Observations XXVIII

[FossilFndr]

Shortened season, contrived playoffs, no home or away team advantage, no home crowd, no crowd at all for that matter, nothing really parallel with a normal end of season .......

IF it happens at all there might be a curiosity watching the players in a virtual vacuum.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I would still like to find one article about the anticipated financials.

The NHL is what, about a $5B business in a normal year? With HRR of about $160M per team.

How much are they actually going to make on this empty-arenas tournament that makes a dent against the losses they suffer on their baseline numbers? That's what I want to know. They aren't going to make $1B. What are they hoping to garner from TV/advertising? $100M? $250M?

If it's $250M, that's less than $10M per team, for example.

 

[predfan98]

What tie breaker did we win to get the 6 seed? I am guessing it was regulation wins? We were tied in ROW but I think we had one more regulation win.

And just my 2 cents here, but for the life of me I don't understand so many talking about the risk involved in playing and it not being worth it, etc. Is anyone looking at the data??? From the CDC itself, if you are under 50, you have more risk of dying from the seasonal flu than from Covid. If you think it is too risky to play now, you may as well shut down sports for a long, long time (and even for the regular flu for that matter).

Millions of Americans are out there working right now every day. I am doing it- my wife is doing it. Grocery store workers. Restaurant workers. All of them are at WAY more risk than these athletes will be. So I just don't understand the thinking that even with all the precautions they are taking, the medical care, the testing, controlled setting, no fans, etc- so many still think that sports should not resume. To this day, someone correct me if i am wrong, not one athlete has gotten sick from this virus despite the fact that this thing was out and circulating in January and February when regular sports was going on as usual.

Again- just my 2 cents- i'll probably be in the minority.

Having said all of that, as much as i am looking forward to having it back, I think I would be totally fine if they just scrapped everything and just started the season on time in October. It seems crazy that we are probably going to have to wait 2 more months or more before the games start. That is almost as long as we have been without hockey during this shutdown, and that feels like a lifetime.

But they are at least saying that they intend on playing a full 82 game season in 2021, so that is a positive.

You are in the minority on this board, but I am right there with you. You’re right the new data from the CDC should reassure everyone but it isn’t getting thru.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I would still like to find one article about the anticipated financials.

The NHL is what, about a $5B business in a normal year? With HRR of about $160M per team.

How much are they actually going to make on this empty-arenas tournament that makes a dent against the losses they suffer on their baseline numbers? That's what I want to know. They aren't going to make $1B. What are they hoping to garner from TV/advertising? $100M? $250M?

If it's $250M, that's less than $10M per team, for example.

Just following on to that, apparently Bettman was quoted in the presser yesterday as saying that staging this tournament will cost the NHL "tens of millions"?

I wonder if the whole goal from a financial perspective isn't basically a longer view on their next major TV contract? Even if they have to make an investment now and are getting almost nil revenue from this event. The next TV contract is thought to be a crucial foundation to the next CBA. The current major TV deal that's set to expire ?next year? was $2B over 10 years to NBC. And negotiating the new one profitably is probably the single biggest financial boost the league can hope for on the horizon.

So maybe they are selling all parties on the idea that this is an investment in that goal. Put on a good show, demonstrate a good market, maybe if that helps ensure that their cherished TV contract negotiation comes out positive, that'll be good for everybody in the long run, owners and players both.

 

[Scoresberg]

I would still like to find one article about the anticipated financials.

The NHL is what, about a $5B business in a normal year? With HRR of about $160M per team.

How much are they actually going to make on this empty-arenas tournament that makes a dent against the losses they suffer on their baseline numbers? That's what I want to know. They aren't going to make $1B. What are they hoping to garner from TV/advertising? $100M? $250M?

If it's $250M, that's less than $10M per team, for example.

I've heard reports about $400-500M being saved. About half of what they would lose if they canceled the rest of the season. I assure you, they wouldn't try to carry this season through, if it wasn't worth it financially.

Shortened season, contrived playoffs, no home or away team advantage, no home crowd, no crowd at all for that matter, nothing really parallel with a normal end of season .......

