Confirmed with Link: Nylander Re-signs: 6 Year x $6.9 AAV Part II

[4thline]

Really? So capfriendly still has it wrong?

Yes and no.
The agreed upon 10+ million in year one is "right" but due to sitting out Nylander only get's paid 8ish of that, meaning that Nylander only recieves 42m of the 45 "face value" of the contract.
Both parties knew that this would happen, they were negotiating the true value of the deal. The face value was a means to an end.

 

[FalcorMulch]

I mean the contact is 45 million over 6 so Willy came down to 7.5 million AAV.

Don't think he gives a rat ass what the cap hit is. He got paid close to what he wanted when he was asking for way too much.

Certainly an overpayment, especially as it only buy 1 UFA year but whatever. It is palatable and allows the leafs to ice one of the best teams of the cap era.

Except he won’t actually get paid $45 million. That’s a number written on a piece of paper somewhere, it’s not real. The cap hit is literally the average annual amount of money Nylander will earn over 6 years ($41.5 million). So yes, that is the number Nylander cares about.

 

[ITM]

Exactly and Lewis Gross knew that and used it to his advantage..

- Here we have a new inexperience GM at the helm who is building his own NHL resume and in the history of the CBA and salary Cap no RFA player has ever sat out the year. No GM was ever not able to find common ground.. That was not something Dubas wanted on his record to suggest he wasn't able to close a deal nor go over the cliff with Willy to obtain it ... Strike #1 for Dubas

- Leafs have lots of cap space this year so Gross also knew it was to his advantage to take this to the wire to get his deal, because Leafs could easily take a big $10 mil cap hit in year #1 and benefited in future years because of the CBA clause and how to handle late signings and lower AAV hits when Leafs needed it.... Strike #2 for Dubas

- This is Leafs best season to take a run at the Cup just going all-in with JT and having Matthews and Marner on ELC contracts. Next year Leafs will have real cap issues when resigning players and tough roster decisions will bite hard into team depth. So Dubas sitting Nylander a self inflicted wound and hurting Leafs chances this year was never a real option... If Leafs bowed out of the playoffs he would have been ripped to shreds on his decision to voluntarily sit Nylander out ... Strike #3 for Dubas

Game Over and Lewis Gross knew this all from the start and had the time to see it to the bitter end to get what he wanted for Nylander.

#1 - You're imputing meaning in a scenario that you have no reasonable inference to conclude.

#2 - So Gross effectively sat his player out for months only to yield Dubas a friendly $6.9M hit for a player with back to back 60 points seasons as a 20 and 21 year old, whose hasn't played top PP minutes and who didn't play with Matthews 25% of the time. It's reasonable to project improvement. So who knows...Maybe Nylander is worth $8.5M/yr...I know we're all hoping for it, right?

#3 - This is NOT the best season to take a run at the Cup. The entire premise of locking up the big three and signing John Tavares is to be a perennial contender and moreover a championship organization measured in decades. The FACT that Dubas received a call with 30 minutes left before Gross effectively obligated Nylander to sit out a season demonstrates that Gross (if the reports were true re: Draisaitl money) sat out his client on a gamble of an extra $1.4M a year. Said differently, a season's pay at approximately $8.4/5M was the bet...And Gross lost that bet.

The Leafs may "bow out" of the playoffs this year. Given how contention works, it's likely. But that doesn't rest and fall on Gross' unreasonable negotiation tactics that didn't achieve his personal goal. What was achieved was Dubas confirming that subsequent deals could yield players sitting out an entire season unless they call our inexperienced GM with minutes left on the clock...Because it's going to be understood, there is a Maple Leafs hardline and it's not Kyle Dubas that's going to call when that deadline approaches.

And yes, Shanahan seems to be the shadow behind Dubas and over agents like Gross that's going to make sure that's the case every time, just like this time.

 

[Mess]

Jesus Mess, by your accounts Dubas was in a no-win position because a lot of these factors were beyond his control. Yet he's the one that strikes out and is a failure? Hmm...

