Buffalo Bills Off Season Begins - The Draft, Free Agency, and Cap Management, Oh My.

[buffa dud]

Giving up 38 and 42 against the Chiefs in the playoffs the last 2 years, their struggles against Miami this year, letting Mac Jones march down the field over and over again this past week, Kirk Cousins 360 passing yards, etc.

The defense is fine. They will continue to be fine. I'd expect nothing less from a team with a defensive head coach and almost all their major resources spent on defense in recent years. And I know the numbers look better than fine, but is anyone really feeling good putting them in a class with the truly top defenses in the nfl? Feel like this defense right now could steal a game against a good offense? Think they can take a step forward when Poyer and/or Edmunds leave?

They're a zone heavy defense that for years has been "this is how we will play." No frills. It leads to a nice baseline competency, but little game-stealing wow. All I'm asking for is some new concepts and schemes to make the defense feel more multiple and diversified instead of the same thing we've been seeing for years.

Mahomes has scored less than 30 points exactly 4 times in 11 post-season games played. 1 of those games came as a rookie. He gets points.

Miami scored 21 and 29 points, respectively.

Mac Jones has 1 career win against the Bills, and has 6 career TDs for (and 7 career INTs against). He went 0-2 this season.

Kirk Cousins scored 1 TD and had 2 INTs in the Justin Jefferson show.

I feel like you're looking at individual events, and drawing conclusions from them rather than looking at the larger body of work. The bottom line is that the Bills finished 12-3 this season. They finished with one of, if not the best, DVOA this season against some very notable offenses/quarterbacks. And they did it largely without two All-Pro players (Miller and Hyde) while their other two All-Pro DBs were hobbled (Poyer and White), and the rest of the defense was in constant flux due to a revolving door to the medical room. I shouldn't have to point out how challenging this season was.

 

[Jim Bob]

I don't think they have any desire to do it, even if they did have a third LB they like (evne in 2021 when they had Klein who they liked they didn't play 4-3). They see Taron Johnson and his ability to basically be a 3rd LB and 3rd CB as a cheat code. And while I don't want to see him come off the field, more diversity in looks would definitely be welcome.

One thing I would welcome is if they lose Poyer (choosing to keep Edmunds, as I expect), and replace him with a replacement level guy, for them to start employing some 1-safety looks, with Taron Johnson backed a little off the line as sort of a hybrid SS/NB. The extra defender could be a third LB or an extra CB to attack more underneath. Good coaching staffs play to the strengths of their personnel, and if safety suddenly becomes a weak spot, no need to force two of them out there 100% of the time as we do.

With base offensive formations having 3 WRs and 4 or 5 pass catching options, more and more teams are going to have nickel as their base defensive set.

The future at the safety position will be interesting to watch. But, both Hyde and Poyer were far from Pro Bowl/All Pro level players when they signed as UFAs here from Cleveland and Green Bay respectively. Hyde was the more proven guy, but not what he has developed into here.

I think the ability to turn "replacement level" UFAs and 3rd day draft picks into solid NFL DBs will give Beane and McDermott the confidence that they can get a replacement at safety that they can coach up to outperform the initial contract they sign here.

I also wonder if the elbow and knee injuries mean that the offers from other teams that Poyer is hoping for don't come and that he signs back on a short term, team friendly deal.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[brian_griffin]

I like Dorsey a lot but I think the one thing I’d change is to put more “fun” plays in. Daboll had creative plays he would call and it matches this teams persona with Allen and Diggs out there just having fun.

The Chiefs do it all the time.

Maybe Dorsey being his first year is more hesitant to do stuff like that. (Although he has tossed in a couple go routes for Gilliam out wide, but he’s no DiMarco)

(and)

Winning is more fun than gadget plays for me.

I'm pretty sure the bolded in the original post is a little sarcasm...

With as many heavy sets that the Bills use, I wonder if they are looking at him.

I would love a huge Kelce / Gronk - sized target, a couple inches and 20 pounds bigger than Knox, both for the line-blocking and the ability to chuck a DB at the LOS and knock him back 4 yards.

I don't get too worried about that. There's always really good people to bring in.

The NFL is full of former head coaches who never had the right situation to be a head coach. Or, just wasn't a head coach. Wade Phillips is a great example of the latter. Brilliant defensive coordinator, but not a head coach.

