Speculation: Nylander V - The Management Strikes Back (ALL Nylander Discussion HERE)

Discussion in 'Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk' started by tmlfan98, Oct 5, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. tmlfan98

    tmlfan98 #TeamAssetManagement

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2012
    Messages:
    1,012
    Likes Received:
    119
    Trophy Points:
    81
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Uni Student
    Location:
    The Hockey Mecca
    :cbj
    William Nylander (pre-negotiated extension)
    Ron Hainsey
    2019 lottery protected 1st (becomes a 2019 2nd if Leafs miss the playoffs)
    2020 conditional 1st (if Panarin re-signs)

    :leafs
    Artemi Panarin
    David Savard
    Vitaly Abramov

    Edit: added Abramov, adjusted conditions on the 1st pick and added another conditional pick from the Leafs.
     
    Last edited: Oct 5, 2018
  2. SHANNYPLAN

    SHANNYPLAN Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2016
    Messages:
    2,642
    Likes Received:
    960
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Not trading Nylander with a pre negotiated ext unless we’re getting panarin with one aswell
     
  3. Eb

    Eb Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 27, 2011
    Messages:
    7,504
    Likes Received:
    373
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    Toronto
    No thx Jeff
     
  4. Captain Controversy

    Captain Controversy Registered User

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2015
    Messages:
    1,915
    Likes Received:
    211
    Trophy Points:
    66
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Electrician.
    Location:
    Alberta
    Ugh. Toronto will say no if panarin is only a rental
     
  5. SHANNYPLAN

    SHANNYPLAN Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2016
    Messages:
    2,642
    Likes Received:
    960
    Trophy Points:
    94
    That’s actually insanely bad asset management

    Your giving a 22 year old star away for a rental
     
    WesMcCauley likes this.
  6. DRW204

    DRW204 Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 26, 2010
    Messages:
    4,359
    Likes Received:
    2,368
    Trophy Points:
    126
    brutal for all involved.
     
  7. Viqsi

    Viqsi thirtysomething grumpy grandma

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2007
    Messages:
    36,306
    Likes Received:
    4,841
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Gender:
    Female
    Occupation:
    Jackets 1st, Preds 2nd
    Location:
    Kölumboos
    This isn't the first time we've seen what amounts to Nylander+ for Panarin and Savard. We can't do it right now because of the Jones injury, and it only makes sense for the Leafs if it becomes clear Nylander will not sign with Toronto but will sign with Columbus - which seems a bit of a stretch.

    * * *​
    A signed Panarin is considerably more valuable than that.
     
    Empoleon8771 and Grabner like this.
  8. SHANNYPLAN

    SHANNYPLAN Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2016
    Messages:
    2,642
    Likes Received:
    960
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Yeah, but it wouldn’t matter to clb since he said he wouldn’t re sign with them, would it?
     
  9. BAM

    BAM Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2016
    Messages:
    2,111
    Likes Received:
    802
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Except for the fact that everyone knows Panarin is leaving the Jackets. It's not like there's a shot of him re-signing. The Jackets don't get extra value for the negotiations Panarin makes with the team he's being traded to. The Jackets will get low-ball offers for Panarin similar to Karlsson because everybody knows he's gone once July.1 hits.
     
  10. Viqsi

    Viqsi thirtysomething grumpy grandma

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2007
    Messages:
    36,306
    Likes Received:
    4,841
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Gender:
    Female
    Occupation:
    Jackets 1st, Preds 2nd
    Location:
    Kölumboos
    It matters a great deal to us because having Panarin as a rental is something that has high value to us as well.

    And there's a subtle bit that folks keep missing in Panarin proposals - it's not "I don't want to sign with Columbus", it's "I want to test free agency". He's been very explicit about the latter. Just because some folks like to use it as a euphemism for "get me the hell out of here" doesn't mean that's Panarin's plan - every indication we've gotten is that he's not pre-negotiating a damn thing. Normally the difference is academic, but there's plenty of indications that he really likes it here, so we're not totally out of the running like we would normally be. (That said, most folks still expect him ultimately to leave.)
     
    CBJFan827 likes this.
  11. Viqsi

    Viqsi thirtysomething grumpy grandma

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2007
    Messages:
    36,306
    Likes Received:
    4,841
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Gender:
    Female
    Occupation:
    Jackets 1st, Preds 2nd
    Location:
    Kölumboos
    This is wrong for three reasons:
    1) It assumes that there is no hope of Panarin signing (there is, it's just a very small one), AND
    2) It further assumes that, due to mistaken assumption #1, that there is no profit in allowing Panarin to stay because "he's disgruntled and wants to leave" (not the case; he wants to explore the League rather than committing in advance)
    3) It even further assumes that, due to both of the above, that the Jackets should and must trade Panarin for anything valuable we can possibly get before the situation turns toxic or we "lose him for nothing" or whatever.

