Speculation: OEL trade speculation megathread

[XX]

That seems pretty fair from Vancouver, but I don't think Virtanen is a good comparable to Berglund in that template. Berglund was 30 with a big contract, Virtanen is a 24 year old RFA. The better comparable would probably be Roussel.

Berglund and Sobotka were pure dumps. Eriksson is worse than either in terms of dumpage. I have Thompson and Virtanen as roughly equal in value given the circumstances and Juolevi as the 2nd. Vancouver parlays a bad contract, likely cap crunch casualty, and surplus young player into OEL at the cost of a 1st. Coyotes get 3 solid pieces but Vancouver protects all 3 bluechips. Nobody is super disappointed or stoked.

Buying out Grabner freed up cash to take Roussel and the Coyotes want more grit, so I'd keep an eye on that.

 

[Sam Pollock]

Based on the "ROR" trade template

From Vancouver: 2021 1st, Virtanen, Juolevi, Eriksson
From Boston: 2021 1st, Beecher, Vaakanainen, Moore

If I'm Arizona and was hell bent on getting rid of OEL, I would send him to Vancouver for that package.

 

[Mr Plow]

From Vancouver, I guess they’re asking gm for imaybe Virtanen, Juolevi, 2020 3rd, and 2021 1st.

Those are all very attainable assets from Vancouver. I can't speak too much on what's a fair deal since I don't have a good read on OEL as a player, but if the contract dumps/retention worked out I would be happy to give up any or maybe even all of those players/picks.

 

[Peter Griffin]

That seems pretty fair from Vancouver, but I don't think Virtanen is a good comparable to Berglund in that template. Berglund was 30 with a big contract, Virtanen is a 24 year old RFA. The better comparable would probably be Roussel.

Eriksson is a much worse dump though. More likely it would be Sutter.

 

[Djp]

three way trade between boston/van/arizona

Boston gets Jake virtanen+OEL
Vancouver gets:carlo+rask
arizona:Loui eriksson+sven+Boston's pick+prospect

Arizona gets screwed over

 

[Peter Griffin]

Funny thing about Ritchie, go plug him into the buyout calculator. You actually get a 300k CREDIT for buying him out this year. Probably neither here nor there but what a funny thing.

Like salary cap food stamps or something.

 

[wintersej]

Eriksson is a much worse dump though. More likely it would be Sutter.

It’s only a much worse cap dump if they plan to be a cap team this or next year. His actual salary is as low as Moore’s salary in those seasons.

 

[Peter Griffin]

It’s only a much worse cap dump if they plan to be a cap team this or next year. His actual salary is as low as Moore’s salary in those seasons.

I meant in reference to Sobotka in the ROR trade.

 

[XX]

It’s only a much worse cap dump if they plan to be a cap team this or next year. His actual salary is as low as Moore’s salary in those seasons.

Nobody else is taking Eriksson at 6m AAV, and certainly not in trade for a top pairing defender. It's a unique opportunity for Benning which is why he is very interested in making the conversion. Also likely locks down Markstrom for them.

 

[Canucks LB]

The new news is pretty important.
The ROR Template makes a ton of sense.

• Tage Thompson
• Patrik Berglund
• Vladimir Sobotka
• First-round pick (2019)
• Second-round pick (2021)

Vancouver: 2021 1st rounder / 2021 2nd Rounder / Nils Hoglander / + (Two Cap dumps) Loui Eriksson / Jay Beagle

Canucks get rid of Loui + Jay Beagles awful contracts, they lost 2 high picks and a top prospect, but get a top pairing D-man in return.

I would also like OEL to retain 1.25m per year in this deal, or no dice.

Loui and Beagle BOTH have negative value, this is why Hoglander has to be involved (I doubt a Juolevi or virtanen gets it done) (Even tho I would HATE to trade him).

This is probably what it could look like, Canucks give a lot, but gets out of some basically untradable contracts.

Still probably would not do it, it's just way 2 much and complicated

 

[Cogburn]

Well the Canucks sure make out like bandits in this one. 2 cap dumps and Virtanen and in return they get Carlo and Rask. OK.

I presume a prospect from Vancouver as well.

