Confirmed with Link: Nylander Re-signs: 6 Year x $6.9 AAV Part II

[TheCLAM]

Okay so perfect world Nylander signs for 6-6.5 AAV where's the "significant" money now to sign Gardiner, Matthews, and Marner? My point.. 6.97 AAV doesn't not change the situation.. If anything we just front loaded the contract and gave ourself an opportunity to trade Nylander after July 1 if we really found ourself in a dire situation. 17 million of 41 mill comes off the books in the next 7 months.. aka cash strapped teams deal with a paper "AAV" that's higher than the actual dollar going out. In reality, a team could take on his contract and they payout is closer to 5M/season.

This is the way I look at it.. we flexed out financial muscle and made a higher "AAV" deal attractive in the event we have to move him. I hope we keep him though and can make it work.. It seems like a lot our issue would go away by trading Horton/Zaitsev. You would have to think with Seattle coming into the league that we may be one of those teams giving up a high pick + prospect to select Zaitsev. 4.5 mill comes off the books and we're able to allocate it towards Gardiner.. then we have Liljegren/Sandin/Borgman/Rosen all as cheap 5/6 options.

 

[thewave]

Okay so perfect world Nylander signs for 6-6.5 AAV where's the "significant" money now to sign Gardiner, Matthews, and Marner? My point.. 6.97 AAV doesn't not change the situation.. If anything we just front loaded the contract and gave ourself an opportunity to trade Nylander after July 1 if we really found ourself in a dire situation

It's really simple how this works... Look how WPG set the bar, players are all taking discounts because they held firm on team friendly deals. Same with TB. We broke rank and now must pay up. It's as simple as that and a failure on management. I know it, GMs know it and Cherry knows it. They have all spoken about it as well. Toronto is more like Buffalo now and EDM. TB and WPG were smarter.

 

[Eb]

I figured out what the issue was, everyone thought he was a free agent and not in fact an rfa

He was a free agent...

 

[TheMidlifeCrisisGuy]

It's really simple how this works... Look how WPG set the bar, players are all taking discounts because they held firm on team friendly deals. Same with TB. We broke rank and now must pay up. It's as simple as that and a failure on management. I know it, GMs know it and Cherry knows it. They have all spoken about it as well. Toronto is more like Buffalo now and EDM. TB and WPG were smarter.

Matthews and Marner can take us to the cleaners if they want to as well.

We just have to hope they decide not to.

 

[thewave]

Matthews and Marner can take us to the cleaners if they want to as well.

We just have to hope they decide not to.

I think pretty much this is why we will trade Nylander. It'll be simply put back on what Shanny said. We need people to take a little less but we can make the best of it if you want the money and out.

 

[hullsy47]

Okay so perfect world Nylander signs for 6-6.5 AAV where's the "significant" money now to sign Gardiner, Matthews, and Marner? My point.. 6.97 AAV doesn't not change the situation.. If anything we just front loaded the contract and gave ourself an opportunity to trade Nylander after July 1 if we really found ourself in a dire situation. 17 million of 41 mill comes off the books in the next 7 months.. aka cash strapped teams deal with a paper "AAV" that's higher than the actual dollar going out. In reality, a team could take on his contract and they payout is closer to 5M/season.

This is the way I look at it.. we flexed out financial muscle and made a higher "AAV" deal attractive in the event we have to move him. I hope we keep him though and can make it work.. It seems like a lot our issue would go away by trading Horton/Zaitsev. You would have to think with Seattle coming into the league that we may be one of those teams giving up a high pick + prospect to select Zaitsev. 4.5 mill comes off the books and we're able to allocate it towards Gardiner.. then we have Liljegren/Sandin/Borgman/Rosen all as cheap 5/6 options.

that contract is worth gold u could get a lottery pick with that 1

 

[BigGulpsEh]

Ignore thread
People fightin over who caved when the team got what they wanted >7M longterm contract.
Bye.

You mean <7M

 

[stanleyorbust]

Kind of seems like both sides did fairly well.

Dubas didn’t give him the 8.5 million he wanted. Managed to get him signed to a fair deal of 6.9 million. Front loaded so he can trade him later if necessary. Dubas stuck to his guns and only moved 400k off his stance.

Nylander gets paid, and won’t lose out on salary from his hold out. He gets to remain a leaf(assuming that was his goal) and he gets to take a shot at the cup with the leafs this year and hopefully a few more seasons.

Why does it have to turn into one side being the loser?

