Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

[TehDoak]

Meanwhile Singletary continues to have one of the worst fumble rates in the nfl, yet gets all of the “need to take care of the ball” moments.

He's gotten much better at holding the ball. The fumble on Sunday vs the pats was just an amazing punch by the Pats defender.

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't get too worried about that. There's always really good people to bring in.

The NFL is full of former head coaches who never had the right situation to be a head coach. Or, just wasn't a head coach. Wade Phillips is a great example of the latter. Brilliant defensive coordinator, but not a head coach.

Frank Reich is available. Kingsbury would be interesting. I assume Frazier is gone. Lovie Smith is available, and fielded good defenses in Chicago and St. Louis.

Not super worried.

I think the interesting thing will be how willing will McDermott be to bring in outside guys for coordinator roles.

I especially would not expect a big name, outside candidate to be the defensive coordinator given that McDermott is a defensive guy and the defense is as much his system as Frazier's.

And Josh Allen will have a huge voice into the process of replacing Dorsey. We saw that he wanted Dorsey to replace Daboll and they gave him what he wanted. I would expect that the same thing happens the next time they are in the market for a new offensive coordinator.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I don't get too worried about that. There's always really good people to bring in.

The NFL is full of former head coaches who never had the right situation to be a head coach. Or, just wasn't a head coach. Wade Phillips is a great example of the latter. Brilliant defensive coordinator, but not a head coach.

Frank Reich is available. Kingsbury would be interesting. I assume Frazier is gone. Lovie Smith is available, and fielded good defenses in Chicago and St. Louis.

Not super worried.

Not a huge football guy but it seems like the main reasons the Bills are good are Allen and Beane. As long as they stay, Bills should have a winning team.

 

[Husko]

He's gotten much better at holding the ball. The fumble on Sunday vs the pats was just an amazing punch by the Pats defender.

He's had 3 fumbles on 177 rushes this year, so 1 fumble every 59 rushes. That compares with 1 fumble per 50 rushes his first 3 years. So minimal improvement, but it's still a concern. Mostly it just annoys me that he gets the safe veteran presence type touches, when really he's the most liable to turn it over. He also has 6 drops and an 11.5% drop rate.

 

[Jim Bob]

Not a huge football guy but it seems like the main reasons the Bills are good are Allen and Beane. As long as they stay, Bills should have a winning team.

The four key positions with any NFL team are owner, GM, head coach, and QB.

They are good at those four spots.

 

[Husko]

I think the interesting thing will be how willing will McDermott be to bring in outside guys for coordinator roles.

I especially would not expect a big name, outside candidate to be the defensive coordinator given that McDermott is a defensive guy and the defense is as much his system as Frazier's.

And Josh Allen will have a huge voice into the process of replacing Dorsey. We saw that he wanted Dorsey to replace Daboll and they gave him what he wanted. I would expect that the same thing happens the next time they are in the market for a new offensive coordinator.

On offense I expect Brady would just get the gig. That’s why he’s here.

On defense I’d actually love if Frazier got hired away and McDermott brought in someone from a completely different scheme with new ideas. Our defense has been totally fine the entire time he’s been here, but it’s done so supplemented by some heavy investments there - which is fine. But my problem is what we’re doing is just starting to feel a little stale on that side of the ball. Would love someone that just brings new ideas, looks, etc to the table. But that would be predicated on Frazier getting a HC job because he’s definitely never getting fired.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[TehDoak]

He's had 3 fumbles on 177 rushes this year, so 1 fumble every 59 rushes. That compares with 1 fumble per 50 rushes his first 3 years. So minimal improvement, but it's still a concern. Mostly it just annoys me that he gets the safe veteran presence type touches, when really he's the most liable to turn it over. He also has 6 drops and an 11.5% drop rate.

His 3 fumbles this year were:

on that wet baltimore game, he had it in one arm and was hit as he turned. He should have two hands it on it given the conditions

The Minnesota game, came out and he was going down and it popped out

And the one vs the Patriots, I'm not sure who could withstand that flying punch timed how it was. Just a perfect move by the Pats player.

 

[Jim Bob]

On offense I expect Brady would just get the gig. That’s why he’s here.

On defense I’d actually love if Frazier got hired away and McDermott brought in someone from a completely different scheme with new ideas. Our defense has been totally fine the entire time he’s been here, but it’s done so supplemented by some heavy investments there - which is fine. But my problem is what we’re doing is just starting to feel a little stale on that side of the ball. Would love someone that just brings new ideas, looks, etc to the table. But that would be predicated on Frazier getting a HC job because he’s definitely never getting fired.