Frank Reich is available. Kingsbury would be interesting. I assume Frazier is gone. Lovie Smith is available, and fielded good defenses in Chicago and St. Louis.

Not super worried.

Gregg Williams in the same boat (the Saints bounty-gate stuff aside).

Head coaches are the alpha-dog leaders. You want their leadership far more so than their player-coaching skills. You can put staff around them to help with game management, coaching players, etc.

Wild that MIA has to go back 7 seasons to get a cumulative 9 games <40 degrees. Bills (Packers, Bears, Steelers, Browns, etc.) could easily play 4-5 games a season <40 degrees.

On offense I expect Brady would just get the gig. That’s why he’s here.

On defense I’d actually love if Frazier got hired away and McDermott brought in someone from a completely different scheme with new ideas. Our defense has been totally fine the entire time he’s been here, but it’s done so supplemented by some heavy investments there - which is fine. But my problem is what we’re doing is just starting to feel a little stale on that side of the ball. Would love someone that just brings new ideas, looks, etc to the table. But that would be predicated on Frazier getting a HC job because he’s definitely never getting fired.

I'd like to see the Bills find a better solution for the Kelce / Kittle / Gronk / Geisicki / etc. big-body pass-catching tight-ends who kill the Bills with YAC. I don't like giving up 60 pounds and half a foot to those players, and a cover-2 or similar without a jam at the line is conceding a 5-yd completion, 5+ yards before contact, and another 5 yards after contact riding the TE to the ground.

His 3 fumbles this year were:

on that wet baltimore game, he had it in one arm and was hit as he turned. He should have two hands it on it given the conditions

The Minnesota game, came out and he was going down and it popped out

And the one vs the Patriots, I'm not sure who could withstand that flying punch timed how it was. Just a perfect move by the Pats player.

It was. We'd be singing the praises of the Bill who did that if the play/teams were reversed.

The thing is that what it takes to be a solid coordinator is not what it takes to be a good head coach.

Mike Tomlin has 15 winning seasons and a SB win with the Steelers. He was hired after his first season as a coordinator.

Dorsey has a couple of unique things on his resume when it comes to interviewing for head coaching openings. He has time as a pro scout with the Panthers prior to becoming their QB coach. And he spent a year in the FIU athletic department in 2018 between his time in Carolina and his time in Buffalo.

You also have Daboll looking good as the head coach with the Giants and I think that really helps Dorsey's case, too.

Mike Tomlin would be a successful leader in anything he pursued.

 

[Chainshot]

I see we have a new Bills' thread since the old one at 6K replies was set to collide with the burgeoning Goaltending Controversy 2.0 thread.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I don't think they have any desire to do it, even if they did have a third LB they like (evne in 2021 when they had Klein who they liked they didn't play 4-3). They see Taron Johnson and his ability to basically be a 3rd LB and 3rd CB as a cheat code. And while I don't want to see him come off the field, more diversity in looks would definitely be welcome.

One thing I would welcome is if they lose Poyer (choosing to keep Edmunds, as I expect), and replace him with a replacement level guy, for them to start employing some 1-safety looks, with Taron Johnson backed a little off the line as sort of a hybrid SS/NB. The extra defender could be a third LB or an extra CB to attack more underneath. Good coaching staffs play to the strengths of their personnel, and if safety suddenly becomes a weak spot, no need to force two of them out there 100% of the time as we do.

I've been thinking about Poyer replacements as well. I'd like to see the Bills move Johnson to that same hybrid SS/NB role, with Hyde returning as the FS. And then play White with Elam or Benford, with the 3 CBs on the field in obvious passing downs.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[buffalowing88]

The other factor with Dorsey is he has been seen as an up and coming guy in the league for years, even apart from his success with Allen. He's a guy that's been considered a future HC basically from the moment he entered coaching. I think he's probably a year away, but if someone likes him I doubt they pass just because he only has one year as a coordinator. I hope we don't lose him, but if we do, that's exactly why we brought in Brady.