    We are not Ottawa. We are not the New York Islanders, either. Please stop presuming those scenarios apply in full.


    EDIT: There's a fourth issue I missed - it assumes that Jackets fans are presuming there's value to be had in Panarin pre-negotiating an extension. That's BS because a) we're basing it on his value as a rental to us, and b) we all know quite well he's not pre-negotiating anything with anybody at all, not just us.
     
    JoeThorntonsRooster likes this.
  12. tmlfan98

    tmlfan98 #TeamAssetManagement

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2012
    Messages:
    1,012
    Likes Received:
    119
    Trophy Points:
    81
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Uni Student
    Location:
    The Hockey Mecca
    This proposal is also based off of the assumption Nylander sticks to his 8-8.5M ask and doesn't cave like Gaudreau (which is what I still think will end up happening).

    The fact is Nylander is not worth 8+, so he will not get it from the Leafs. Max he's worth is the Tarasenko contract. If he doesn't bring his ask down to at least that, the Leafs would be better off trading him.
     
    Viqsi likes this.
  13. BAM

    BAM Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2016
    Messages:
    2,111
    Likes Received:
    802
    Trophy Points:
    94
    1. Where has there been any indication Panarin is not leaving? Honestly curious
    2. You guys are about to be the Isles 2.0 with JT leaving them
    3. If I were you guys, I'd keep him and see how you're doing at the TDL, if you're having a great season and holding down a divisional spot, I'd ride it out with him. If you guys are barely hanging onto a WC spot, I'd trade him for a 1st +
     
  14. ForrestHabsGump

    ForrestHabsGump Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2018
    Messages:
    1,832
    Likes Received:
    696
    Trophy Points:
    81
    Location:
    Montreal
    He explicitly said he wanted to play in a big city for him and his Girlfriend, No way he stays in a city like Columbus when he could play in Los Angeles or Chicago. Ohio is not a hockey state, far from it.
     
  15. Viqsi

    Viqsi thirtysomething grumpy grandma

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2007
    Messages:
    36,306
    Likes Received:
    4,841
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Gender:
    Female
    Occupation:
    Jackets 1st, Preds 2nd
    Location:
    Kölumboos
    This is a misphrasing of the situation. He wants to see what else is out there. It's not "I want away from Columbus", it's "I want to see what the rest of the League is like."

    I'm sorry, how many games did the Islanders' series with the eventual Cup Champions last year go, again?

    We. Are. Not. The. Islanders.

    That's close to what the plan appears to be, only I think the threshold for "trade him for what you can get" is a bit lower than that.
     
  16. Viqsi

    Viqsi thirtysomething grumpy grandma

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2007
    Messages:
    36,306
    Likes Received:
    4,841
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Gender:
    Female
    Occupation:
    Jackets 1st, Preds 2nd
    Location:
    Kölumboos
    :eyeroll: No, he didn't say that. There have been indications that he likes larger cities, but nothing explicit, and the "girlfriend" connection was explicitly debunked a long time ago.

    And you are arguing the wrong point to begin with. Whether or not he leaves here is immaterial w/r/t our value of the guy. We value him as an elite-level rental of exactly the sort of skillset we need. That's not something a team gives up easily. His status does not affect the price in any way; the only thing it affects is whether or not someone else is willing to pay it - and we are not in a position such that we are obliged to sell for "whatever we can get", so that's not some kind of problem to be solved.
     
    CBJFan827 likes this.
  17. BAM

    BAM Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2016
    Messages:
    2,111
    Likes Received:
    802
    Trophy Points:
    94
    1. LOL what else do you think that means? He signs one year deals with teams he wants to play for and then returns to the Jackets after he's done exploring?

    2. No the team isn't, however the principle of potentially losing your best forward for nothing is the same.
     
    Tweed likes this.
  18. easton117

    easton117 Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2017
    Messages:
    2,025
    Likes Received:
    1,493
    Trophy Points:
    84
    Gender:
    Male
    Not saying this deal is a good one either way, but just out of curiosity when would you want CBJ to let Panarin go?

    Like 4th in the division come the TDL? Outside looking in at that time?

    Or ride out the season and go the pray for a miracle in the summer type thing?

    Again, not judging. If Bergeron was in this spot I don’t know what I’d want either.
     
  19. ForrestHabsGump

    ForrestHabsGump Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2018
    Messages:
    1,832
    Likes Received:
    696
    Trophy Points:
    81
    Location:
    Montreal
    Oh I totally agree, you are going to receive an amazing offer in February or before.
    Even a rental like Panarin would bring more than what the OP offered.
    Let's say your DG trades Panarin in Los angeles and he signs there as the trade goes on, The return would be big seeing what Pacioretty got us.