Boston doesn't do badly either. Carlo+pick+Rask for OEL and Virtanen? That should be a very good deal for them.

Arizona is the team that does piss poorly here. A first pairing D, and they get two cap dumps, an indeterminant pick and prospect, and a lot of good karma.

 

[wintersej]

I think Boston pays a first a year away + Beecher to upgrade Vaakanainen to OEL and ditch Moore all day everyday. But you know how they are valuing guys internally better.

Maybe! It seems they really like Beecher. And they seem to like Krug more than the Boston fan base which has predictably turned on Krug when they thought he was for sure gone. OEL > Krug. But is he Vaak, 1st, and Beecher better? If the Bruins have OEL, who cares about Vaak. But on a team with centers aging out picks and C prospects are gold.

I’d rather see them move Rask to someone, and dangle DeBrusk instead of Beecher and try to start a convo including Darcy K.

 

[elitepete]

The new news is pretty important.
The ROR Template makes a ton of sense.



Vancouver: 2021 1st rounder / 2021 2nd Rounder / Nils Hoglander / + (Two Cap dumps) Loui Eriksson / Jay Beagle

Canucks get rid of Loui + Jay Beagles awful contracts, they lost 2 high picks and a top prospect, but get a top pairing D-man in return.

I would also like OEL to retain 1.25m per year in this deal, or no dice.

Loui and Beagle BOTH have negative value, this is why Hoglander has to be involved (I doubt a Juolevi or virtanen gets it done) (Even tho I would HATE to trade him).

This is probably what it could look like, Canucks give a lot, but gets out of some basically untradable contracts.

Still probably would not do it, it's just way 2 much and complicated

I would do it if the 1st is protected.

 

[wintersej]

I presume a prospect from Vancouver as well.

Boston doesn't do badly either. Carlo+pick+Rask for OEL and Virtanen? That should be a very good deal for them.

Arizona is the team that does piss poorly here. A first pairing D, and they get two cap dumps, an indeterminant pick and prospect, and a lot of good karma.

Scary from Boston’s POV. You leave without a 2nd pairing or goalie. Seems problematic.

 

[ATypicalCanadian]

Assuming you follow the ROR trade to the T I imagine it would look something like this:


Vancouver:

2021 1st
2021/22 2nd
Juolevi/Rathbone/Rafferty

In terms of salary I think the best case would be Sutter and Baertschi both going since I don’t believe Eriksson would be an option without more sweetener in form of possibly Hoglander.

Boston

2020 2nd - The possibility of a 2020 2nd would be of interest to the Coyotes too vs waiting a year/two years on the Canucks end.
2021 1st
Vaakanainen/A different prospect.
Moore - I don’t see other cap dump potential and he has 3 more years left vs the 1 year remaining of Sutter and Baertschi.

 

[rt]

The new news is pretty important.
The ROR Template makes a ton of sense.



Vancouver: 2021 1st rounder / 2021 2nd Rounder / Nils Hoglander / + (Two Cap dumps) Loui Eriksson / Jay Beagle

Canucks get rid of Loui + Jay Beagles awful contracts, they lost 2 high picks and a top prospect, but get a top pairing D-man in return.

I would also like OEL to retain 1.25m per year in this deal, or no dice.

Loui and Beagle BOTH have negative value, this is why Hoglander has to be involved (I doubt a Juolevi or virtanen gets it done) (Even tho I would HATE to trade him).

This is probably what it could look like, Canucks give a lot, but gets out of some basically untradable contracts.

Still probably would not do it, it's just way 2 much and complicated

Hoglander, 21 1st, 21 2nd, Eriksson and Beagle would probably be acceptable to me. But no chance I’d do any retention on OEL at all. Zero. No way.

 

[JTmillerForA1stLOL]

I would hope a trade involving a 1st and Hoglander would involve a better return than OEL's contract. I like the player but that contract is so ugly for a team in our current and future cap position.

Unloading a 1st & Hoglander for a young defenseman while burying Eriksson, buying out Sven and maybe dumping Sutter with a Virtanen type sweetener would be more appealing overall. Not trading the 1st & Hoglander would be even more appealing.