Talk radio in Charlotte was talking about Dorsey as a HC candidate years ago. He's certainly got the pedigree. I think he is here for one more season until a more appealing opportunity presents itself but, like you said, it's a given that our next OC is Brady. He's in Allen's ear every time he's off the field and outside of being attached to the shit-show of Rhule's early time in Carolina, he's been pretty impressive.

I've been thinking about Poyer replacements as well. I'd like to see the Bills move Johnson to that same hybrid SS/NB role, with Hyde returning as the FS. And then play White with Elam or Benford, with the 3 CBs on the field in obvious passing downs.

Would Dane Jackson be gone in this scenario? I'm not opposed to that, just curious.

 

[tmlms13]

With as many heavy sets that the Bills use, I wonder if they are looking at him.

Bills should just draft 7 DBs, by pure luck you should hit at least 1 of 7.

 

[Jim Bob]

Bills should just draft 7 DBs, by pure luck you should hit at least 1 of 7.

Where did that come from?

 

[tmlms13]

He's had 3 fumbles on 177 rushes this year, so 1 fumble every 59 rushes. That compares with 1 fumble per 50 rushes his first 3 years. So minimal improvement, but it's still a concern. Mostly it just annoys me that he gets the safe veteran presence type touches, when really he's the most liable to turn it over. He also has 6 drops and an 11.5% drop rate.

Get some of that Spider Tack, I'm sure he can find a MLB pitcher willing to share his contact. Put it on your arm, not gloves so if a ref asks the to look at your gloves they appear clean.

 

[tmlms13]

Where did that come from?

That secondary long term will need help. Even if Poyer resigns, Micah gets healthy and Tre gets close to his AP form.

I'm still worried, especially with the amount of elite QBs in the AFC. To me DBs are that one position you can never have too many of..... It's like right shot defenseman in hockey, everyone wants more and no one has too many.

 

[Mike McDermott]

 

[misterchainsaw]

I think there's a number of reasons that it feels like the defense has dropped off, though they haven't exactly fallen off of a cliff:

What they are worse at: their drive success rate (which measures how often a 1st down turns into a new 1st down or TD) is solidly middle of the pack at 16th and similarly our yards given up per drive is 13th. And just to hammer home how hard defense is in the NFL, the BEST team in the NFL at drive success rate is 66%, meaning even the best defense gives up a first down 2/3rds of the time starting at 1st and 10. But those are pretty significant drop offs from last year, where we were 2nd and 1st in DSR and yards/drive given up, respectively.

What they are better at is red zone defense. The Bills were 10th in the league last year at giving up TD's in the red zone at ~53%, and this year they are 2nd, at just 45%. Anecdotally, because I can't find stats on this, I believe they're also forcing more turnovers in the red zone, so those TD's are turning not only into FG's, but into nothing. They are also forcing turnovers in general at a similarly high rate - 5th in the NFL this year in the % of drives ending in a turnover, 7th last year.

And I think it's obviously also worth noting with all of these stats that are not opponent adjusted - we played a harder schedule of offenses this year. Last year's opponents averaged a -4.5% offensive DVOA, this year's a positive 1.2% offensive DVOA. And while technically Mike White is a backup, I don't think we played a single game this year where the opponent's clearly better QB was injured and out for the game. Jackson, Tua, Fields, Stafford(and Cupp) all missed chunks of time this year, where their offense was clearly better with them on the field, and we didn't catch any of them during the time those guys were out.

 

[Jim Bob]

That secondary long term will need help. Even if Poyer resigns, Micah gets healthy and Tre gets close to his AP form.

I'm still worried, especially with the amount of elite QBs in the AFC. To me DBs are that one position you can never have too many of..... It's like right shot defenseman in hockey, everyone wants more and no one has too many.

If Poyer, Hyde, and White are all back and good to go next year, the DBs are set with Elam, Benford, and TJohnson.

IOL, WR, and maybe LB will be much bigger needs than DB heading into the off-season.

 

[Fezzy126]

Plenty of people were ready to fire Daboll after the Jacksonville game last year.

I think the offense is doing well this season given the following:

Allen's throwing arm injury
Worse group of WRs than last year by and large
The OL has not been good and Saffold has looked old, especially in pass protection
Dorsey is a rookie play caller

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View attachment 632984

The total offensive DVOA ranking this season (2) is better than either of the past two seasons with Daboll (10 in '21 and 5 in '20).

