Official 2015 tank thread III: Edmonton won!! I repeat, Edmonton won!

[Zip15]

I suppose the question of if Carolina or Edmonton continue to wallow or if they hit a small run and draw the Sabres close again.

We'll know a lot more by Christmas Eve. Sabres' next five:

12/15 vs OTT
12/16 at WPG
12/20 vs COL
12/21 at BOS
12/23 at DET

If we don't make hay in those two home games, we aren't going to put up many points in that stretch. Both seconds of the back-to-backs (at WPG, at BOS) are road games in which the home team has off the night before.

If they only get 1 or 2 pts, the 26- and 27-point teams should pull away a little bit and Carolina, Arizona, and Edmonton should close the gap a bit.

 

[Ralonzo]

Things are going to kick into gear soon. I asked Santa for an Edmonton Oiler 20 game unbeaten streak.

Santa comes early. Eakins is out.

 

[sjci]

Today is the one-month anniversary of the beginning of an improbable streak by the Sabres that has seen them win nine of their last twelve games.

What follows is a statistical breakdown of this past month. What some of these eye-opening numbers will show is that Buffalo will have to play much better hockey for this success to be sustainable.

Date|Opponent|Score|Shots
Nov 15|TOR|6-2|35-34
Nov 18|SJS|4-1|14-30
Nov 22|@WAS|2-1|26-44
Nov 26|WPG|1-2|20-26
Nov 28|MTL|2-1|25-31
Nov 29|@MTL|4-3 SO|26-44
Dec 2|TAM|2-1 SO|22-27
Dec 4|@TAM|0-5|13-35
Dec 6|@FLA|2-3|28-37
Dec 9|LAK|1-0|16-34
Dec 11|CAL|4-3|19-45
Dec 13|FLA|4-3 OT|32-28

Record: 9-3-0 (Home 7-1-0, Away 2-2-0)

1-goal games: 7-2-0

Goals for - against: 30-25 (average 2.5-2.1)

Versus backup goaltenders: 5-0-0

Scoring leaders: Ennis (3g-9a-12p), Girgensons (5-4-9), Moulson (5-4-9), Gionta (4-3-7), Stafford (2-4-6)

Goaltending: 2.06 GAA, .940 save % (Enroth 2.04, .940; Neuvirth 2.16, .938)

Shots on goal for - against: 276-415 (average 23-35)

Special teams: Power play 3-29 (10.3%), Penalty kill 27-33 (81.8%)

It's pretty obvious that a combination of hot goaltending and puck luck have played a large part in the streak. To make the point, there have been 4 games during this run in which Buffalo's opponent more than doubled the Sabres in shots on goal -- Buffalo won 3 of those 4 games.

Enroth has been fantastic but it's a lot to expect of him to keep stopping 94% of his shots.

The Sabres face the Ottawa Senators tonight at First Niagara Center.

http://kuklaskorner.com/tso/comment...success?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

If people still think this is the Sabres doing good and not the result of crazy good dumb luck...

 

[gallagt01]

If people still think this is the Sabres doing good and not the result of crazy good dumb luck...

Are people arguing that the Sabres are playing well?

I'm of the mind that they've been playing much — much — better than they were early in the year. I think that's indisputable no matter what "unsustainable" stats you throw at us.

But they aren't playing well.

Their stretch has been largely the result of hot goaltending and some luck, yes. But to insinuate that they aren't playing better is just wrong.

 

[Beerz]

Are people arguing that the Sabres are playing well?

I'm of the mind that they've been playing much — much — better than they were early in the year. I think that's indisputable no matter what "unsustainable" stats you throw at us.

But they aren't playing well.

Their stretch has been largely the result of hot goaltending and some luck, yes. But to insinuate that they aren't playing better is just wrong.

Nobody is insinuating that at all. The crux comes from the W's not how the team is playing as a whole. They needed to get better because it was a pathetic showing. But that have not been playing well enough to deserve these wins. This is the issue.

 

[stokes84]

If people still think this is the Sabres doing good and not the result of crazy good dumb luck...

They are playing better than the Oilers and Hurricanes, and that is all that matters. And yeah, having a competent goaltender is part of the game and counts towards how you are playing. And while the corsi people will refuse to acknowledge that quality of shot matters, all you have to do is watch a few Oilers games to see that it does. They might not get outshot the way we do, but we don't give up a ton of odd man rushes and glorious opportunities that they do. If Edmonton were in the East, we could contemplate them going on a run, but in the West, it's not going to get much prettier.

 

[joshjull]

They are playing better than the Oilers and Hurricanes, and that is all that matters. And yeah, having a competent goaltender is part of the game and counts towards how you are playing. And while the corsi people will refuse to acknowledge that quality of shot matters, all you have to do is watch a few Oilers games to see that it does. They might not get outshot the way we do, but we don't give up a ton of odd man rushes and glorious opportunities that they do. If Edmonton were in the East, we could contemplate them going on a run, but in the West, it's not going to get much prettier.

