Speculation: Nylander V - The Management Strikes Back (ALL Nylander Discussion HERE)

[The Burdened]

I personally like Ehlers more, but Nylander is not going to take a bargain contract just because Ehlers has a questionable agent who did his client a disservice.

They asked for a contract at Draisaitl Cap % knowing full well they will not get it.
More than likely, Gross wants Nylander to come in somewhere in between Pastrnak & Gaudreau's Cap % (likely settling closer to Pasta's Cap %)

Pasta's Cap % is fair for Nylander, but Toronto won't pay it.
They want him closer to 6.25 and in their minds they'll spin it as "be happy! that's 250k more than Ehlers!" when in reality it's less than what Ehlers would make today if he negotiated a contract at the same Cap % he did at the time

 

[Huck Cheever]

Facts:

-Tavares got $11 million per
-Tavares never hit 40 goals
-Tavares got ZERO pts in 2014 Olympics
-Tavares got ONE goal at the Wcup
-Tavares got 70 and 66 pts before last yr

-Nylander is asking 3 million less and is only 22 years old

I'll just leave this here...

 

[NeverForget06]

Facts:

-Tavares got $11 million per
-Tavares never hit 40 goals
-Tavares got ZERO pts in 2014 Olympics
-Tavares got ONE goal at the Wcup
-Tavares got 70 and 66 pts before last yr

-Nylander is asking 3 million less and is only 22 years old

I'll just leave this here...

Facts:
- Tavares was one of the biggest UFAs to ever hit the market and could command basically any price he wanted.

- Nylander is an RFA with no arbitration rights on a team deep at forward.

 

[Huck Cheever]

Facts:
- Tavares was one of the biggest UFAs to ever hit the market and could command basically any price he wanted.

- Nylander is an RFA with no arbitration rights on a team deep at forward.

Deep team who lost to ottawa and had hard time with mtl.

 

[NeverForget06]

Deep team who lost to mtl and had hard time with ottawa.

Other way around, and also I'm an Oilers fan and hate the leafs so you aren't going to get me to argue with you. I just think your line of reasoning was missing the biggest factor in the two negotiations you compared.

 

[Huck Cheever]

Other way around, and also I'm an Oilers fan and hate the leafs so you aren't going to get me to argue with you. I just think your line of reasoning was missing the biggest factor in the two negotiations you compared.

I don't have an agenda with my statements, i was just stating facts...

 

[Riseonfire]

Facts:

-Tavares got $11 million per
-Tavares never hit 40 goals
-Tavares got ZERO pts in 2014 Olympics
-Tavares got ONE goal at the Wcup
-Tavares got 70 and 66 pts before last yr

-Nylander is asking 3 million less and is only 22 years old

I'll just leave this here...

The dude tore his MCL after getting some 4th line minutes.

 

[Albz]

Facts:

-Tavares got $11 million per
-Tavares never hit 40 goals
-Tavares got ZERO pts in 2014 Olympics
-Tavares got ONE goal at the Wcup
-Tavares got 70 and 66 pts before last yr

-Nylander is asking 3 million less and is only 22 years old

I'll just leave this here...

Oh man what the heck is this post lmao..

 

[Huck Cheever]

Oh man what the heck is this post lmao..

You act like I'm lying?...

 

[Dekes For Days]

I personally like Ehlers more, but Nylander is not going to take a bargain contract just because Ehlers has a questionable agent who did his client a disservice.

Right... so we can just ignore the most relevant comparable (who you call better) because you think the agent didn't bother to negotiate, and it doesn't fit your argument so it's unfair. Seems legit.

More than likely, Gross wants Nylander to come in somewhere in between Pastrnak & Gaudreau's Cap %

So he should get in between 2 players who are clearly better than him... why exactly?

First off, let's get one thing straight. Your PPG for Pastrnak is wrong. You got the points right, but marked down 157 games when he only played 126. His PPG under your system was 0.76.

Gadreau was a PPG player, the team's best player, with more goals, explosive speed, a great playoffs, and a better prior year. He was on another level entirely. He also had the same agent, which only solidifies the idea that he should be below 7; probably well below.

Pastrnak was a 35-40 goal, 70-75 point player when he signed. Even though your corrected PPG rate for Pastrnak shows he was above Nylander, it also undervalues him because the final year was the only year he got actual play-time, PP time, and opportunities, that Nylander has been getting since he entered the league. With it, he showed dynamite potential, which is a significant negotiating chip.

So really, all you have done is laid out exactly why Nylander should be getting in the low 6s at most. Thank you.

 

[AvatarAang]

Facts:

-Tavares got $11 million per
-Tavares never hit 40 goals
-Tavares got ZERO pts in 2014 Olympics
-Tavares got ONE goal at the Wcup
-Tavares got 70 and 66 pts before last yr

-Nylander is asking 3 million less and is only 22 years old

I'll just leave this here...

Please don't leave your garbage posts here, I think you're looking for hockeybuzz

 

[Huck Cheever]

Please don't leave your garbage posts here, I think you're looking for hockeybuzz

Oh i'm sorry, are you offended by facts? I didn't have an agenda, I'm being objective about what relative contracts are worth...

 

[FalcorMulch]

I don't have an agenda with my statements, i was just stating facts...

Lol

 

[airbus220]

what Ehlers would make today if he negotiated a contract at the same Cap % he did at the time

In 2016/17 42 players had more than 61 points.
Last season 71 players had more than 61 points.
Signing a contract now should pay less.

 

[Todd1a]

Toronto should trade nylander for a defenseman do they really need nylander? More then a d man ?

