Speculation: Off-Season Roster Building/Line Combos Thread

[SaskCanesFan]

I think Svech will be at least solid this year. I think there’s a very strong chance he’ll at least be a second line forward overall and good chance he’s a first line guy. I liked Zadina more before because he does the one thing that we like many teams need more of, score goals. He’s the best sniper in this class to me. Svech seems much more likely to be better all around. It could be like choosing between Hossa or Kucherov, no one’s complaining either way.

At least stats wise, Zadina isn't a better goal scorer though. Pure sniper, sure, but Svech scored at a lot higher rate in a tougher league. He just didn't do it with as many picked corners from the dots.

 

[SaskCanesFan]

Thank you for not starting a new thread. I will not be clicking your link.

I did click the link. Thought, hey it's the dead of summer, why not get some more Canes reading in. Took until TT and Aho split up, Slavin Faulk first pair in the "projected lineups" to remember why you don't click the link. Oops

 

[Unsustainable]

At least stats wise, Zadina isn't a better goal scorer though. Pure sniper, sure, but Svech scored at a lot higher rate in a tougher league. He just didn't do it with as many picked corners from the dots.

Svechnikov scored at the highest pace of any prospect out that leagues

 

[CandyCanes]

Derek Ryan had 38 points last year, and Elias Lindholm had 44.

If Svechnikov plays a full season and scores 40 points I’ll flip a table. We need this guy to be the real thing or we’re going to be screwed very hard for a long time.

Eric Staal only put up 31 pts in 81 games his rookie season. No need to flip a table, temper your expectation. He may or may not need a season to get in the NHL groove. But sure if we’re in year 3 and he hasn’t broke 40+ points than absolutely start flipping those tables. No need to freak out on an 18 year old.

 

[CandyCanes]

I think Svech will be at least solid this year. I think there’s a very strong chance he’ll at least be a second line forward overall and good chance he’s a first line guy. I liked Zadina more before because he does the one thing that we like many teams need more of, score goals. He’s the best sniper in this class to me. Svech seems much more likely to be better all around. It could be like choosing between Hossa or Kucherov, no one’s complaining either way.

Regardless I’ll be watching them both because it’s fun, but my expectations are staying appropriate about Svech. If he hits 40pts it’s a solid start and I’m happy.

If we wanted a pure goal scorer we just gave him up, aka Skinner.

 

[bleedgreen]

And for a bag of pucks.


It’s a good comparison. Though in terms of style I think Zadina is more Kucherov and young Gaborik.

 

[bleedgreen]

At least stats wise, Zadina isn't a better goal scorer though. Pure sniper, sure, but Svech scored at a lot higher rate in a tougher league. He just didn't do it with as many picked corners from the dots.

I’m an eye test guy. Zadina puts it where only elite shooters do, and Svech powers it through. Like I said it’s Hossa vs Kucherov. Both are great. I leaned towards the pure sniper personally but have zero complaints about getting the all around guy who maybe scores just as many in the end.

 

[bleedgreen]

Derek Ryan had 38 points last year, and Elias Lindholm had 44.

If Svechnikov plays a full season and scores 40 points I’ll flip a table. We need this guy to be the real thing or we’re going to be screwed very hard for a long time.

I mean I get it, but this is what I’m talking about. He could be the real thing and still only get 40 this year. It shouldn’t be a disappointment.

 

[NotOpie]

@bleedgreen

 

[Joe McGrath]

I’m not going to write off Svechnikov as an elite player if he scores 40 points but I will be dissapointed. 50 points should be the line for “success”. That’s what Hischer(sp?) scored last year as a center.

It’s going to be tougher for him to accumulate points than other top rookie picks as a wing.

 

[bleedgreen]

@bleedgreen

I failed it...

