Official 2015 tank thread III: Edmonton won!! I repeat, Edmonton won!

[MayDay]

Please. We've been actively tanking since 2013/14. So what?

Their streak of bad luck will end with or without Perron.

Also, a linear projection based on the points they currently have just shows that they currently have less points than the Sabres. It doesn't mean that they will continue losing at the exact same rate.

We're nearly at the halfway mark of the season. It's fair to start making 82-game projections.

At this point, Edmonton's losing ways aren't a result of a stretch of bad luck. They just outright suck.

 

[gallagt01]

The best hope IMO is that the Hurricanes start winning and the Sabres can get into 2nd place. And then get some lotto luck to remain top 2.

I just don't think the Oilers are gonna be caught. That team just has so many issues...

What are the lottery odds per draft position?

Finishing second still gives the Sabres a pretty strong crack at McEichel as they'd have both their lotto odds and the Oilers' playing into their favor.

 

[Namejs]

We're nearly at the halfway mark of the season. It's fair to start making 82-game projections.

At this point, Edmonton's losing ways aren't a result of a stretch of bad luck. They just outright suck.

Edmonton having 24 points after 38 games is obviously a result of bad luck. Just like the Sabres having a major win streak last month was lucky.

 

[MayDay]

Edmonton having 24 points after 38 games is obviously a result of bad luck. Just like the Sabres having a major win streak last month was lucky.

Having 24 points after nearly a half season is in the books is the result of sucking, not bad luck.

Bad luck can affect results over a stretch of 5, 7, maybe even 10 games.

But when 40 games are in the books, you are what the standings say you are.

 

[Paxon]

What are the lottery odds per draft position?

Finishing second still gives the Sabres a pretty strong crack at McEichel as they'd have both their lotto odds and the Oilers' playing into their favor.

Something like a 2:1 probability of not getting McDavid or Eichel at 2nd, so it's really not good.

 

[Namejs]

Having 24 points after nearly a half season is in the books is the result of sucking, not bad luck.

Bad luck can affect results over a stretch of 5, 7, maybe even 10 games.

But when 40 games are in the books, you are what the standings say you are.

The nature of probability disagrees with you. Bad luck can affect the result of any single game. If all the games of this season were replayed a 100 times, in most cases the Oilers would have more than 24 points at this point and time.

http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/GMRX6SQ2C?:display_count=no

 

[Savitar]

11 seconds left in the Carolina game

 

[Savitar]

Carolina wins ! Closes the gap to 5 points

 

[Ralonzo]

Sabres lose. Lil' Tank Commander approves.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Unfortunately, Carolina couldn't let Philly tie it up and make it a 3 point game. NJ also looks like they're gonna fall.

Now if Edmonton can beat Colorado (preferably in OT) that would be nice.

 

[Beerz]

Let the tank keep on rolling.


Hopefully by the end of the roadtrip they are a completely demoralized team.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Let the tank keep on rolling.


Hopefully by the end of the roadtrip they are a completely demoralized team.

I wouldn't go that far. You still want the young kids to have the confidence they need to develop.

 

[Beerz]

Apparently Giroux took a skate to the ankle area in the game tonight.

Philadelphia Flyers ‏@NHLFlyers 30s31 seconds ago

INJURY UPDATE: Giroux is probable for tomorrow’s game in New Jersey.

 

[Beerz]

I wouldn't go that far. You still want the young kids to have the confidence they need to develop.

They'll be fine.

 

[RecycledEichel]

They'll be fine.

Especially when they have the leadership of McEichel and Reinhart added to the team next year if they do tank

 

[Husko]

Unfortunately, Carolina couldn't let Philly tie it up and make it a 3 point game. NJ also looks like they're gonna fall.

Now if Edmonton can beat Colorado (preferably in OT) that would be nice.

Philly doesn't worry me for last. Carolina winning was far more important. Colorado doesn't worry me either.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Philadelphia Flyers ‏@NHLFlyers 30s31 seconds ago

INJURY UPDATE: Giroux is probable for tomorrow’s game in New Jersey.

good, that looked really ugly

 

[Milos*]

The nature of probability disagrees with you. Bad luck can affect the result of any single game. If all the games of this season were replayed a 100 times, in most cases the Oilers would have more than 24 points at this point and time.

http://public.tableausoftware.com/shared/GMRX6SQ2C?:display_count=no

[MOD]He's saying theres only so long of stretches you can blame on 'bad luck'.

It's like you flip a coin, each flip is a game. Sure, you can go stretches where you'll get say, 4 heads and 1 tails, but after long stretches, maybe 38 flips for example, in most cases, they should start to even out. All 'runs' of luck come to an end, especially when there are only two options. Win or lose.

Your other problem is selectively thinking this 'bad luck' streak ends now, rather than lasting the entire season. That's optimistic, but is it realistic?

 

[Husko]

[MOD]He's saying theres only so long of stretches you can blame on 'bad luck'.

It's like you flip a coin, each flip is a game. Sure, you can go stretches where you'll get say, 4 heads and 1 tails, but after long stretches, maybe 38 flips for example, in most cases, they should start to even out. All 'runs' of luck come to an end, especially when there are only two options. Win or lose.

Your other problem is selectively thinking this 'bad luck' streak ends now, rather than lasting the entire season. That's optimistic, but is it realistic?

Start to even out, but probability doesn't say you'll get back to 50/50. If, for example, your first 20 flips are tails, your evening out is that probability says you'll finish 60/40.

 

[MayDay]

[MOD]He's saying theres only so long of stretches you can blame on 'bad luck'.