 

[TheCLAM]

It's really simple how this works... Look how WPG set the bar, players are all taking discounts because they held firm on team friendly deals. Same with TB. We broke rank and now must pay up. It's as simple as that and a failure on management. I know it, GMs know it and Cherry knows it. They have all spoken about it as well. Toronto is more like Buffalo now and EDM. TB and WPG were smarter.

There's a lot of angles to this that many people do not see. Lou/Gross couldn't get a deal done last season.. how close was the original number last year to this year after another 60 point season? Ehlers put up close to 40 pts in year 1, then 64 in year 2. The Jets gambled that he was a player closer to the 60 point range than 40 point range and locked him up. Same situation with Yanne Gourde.. you get paid based on longevity typically (2 years minimum seems to be the standard).

The time to lock-up Nylander IMO was last season as with Marner/Matthews. It's impossible though to really point the finger and call this a failure.. He makes 970K on an AAV basis than Ehlers and we front loaded the contract in $$ - I'm good with this contract. At worst we set ourselves up for a trade and this season we make a serious run at the cup

Another X-Factor is naturally the cap goes up with Vegas coming into the league.. cap goes up = salaries go up. I don't really need to show my math to prove this is a reality. Tavares signed a long-term deal with 5.5 AAV, MacKinnon has a deal worth 6.3 AAV. These numbers will always look low and they do as the years keep coming. The baseline is always changing for that long-term deal.

 

[LeafsGuy16]

Cap hit % in year they signed

Scheifele = 8.39% (8 year deal)
Ehlers = 8.00% (7 year deal)
Larkin = 7.67% (5 year deal)
Forsberg = 8.22% (6 year deal)
Nylander = 8.77% (6 year deal)
Pastrnak = 8.89% (6 year deal)

When you factor absolutely everything in (career high in points, career high in goals, age when that career high was put up, overall career trajectory, linemates, etc), I'd say a fair deal would have been around ~8.15-8.25% on a 6-7 year deal.

So I definitely agree that we overpaid. But I also don't think Dubas could have done anything differently. Nylander by all accounts sounds like he was legitimately willing to sit out the season. The good thing is the way it's structured, it becomes a very tradeable contract after July 1 next summer, if at any point it benefits the Leafs to go that route.

One thing in common with all of those deals, each one of them are considered high value. The players, who have had the opportunity, have already outperformed their contracts and their trade values have increased because of it.

So I agree with this poster entirely, is it a marginal overpayment today? Yes. Is the contract one that will be highly marketable? Yes! There will be teams lining up to offer high value trade proposals for Willy Nylander IF the Leafs determine in 1, 2,...5 years from now that they need to restructure their cap situation.

From a business perspective, Dubas retained an appreciating asset, his contract does not change that and will only help his value over time. And oh yea, Burke not being able to understand all of this, from an asset management perspective, says a lot more about the way he thinks than Mr. Dubas' abilities.

 

[Mess]

So by your own account, you were absolutely right the whole time?

Well my position from the start was Nylander would get Pastrnak contract + Cap inflation.

Pastrnak got 6 years X $6.67 mil ($40 mil) and Nylander got 6 years X $6.96 mil ($42 mil) because the cap went up $5 mil.

I thought from the summer on that Leafs would be able to get Nylander at ~$7 mil AAV per.

So it happened to turn out as I expected it would if that is what you mean.

PS. Many Leaf fans didn't agree with me claiming Nylander didn't have the #'s to support that case, but you have to factor in all things considered and in the end the outcome was as predicted.

Your not going to win any popularity contests and prepare to be labelled a Nylander Fanboy by anger Leaf posters that don't support our opinion. But if you can't stand the heat, stay out of the Kitchen I say..

 

[Pookie]

I think pretty much this is why we will trade Nylander. It'll be simply put back on what Shanny said. We need people to take a little less but we can make the best of it if you want the money and out.

I’m waiting for @Gary Nylund or @stickty111 to yell at you for such a silly thought.

Despite evidence to the contrary, teams don’t sign players to long term deals... specifically 6 year deals... only to trade them before the term is up.

 

[ULF_55]

One of the consequences of employing the holdout strategy to squeeze out more money is that Nylander has really put pressure on himself to perform in particular in the playoffs .

Rightly ,or wrongly a lot of fans did not like the fact that Nylander held out and didn’t play the first 20 games .

I’ve got to imagine that these fans will be particularly unforgiving if Willy pulls a disappearing act in the playoffs again . He will be roasted by fans and media alike if this happens .
A much higher salary brings with it much higher performance expectations .

How will those fans feel about Matthews pulling another disappearing act in the playoffs and seeking 12+?