All you have to do is look at our last game. The kind of goals we gave up were a frequent occurrence earlier in the year. Goals where our goalies had little to no chance on. We've played better in our end structurally and are making teams work for their scoring chances as opposed to handing them to them as frequently as we did before. Basically giving our goalies a fighting chance to make the saves.

Ironically enough we won against Florida with Enroth getting the kind of goals scored on him he didn't see as much of in the previous run games. He had a .893 save percentage and we outshot the Panthers 32-28 scoring 4 goals. It was the bizarro Sabres.

 

[joshjull]

@ Beerz

What is the first word in your avatar? My old man eyes can't figure it out.

 

[Beerz]

@ Beerz

What is the first word in your avatar? My old man eyes can't figure it out.

I think Summer of Disappointment .. I used it just for the crumbling sand castle tho.. ha

 

[Zip15]

They are playing better than the Oilers and Hurricanes, and that is all that matters. And yeah, having a competent goaltender is part of the game and counts towards how you are playing. And while the corsi people will refuse to acknowledge that quality of shot matters, all you have to do is watch a few Oilers games to see that it does. They might not get outshot the way we do, but we don't give up a ton of odd man rushes and glorious opportunities that they do. If Edmonton were in the East, we could contemplate them going on a run, but in the West, it's not going to get much prettier.

We still give up more than our fair share of great opportunities, including during this win streak. This idea that we get outshot to the degree that we do, and we spend as long as we do in our zone, but don't give up many great chances is a myth that is starting to take on a life of its own. As if we're the first bad possession team to unlock the secret of sagging back around the net and trying to limit chances.

Others have tried it. It doesn't work over the long haul. Not with our possession numbers (not that there has ever been a team with possession numbers as bad as ours, but I digress). Great chances inevitably happen when you spend as much time in your zone as we do.

 

[Eram]

Still just 7 points out of last. We could go 2-8 and EDM goes 5-5 and be pretty much tied with them again.

 

[MayDay]

Still just 7 points out of last.

"Just" 7 points? 7 points is enormous.

If 7 points were nothing to make up, then I would be on the Sabres playoff bandwagon right now, since we are "just" 6 points out of a wildcard spot.

 

[Zip15]

"Just" 7 points? 7 points is enormous.

If 7 points were nothing to make up, then I would be on the Sabres playoff bandwagon right now, since we are "just" 6 points out of a wildcard spot.

It seems daunting right now, but people are seemingly operating under the theory that Edmonton may never win again. Losing 15 out of 16 does that. But they, like a lot of other teams before them, will escape from their death spiral and bask in the glow provided when there is nothing expected of you. They'll start seeing an increase of backup goaltenders, as well.

If we do as poorly as I expect we'll do between now and Christmas, I could see us only three or four points out of last.

 

[gallagt01]

"Just" 7 points? 7 points is enormous.

If 7 points were nothing to make up, then I would be on the Sabres playoff bandwagon right now, since we are "just" 6 points out of a wildcard spot.

With 50-some games to go, seven points really isn't that many. Edmonton will get hot. Carolina will get hot. Buffalo isn't the only bad team capable of putting a little streak together.

We still give up more than our fair share of great opportunities, including during this win streak. This idea that we get outshot to the degree that we do, and we spend as long as we do in our zone, but don't give up many great chances is a myth that is starting to take on a life of its own. As if we're the first bad possession team to unlock the secret of sagging back around the net and trying to limit chances.

Others have tried it. It doesn't work over the long haul. Not with our possession numbers (not that there has ever been a team with possession numbers as bad as ours, but I digress). Great chances inevitably happen when you spend as much time in your zone as we do.

It seems daunting right now, but people are seemingly operating under the theory that Edmonton may never win again. Losing 15 out of 16 does that. But they, like a lot of other teams before them, will escape from their death spiral and bask in the glow provided when there is nothing expected of you. They'll start seeing an increase of backup goaltenders, as well.

If we do as poorly as I expect we'll do between now and Christmas, I could see us only three or four points out of last.

Then why are you so upset that Buffalo's managed to win some games of late?

 

[Clock]

Still just 7 points out of last. We could go 2-8 and EDM goes 5-5 and be pretty much tied with them again.

Yeah, but that's still a rainbows and unicorns scenario at this point.

 

[Zip15]

Then why are you so upset that Buffalo's managed to win some games of late?

Teams can beat percentages for an extended period. It depends on the definition of long-haul. But, in this case, they can beat the percentages for long enough to knock them out of McEichel territory. That's where my frustration comes from. And while I expect that they should do no better than 2 pts (3 pts, max) over the next five, who knows what rabbits they'll pull out of their hind parts. They're a confident team right now.