IF it happens at all there might be a curiosity watching the players in a virtual vacuum.

There was a shortened season 2012-2013 and I've never heard of an asterisk being attached to the Hawks winning that year.

I think 70 or so games is enough of a sample size to determine which teams deserve to be in the postseason and which teams don't. You still have to win four rounds, beat out four teams (some of the teams have to beat 5 teams, win 5 series). The argument for home ice advantage isn't really there anymore when you look at the past playoffs, there really isn't an advantage there anymore.

Only players complaining about an asterisk are on the teams not playing anymore this year. The same goes for this year as any other year, you win, you're remembered forever and you get your name on the Cup.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I've heard reports about $400-500M being saved. About half of what they would lose if they canceled the rest of the season. I assure you, they wouldn't try to carry this season through, if it wasn't worth it financially.

I think something like $400-500M would be about the threshold that would make it clearly worthwhile, anyway. But I just wonder how they could get that much. Consider that their annual national TV deal only gets them $200M. How are they doubling that for a 2 month tournament that maybe also costs them an additional $50M to stage?

I'm not doubting that they have good reasons. But I just want to know more details on what those reasons actually are.

As fans, we win either way, whatever their reasons. So it's not keeping me awake at night or anything. Just some mild curiosity.

 

[Scoresberg]

I think something like $400-500M would be about the threshold that would make it clearly worthwhile, anyway. But I just wonder how they could get that much. Consider that their annual national TV deal only gets them $200M. How are they doubling that for a 2 month tournament that maybe also costs them an additional $50M to stage?

I'm not doubting that they have good reasons. But I just want to know more details on what those reasons actually are.

As fans, we win either way, whatever their reasons. So it's not keeping me awake at night or anything. Just some mild curiosity.

That's a fair point I haven't heard all the revenue streams they are getting. They are able to carry through TV deals and sponsor deals but lose the gate revenue.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Going back to the Rinne/Saros question I wonder if us and maybe some other teams will try to go with a tandem type situation? You normally never see that in the playoffs but with the lack of conditioning I'm sure most of these guys have it might not be a bad idea to get more rest for your goalies. It's also a situation that may be decent for us having a lot of bottom six options that we can rotate in and out as well.

As far as the asterisk on any title goes sure it's different, but the Stanley cup has had plenty of other weird formats over its history. Early on you had challenge games where the Cup was essentially like a champion belt in boxing. Once the NHL came around they had other weird formats to win it. During the eighties 16 of 21 teams made the playoffs which is essentially the same percentage we see now so it isn't necessarily unprecedented. In the immediate aftermath all the losers will say it doesn't count as a real Cup win, but give it 20 or 30 years and it'll just be another byline in the weird history of the league. Then again my number two sport is college football and their championship system has always been ludicrous so maybe I just have a higher tolerance for championship shenanigans.

 

[PredsV82]

First, and I may be wrong, but I think this is at least in part a gamble by Bettman that having hockey to watch with no other sports to compete with will lead to an increase in overall hockey fandom. People are clearly starving for any kind of live sports programming.

Second, and again some of you may disagree, but I dont think there is a chance in hell of having fans in attendance indoors in October, and it's one thing to have the playoffs of an unfinished season finished without fans, but it's another entirely to propose starting the next regular season with no gate income.

So I think the current plan is making the best of a very bad situation.

 

[drwpreds]

First, and I may be wrong, but I think this is at least in part a gamble by Bettman that having hockey to watch with no other sports to compete with will lead to an increase in overall hockey fandom. People are clearly starving for any kind of live sports programming.

Second, and again some of you may disagree, but I dont think there is a chance in hell of having fans in attendance indoors in October, and it's one thing to have the playoffs of an unfinished season finished without fans, but it's another entirely to propose starting the next regular season with no gate income.

So I think the current plan is making the best of a very bad situation.

I agree that if this enables us to have a full 82 game season for 2021 that, say, starts in January- and that late start means we are back to having normal fans in the stands, then that would make everything they are doing now 100% worth it to me.