 

[tarheelhockey]

Eric Staal only put up 31 pts in 81 games his rookie season. No need to flip a table, temper your expectation. He may or may not need a season to get in the NHL groove. But sure if we’re in year 3 and he hasn’t broke 40+ points than absolutely start flipping those tables. No need to freak out on an 18 year old.

I’m an eye test guy. Zadina puts it where only elite shooters do, and Svech powers it through. Like I said it’s Hossa vs Kucherov. Both are great. I leaned towards the pure sniper personally but have zero complaints about getting the all around guy who maybe scores just as many in the end.

In Eric Staal’s rookie year (2004), 4 rookies crossed the 40 point mark:

Michael Ryder, age 23 - 63 points
Marek Zidlicky, age 26 - 53 points
Tuomo Ruutu, age 20 - 44 points
Ryan Malone, age 24 - 43 points

^ note only one of these guys (Ruutu!) was actually a young rookie. The rest were guys who had been over-seasoned in the minors, college, Europe. And even Ruutu had been playing pro in Liiga for years before making the jump.

Last season, 6 rookies crossed the 40 point mark:

Alex DeBrincat, age 20 - 52 points
Nico Hischier, age 19 - 52 points
Pierre-Luc Dubois, age 19 - 48 points
Will Butcher, age 23 - 44 points
Jake Debrusk, age 21 - 43 points
Alex Kerfoot, age 23 - 43 points

^ In that group, the top 3 jumped directly from juniors to the NHL. Butcher and Kerfoot jumped directly from college to the NHL. Kerfoot is the exception, having played 1 season in Providence before moving up.

Year before last, 7 rookies crossed 40 points:

Austin Matthews, age 19 - 69 points
Patrik Laine, age 18 - 64 points
Mitch Marner, age 19 - 61 points
Sebastian Aho, age 19 - 49 points
Matthew Tkachuk, age 19 - 48 points
Zach Werenski, age 19 - 47 points
Brayden Point, age 20 - 40 points

As we know, except for Point these guys all jumped to the NHL at the earliest opportunity. Point is a little guy who fell in the draft, and it took an extra year for Tampa to commit to his ELC.


My point being, the bar has moved for these guys. Top-3 picks of the past several years are expected to come in and impact the game immediately. Guys like Reinhart and Strome who don’t explode out of the box are regarded as missed opportunities (Flyers fans won’t admit it, but they were breathing into a bag about Nolan Patrick at times last season). The expectation is that a star-level talent, which Svechnikov is, will be in that 50-70 point zone.

Aho had 49, as a Canes benchmark. If Svechnikov falls well short of that, it will be a fairly significant concern IMO. We flat-out cannot afford to get a 2nd line player from a lottery pick. We don’t have the talent elsewhere in the lineup to build around some other player, and we’re not going to be picking up more top-3 picks or signing John Tavareses. Svechnikov and Aho are the core talents for the foreseeable future. They need to be actual stars, or we’re looking at a very long stretch of not having the top-end forward talent to contend.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think that’s all fair. I’m just not convinced that just because the bar has been perceivable raised that every kid is going to automatically hit it and I’m not changing my expectations yet. I’m fine if he doesn’t blow the doors off, as long as he’s on the path.

I agree we need a stud. We really needed a stud at center. We didn’t get one so we’ve got Svech. 18 is still 18. He’s strong, for someone that age. I don’t think he’s a Laine kind of shooter but he seems likely to be able to beat nhl goalies. He just seems like an all around very good forward, I just didn’t see enough elite things out of him that make me feel like he’s a slam dunk to produce big right now.

Or Necas for that matter.

They’re the future, and we’ve rarely had success forcing the future to be the present. One game at a time for me.

 

[Joe McGrath]

In Eric Staal’s rookie year (2004), 4 rookies crossed the 40 point mark:

Michael Ryder, age 23 - 63 points
Marek Zidlicky, age 26 - 53 points
Tuomo Ruutu, age 20 - 44 points
Ryan Malone, age 24 - 43 points

^ note only one of these guys (Ruutu!) was actually a young rookie. The rest were guys who had been over-seasoned in the minors, college, Europe. And even Ruutu had been playing pro in Liiga for years before making the jump.

