Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Pt II: It's the off-season in November!... Wait. That's normal for baseball.

[Discoverer]

In 2019, Verdugo put up 3.2 war over 106 games with the Dodgers as a 23 year old (4.89 war/162 games)

Followed that up with 1.9 war over 53 games with the Red Sox last season (5.81 war/162 games) and finished 12th in MVP voting.

The guy is entering his age 25 season next year. If Verdugo continues his development I don't see any reason why he can't be a 4-5+ war player in his prime assuming full health.

He CAN be that player, it's just not likely. It's about exactly as likely as Biggio or Gurriel or Teoscar being a 5+ WAR player going forward: they've shown the ability over the course of a year or so, but that doesn't mean it's what we should expect going forward.

 

[phillipmike]

Davidi: I think the Jays are legitimately on LeMahieu, I think they’re legitimately on Springer, legitimately on Brantley… It’s pretty quiet around Realmuto, but I think that’s genuine too

 

[hoc123]

 

[SDig14]

Feel bad for Biggio and Vlad if they miss on DJ and sign Wong. I feel Biggio will struggle defensively at 3rd and could distract him from what he does well and also eliminates potential for Vlad to move back. Unless their plan wasn't DJ at 3rd but at 2nd and moving Biggio either way.

It would just be nice to let Biggio play a season in one spot and let him improve defensively.

 

[Puckstuff]

I'll take Kolten Wong over both Villar+Shaw. That's how I view that type of move.

If the ask for Lindor is some insane price where we have to give up core pieces it's probably wiser to go after a Kolten Wong type player this year. For example I'd rather Gurriel, all of our prospects and Kolten Wong over say only 1 year of Lindor (unless the price for Lindor is more reasonable like a package around Tellez, Hiraldo and Moreno).

But in the case Lindor does cost a major piece then Wong would be amazing. We could have a Bichette-Wong up the middle which would be insane together defensively but we can still take a shot at Lindor next year (or someone else) when we have more clarity on how Bo is at short.

 

[BAM]

He CAN be that player, it's just not likely. It's about exactly as likely as Biggio or Gurriel or Teoscar being a 5+ WAR player going forward: they've shown the ability over the course of a year or so, but that doesn't mean it's what we should expect going forward.

I mean Verdugo has been better than Biggio (4.6war) , Gurriel (1.5war) and Teoscar (2.5 war) over 2019 and 2020 despite being the youngest of that group and on a rebuilding team with the Red Sox.

 

[GermanJay]

I mean Verdugo has been better than Biggio (4.6war) , Gurriel (1.5war) and Teoscar (2.5 war) over 2019 and 2020 despite being the youngest of that group and on a rebuilding team with the Red Sox.

Where are you getting these numbers?

Fangraphs has for 19 & 20:

Verdugo 3.8 WAR
Biggio 3.9 WAR
Guerriel 3 WAR
Hernandez 2.8 WAR

 

[Discoverer]

I mean Verdugo has been better than Biggio (4.6war) , Gurriel (1.5war) and Teoscar (2.5 war) over 2019 and 2020 despite being the youngest of that group and on a rebuilding team with the Red Sox.

I don't know why being on a rebuilding team would have any impact either way, but Verdugo played two thirds of his games the last two years on the best team in baseball... so...

Regardless, Biggio and Verdugo have nearly identical value numbers the last two years. Do you think Biggio is a ~5 WAR player too? Gurriel and Teoscar have both been near a 5 WAR pace since been called up from Buffalo last season.

Again, a player doing something for one season doesn't mean he's likely to do it again, let alone it being the expectation each year. Did you really think Verdugo is one of the 20-30 best position players in baseball?

 

[BAM]

I don't know why being on a rebuilding team would have any impact either way, but Verdugo played two thirds of his games the last two years on the best team in baseball... so...

Regardless, Biggio and Verdugo have nearly identical value numbers the last two years. Do you think Biggio is a ~5 WAR player too? Gurriel and Teoscar have both been near a 5 WAR pace since been called up from Buffalo last season.

Again, a player doing something for one season doesn't mean he's likely to do it again, let alone it being the expectation each year. Did you really think Verdugo is one of the 20-30 best position players in baseball?