 

[The Burdened]

Right... so we can just ignore the most relevant comparable (who you call better) because you think the agent didn't bother to negotiate, and it doesn't fit your argument so it's unfair. Seems legit.


So he should get in between 2 players who are clearly better than him... why exactly?

First off, let's get one thing straight. Your PPG for Pastrnak is wrong. You got the points right, but marked down 157 games when he only played 126. His PPG under your system was 0.76.

Gadreau was a PPG player, the team's best player, with more goals, explosive speed, a great playoffs, and a better prior year. He was on another level entirely. He also had the same agent, which only solidifies the idea that he should be below 7; probably well below.

Pastrnak was a 35-40 goal, 70-75 point player when he signed. Even though your corrected PPG rate for Pastrnak shows he was above Nylander, it also undervalues him because the final year was the only year he got actual play-time, PP time, and opportunities, that Nylander has been getting since he entered the league. With it, he showed dynamite potential, which is a significant negotiating chip.

So really, all you have done is laid out exactly why Nylander should be getting in the low 6s at most. Thank you.

Good call on Pasta's GP. My error.

I'm with you on him not being able to command what Johnny did. As you said, Johnny was their highest end player and all they had in regards to super high-end forwards. They had to pay him.

Whether you like it or not, Pastrnak's Cap % is the realistic comp and I don't believe Gross will not move from that. He came in asking for Drai money so he could negotiate down to a more realistic Cap % like Pasta's.

Also, unlike Pastrnak, Nylander is a C and that adds some extra value/importance and helps bridge the stat gap between the players.

 

[Dekes For Days]

-Tavares got $11 million per

Yep, a great price for the best UFA in a decade.

-Tavares never hit 40 goals

Irrelevant, he paced over 40 goals, and he hit 37 and 38 goals all in different years, but sure.

-Tavares got ZERO pts in 2014 Olympics
-Tavares got ONE goal at the Wcup

Which means absolutely nothing in the NHL.

-Tavares got 70 and 66 pts before last yr

Technically yes, in less than 82 games both times, while also going PPG and getting 6 goals in 11 playoff games, while on pretty bad teams with no support around him. And then had 37 goals and 84 points last year, going PPG just as he did for the 4 consecutive years prior to the ones you mentioned.

-Nylander is asking 3 million less and is only 22 years old

Yes, he is 22, which means he is an RFA, not an open market UFA. Which means an equal player would get considerably less, and he is nowhere close to an equal player. They are horrible comparables in essentially every possible way.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Good call on Pasta's GP. My error.

I'm with you on him not being able to command what Johnny did. As you said, Johnny was their highest end player and all they had in regards to super high-end forwards. They had to pay him.

Whether you like it or not, Pastrnak's Cap % is the realistic comp and I don't believe Gross will not move from that. He came in asking for Drai money so he could negotiate down to a more realistic Cap % like Pasta's.

Also, unlike Pastrnak, Nylander is a C and that adds some extra value/importance and helps bridge the stat gap between the players.

He is a winger.

 

[HockeyDBspecialist]

Toronto are so screwd, Nylander at 8M, Marner will ask 9M and Matthews 11M


This is going to be fun to watch

 

[Dekes For Days]

Deep team who lost to ottawa and had hard time with mtl.

They scored 3 goals in both games. They won one game, and lost the other where they dominated and their goalie had a horrible game, which Nylander would not have changed. They are extremely deep at forward, both in terms of high-end players and depth. That doesn't change because of singular wins or losses.

 

[The Burdened]

He is a winger.

-takes 750 faceoffs last year @ 51% and 50 faceoffs in the playoffs @ 60%
-is not a C. he's a winger.

pick one

 

[tony d]

They got to do something soon. Either trade him or sign him. No in between. I think the former happens.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

-takes 750 faceoffs last year @ 51% and 50 faceoffs in the playoffs @ 60%
-is not a C. he's a winger.

pick one

He takes draws on his strong side....He literally plays on the wing. That is his position. He is on a line with this guy called Auston Matthews.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Whether you like it or not, Pastrnak's Cap % is the realistic comp and I don't believe Gross will not move from that. He came in asking for Drai money so he could negotiate down to a more realistic Cap % like Pasta's.

Except you haven't laid out any reason why it's the "realistic" comp, or why he will get it. All you have done is ignore the evidence presented and go "well, I think this guy with no leverage wants it, so..".

You also haven't given a legitimate reason why Ehlers' contract, the most relevant comparable by far, should be ignored.

Most recent season means more than 2 seasons prior, especially for young players, and especially when you were injured and you weren't getting offensive opportunities. Pastrnak was given that opportunity, and went to another level. Nylander had those opportunities since he entered the league, and hasn't improved on those numbers since. That means a lot in negotiations.

Also, unlike Pastrnak, Nylander is a C and that adds some extra value/importance and helps bridge the stat gap between the players.

Nylander is not a center. Any time he played center in the NHL, he was worse, and he will be RW for the duration of whatever contract he signs with Toronto. On the wing of one of the best young centers in the game, so not really in a position to argue that he's been put in any kind of unfavourable position.

 

[The Burdened]

He takes draws on his strong side....He literally plays on the wing. That is his position. He is on a line with this guy called Auston Matthews.

How Toronto chooses to deploy him after he wins draws is their business.
Nylander has played C, can be a C and will be a C on the team that acquires him.

tbh these are similar mental gymnastics people did when Draisaitl signed. "he's not a C he's winger. can't play C. nope. not a C." Surprise. Draisaitl is a C.