I doubt that McDermott hires a DC with new ideas. The most new idea stuff you will get is when he has to replace position coaches.

 

[Ace]

Plenty of people were ready to fire Daboll after the Jacksonville game last year.

I think the offense is doing well this season given the following:

Allen's throwing arm injury
Worse group of WRs than last year by and large
The OL has not been good and Saffold has looked old, especially in pass protection
Dorsey is a rookie play caller

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The total offensive DVOA ranking this season (2) is better than either of the past two seasons with Daboll (10 in '21 and 5 in '20).

I don’t need to see numbers. I don’t need to see how it compares statistically to what was.

because I already saw a complete lack of innovation. Anyone can keep a Josh Allen offense afloat. Not many could do it with so few ideas.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don’t need to see numbers. I don’t need to see how it compares statistically to what was.

because I already saw a complete lack of innovation. Anyone can keep a Josh Allen offense afloat. Not many could do it with so few ideas.

Dorsey didn't keep the offense afloat this season.

It got better with fewer WR weapons, an OL that was poor in pass protection, and with Josh Allen playing through an injury to his throwing elbow.

 

[buffa dud]

On offense I expect Brady would just get the gig. That’s why he’s here.

On defense I’d actually love if Frazier got hired away and McDermott brought in someone from a completely different scheme with new ideas. Our defense has been totally fine the entire time he’s been here, but it’s done so supplemented by some heavy investments there - which is fine. But my problem is what we’re doing is just starting to feel a little stale on that side of the ball. Would love someone that just brings new ideas, looks, etc to the table. But that would be predicated on Frazier getting a HC job because he’s definitely never getting fired.

Starting to feel a little stale? By what appreciable metric?

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Mike McDermott]

I don’t think Dorsey get a job this year. He’ll get some interviews but I doubt he lands a job. He’s a first year coordinator without major history. I know it has happened but I think teams will want to see some growth and consistency from him.

I also hope we make a deep playoff run which will have the side effect of delaying teams being able to talk to him. I don’t know the exact rules but I know there are rules about talking to guys who are still alive in the playoffs.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don’t think Dorsey get a job this year. He’ll get some interviews but I doubt he lands a job. He’s a first year coordinator without major history. I know it has happened but I think teams will want to see some growth and consistency from him.

I also hope we make a deep playoff run which will have the side effect of delaying teams being able to talk to him. I don’t know the exact rules but I know there are rules about talking to guys who are still alive in the playoffs.

The thing is that what it takes to be a solid coordinator is not what it takes to be a good head coach.

Mike Tomlin has 15 winning seasons and a SB win with the Steelers. He was hired after his first season as a coordinator.

Dorsey has a couple of unique things on his resume when it comes to interviewing for head coaching openings. He has time as a pro scout with the Panthers prior to becoming their QB coach. And he spent a year in the FIU athletic department in 2018 between his time in Carolina and his time in Buffalo.

You also have Daboll looking good as the head coach with the Giants and I think that really helps Dorsey's case, too.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I think the interesting thing will be how willing will McDermott be to bring in outside guys for coordinator roles.

I especially would not expect a big name, outside candidate to be the defensive coordinator given that McDermott is a defensive guy and the defense is as much his system as Frazier's.

And Josh Allen will have a huge voice into the process of replacing Dorsey. We saw that he wanted Dorsey to replace Daboll and they gave him what he wanted. I would expect that the same thing happens the next time they are in the market for a new offensive coordinator.

If Dorsey does go, I'd love to see Frank Reich get the job. It's an easy connection back to Buffalo. But I like his coaching background more. He was with the Colts when Manning was in his prime. He was the OC in Philly when they won the SB. He's had passing offenses and running offenses.

Personally, I think his experience would be good for Allen.

Not a huge football guy but it seems like the main reasons the Bills are good are Allen and Beane. As long as they stay, Bills should have a winning team.

Owner, GM, Head coach, and QB are the foundation of a great organization.

 

[Husko]

Starting to feel a little stale? By what appreciable metric?

Giving up 38 and 42 against the Chiefs in the playoffs the last 2 years, their struggles against Miami this year, letting Mac Jones march down the field over and over again this past week, Kirk Cousins 360 passing yards, etc.

The defense is fine. They will continue to be fine. I'd expect nothing less from a team with a defensive head coach and almost all their major resources spent on defense in recent years. And I know the numbers look better than fine, but is anyone really feeling good putting them in a class with the truly top defenses in the nfl? Feel like this defense right now could steal a game against a good offense? Think they can take a step forward when Poyer and/or Edmunds leave?