The only way Dubas wins was by going down swinging and show he wasn't a push over in contract negotiations. To do that he had to do what was in the Leafs best interest and not his own personal interest. He didn't cave early and fought hard at the plate until the bitter end..He didn't let his own ego get in the way and willingly go over the cliff with Willy which helped no one.

Getting Nylander signed is a big win for him, because it helps the team he manages get stronger and more Cup competitive the #1 goal here. The teams success on the ice is how the performance of the GM is measured. The more the Leafs win the better Dubas looks in the big picture, and if it results in a Cup win than Kyle gets a great big STAR for a job well done.

He wins because he also used MLSE financial wherewithal to front-load the deal with signing bonuses so that 40% of Nylander contract including $17.7 mil is paid in full on July 1st 2019.. That makes the Nylander contract very movable in the future should Leafs run into cap issues and need to make sacrifices. In fact it appears to be created by Dubas for exactly that purpose which again helps the team manage the cap going forward via flexibility and options via its structure.

Holding out until the last day is also a win for Dubas because of the way the CBA handles RFA signings for holdouts.. .Leafs are taking a massive $10,277,778 mil cap hit in year #1 when they have lots of cap space to absorb it, and benefit in years 2-6 with a lower AAV when they need the space most.

So Dubas lost the war and struck out on his attempt to get Nylander at a cap friendly deal because the deck was stacked against him, but he did come away winning some important smaller battles along the way that puts the Leafs into a better winning position going forward.

Those battles that Dubas did win did not come at the expense of Nylander however, and this contract battle, so those are things Gross/Nylander would gladly give him as few foul tip balls on his way going down swinging to keep my baseball analogy going.

In the end it was a Win all around as Leafs Win (Leafs got stronger) -- Nylander Wins (got his $$ he wanted) -- Leafs Nation Wins (Willy is back in the fold to cheer on) -- Dubas wins as he did his job and did what was best for everyone involved.

 

[ITM]

So you think Leafs started at 6.5 in the summer and only moved to 6.99 yesterday? I believe Leafs started at 6 and refused to go to 7.

I think the ceiling for Toronto was $6.5 using comparables (i.e. Pastrnak) but the plea (e.g. "a little less") was $6M.

Gross' initial strong pitch was - reportedly - "Leon Draisaitl money".

My sense is, Toronto knew and acknowledged Nylander's worth at Pastrnak money, wanted him to take " a little less", but subsequently, both amounts weren't appropriate offers given Gross' representation that Nylander was worth Draisaitl's contract.

So I think Toronto was prepared to limit their offer at 6.5 , Gross then likely moved Nylander's asking to an initial uncomfortable compromise at 7.5. The middle of the uncomfortable compromises is right around 6.9...That seems the most reasonable back and forth, all things considered.

 

[ITM]

Ya but the first season is $10.27 million so the avarage annual value is 7.5 million (according to capfriendly)

You'd have to help me out, brother...Just went to the site and still see an AAV this year at $10.27M and subsequent years at $6.9M. For cap purposes moving forward, while the value might be 7.5M/yr isn't the germane part for asset retention what number the cap hit can be reported as in order to accommodate as much space as possible i.e. $6.9M?

 

[FalcorMulch]

Another misconception that needs to be cleared up. The team is not actually eating at $10.2 million cap hit this season. The team sees the same $6.96 million cap hit every year, including this one. However, in year 1 that cap hit is accumulated over about 2/3 of the season. The $10.2 million is the annualized value of that amount. That’s what cap friendly is showing you. The reason it’s done this way is because contracts are typically discussed on an annual basis. Cap friendly’s entire website is built on annual values.

To think about it another way. If we had exactly $6.96 million in cap space at the beginning of the season we still would have been able to sign this deal. Because cap space is carried forward from one day to the next. So for every day we don’t use that cap space the annualized amount of cap space increases.

 

[HomerJLeafs]

RFA V. UFA

One of the best playmakers in the League vs one trick pony
Hm.

 

[PuckMagi]

Another misconception that needs to be cleared up. The team is not actually eating at $10.2 million cap hit this season. The team sees the same $6.96 million cap hit every year, including this one. However, in year 1 that cap hit is accumulated over about 2/3 of the season. The $10.2 million is the annualized value of that amount.

