Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

[Waterfowlist]

I was thinking about the Tua situation this afternoon and there is zero chance they don't have him playing this Sunday. Just think about the sequence of events that have already transpired...

1) clearly concussed in the bills game, they are either grossly negligent missing the obvious concussion symptoms or they are incredibly gullible to believe him that he had no symptoms
2) not only did they "miss" the concussion, they sent him back out there 20 minutes later to finish a meaningless week 3 game
3) next, they lie about it being a "back" injury and trot him out there the following week. Result? Concussion #2 and not one they could hide due to his gross symptoms the whole world watched
4) they held him out a few weeks and when the season was falling apart they rushed him back again. And now we are on concussion #3.

No way they sit him in this playoff game. The NFL and that team in particular has demonstrated time and time again that they don't care about Tua's future, just their own.

 

[missingmika]

The thing is that what it takes to be a solid coordinator is not what it takes to be a good head coach.

Mike Tomlin has 15 winning seasons and a SB win with the Steelers. He was hired after his first season as a coordinator.

Dorsey has a couple of unique things on his resume when it comes to interviewing for head coaching openings. He has time as a pro scout with the Panthers prior to becoming their QB coach. And he spent a year in the FIU athletic department in 2018 between his time in Carolina and his time in Buffalo.

You also have Daboll looking good as the head coach with the Giants and I think that really helps Dorsey's case, too.

McD’s coaching tree has like 2

I was thinking about the Tua situation this afternoon and there is zero chance they don't have him playing this Sunday. Just think about the sequence of events that have already transpired...

1) clearly concussed in the bills game, they are either grossly negligent missing the obvious concussion symptoms or they are incredibly gullible to believe him that he had no symptoms
2) not only did they "miss" the concussion, they sent him back out there 20 minutes later to finish a meaningless week 3 game
3) next, they lie about it being a "back" injury and trot him out there the following week. Result? Concussion #2 and not one they could hide due to his gross symptoms the whole world watched
4) they held him out a few weeks and when the season was falling apart they rushed him back again. And now we are on concussion #3.

No way they sit him in this playoff game. The NFL and that team in particular has demonstrated time and time again that they don't care about Tua's future, just their own.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I don’t care if Tua plays or not. Dolphins aren’t winning

 

[Husko]

Is there even enough time for Tua to clear before the game? The whole point of the protocol is you can't go from step 0 to step 5 overnight.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Is there even enough time for Tua to clear before the game? The whole point of the protocol is you can't go from step 0 to step 5 overnight.

They'll just call it a back injury, duh.

 

[Dirty Dog]

Is there even enough time for Tua to clear before the game? The whole point of the protocol is you can't go from step 0 to step 5 overnight.

I think people have cleared it pretty quickly in the past. Didn’t taron Johnson only practice on Friday before his game last week?

Plus, Tua could only have one step left I imagine

 

[sabresfan129103]

Is there even enough time for Tua to clear before the game? The whole point of the protocol is you can't go from step 0 to step 5 overnight.

The NFL doesn't GAF. He's definitely going to play. We'll hear about how some unaffiliated doctor cleared him so they can absolve themselves of blame.

 

[misterchainsaw]

I think people have cleared it pretty quickly in the past. Didn’t taron Johnson only practice on Friday before his game last week?

Plus, Tua could only have one step left I imagine

Don't think Johnson was ever officially diagnosed with a concussion. Morse was back in two weeks though?

Apparently Tua's state was bad enough (memory loss) where doctors stepped in and told Miami coaches they couldn't talk to him about football at all. At some point there are doctors involved here so I wouldn't be that surprised to see him sit.

Tua also has at least 3 steps to clear. He hasn't been cleared to step on the practice field yet.

 

[Selanne00008]

Putting a side Tua's future health. Heck maybe we want him to play. Look what he did after he was concussed a couple weeks ago. 3 picks in the 4th quarter was it?

 

[Jim Bob]

Is there even enough time for Tua to clear before the game? The whole point of the protocol is you can't go from step 0 to step 5 overnight.

He has been in stage 3. He needs to get to stage 4 to practice. It will be interesting to see if that happens today and he is at practice or not.

 

[Mike McDermott]

He has been in stage 3. He needs to get to stage 4 to practice. It will be interesting to see if that happens today and he is at practice or not.