 

[XX]

But is he Vaak, 1st, and Beecher better?

I don't think teams with an open window score it that way. They already are moving on from Krug for various reasons. He seems destined to be overpaid somewhere else. So you have to either overpay the shit out of him or let him walk. Even then, he may be super enticed by the open market, leaving you scrambling. He's basically gone.

So what then? Realistically, there's nobody readily available in trade as good as OEL. FA market isn't really an answer. Certainly not a definitive one. You have a limited amount of roster spots/development bandwidth on defense. OEL will probably have his best 3-5 years of his career in Boston. Most teams are not going to want to take someone like Moore back the other way even if they trade you a good 2nd pair guy.

It seems like a no brainer to me if the intention is to compete next year. You're not going to miss those assets. Different story if you are rebuilding and/or the timing isn't right. Boston three years from now would not make that trade if you put OEL in stasis.

Kuemper you might be able to get in the deal for DeBrusk 1 for 1, not as an upgrade on Beecher. Coyotes also have Hall's rights if it comes to that as well.

 

[wintersej]

The new news is pretty important.
The ROR Template makes a ton of sense.



Vancouver: 2021 1st rounder / 2021 2nd Rounder / Nils Hoglander / + (Two Cap dumps) Loui Eriksson / Jay Beagle

Canucks get rid of Loui + Jay Beagles awful contracts, they lost 2 high picks and a top prospect, but get a top pairing D-man in return.

I would also like OEL to retain 1.25m per year in this deal, or no dice.

Loui and Beagle BOTH have negative value, this is why Hoglander has to be involved (I doubt a Juolevi or virtanen gets it done) (Even tho I would HATE to trade him).

This is probably what it could look like, Canucks give a lot, but gets out of some basically untradable contracts.

Still probably would not do it, it's just way 2 much and complicated

I don’t think you get two dumps AND retention. Hoglander is a solid prospect and all, but...

 

[David71]

REPLACE beagle with roussel?

 

[XX]

The Coyotes would just take the extra dump instead of wasting a retention slot for 7 years. That's a non starter. I don't even know why people keep suggesting it.

 

[Peter Griffin]

Yea 7 years of retention is fantasy.

 

[elitepete]

I don’t think you get two dumps AND retention. Hoglander is a solid prospect and all, but...

What if we throw in Juolevi?

 

[wintersej]

I don't think teams with an open window score it that way. They already are moving on from Krug for various reasons. He seems destined to be overpaid somewhere else. So you have to either overpay the shit out of him or let him walk. Even then, he may be super enticed by the open market, leaving you scrambling. He's basically gone.

So what then? Realistically, there's nobody readily available in trade as good as OEL. FA market isn't really an answer. Certainly not a definitive one. You have a limited amount of roster spots/development bandwidth on defense. OEL will probably have his best 3-5 years of his career in Boston. Most teams are not going to want to take someone like Moore back the other way even if they trade you a good 2nd pair guy.

It seems like a no brainer to me if the intention is to compete next year. You're not going to miss those assets. Different story if you are rebuilding and/or the timing isn't right. Boston three years from now would not make that trade if you put OEL in stasis.

Kuemper you might be able to get in the deal for DeBrusk 1 for 1, not as an upgrade on Beecher. Coyotes also have Hall's rights if it comes to that as well.

I wouldn’t rule out Krug in the slightest to be honest.

I think you touch on the core issue here. Bruins are clearly looking beyond just next year or else Rask’s name wouldn’t be out there. You have to think it’s Krejci’s last season in Boston. Chara very possibly already played his last season in Boston. Krug, too. Pastrnak is starting his peak now and McAvoy is probably a couple years away. I think they are trying to balance this coming season and being good enough they believe they can take a run, but also keeping an eye on the future and trying to make a next run when Pasta and McAvoy are peaking. And oh my is it hard to thread that needle. OEL could be a big part of threading that needle, but OEL won’t be the only name out there and not the only one that will be interested in a consistent winning market like Boston. If they believe Beecher has top 6 upside up the middle it’s hard. Off to bed!

 

[rt]

Beecher is a long ways away. So is that 2021 first. Neither is likely to be a key piece before 2024.