It will be interesting to see how things stand come September and October- if the current trend continues maybe, just maybe we will be able to have fans sooner than we think

One other thought- if the 2021 season is played in full and starts in January, then we are once again going to have the playoffs running all the way into possibly September. How are we ever going to get back on track as far as a regular October-June season??

 

[FossilFndr]

There was a shortened season 2012-2013 and I've never heard of an asterisk being attached to the Hawks winning that year.

Shortened season was just one of my points, in the season you mentioned the games were played with fans, in normal cities. This is distinctly different.

 

[Adz]

There was a shortened season 2012-2013 and I've never heard of an asterisk being attached to the Hawks winning that year.

I kind of did. The 2004-2005 season was the first lockout I'd experienced so once the lockout of the 12-13 season began, I moved on -- hockey wasn't going to happen. And then it did. Those games just never felt like the real thing. Probably would have if we'd been competitive, but the season just felt forced all around. So in my mind there is definitely an asterisk attached. Also that makes it so Chicago didn't win a full Cup. It was a demitasse.

 

[FossilFndr]

I turned on a live soccer game last night in an empty stadium and though I could not understand the language the players voices could be heard. That would not happen with noisy crowds. One of the things I've wanted was to hear the players in NHL during play. If play does indeed return I hope that the players voices are not drowned out by some overlay sound track. Even if there is a few second delay in order to bleep some words I hope we can hear player interaction and banter.

 

[bdub24]

Over/under on Marchand trying to lick people?

 

[Adz]

I turned on a live soccer game last night in an empty stadium and though I could not understand the language the players voices could be heard. That would not happen with noisy crowds. One of the things I've wanted was to hear the players in NHL during play. If play does indeed return I hope that the players voices are not drowned out by some overlay sound track. Even if there is a few second delay in order to bleep some words I hope we can hear player interaction and banter.

Back in the early 2000's when Preds games were poorly attended, I had seats on the 4th row. I'm guessing on this night we may have had 6000 in the stands. Kimmo Timonen was called for hooking. His words to the ref could be heard going to the penalty box. "Hooking? HOOKING??? That was CLEARLY slashing."

 

[FossilFndr]

I even said that I would pay for a feed that had player interaction, regardless of language. Like HBO etc.

I like your seats now!

 

[NoNecksCurse]

Over/under on Marchand trying to lick people?

1.5

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Over/under on Marchand trying to lick people?

He's kind of an innovator. Maybe he'll just "breathe on people" or something. The licking is already been there done that for him.

 

[PredsV82]

He's kind of an innovator. Maybe he'll just "breathe on people" or something. The licking is already been there done that for him.

They should force him to wear a full cage...

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

They should force him to wear a full cage...

Transparent full shield, but give him the Hannibal Lecter mask under it just for effect, say...

 

[bdub24]

If they play in LA its gonna be real tough for me to resist at least not driving by the arena.

 

[sparkle twin]

2017 Playoffs Round 3, Game 3 vs Anaheim.

Western. Conference. Final.

First home game in the 3rd round!

Fox Sports TN, 7pm (Central)
Replay at 11pm, 5am (Fri), 12pm (Fri)

*Also available on the FSGo App!


Post-Game Talk: - WIN!! - WCF - Game 3 - 5/16 @ 7:00 - NSH Leads 2-1

 

[drwpreds]

So it was announced today that official training camps will not begin until at least July 10, and even that is not a guarantee.

JULY 10?? That is 42 freaking days from now. We are still in May and we might be looking at August before the season starts back.

Completely ridiculous- just shut the thing down and start next season on time...….

 

[predfan98]

What’s even more ridiculous is that they are going to test the players every day.... sorry, too elitist for me. Take those machines and put them where they are needed more... this is a waste of resources....
Also talked about initially playing in just 2 places initially.

 

[NoNecksCurse]

So it was announced today that official training camps will not begin until at least July 10, and even that is not a guarantee.

JULY 10?? That is 42 freaking days from now. We are still in May and we might be looking at August before the season starts back.

Completely ridiculous- just shut the thing down and start next season on time...….

Agreed.