Here are the stages for anyone that, like me doesn’t know them.

https://static.www.nfl.com/image/upload/v1629471746/league/umfva5wnr32ozmukz5jd.pdf

 

[Dubi Doo]

He has been in stage 3. He needs to get to stage 4 to practice. It will be interesting to see if that happens today and he is at practice or not.

I thought it wasn't specific on what stage he was in only that we know he's still in the first three stages?

 

[Jim Bob]

I thought it wasn't specific on what stage he was in only that we know he's still in the first three stages?

I was going off of what I heard on one of the podcasts I listened to this morning. I am guessing it was Joe Marino in the Locked On Bills podcast.

 

[Mike McDermott]

Not surprising but good to see

 

[brian_griffin]

Don't think Johnson was ever officially diagnosed with a concussion. Morse was back in two weeks though?

Apparently Tua's state was bad enough (memory loss) where doctors stepped in and told Miami coaches they couldn't talk to him about football at all. At some point there are doctors involved here so I wouldn't be that surprised to see him sit.

Tua also has at least 3 steps to clear. He hasn't been cleared to step on the practice field yet.

To be fair to Tua re: the memory loss, it may have been (before the Jets game this past weekend) the Dolphins asked Tua when was the last time they won a game.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

 

[Fezzy126]

One thing about the screen game that I heard either Joe Marino or one of the Cover 1 guys mention lately is that Josh Allen’s run threat makes the screen game less effective because LBs and DBs need to keep eyes in the backfield more than with pocket QBs. And that lets them read and react quicker to screen plays.

Makes sense, that's not something I had given much thought to.

Also interesting that after our discussion touched on Davis as the #2 guy, the Cover 1 guys did a breakdown about Davis.

 

[TehDoak]

Comment on Bills 2023 schedule:

1. 10 games (5 home, 5 away) against 2022 playoff teams. PHI, DAL, NYG, MIAx2, CIN, JAX, TB, KC, LAC
2. 10 games (4 home, 6 away) against 2022 teams with 0.500 or better records (remove TB Bucs, add WAS Commanders)
3. 2 games against the 8-9 Pats.
4. 2 games against the 7-10 Jets, who might be the best 10-loss team the NFL has ever had and are a decent QB away (Mike White?, Mayfield, Carr, other) from contending given their defense.
5. only 2 games (both at home) against teams with </= 6 wins (LV, DEN)
6. 9 home games, assuming no weather events move the location.
7. Their road schedule looks particularly daunting.

Bills 2023 opponents' 2022 winning percentage was 0.542, which is 7th in the NFL (the top 8 teams are the NFC & AFC East teams).
The 0.542 win % would have been the 3rd-toughest schedule this season.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.

It's pretty futile looking at strength of schedule even before the season opens. KC was supposed to have a stupidly hard schedule because the AFC west was supposed to be lights out with Russell Wilson and Adams.

 

[Jim Bob]

Makes sense, that's not something I had given much thought to.

Also interesting that after our discussion touched on Davis as the #2 guy, the Cover 1 guys did a breakdown about Davis.

I think the Davis conversation can be summed up with Bruce Nolan's definition that disappoint=expecations-reality.

The thing with Davis is that he set a career record for yards and it was 200 yds better than his rookie year.

He tied his career high of 7 TDs.

I think the issue is that some people wanted even more from Davis and to be a Waddle to Diggs' Hill.

To go with an old school reference, Davis is like Alvin Harper to Diggs' Michael Irving.

800 yards and 7 TDs for a secondary boundary WR that is the deep threat isn't bad.

I think the bigger issue for the offense is getting an elite slot WR. They hoped that Crowder could be that guy. They hoped that McKenzie could be that guy. They have hope that Shakir might develop into that guy.

But, if they were able to get a 1st or 2nd round WR that can replace Davis after 2023, that is far from a bad idea. They need to continue to add weapons around Josh.

 

[buffalowing88]

I don't think the blame lies exclusively at the feet of the NFL for Tua playing or not playing. It's a little simplistic to just say every single bad thing that happens in the league is a result of the higher-ups and not just the innate fact that it's a. a violent sport and b. a sport where the players are going to lie if need be in order to get back on the field.