My analysis between Daboll & Dorsey is pretty simple, when a Daboll play worked he was able to scheme guys wide open, regardless of the talent he was working with. So far this season, when a Dorsey play has worked it has been because of individual talent winning. I can't remember many times outside of the Gabe Davis touchdown in Week 1 where a play design produced a wide open target for Allen.

That being said, Dorsey is very young so he is far from a finished product as an offensive play caller - there is a ton of room for growth out of him. For that reason it's probably unfair to compare his first year as a coordinator to someone else that has been doing it for years.

As far as supporting cast goes, I'm not as down on the receiving weapons as most, but I do think the offensive line play has been worse this year. When the offense went nuclear at the end of last year, no one came close to breathing on Allen, the O-line really came together and gelled for the stretch run.

Allen's bread and butter are the medium to long routes, which take time to develop. He just hasn't had the same amount of time to let those plays develop.

At the end of the day I don't think Dorsey is a major driver for our offense's performance, but he isn't exactly killing us either. The offensive system + Allen will produce a top 10 offense every year regardless of the coordinator.

 

[brian_griffin]

Comment on Bills 2023 schedule:

1. 10 games (5 home, 5 away) against 2022 playoff teams. PHI, DAL, NYG, MIAx2, CIN, JAX, TB, KC, LAC
2. 10 games (4 home, 6 away) against 2022 teams with 0.500 or better records (remove TB Bucs, add WAS Commanders)
3. 2 games against the 8-9 Pats.
4. 2 games against the 7-10 Jets, who might be the best 10-loss team the NFL has ever had and are a decent QB away (Mike White?, Mayfield, Carr, other) from contending given their defense.
5. only 2 games (both at home) against teams with </= 6 wins (LV, DEN)
6. 9 home games, assuming no weather events move the location.
7. Their road schedule looks particularly daunting.

Bills 2023 opponents' 2022 winning percentage was 0.542, which is 7th in the NFL (the top 8 teams are the NFC & AFC East teams).
The 0.542 win % would have been the 3rd-toughest schedule this season.

To be the best, you have to beat the best.

 

[Jim Bob]

My analysis between Daboll & Dorsey is pretty simple, when a Daboll play worked he was able to scheme guys wide open, regardless of the talent he was working with. So far this season, when a Dorsey play has worked it has been because of individual talent winning. I can't remember many times outside of the Gabe Davis touchdown in Week 1 where a play design produced a wide open target for Allen.

That being said, Dorsey is very young so he is far from a finished product as an offensive play caller - there is a ton of room for growth out of him. For that reason it's probably unfair to compare his first year as a coordinator to someone else that has been doing it for years.

As far as supporting cast goes, I'm not as down on the receiving weapons as most, but I do think the offensive line play has been worse this year. When the offense went nuclear at the end of last year, no one came close to breathing on Allen, the O-line really came together and gelled for the stretch run.

Allen's bread and butter are the medium to long routes, which take time to develop. He just hasn't had the same amount of time to let those plays develop.

At the end of the day I don't think Dorsey is a major driver for our offense's performance, but he isn't exactly killing us either. The offensive system + Allen will produce a top 10 offense every year regardless of the coordinator.

Slot WR is a key weapon and they went from Beasley to…

Crowder got hurt.

McKenzie hasn’t been the guy to play that role.

Shakir is promising, but has a lot of reps to be a solid target.

And Beane banked on Davis taking a step and he has regressed to rookie season level it comes to things like contested catch rate and drops. His ankle injury didn’t help, either.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Selanne00008]

I was catching up on Crowder news and saw he was jogging, running on anti-gravity machines about 3 weeks ago. He probly needs the off-season, but I wonder if there's a chance in another couple weeks. Probly not, but you never know.

Any OBJ news out there?

 

[Fezzy126]

Slot WR is a key weapon and they went from Beasley to…

Crowder got hurt.

McKenzie hasn’t been the guy to play that role.

Shakir is promising, but has a lot of reps to be a solid target.

And Beane banked on Davis taking a step and he has regressed to rookie season level it comes to things like contested catch rate and drops. His ankle injury didn’t help, either.

I think once some time has passed and people look back on the season they'll be surprised by some of the raw stats.