To think about it another way. If we had exactly $6.96 million in cap space at the beginning of the season we still would have been able to sign this deal. Because cap space is carried forward from one day to the next. So for every day we don’t use that cap space the annualized amount of cap space increases.

good post

ya, we were basically banking cap space all of October and November because he wasn't signed.

whatever... cap space this year isn't a problem

 

[Ziggdiezan]

You'd have to help me out, brother...Just went to the site and still see an AAV this year at $10.27M and subsequent years at $6.9M. For cap purposes moving forward, while the value might be 7.5M/yr isn't the germane part for asset retention what number the cap hit can be reported as in order to accommodate as much space as possible i.e. $6.9M?

Oh of course, the leafs only care about the cap hit and having so much space this year created a special situation whereby they could pay Nylander more than they wanted to due to the him sitting out for so long.

I just originally commented because people are acting like Nylander went from 8.5 million to 6.9 million which he didnt it seems like

I did however forget to exclude the money lost from sitting.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Exactly and Lewis Gross knew that and used it to his advantage..

- Here we have a new inexperience GM at the helm who is building his own NHL resume and in the history of the CBA and salary Cap no RFA player has ever sat out the year. No GM was ever not able to find common ground.. That was not something Dubas wanted on his record to suggest he wasn't able to close a deal nor go over the cliff with Willy to obtain it ... Strike #1 for Dubas

- Leafs have lots of cap space this year so Gross also knew it was to his advantage to take this to the wire to get his deal, because Leafs could easily take a big $10 mil cap hit in year #1 and benefited in future years because of the CBA clause and how to handle late signings and lower AAV hits when Leafs needed it.... Strike #2 for Dubas

- This is Leafs best season to take a run at the Cup just going all-in with JT and having Matthews and Marner on ELC contracts. Next year Leafs will have real cap issues when resigning players and tough roster decisions will bite hard into team depth. So Dubas sitting Nylander a self inflicted wound and hurting Leafs chances this year was never a real option... If Leafs bowed out of the playoffs he would have been ripped to shreds on his decision to voluntarily sit Nylander out ... Strike #3 for Dubas

Game Over and Lewis Gross knew this all from the start and had the time to see it to the bitter end to get what he wanted for Nylander.

So by your own account, you were absolutely right the whole time?

 

[ITM]

Oh of course, the leafs only care about the cap and having so much space this year created a special situation whereby they could pay Nylander more than they wanted to due to the him sitting out for so long.

I just originally commented because people are acting like Nylander went from 8.5 million to 6.9 million which he didnt.

I did however forget to exclude the money lost from sitting.

Are people "acting" like Nylander went from $8.5M to $6.9M for no reason or are they cobbling reports that noted Gross' alleged ask of "Draisaitl money" and concluding based on those reports?

- A guilty actor.

 

[ITM]

Oh of course, the leafs only care about the cap hit and having so much space this year created a special situation whereby they could pay Nylander more than they wanted to due to the him sitting out for so long.

I just originally commented because people are acting like Nylander went from 8.5 million to 6.9 million which he didnt it seems like

I did however forget to exclude the money lost from sitting.

No worries. I was just looking to verify the figure.

I'd hope like the management group, that we also invest some care into the cap hit, because brother...We're going to need it.

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Someone correct me on this, cause I am confused looking at the older cap friendly posts.

Is his cap hit actually close to 7.5 knocked down to 6.9ish due to the Dec 1st signing? There is only 2+mil in signing bonuses this year, so there should be some cap reduced in years 2-6 no?

Man, I was hoping for a 6.9 knocked to 6.5 cap hit.
Still a hell of a lot better than sitting. No matter what side of the fence you were on.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Are people "acting" like Nylander went from $8.5M to $6.9M for no reason or are they cobbling reports that noted Gross' alleged ask of "Draisaitl money" and concluding based on those reports?

- A guilty actor.

Who knows, seems like a lot of non verified information.

Has there been any sort of confirmation pertaining to Willy's original ask?