Last season, 6 rookies crossed the 40 point mark:

Alex DeBrincat, age 20 - 52 points
Nico Hischier, age 19 - 52 points
Pierre-Luc Dubois, age 19 - 48 points
Will Butcher, age 23 - 44 points
Jake Debrusk, age 21 - 43 points
Alex Kerfoot, age 23 - 43 points

^ In that group, the top 3 jumped directly from juniors to the NHL. Butcher and Kerfoot jumped directly from college to the NHL. Kerfoot is the exception, having played 1 season in Providence before moving up.

Year before last, 7 rookies crossed 40 points:

Austin Matthews, age 19 - 69 points
Patrik Laine, age 18 - 64 points
Mitch Marner, age 19 - 61 points
Sebastian Aho, age 19 - 49 points
Matthew Tkachuk, age 19 - 48 points
Zach Werenski, age 19 - 47 points
Brayden Point, age 20 - 40 points

As we know, except for Point these guys all jumped to the NHL at the earliest opportunity. Point is a little guy who fell in the draft, and it took an extra year for Tampa to commit to his ELC.


My point being, the bar has moved for these guys. Top-3 picks of the past several years are expected to come in and impact the game immediately. Guys like Reinhart and Strome who don’t explode out of the box are regarded as missed opportunities (Flyers fans won’t admit it, but they were breathing into a bag about Nolan Patrick at times last season). The expectation is that a star-level talent, which Svechnikov is, will be in that 50-70 point zone.

Aho had 49, as a Canes benchmark. If Svechnikov falls well short of that, it will be a fairly significant concern IMO. We flat-out cannot afford to get a 2nd line player from a lottery pick. We don’t have the talent elsewhere in the lineup to build around some other player, and we’re not going to be picking up more top-3 picks or signing John Tavareses. Svechnikov and Aho are the core talents for the foreseeable future. They need to be actual stars, or we’re looking at a very long stretch of not having the top-end forward talent to contend.

I’m confused, if Svech is a dissapointment why won’t the Canes be getting more top 3 picks any time soon?

If he isn’t a top line talent and the goaltending continues to stink a top 3 pick isn’t unlikely at all.

 

[bleedgreen]

Yeah this season has potential in all directions.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

I’m confused, if Svech is a dissapointment why won’t the Canes be getting more top 3 picks any time soon?

If he isn’t a top line talent and the goaltending continues to stink a top 3 pick isn’t unlikely at all.

Because if the Canes miss the playoffs tarheel is done as a Canes fan, so for better or worse this is the last top 3 pick for him.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I’m confused, if Svech is a dissapointment why won’t the Canes be getting more top 3 picks any time soon?

If he isn’t a top line talent and the goaltending continues to stink a top 3 pick isn’t unlikely at all.

Because we’re already committing to prime years on guys like Aho and Teravainen, we’ve already built out the defense to an extreme, the current goaltending situation is going to be extremely short-lived one way or another, and even a mediocre Svechnikov is still an improvement. None of that points toward a tank scenario.

For better or worse, we’re coming out of rebuild mode with this group. The likelihood of this team landing another lottery win is going to end up in the realm of sub-5% per season going forward. Of course we can always hope to score a Kopitar or Giroux with a lower pick, but that’s SOP for every organization. The special opportunity of a lottery win is behind us, Svechnikov is the guy we got.

 

[Joe McGrath]

Because we’re already committing to prime years on guys like Aho and Teravainen, we’ve already built out the defense to an extreme, the current goaltending situation is going to be extremely short-lived one way or another, and even a mediocre Svechnikov is still an improvement. None of that points toward a tank scenario.