Tua's camp has always pushed him to get right back out there and I know his dad is a POS who would likely challenge his "toughness" for not playing. This goes beyond just the NFL, it's a cultural issue with the players and the people who are in their camps, too.

With that said, I don't want to see him out there because he's going to lose his career if he gets another concussion this soon and also because he looked pretty damn good in Buffalo last time. With those WRs and our secondary underachieving, it's not as much of a gimme as people think.

 

[Husko]

I think the Davis conversation can be summed up with Bruce Nolan's definition that disappoint=expecations-reality.

The thing with Davis is that he set a career record for yards and it was 200 yds better than his rookie year.

He tied his career high of 7 TDs.

I think the issue is that some people wanted even more from Davis and to be a Waddle to Diggs' Hill.

To go with an old school reference, Davis is like Alvin Harper to Diggs' Michael Irving.

800 yards and 7 TDs for a secondary boundary WR that is the deep threat isn't bad.

I think the bigger issue for the offense is getting an elite slot WR. They hoped that Crowder could be that guy. They hoped that McKenzie could be that guy. They have hope that Shakir might develop into that guy.

But, if they were able to get a 1st or 2nd round WR that can replace Davis after 2023, that is far from a bad idea. They need to continue to add weapons around Josh.

So I've seen this thrown around, but I think it misses one huge piece of context: Davis went from 571 offensive snaps last year to 926 this year. That's a massive increase. His numbers should have gone up substantially more than they did.

Is he a bad player? No. But lack of consistent production out of the number 2 WR slot, partiucarly his trouble getting separation when Diggs is being doubled, has been a huge component of the offensive inconsistencies this year.

 

[Fezzy126]

I think the Davis conversation can be summed up with Bruce Nolan's definition that disappoint=expecations-reality.

The thing with Davis is that he set a career record for yards and it was 200 yds better than his rookie year.

He tied his career high of 7 TDs.

I think the issue is that some people wanted even more from Davis and to be a Waddle to Diggs' Hill.

To go with an old school reference, Davis is like Alvin Harper to Diggs' Michael Irving.

800 yards and 7 TDs for a secondary boundary WR that is the deep threat isn't bad.

I think the bigger issue for the offense is getting an elite slot WR. They hoped that Crowder could be that guy. They hoped that McKenzie could be that guy. They have hope that Shakir might develop into that guy.

But, if they were able to get a 1st or 2nd round WR that can replace Davis after 2023, that is far from a bad idea. They need to continue to add weapons around Josh.

Yeah, and they actually touched on that in the video as well. While everyone is obsessing with a #2 boundary WR, the bigger impact was not having actual #2 WR production from the slot. If they do draft a receiver in the 1st 3 rounds, it'll be interesting to see whether they target a slot or boundary option.

Of course then Turner went on about running Davis out of the slot more often as well, similar to how other teams deploy their receiving TEs. Davis' usage was very predictable all year.

 

[Husko]

Yeah, and they actually touched on that in the video as well. While everyone is obsessing with a #2 boundary WR, the bigger impact was not having actual #2 WR production from the slot. If they do draft a receiver in the 1st 3 rounds, it'll be interesting to see whether they target a slot or boundary option.

Of course then Turner went on about running Davis out of the slot more often as well, similar to how other teams deploy their receiving TEs. Davis' usage was very predictable all year.

Especially since he's such a good blocker, this would be refreshing to see

 

[Jim Bob]

So I've seen this thrown around, but I think it misses one huge piece of context: Davis went from 571 offensive snaps last year to 926 this year. That's a massive increase. His numbers should have gone up substantially more than they did.

Is he a bad player? No. But lack of consistent production out of the number 2 WR slot, partiucarly his trouble getting separation when Diggs is being doubled, has been a huge component of the offensive inconsistencies this year.

800 yards and 7 TDs is above average production from a WR2.

Davis was 33rd in the NFL with 836 receiving yards this season.

Davis was T-15th with 7 receiving TDs this season (Tyreek Hill had 7 Rec TDs in one more GP).

Where Davis struggled was his 51.6% Catch% which was near the bottom of the league.

You have a few teams (Miami, Cincy, Sea) that have two 1000 yard+ WRs. But, those teams are outliers.

 

[Jim Bob]