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

Another misconception that needs to be cleared up. The team is not actually eating at $10.2 million cap hit this season. The team sees the same $6.96 million cap hit every year, including this one. However, in year 1 that cap hit is accumulated over about 2/3 of the season. The $10.2 million is the annualized value of that amount. That’s what cap friendly is showing you. The reason it’s done this way is because contracts are typically discussed on an annual basis. Cap friendly’s entire website is built on annual values.

To think about it another way. If we had exactly $6.96 million in cap space at the beginning of the season we still would have been able to sign this deal. Because cap space is carried forward from one day to the next. So for every day we don’t use that cap space the annualized amount of cap space increases.

To extend your point to the latest cap myth I've been reading today, the "big" cap hit in year 1 would not be an issue if Matthews or Marner sat out. The Leafs would only need the "cap hit years 2 through x" (as people like to call it) available in year 1.

(What could be a problem if they held out would be Horton's LTIR. To get full use of it, you need to butt up against the cap before activating it, so they would be in a catch 22 where they can't activate the LTIR till they sign the player, and can't sign the player till they activate the LTIR.)

 

[HomerJLeafs]

Ignore thread
People fightin over who caved when the team got what they wanted >7M longterm contract.
Bye.

 

[FalcorMulch]

To extend your point to the latest cap myth I've been reading today, the "big" cap hit in year 1 would not be an issue if Matthews or Marner sat out. The Leafs would only need the "cap hit years 2 through x" (as people like to call it) available in year 1.

(What could be a problem if they held out would be Horton's LTIR. To get full use of it, you need to butt up against the cap before activating it, so they would be in a catch 22 where they can't activate the LTIR till they sign the player, and can't sign the player till they activate the LTIR.)

Yep, that’s the direction I wanted to go in but didn’t end up getting there. I don’t think either of them are going to miss time but the year 1 cap hit isn’t a problem.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Contract is definitely poor value relative to Ehlers, Larkin, Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Barkov, Forsberg, etc. In saying that, what else could Dubas do? We literally got the one guy in the league from the past 10 years that was willing to sit out at minimum until December 1st, and potentially the entire season.

I'm not pleased with the situation, but it's better than Nylander sitting all season. Also as others have pointed out, the contract is structured in a very trade friendly manner. After July 1, in terms of real dollars other teams trading for him would be getting a major discount. Teams with limited capspace wouldn't benefit, but teams that are more budget conscious and who need an offensive boost would be (e.g. Columbus, Carolina, NYI, Ottawa, Arizona, etc). So his trade value next summer should be much better than it's been the last few months.

I'm also not saying I'd be pushing him out the door in the summer and trying to trade him mind you. Just that IMO him sitting out until December in order to get well above market value shows what his priorities are, which would heavily limit any loyalty I'd have towards him. If it's best to keep him, keep him, If a trade makes sense, I wouldn't have much hesitation.

Great post!

 

[Nithoniniel]

Another misconception that needs to be cleared up. The team is not actually eating at $10.2 million cap hit this season. The team sees the same $6.96 million cap hit every year, including this one. However, in year 1 that cap hit is accumulated over about 2/3 of the season. The $10.2 million is the annualized value of that amount. That’s what cap friendly is showing you. The reason it’s done this way is because contracts are typically discussed on an annual basis. Cap friendly’s entire website is built on annual values.

To think about it another way. If we had exactly $6.96 million in cap space at the beginning of the season we still would have been able to sign this deal. Because cap space is carried forward from one day to the next. So for every day we don’t use that cap space the annualized amount of cap space increases.

Hey, thanks for this. Glad I got things wrong in this case.

 

[mallory67]

Cap hit % in year they signed

Scheifele = 8.39% (8 year deal)
Ehlers = 8.00% (7 year deal)
Larkin = 7.67% (5 year deal)
Forsberg = 8.22% (6 year deal)
Nylander = 8.77% (6 year deal)
Pastrnak = 8.89% (6 year deal)

When you factor absolutely everything in (career high in points, career high in goals, age when that career high was put up, overall career trajectory, linemates, etc), I'd say a fair deal would have been around ~8.15-8.25% on a 6-7 year deal.