How are they near identical to Verdugo when they're older and performed worse? LOL

 

[BAM]

Where are you getting these numbers?

Fangraphs has for 19 & 20:

Verdugo 3.8 WAR
Biggio 3.9 WAR
Guerriel 3 WAR
Hernandez 2.8 WAR

Oh I used baseball reference

 

[TheBeastCoast]

At the end of the day I think there is a pretty massive difference between being able to put up a 5 win season, which Verdugo has the ability to do. And being a 5 win player, which in my mind being a 5 win player means that isn't your career year that is what is expected from you year in year out during your prime. Verdugo projects comfortably as a 2.5-3 win player. He is essentially a tick up on Gurriel value wise.

 

[Bjindaho]

Here's my dream offseason

Sign Realmuto 30M per
Trade Jansen/Kirk, Grichuk, Kay/Hatch, + for Snell
Sign Springer 25M per
Trade Roark, the other of Kay/Hatch, Martinez, plus for Lindor and Carrasco

 

[phillipmike]

 

[SDig14]

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

How are they near identical to Verdugo when they're older and performed worse? LOL

Biggio - 159 games, 119 wRC+, 3.9 fWAR
Verdugo - 159 games, 118 wRC+, 3.8 fWAR

Almost identical. And yeah, Biggio is a whole year older. Biggio has more power, walks, and baserunning value, Verdugo has better Ks, a more BABIP-reliant profile, and more defensive value. But overall... nearly identical.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Report: Springer giving 'serious thought' to playing for Blue Jays https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2061599

Sign Springer and Wong.
Trade Grichuk + mid tier pitching prospect for a #3-4 SP who has similar money coming back, maybe one year shorter term?

 

[Jozay]

Mets vs Jays for Springer

 

[TopChedder]

Mets vs Jays for Springer

Which means that we will soon here "Springer did seriously consider the Jays" but the lure of NY was just too much.

 

[AllDay28]

Jays have “so much money” and gonna get nothing. Typical.

 

[Jozay]

The article also says the Mets are after McCann.

Meanwhile, sources outside the organization see the Mets’ interest in free agent catcher James McCann as potentially serious. At the moment, the Mets are after McCann more than J.T. Realmuto.

 

[BigBlu]

Here's my dream offseason

Sign Realmuto 30M per
Trade Jansen/Kirk, Grichuk, Kay/Hatch, + for Snell
Sign Springer 25M per
Trade Roark, the other of Kay/Hatch, Martinez, plus for Lindor and Carrasco

Not wise to trade Kirk. He's basically free and not near his peak value.

Let's take a cue from the Nats and hold firm on our best prospects.

As much as I like Jansen, I'd part with him in the right deal.

 

[phillipmike]

Hypothetical trades from the Athletic:

A Pirates-Blue Jays trade that solves problems for both teams

Trade 1:
Jays get: Joe Musgrove
Pirates get: Gabriel Moreno and Dasan Brown

Five fake trades for one real ace: How to get Blake Snell

Trade 2:
Jays get: Blake Snell
Rays get: Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Simeon Woods Richardson, and Alejandro Kirk

GET READY TO FALL OUT OF YOUR CHAIR

Constructing hypothetical Lance Lynn trades between Rangers & Blue Jays or Mets

Trade 3:
Jays get: Lance Lynn and either Rafael Montero or Joely Rodriguez
Rangers get: Orelvis Martinez and either SWR or Alex Manoah

The Musgrove trade isnt bad from a value perspective. Moreno was just added to the 40 man roster and he is blocked by Jansen, Kirk, McGuire and maybe Adams. That being said, i use Moreno in another trade and just sign a similar free agent for nothing but money.

Three years of Snell is enticing especially if we could get a bat like Brantely to replace Gurriel. And what if we added Bauer too? Snell-Bauer-Ryu-Pearson? Yikes

I wouldnt trade one of Martinex, SWR, or Manoah for 1 year of Lynn plus Montero or Rodriguez so i wouldnt entertain trading 2 of them. Again, i think i can find a pitcher comparable to Lynn on the market for nothing but money.

 

[phillipmike]