It's like you flip a coin, each flip is a game. Sure, you can go stretches where you'll get say, 4 heads and 1 tails, but after long stretches, maybe 38 flips for example, in most cases, they should start to even out. All 'runs' of luck come to an end, especially when there are only two options. Win or lose.

Your other problem is selectively thinking this 'bad luck' streak ends now, rather than lasting the entire season. That's optimistic, but is it realistic?

Exactly. If a stretch of "bad luck" can last an astonishing 40 games, who's to say it can't last for 60 games, or even 80? Why is he so sure their "luck" will change soon if it has gone on for so long as it is?

My point though, is that you can only point the finger at "bad luck" as an excuse for so long before it starts to wear thin. If you have bad results over 4-5 games it may be bad luck. If you have bad results over 40-50 games, it's probably not bad luck - it probably just means that you suck.

 

[Milos*]

Start to even out, but probability doesn't say you'll get back to 50/50. If, for example, your first 20 flips are tails, your evening out is that probability says you'll finish 60/40.

Yes, but the probability of getting 20 tail flips in a row is 9.53674316x10^-6%. That is incredibly small.

The probability of getting say, 3 tail flips in a row is 12.5%, much more realistic. This is why the point about that 'bad luck' can only be blamed for a shorter amount of period was stressed.

The Oilers problems run far deeper than 'luck', watch their play this season and that'll be quite clear, statistics or no statistics.

 

[Namejs]

It's like you flip a coin, each flip is a game. Sure, you can go stretches where you'll get say, 4 heads and 1 tails, but after long stretches, maybe 38 flips for example, in most cases, they should start to even out. All 'runs' of luck come to an end, especially when there are only two options. Win or lose.

You repeated what I just said and then presented it as a criticism of what I said. I suggest you read my original post another time.

Yes, but the probability of getting 20 tail flips in a row is 9.53674316x10^-6%. That is incredibly small.

The probability of getting say, 3 tail flips in a row is 12.5%, much more realistic. This is why the point about that 'bad luck' can only be blamed for a shorter amount of period was stressed.

The Oilers problems run far deeper than 'luck', watch their play this season and that'll be quite clear, statistics or no statistics.

Holy straw man.

Why on Earth did you bring up 20 tail flips in a row? Has anyone argued that the Oilers should've won 20 games in a row? Have they lost 20 in a row? Who are you even talking to right now?

The Oilers current record has been influenced by bad luck. If you get 20 tail flips out of 30 throws, arguing that the person is going to continue getting tails 2 out of 3 times is ludicrous.

Making a linear projection based on their current amount of points therefore is not meaningful.

Your other problem is selectively thinking this 'bad luck' streak ends now, rather than lasting the entire season. That's optimistic, but is it realistic?

You just made 2 logically conflicting statements ("all luck or bad luck runs out" and yet "I'm optimistic by assuming that it will").

 

[Namejs]

Exactly. If a stretch of "bad luck" can last an astonishing 40 games, who's to say it can't last for 60 games, or even 80? Why is he so sure their "luck" will change soon if it has gone on for so long as it is?

My point though, is that you can only point the finger at "bad luck" as an excuse for so long before it starts to wear thin. If you have bad results over 4-5 games it may be bad luck. If you have bad results over 40-50 games, it's probably not bad luck - it probably just means that you suck.

No one here has implied that the Oilers have been unlucky in every single game they've played.

 

[Milos*]

You repeated what I just said and then presented it as a criticism of what I said. I suggest you read my original post another time.




Holy straw man.

Why on Earth did you bring up 20 tail flips in a row? Has anyone argued that the Oilers should've won 20 games in a row? Have they lost 20 in a row? Who are you even talking to right now?

The Oilers current record has been influenced by bad luck. If you get 20 tail flips out of 30 throws, arguing that the person is going to continue getting tails 2 out of 3 times is ludicrous.

Making a linear projection based on their current amount of points therefore is not meaningful

You just made 2 logically conflicting statements ("all luck or bad luck runs out" and yet "I'm optimistic by assuming that it will").

There was no logical conflict, the last statement was using your train of thought, which I find irrelevant... Key word was 'now' in "assuming that it will end now". The 20 flips was in regards to another poster, scroll up and read the quoted post before replying.

"The Oilers current record has been influenced by bad luck. If you get 20 tail flips out of 30 throws, arguing that the person is going to continue getting tails 2 out of 3 times is ludicrous."

Once again, results in hockey are not primarily based on luck. They're based on suck, which the Oilers have a lot of at the moment. You keep on trying to explain their woes in terms of this 'luck' concept when it simply isn't working.

 

[Namejs]

There was no logical conflict, the last statement was using your train of thought, which I find irrelevant.

"The Oilers current record has been influenced by bad luck. If you get 20 tail flips out of 30 throws, arguing that the person is going to continue getting tails 2 out of 3 times is ludicrous."

Once again, results in hockey are not primarily based on luck. They're based on suck, which the Oilers have a lot of at the moment. You keep on trying to explain their woes in terms of this 'luck' concept when it simply isn't working.

So you're saying that luck doesn't actually have a tendency to normalize in the long-term? In that case you should probably take an introductory course in Probability Theory.

Luck plays a role in any sport. Every NHL team currently stands somewhere in a hypothetical bell curve distribution of luck and the Oilers are at the lower end of it.

I'm not trying to explain their woes with bad luck, I'm trying to explain the fact that them having 24 points (and not 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30 or 31) has a lot to do with bad luck and that in most cases they will win at a higher rate in the remainder of the season than they have done so far.