Mckenzie wasn't utilized at all like Beasley was in the past - the Bills leaked out Knox and the RBs as their outlets/check-downs, while Mckenzie's depth of target was more than 3 yards what Beasley's was a year ago. We don't know if Mckenzie can fill that role, because Dorsey didn't use him the same way.

Davis didn't hit his ceiling for expectations, but at the end of the day he had almost 50 catches for 836 yards and 7 tds, despite missing two games and being hobbled for others. That is definitely #2 WR numbers. His catch rate has been pretty consistently bad since he came into the year, but it's worth noting that his separation and xYAC were both pretty poor (this season is the top row, followed by the last two years)

I would like to see contested catch numbers for our guys, as it felt like there were quite a few more contested catches to deal with this year. Ultimately, it may just be a case of recency bias - last year our offense never punted and guys were wide open over the last month, whereas this season the offense has ended the season a little out of sync.

Personally, I would have like to see Knox utilized more in the passing game, and our screen game was non existent this year as well.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Even if Dorsey gets a job this year, isn't that why they brought in Joe Brady to be QB coach? The obvious successor at OC is already on the staff and familiar with Allen and the offense.

(I also wonder if at some point Chad Hall gets a chance at OC, whether here or somewhere else...)

 

[Jim Bob]

Personally, I would have like to see Knox utilized more in the passing game, and our screen game was non existent this year as well.

One thing about the screen game that I heard either Joe Marino or one of the Cover 1 guys mention lately is that Josh Allen’s run threat makes the screen game less effective because LBs and DBs need to keep eyes in the backfield more than with pocket QBs. And that lets them read and react quicker to screen plays.

Even if Dorsey gets a job this year, isn't that why they brought in Joe Brady to be QB coach? The obvious successor at OC is already on the staff and familiar with Allen and the offense.

(I also wonder if at some point Chad Hall gets a chance at OC, whether here or somewhere else...)

Brady, Shula, or Hall would be the most likely candidates if Dorsey gets a job this off-season.

 

[Onslow]

I think once some time has passed and people look back on the season they'll be surprised by some of the raw stats.

Mckenzie wasn't utilized at all like Beasley was in the past - the Bills leaked out Knox and the RBs as their outlets/check-downs, while Mckenzie's depth of target was more than 3 yards what Beasley's was a year ago. We don't know if Mckenzie can fill that role, because Dorsey didn't use him the same way.

View attachment 633212

Davis didn't hit his ceiling for expectations, but at the end of the day he had almost 50 catches for 836 yards and 7 tds, despite missing two games and being hobbled for others. That is definitely #2 WR numbers. His catch rate has been pretty consistently bad since he came into the year, but it's worth noting that his separation and xYAC were both pretty poor (this season is the top row, followed by the last two years)

View attachment 633214

I would like to see contested catch numbers for our guys, as it felt like there were quite a few more contested catches to deal with this year. Ultimately, it may just be a case of recency bias - last year our offense never punted and guys were wide open over the last month, whereas this season the offense has ended the season a little out of sync.

Personally, I would have like to see Knox utilized more in the passing game, and our screen game was non existent this year as well.

Can McKenzie run option routes and wiggle open, or find the hole in the zone and sit? That’s what Beasley was so good at. IMO he’s best utilized as a gadget player and depth receiver, not the first option in the slot.

I don’t think Davis had as bad a year as it seemed, but the drops are ridiculous. Highlighted by the endzone drop on Sunday. I still think he can be a decent to good WR2. Next season will be telling - unless Beane makes a big upgrade in the offseason. Then all bets are off.

I think the offense does better if they commit more to rushing in the red zone, and getting Cook around a dozen carries per game, making him RB1 and demoting Singletary

 

[Mike McDermott]

I was catching up on Crowder news and saw he was jogging, running on anti-gravity machines about 3 weeks ago. He probly needs the off-season, but I wonder if there's a chance in another couple weeks. Probly not, but you never know.

Any OBJ news out there?

At this point, I want no part of OBJ. Between the way he handled things, the concerns it appears teams had about his recovery, and basically every report saying he wants a multi year deal right off the jump, it isn't worth it at we start the playoffs. He probably couldn't even play this weekend even if someone did sign him. It is already late Tuesday.