Official 2015 tank thread III: Edmonton won!! I repeat, Edmonton won!

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Milos*

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So you're saying that luck doesn't actually have a tendency to normalize in the long-term? In that case you should probably take an introductory course in Probability Theory.

And it seems you should take an introductory course in reading comprehension, for this was in my first response...

It's like you flip a coin, each flip is a game. Sure, you can go stretches where you'll get say, 4 heads and 1 tails, but after long stretches, maybe 38 flips for example, in most cases, they should start to even out.

Even out is a synonym for normalize, by the way.
 

Namejs

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Dec 24, 2011
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And it seems you should take an introductory course in reading comprehension, for this was in my first response...



Even out is a synonym for normalize, by the way.
That's exactly what I already said in my first post.

You quoted me, rephrased my words and then presented it as a criticism directed at me. :laugh:
 

Milos*

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That's exactly what I already said in my first post.

You quoted me, rephrased my words and then presented it as a criticism directed at me. :laugh:

Once again, you're not getting it. Maybe it's hopeless but I don't know how many times it has to be said, you're using luck as an argument to explain their record, and saying it's going to turn around. I'm saying their luck has nothing to do with it, as they would have 'normalized' by now, and they're just a terribly built and awfully coached team. And that's fact.

:help:
 

Husko

Registered User
Jun 30, 2006
15,285
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This thread is off the rails.

Can we get back to talking about how Sabres lost, Canes won, and Edmonton is down ONLY ONE going into the third???
 

Namejs

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Dec 24, 2011
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Once again, you're not getting it. Maybe it's hopeless but I don't know how many times it has to be said, you're using luck as an argument to explain their record, and saying it's going to turn around. I'm saying their luck has nothing to do with it, as they would have 'normalized' by now, and they're just a terribly built and awfully coached team. And that's fact.

:help:
I'm not saying it's going to turn around. I'm saying that they are likely to increase their win rate (the Oilers have currently won 8 out of 38 games). I'm also saying that the Sabres chances of finishing 30th are a lot higher than 0%.

If you think that the luck element normalizes to the point of being meaningless between all the teams after 38 games, you are absolutely clueless and have no idea what you're talking about.

Just one simple example:
Largenumbers.svg
 

Milos*

Guest
I'm not saying it's going to turn around. I'm saying that they are likely to increase their win rate (the Oilers have currently won 8 out of 38 games). I'm also saying that the Sabres chances of finishing 30th are a lot higher than 0%.

If you think that the luck element normalizes to the point of being meaningless between all the teams after 38 games, you are absolutely clueless and have no idea what you're talking about.

Just one simple example:
Largenumbers.svg

No, Im saying bad luck is not going to take them to 30th place 38 games in, where they've been for several weeks. If you really think that's the driving reason behind their standing then it really shows how little you know. It's a shame a dice's play, skill, effort, composition and coaching doesn't affect the outcome, right?
 

Namejs

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Dec 24, 2011
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No, Im saying bad luck is not going to take them to 30th place 38 games in, where they've been for several weeks. If you really think that's the driving reason behind their standing then it really shows how little you know. It's a shame a dice's play, skill, effort, composition and coaching doesn't affect the outcome, right?
Quote me where I've said that bad luck is the driving reason behind their standing.
 

Savitar

AKA Jose
Jan 15, 2013
2,184
6
Confirmed Edmonton going to overtime so they get a point and Colorado does too! It will be a bonus if the Oilers win
 

Namejs

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Dec 24, 2011
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Confirmed Edmonton going to overtime so they get a point and Colorado does too! It will be a bonus if the Oilers win
Sabres lose, Canes win, Avs and Oilers go to OT. That's almost the perfect scenario for the tank so far. :)
 

Sabre the Win

Joke of a Franchise
Jun 27, 2013
12,268
4,956
colorado win but boy is edmonton ever bad and scrivens is too anxious flopping every direction in the shootout for easy goals but i cant stress bad enough, the defensemen dumped the puck in then skated to the bench as they passed back to the blueline to realize no defensemen was there.
 

couture23

Registered User
Jun 23, 2012
13,396
705
Toronto
Buffalo: 14-22-3 for 31 points

Edmonton: 8-22-9 for 25 points

This is why the loser point sucks for us. Those six extra meaningless wins man..****
 

BakedBuffalo

**** run 4 Chychrun
Oct 29, 2014
752
0
Buffalo, NY
Honestly I'm just gonna ride the wave. We had a little scare but i think the tank is right back on track. We've been bad, now we go on a road trip.. Carolina got Staal back and they are looking better. Edmonton... i got nothing.. they're the Oilers so honestly who knows. Arizona could be scary, and as some have also mentioned, the Devils could move out some veterans and be absolutely terrible. They have no offense. But right now feeling pretty good about the tank.
 

