in the midwest are shooting up. We lost 67 today, 56 just a couple of days ago. We've not seen these numbers before.

I don't see how the media is responsible for the numbers. I do see media of varying persuasions either emphasize it(MSNBC), or deny/ignore it(FOX), depending on who's side they're on. Go to a neutral site like Reuters or AP if you want uncolored news.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Crazy to think back how there were people claiming that scientists and doctors saying 100,000 deaths were being alarmists and doomsayers. Looking back 100,000 would've been a blessing.

I've never like being a told you so especially when it comes to grim news, but it was cathartic to chew out some relatives that told me that there was a 0% chance Minnesota was going to have over 100,000 cases and 1000 deaths. We already doubled those numbers.

That's some serious revisionist history.
What scientists were claiming 100,000 deaths. All the models were much much higher. The model that led to the original shut down claimed 2.2 million US wide. The model Walz was using originally claimed 70,000 in MN alone dead. Even after the third revision, and after the original lockdown was over it claimed 25,000 dead by end of year in absolute best case scenario with the strictest restrictions. That's 22,000 shy with a month to go.

The models have been way off the whole time. Completely appropriate to call them crap.

 

[57special]

The IMHE model has been quite accurate, if not a little conservative, and is commonly cited. It is the one I look to. I see no need to search for outliers, then cite them as reasons that we should pay no attention to science.

 

[ThatGuy22]

The IMHE model has been quite accurate, if not a little conservative, and is commonly cited. It is the one I look to. I see no need to search for outliers, then cite them as reasons that we should pay no attention to science.

Have they gotten better? That one was terrible back in March through may when I was tracking it closely. It couldn't predict next week without being off a factor of 10, let alone end of year.

Also I don't consider it anti science to evaluate what the predictions were, and judge how they've done. Wonder if IHME archives their past projections.

 

[HotDish]

That's some serious revisionist history.
What scientists were claiming 100,000 deaths. All the models were much much higher. The model that led to the original shut down claimed 2.2 million US wide. The model Walz was using originally claimed 70,000 in MN alone dead. Even after the third revision, and after the original lockdown was over it claimed 25,000 dead by end of year in absolute best case scenario with the strictest restrictions. That's 22,000 shy with a month to go.

The models have been way off the whole time. Completely appropriate to call them crap.

Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing - CNN

And assuming social distancing will continue through May, it finds that, by August, around 82,000 people in the US could die from Covid-19.

Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number," the researchers wrote, "but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."

The nation's top infectious disease specialist, Dr. Anthony Fauci, told CNN's Jake Tapper on Sunday that substantially more people could die: "Looking at what we're seeing now, I would say that 100,000 and 200,000" deaths could occur.

This was from March. Probably pretty accurate looking back.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Model cited by White House says 82,000 people could die from coronavirus by August, even with social distancing - CNN







This was from March. Probably pretty accurate looking back.

Fair enough. Egg on my face. I dont recall that particular headline. Must not have been doom and gloom enough to receive the sustained media headlines the 2.2 million one or the shitty model Walz was using.

Thanks for bringing the receipts.

 

[GuerinUp]

Oh, I have no doubt that the anecdote is factual. Just don't see how you make the leap from there to "the media is not being honest about the likelihood of contracting and surviving".

All you have to do is look at the numbers and see that the vast majority of those who contract Covid survive. However, it also takes a simple look at the numbers to realize that because of the huge amount of numbers being infected, the number dying is also very large. By the time this thing is at the one year mark, it will have killed what it takes the flu 12-13 years to.

On top of that, the numbers both in the nation, but especially in the midwest are shooting up. We lost 67 today, 56 just a couple of days ago. We've not seen these numbers before.

I don't see how the media is responsible for the numbers. I do see media of varying persuasions either emphasize it(MSNBC), or deny/ignore it(FOX), depending on who's side they're on. Go to a neutral site like Reuters or AP if you want uncolored news.

this is not true. 12k-61k die in the us from the flu annually. covid deaths this year last i checked in the us was 250k. keep in mind those numbers are not entirely accurate as they are calling deaths of people with covid symptoms and not a positive test as covid at times, which could just be the flu, other virus. thats not a 12-13 year combo amount.

 

[MuckOG]

I'm fine with staying home and being socially distant from others, but I just wish they could find a way to keep kids in athletics and school during this mess. The time they are missing away from their academics, teams and friends is going to negatively affect them for the rest of their lives.

 

[HotDish]

I'm fine with staying home and being socially distant from others, but I just wish they could find a way to keep kids in athletics and school during this mess. The time they are missing away from their academics, teams and friends is going to negatively affect them for the rest of their lives.

I think the case extends to anyone under the age of 30. If you don't have a family of your own this extended limited contact with people is a bit rough. I've gotten to go on a few camping trips, but besides that I rarely have seen my friends outside of our weekly video chat.

Heck I haven't even seen one of good friends who is a teacher. Rightfully so we haven't meet up since I'd hate to give him Covid and vice versa(his school has 23 students/faculty out due to Covid in rural Iowa).

Plus I have no drive to do Bumble or Tinder this summer since I still drop by my parents occasionally and with them working in healthcare. I'd hate to pass on Covid from some 20ish girl that still goes out each week to them and their patients.

 

[57special]

My HS'er said that the social interaction at HS was near non existent anyway as things were. Everyone spaced, wearing masks, and in many cases taught virtually. So there would be a ridiculous scenario where they'd come to school, and go to class, only to stare at a screen anyway. I still see kids hanging out at local places outside of school. Some are in groups of five or more, usually with no masks, and with zero distance between them.

As is, son rolls out of bed in his boxers, checks in on class, fits in a workout, snacks, contacts friends by text/ FaceTime, then does some more training.

It's not perfect, but it's not like there is a good alternative. I do feel
For those with young kids, but many are working from home now, and keep on eye on them.

 

[Minnewildsota]

this is not true. 12k-61k die in the us from the flu annually. covid deaths this year last i checked in the us was 250k. keep in mind those numbers are not entirely accurate as they are calling deaths of people with covid symptoms and not a positive test as covid at times, which could just be the flu, other virus. thats not a 12-13 year combo amount.

While true, the amount of deaths due to flu are without social distancing. We’ve enacted that for COVID. I would say that the death numbers for Covid are likely about accurate if social distancing wasn’t enacted.

I do find it very interesting that we’re one of the few countries that has a major issue with the stipulations enacted and we’re also one of the worst countries in terms of overall numbers.

People course interesting hills to die on, “muh freedums!” Regarding wearing a mask. I could go further on this subject but will leave it there