    Only thing that scares me is the price asked, some teams don't want to trade as much for a Guy who might be on his third team after 4 years.
    As a Superstar elite player, we rarely see a player as good move from teams to teams so much so early in a career.

    I Really hope you sign this franchise player though.
     
  20. Viqsi

    Viqsi thirtysomething grumpy grandma

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2007
    Messages:
    36,306
    Likes Received:
    4,841
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Gender:
    Female
    Occupation:
    Jackets 1st, Preds 2nd
    Location:
    Kölumboos
    All it means is that the situation isn't a desperate one, and therefore there's no rush to trade him.

    This is the wrong comparison. There's two questions that go into that evaluation.

    The first is "what impact on the team does losing this guy after this year have?" Some teams can more readily weather the loss of their best forward than others. Columbus isn't the best example (better examples would be Pittsburgh or Toronto), but our competitiveness has a lot more to do with our blueline and goaltending skill than it does our forwards. Losing Panarin sucks and it's obviously preferable to keep him if at all possible, but we've played well (and made the playoffs) without him before.

    The second is "what impact on the team does trading him for assets during this year have?" Consider the sorts of possible returns we could get from a trade:
    • Depth scoring forwards: not useful to us; we've got so damn many of these that such guys would have nowhere to play - so the team would be made worse this year by Panarin's absence, and we'd also likely be losing valuable assets to waivers
    • Picks and generic young prospects: not useful to us unless we're getting a future superstar; we already have one of the youngest teams in the League and are trying to start competing now, so the team's made weaker now by Panarin's absence, and not improved in the future because we still have a metric ****ton of depth as is
    • Young up-and-coming forwards: not useful to us; we already have a ton of these guys, so we're going to end up in the same "weakening the team for effectively nothing" situation (see "Depth scoring forwards", above)
    • Young up-and-coming defensemen: left as an exercise for the reader ;)
    • Goaltending, of any kind: LOL
    • Replacement elite superstar scoring forward: being in fantasyland is fun but it's not possible to live there
    • Replacement star scoring forward: also unlikely, but you can't win if you don't try
    So, really, the idea of trading him is less "get what you can for him before you lose" and more holding out hope for an unlikely return, because most of the possible returns do not actually improve the team now, and are vanishingly unlikely to do so in the future.
     
  21. Viqsi

    Viqsi thirtysomething grumpy grandma

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2007
    Messages:
    36,306
    Likes Received:
    4,841
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Gender:
    Female
    Occupation:
    Jackets 1st, Preds 2nd
    Location:
    Kölumboos
    Personally? I don't see a likely scenario in which we don't make the playoffs, and in that case I want to ride through. The exception is if we're a bubble team at best at the deadline and get an impossibly good offer.
     
  22. easton117

    easton117 Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2017
    Messages:
    2,025
    Likes Received:
    1,493
    Trophy Points:
    84
    Gender:
    Male
    Ya I think they make it too unless the wheels fall off your goalie.

    Always tough these ufa deals. You need the guy, don’t want to lose the guy, but don’t want to get nothing for the guy....
     
  23. Digitalbooya

    Digitalbooya Osiecki death stare

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2010
    Messages:
    13,077
    Likes Received:
    709
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Occupation:
    Student
    Location:
    Indiana/Wisconsin
    There is a star involved in this deal but it isn’t Nylander. At least not yet. I do agree it’s bad asset management though.
     
  24. Pi

    Pi Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2010
    Messages:
    43,402
    Likes Received:
    4,811
    Trophy Points:
    157
    Location:
    Toronto
    No thanks. If Panarin is traded as a rental, he's not getting anywhere close to Nylander in value. Rest of the pieces going both way don't really matter too much to either team.
     
  25. audfroid

    audfroid Registered User

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2002
    Messages:
    227
    Likes Received:
    0
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Location:
    Calgary
    Just trying to gauge how close this would be for both the Leafs and the Flames..

    Leafs trade: William Nylander (Flames given permission to talk to and sign) and 1 of Andreas Borgman or Calle Rosen

    Flames trade: Juuso Valimaki, Sam Bennett and Michael Stone (for cap purposes)

    Justification for Leafs - They get a young potential top 4 in Valimaki and a wild card in the development of Sam Bennett. Stone would even out Salaries and offer Depth on D.

    Justification for Flames - They get a young controllable asset who will upgrade their top 6 and woeful powerplay. They can replace Valimaki with their great depth on D and an equally young Rasmus Andersson. Borgman or Rosen replaces Stone for depth at a much better cost.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"