For better or worse, we’re coming out of rebuild mode with this group. The likelihood of this team landing another lottery win is going to end up in the realm of sub-5% per season going forward. Of course we can always hope to score a Kopitar or Giroux with a lower pick, but that’s SOP for every organization. The special opportunity of a lottery win is behind us, Svechnikov is the guy we got.

I think you’re focusing way too much attention to one season of one player, but 50 is the target for me, not 40.

I think a top 3 pick is possible this year if the goalies can’t stop a beach ball, or if there are key injuries, or Brind’amour is a terrible coach. If any or all of those things happened would you be surprised?

 

[tarheelhockey]

I think you’re focusing way too much attention to one season of one player, but 50 is the target for me, not 40.

I think a top 3 pick is possible this year if the goalies can’t stop a beach ball, or if there are key injuries, or Brind’amour is a terrible coach. If any or all of those things happened would you be surprised?

I wouldn’t be surprised if the PNC Arena roof fell in, with the way things have gone for this franchise over the past decade.

That said, it’s hard for me to imagine this team being lower than about 20th based on their defensive core alone. The injection of offense they should get from adding Hamilton and Svechnikov (let’s say 50pt) should offset the loss of Skinner, and then the natural progress of Aho and TT should keep them from being completely god-awful like Vancouver or something. The potential for disaster is mostly on the goalies, and I just have to think that one of them shows up and gives us something to work with. If they both play .890 hockey again it would be such an epic facepalm that I don’t want to even think about it.

So a top-3 pick would have to come from lottery balls, which isn’t technically out of the realm of possibility but we’re talking another year of 97% unlikelihood. If I remember my high school math correctly, the odds of hitting two consecutive 3% lotteries are something like 1/100th of 1%.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

So a top-3 pick would have to come from lottery balls, which isn’t technically out of the realm of possibility but we’re talking another year of 97% unlikelihood. If I remember my high school math correctly, the odds of hitting two consecutive 3% lotteries are something like 1/100th of 1%.

You don’t. These are independent events (unless you believe the conspiracy theories that the NHL digs it, though I think Edmonton disproves that several times over).

So if our odds in the next lottery are 3%, the chances for us to win are... 3%, regardless of what happened in the past.

 

[GoldiFox]

With Mrazek/Darling in net, the first 10-20 games of the season could have us rethinking what a possible floor looks like. If one of those two doesn't work out fast then it will get very ugly, very quick. Buffalo/Phoenix has tried for years to throw two low-end backups at the NHL and the results have been hideous.

 

[tarheelhockey]

You don’t. These are independent events (unless you believe the conspiracy theories that the NHL digs it, though I think Edmonton disproves that several times over).

So if our odds in the next lottery are 3%, the chances for us to win are... 3%, regardless of what happened in the past.

I understand that the actual odds of the lottery are 3%, in the same sense that the odds of every independent coin flip in a sequence are 50%. If you’ve had tails 10 times in a row, the odds of tails on the next flip are still 50%.

But the odds of a sequence producing multiple longshot events are vanishingly small. In terms of building a roster across multiple seasons, the chance of hitting multiple lotteries from the ~20th range is so small as to be effectively non existent from a planning point of view. We can set aside that possibility as a total non factor unless we think this team is getting significantly worse before it gets any better.

 

[MinJaBen]

If they both play .890 hockey again it would be such an epic facepalm that I don’t want to even think about it.

Start thinking about it...

 

[Chan790]

Start thinking about it...

Criminy ****, some of you guys are unbearably negative. I'd say it's just about impossible for either Darling or Mrazek, let alone both, to be as bad as they were last year. It's not like we need them to be good, or league-average...they just need to be mediocre instead of bad.

It's fine with me if everybody around the NHL wants to underestimate our goaltending going into next season. It makes them easier to catch off-guard and beat.

 

[Lempo]

Yeah this season has potential in all directions.

You make it sound like the potential is mostly potential energy on the ledge of a very high drop.