 

[sjci]

Still just 7 points out of last. We could go 2-8 and EDM goes 5-5 and be pretty much tied with them again.

That's asking a lot...

Those 5 wins for EDM would be almost doubling their current win total this season.
Edm plays Arizona and Dallas in 3 of their next 4 games, so hopefully there's at least some 3 point games in their.

 

[Eram]

That's asking a lot...

Those 5 wins for EDM would be almost doubling their current win total this season.
Edm plays Arizona and Dallas in 3 of their next 4 games, so hopefully theirs at least some 3 point games in their.

Maybe, but there's also loser points which is why it's a lot harder to climb in the standings than to fall.

Using the same next 10 example, we could go 3-7 (+6 points) and EDM goes 4-2-4 (+12 points) and all of a sudden we're just 1 point apart.

In their past 16 games that resulted in just 1 win, 4 were OT losses and 5 were 1 goal losses. Instead of 1-11-4 (assuming they win OT games and close ones go to OT), they could go 5-6-5 and be 9 points higher in the standings. That's a big swing on what essentially boils down to 9 shots that should've been saved or extra shots that could go in. Only 5 of the games they lost by 3 or more goals, meaning the other 11 were somewhat close to winnable.

 

[Johnny HFBOARDS]

Well not sure if your tank will be going very good still, but the Jets have some injuries and and most of the team started the holidays early, Jets have been rotating goalies and looks like you should be playing our sieve Pavs.

Chalk up 2 points, not good news for your tank, sorry.

 

[Ruckus007]

Enroth might not be here four months from now. That's not an unreasonable belief based on the fact that he's an impending UFA taken in conjunction with Murray's stated preference for bigger netminders and his targeting of Neuvirth--who has performed well (.926) since being acquired.

It's not unreasonable to believe that Murray could end up changing his mind and be convinced that Enroth can be the goalie for the transitional period from bad to good, right?

Or it could be Neuvirth, either way it's a positive outcome, right? There are 50+ games of valuable evaluation to go, which I'm at least going to enjoy more than just letting the clock run out on this season like were doing last year.

Come on. He had a few nice starts in losses (at LA, vs FLA spring to mind), but he was getting lit up with some frequency. Over his first 10 starts, he surrendered 4 or more goals on five occasions. Since the start of the streak, he's given up 4 or more just once in 10 games. And on the three occasions, he gave up 3 goals, we're 3-0-0--the opposing goaltenders in those games: Tokarski, Ramo, and Montoya.

He wasn't the same guy early in the season.

It's not clear to me that you're actually disagreeing with my statement that I thought he was "generally playing well."

 

[sjci]

Colorado Avalanche...scrapped together some wins last year when everything pointed to them being a crap team, and made the playoffs only to lose in the 1st round. And look what happened to them this year. They are who the stats say they are. Buffalo is "making a run" this year when every stat says we should be terrible. So yes, cheer this now, but when it all comes crashing down, don't wonder why and don't come saying you wish this happened for McDavid/Eichel.

 

[haseoke39]

Colorado Avalanche...scrapped together some wins last year when everything pointed to them being a crap team, and made the playoffs only to lose in the 1st round. And look what happened to them this year. They are who the stats say they are. Buffalo is "making a run" this year when every stat says we should be terrible. So yes, cheer this now, but when it all comes crashing down, don't wonder why and don't come saying you wish this happened for McDavid/Eichel.

If this were to keep up long enough, you'd have to imagine they could actually regress next season.

 

[joshjull]

Colorado Avalanche...scrapped together some wins last year when everything pointed to them being a crap team, and made the playoffs only to lose in the 1st round. And look what happened to them this year. They are who the stats say they are. Buffalo is "making a run" this year when every stat says we should be terrible. So yes, cheer this now, but when it all comes crashing down, don't wonder why and don't come saying you wish this happened for McDavid/Eichel.

Colorado scrapped some wins together?

They had the 3rd best record in the league. I'm going to make a bold statement and say we will not be 3rd best team in the league.


And I fail to see how that even matters relative to us. Whats the parallel?

 

[haseoke39]

Colorado scrapped some wins together?

They had the 3rd best record in the league. I'm going to make a bold statement and say we will not be 3rd best team in the league.


And I fail to see how that even matters relative to us. Whats the parallel?

It's the whole "the fancy stats say the record is unsustainable" argument. They're an example of a team who beat the odds all season but finally fell back the next.

 

[joshjull]

It's the whole "the fancy stats say the record is unsustainable" argument. They're an example of a team who beat the odds all season but finally fell back the next.

I get that but its not like it means anything long term for them. I thought the entire point of the anger/rage over us winning is missing out on McEichel. There is no such parallel to Colorado's season last year.