La Cosa Nostra

Caporegime
Jun 25, 2009
14,074
2,336
Don't be too excited. We have lost a lot of games lately and been on a bad streak and we are still SIX points up on Edmonton....our only hope is that we at least finish 29th and either we win the lottery :)lol::lol::lol:) or the Oilers retain #1. I really despise Edmonton getting any of McEichel in any scenario but if it means we get Eichel I'll be fine with them getting McDavid undeservingly. Crazy That the big win streak where Enroth completely overachieved is gonna **** us for the next decade if we finish 4 or worse (or is it "better?Anyway picking 4-30)
 

MayDay

Registered User
Oct 21, 2005
12,661
1,146
Pleasantville, NY
I'm not saying it's going to turn around. I'm saying that they are likely to increase their win rate (the Oilers have currently won 8 out of 38 games). I'm also saying that the Sabres chances of finishing 30th are a lot higher than 0%.

If you think that the luck element normalizes to the point of being meaningless between all the teams after 38 games, you are absolutely clueless and have no idea what you're talking about.

Just one simple example:
Largenumbers.svg

You still don't get it.

Hockey is fundamentally different than coin flips or dice-rolls, so they are really bad analogies.

Hockey is primarily a game of skill, not of chance. A hockey team is not a coin. There is no law of mathematics that says a team has to win 50% of its games over the long term. A hockey game isn't a 50-50 proposition; it will be won by the better team the majority of the time.

Luck is a minor factor in hockey. It can influence results over a short span of games. Over a half-season, however, it is a negligible factor. If you suck after half a season, it's because you suck, not because you've been unlucky.
 

Namejs

Registered User
Dec 24, 2011
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You still don't get it.

Hockey is fundamentally different than coin flips or dice-rolls, so they are really bad analogies.

Hockey is primarily a game of skill, not of chance. A hockey team is not a coin. There is no law of mathematics that says a team has to win 50% of its games over the long term. A hockey game isn't a 50-50 proposition; it will be won by the better team the majority of the time.

Luck is a minor factor in hockey. It can influence results over a short span of games. Over a half-season, however, it is a negligible factor. If you suck after half a season, it's because you suck, not because you've been unlucky.
You don't understand the fundamental nature of probability. You don't understand the concept of probability distribution.

This has nothing to do with a 50-50 split or coin flips or die rolls. Those are analogies that help explain probability, which is called 'luck' when talking about sports.

Luck is a factor everywhere. It influences every result.

I repeat it the 3rd time, no one here has implied that the Oilers actually aren't a bad team. They are a bad team, which is the driving factor behind their poor record this season, but you have to understand that them having 24 and exactly 24 points is not divine fate and in most cases they would not have 24 points, if the games were replayed a 1000 times in a hypothetical thought experiment. Are you not capable of realizing that?
 

UnleashRasmus

Rasmus has gone Super Saiyan VI!
Apr 15, 2012
6,473
1,932
Nashville Tennessee
The Oilers are beyond terrible and it only further shows that their management group while trying to fix things, has no clue what they're doing. EXAMPLE: Keeping Draisaitl and up until a week ago saying they were keeping him, only to send him down to the WHL and not allow him to go participate at the IIHF World Tournament. What a joke. I'm not bating, I just find the situation horrible. For this team with as many high level picks as they've had only to be again at the bottom....should not be rewarded. Buffalo at least has made leaps and bounds to correct the matter while "tanking". End rant.
 

Weltschmerz

Front Running Fan
Apr 22, 2007
4,890
3,041
The Oilers are beyond terrible and it only further shows that their management group while trying to fix things, has no clue what they're doing. EXAMPLE: Keeping Draisaitl and up until a week ago saying they were keeping him, only to send him down to the WHL and not allow him to go participate at the IIHF World Tournament. What a joke. I'm not bating, I just find the situation horrible. For this team with as many high level picks as they've had only to be again at the bottom....should not be rewarded. Buffalo at least has made leaps and bounds to correct the matter while "tanking". End rant.

Someone said it was Draisaitl's decision not to play in world juniors, not sure if that was accurate but wouldn't surprise with the bad german team.

And the oilers are still bad, but at least they look better than 10 days ago, when everything seemed hopeless. Maybe they can build some momentum from this coaching change, or it's only a short effect, who knows.
 
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