All of the scenarios have been explained a million times, but okay.
Carolina has 2 1st round picks, theirs and Toronto's, but they only get Toronto's if it is outside the top 10. Toronto's pick can only be inside the top 10 if they win 1st overall.
We get whichever of the two picks is worst. If Toronto wins 1st overall, we get Carolina's pick, which will likely be 14th overall at best. If Carolina wins 1st overall, we get Toronto's pick, which will likely be 14th overall at best.
Prior to phase 1 of the lottery, there was a scenario where we could have gotten the 1st overall pick with the pick we acquired from Carolina, but it required that at least 2 of the top 3 picks were won by place-holder teams, so that both Carolina and Toronto could win a top 3 pick and give one to us. That didn't happen. Now, our only chance at 1st overall is if we lose to Carolina in the play-in and then win phase 2 of the lottery.