So I definitely agree that we overpaid. But I also don't think Dubas could have done anything differently. Nylander by all accounts sounds like he was legitimately willing to sit out the season. The good thing is the way it's structured, it becomes a very tradeable contract after July 1 next summer, if at any point it benefits the Leafs to go that route.

There are only 3 key facts that we know:

1. 6.97M Cap hit
2. Nylander picked up the phone yesterday and called Dubas (this tells you who blinked)
3. Dubas used MLSE financial clout to make Nylander somewhat happy without damaging our CAP situation going forward

And two opinions from me:
1. Dubas is the modern, smart, agile GM we have been begging for in TO for years
2. Anyone talking about or posting about the $7.5M number is showing some ignorance

 

[wam_raven]

As it pertains to the "$7.5M" or $6.9M" being used against us or other teams by agents in RFA negotiations... they can't have it both ways.

An agent can't bitch and moan about "Cap Hit %", like seems to be the thing over the last year or so, then turn around and ignore what Nylander's "Cap Hit %" was and negotiate other players based off a number that Nylander was never really paid.

 

[Kazparov]

The only way Dubas wins was by going down swinging and show he wasn't a push over in contract negotiations. To do that he had to do what was in the Leafs best interest and not his own personal interest. He didn't cave early and fought hard at the plate until the bitter end..He didn't let his own ego get in the way and willingly go over the cliff with Willy which helped no one.

Getting Nylander signed is a big win for him, because it helps the team he manages get stronger and more Cup competitive the #1 goal here. The teams success on the ice is how the performance of the GM is measured. The more the Leafs win the better Dubas looks in the big picture, and if it results in a Cup win than Kyle gets a great big STAR for a job well done.

He wins because he also used MLSE financial wherewithal to front-load the deal with signing bonuses so that 40% of Nylander contract including $17.7 mil is paid in full on July 1st 2019.. That makes the Nylander contract very movable in the future should Leafs run into cap issues and need to make sacrifices. In fact it appears to be created by Dubas for exactly that purpose which again helps the team manage the cap going forward via flexibility and options via its structure.

Holding out until the last day is also a win for Dubas because of the way the CBA handles RFA signings for holdouts.. .Leafs are taking a massive $10,277,778 mil cap hit in year #1 when they have lots of cap space to absorb it, and benefit in years 2-6 with a lower AAV when they need the space most.

So Dubas lost the war and struck out on his attempt to get Nylander at a cap friendly deal because the deck was stacked against him, but he did come away winning some important smaller battles along the way that puts the Leafs into a better winning position going forward.

Those battles that Dubas did win did not come at the expense of Nylander however, and this contract battle, so those are things Gross/Nylander would gladly give him as few foul tip balls on his way going down swinging to keep my baseball analogy going.

In the end it was a Win all around as Leafs Win (Leafs got stronger) -- Nylander Wins (got his $$ he wanted) -- Leafs Nation Wins (Willy is back in the fold to cheer on) -- Dubas wins as he did his job and did what was best for everyone involved.

Great post

 

[613Leafer]

There are only 3 key facts that we know:

1. 6.97M Cap hit
2. Nylander picked up the phone yesterday and called Dubas (this tells you who blinked)
3. Dubas used MLSE financial clout to make Nylander somewhat happy without damaging our CAP situation going forward

And two opinions from me:
1. Dubas is the modern, smart, agile GM we have been begging for in TO for years
2. Anyone talking about or posting about the $7.5M number is showing some ignorance

6.97 / 79.5M = 8.77%

So maybe do the math before calling someone ignorant? My post was based on 6.97M, not 7.5M.

 

[thewave]

There are only 3 key facts that we know:

1. 6.97M Cap hit
2. Nylander picked up the phone yesterday and called Dubas (this tells you who blinked)
3. Dubas used MLSE financial clout to make Nylander somewhat happy without damaging our CAP situation going forward

And two opinions from me:
1. Dubas is the modern, smart, agile GM we have been begging for in TO for years
2. Anyone talking about or posting about the $7.5M number is showing some ignorance

The cap situation is damaged because we overpaid on one. That means we must overpay for all. You can't do that, it's precedent.