They're a zone heavy defense that for years has been "this is how we will play." No frills. It leads to a nice baseline competency, but little game-stealing wow. All I'm asking for is some new concepts and schemes to make the defense feel more multiple and diversified instead of the same thing we've been seeing for years.

 

[Paxon]

I don’t have strong feelings about Dorsey, but I’d hate to see us start bleeding staff every off-season. Every time a guy leaves for a promotion like that, he’s likely to take people with him. You end up needing to replace a lot of talent.

We are also one of the most attractive spots for guys to come in and work their way up the NFL ladder. It's the nature of being a powerhouse. That said, I doubt Dorsey moves this year.

 

[Onslow]

Hm. Looks like I’ll have to perform the required anti-jinx rituals.

 

[Husko]

The other factor with Dorsey is he has been seen as an up and coming guy in the league for years, even apart from his success with Allen. He's a guy that's been considered a future HC basically from the moment he entered coaching. I think he's probably a year away, but if someone likes him I doubt they pass just because he only has one year as a coordinator. I hope we don't lose him, but if we do, that's exactly why we brought in Brady.

 

[Mike McDermott]

The thing is that what it takes to be a solid coordinator is not what it takes to be a good head coach.

Mike Tomlin has 15 winning seasons and a SB win with the Steelers. He was hired after his first season as a coordinator.

Dorsey has a couple of unique things on his resume when it comes to interviewing for head coaching openings. He has time as a pro scout with the Panthers prior to becoming their QB coach. And he spent a year in the FIU athletic department in 2018 between his time in Carolina and his time in Buffalo.

You also have Daboll looking good as the head coach with the Giants and I think that really helps Dorsey's case, too.

Fair points. I didn’t know he was a scout.

Current openings are:
Panthers (requested permission to speak with Dorsey)
Cardinals
Colts
Broncos
Texans

So far he has only been requested by Panthers. I’m thinking Broncos/Cardinals will want some head coaching experience, Panthers there is a history there so that could be the front runner if he does leave, and Colts/Texans are wildcards as to what they’ll do.

While constantly turning over coordinators/“junior” staff isn’t ideal, it is a byproduct of being good, but speculating about who we might lose off staff and what other teams will do at coach is 1000% better than wondering/worrying/trying to figure out what coach we will bring in after only giving the last guy 2 years.

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[Der Jaeger]

Giving up 38 and 42 against the Chiefs in the playoffs the last 2 years, their struggles against Miami this year, letting Mac Jones march down the field over and over again this past week, Kirk Cousins 360 passing yards, etc.

The defense is fine. They will continue to be fine. I'd expect nothing less from a team with a defensive head coach and almost all their major resources spent on defense in recent years. And I know the numbers look better than fine, but is anyone really feeling good putting them in a class with the truly top defenses in the nfl? Feel like this defense right now could steal a game against a good offense? Think they can take a step forward when Poyer and/or Edmunds leave?

They're a zone heavy defense that for years has been "this is how we will play." No frills. It leads to a nice baseline competency, but little game-stealing wow. All I'm asking for is some new concepts and schemes to make the defense feel more multiple and diversified instead of the same thing we've been seeing for years.

I'm not super worried about the Bills with regard to results vs the resources. I am a little concerned that the reliance on a 4-2-5 will eventually catch up with the team. I'd like to see more situational substitution. Going into a traditional 4-3 isn't a bad thing, the Bills just don't have the 3rd linebacker to do it right now.

 

[Husko]

I'm not super worried about the Bills with regard to results vs the resources. I am a little concerned that the reliance on a 4-2-5 will eventually catch up with the team. I'd like to see more situational substitution. Going into a traditional 4-3 isn't a bad thing, the Bills just don't have the 3rd linebacker to do it right now.

I don't think they have any desire to do it, even if they did have a third LB they like (evne in 2021 when they had Klein who they liked they didn't play 4-3). They see Taron Johnson and his ability to basically be a 3rd LB and 3rd CB as a cheat code. And while I don't want to see him come off the field, more diversity in looks would definitely be welcome.

One thing I would welcome is if they lose Poyer (choosing to keep Edmunds, as I expect), and replace him with a replacement level guy, for them to start employing some 1-safety looks, with Taron Johnson backed a little off the line as sort of a hybrid SS/NB. The extra defender could be a third LB or an extra CB to attack more underneath. Good coaching staffs play to the strengths of their personnel, and if safety suddenly becomes a weak spot, no need to force two of them out there 100% of the time as we do.

 

[ValJamesDuex]