Confirmed with Link: Nylander Re-signs: 6 Year x $6.9 AAV Part II

[613Leafer]

It was a complete crapshow and it should have been ironed out in the summer. Dubas simply should have said 6.5 x 6, the Ehlers amount adjusted and it won't change a penny if you hold out or not even if you sit. That's what should have happened.

#sellyourNylanderMerch

Cap hit % in year they signed

Scheifele = 8.39% (8 year deal)
Ehlers = 8.00% (7 year deal)
Larkin = 7.67% (5 year deal)
Forsberg = 8.22% (6 year deal)
Nylander = 8.77% (6 year deal)
Pastrnak = 8.89% (6 year deal)

When you factor absolutely everything in (career high in points, career high in goals, age when that career high was put up, overall career trajectory, linemates, etc), I'd say a fair deal would have been around ~8.15-8.25% on a 6-7 year deal.

So I definitely agree that we overpaid. But I also don't think Dubas could have done anything differently. Nylander by all accounts sounds like he was legitimately willing to sit out the season. The good thing is the way it's structured, it becomes a very tradeable contract after July 1 next summer, if at any point it benefits the Leafs to go that route.

 

[SprDaVE]

Would be interesting to know if Nylander accepts 6x$7M in the summer. If he would have he basically got paid for sitting out three months.

Doesn't look like he would have... But the Leafs were adamant to not go over 6.66 for a long time it looks like. So I guess they went over 300k what they wanted and Nylander went way under.

 

[saltming]

Okay so what’s PP2 going to look like?

Marleau
Kapanen - Johnsson - Nylander
Gardiner

?

Willie will be the Marner on pp2

 

[666]

Dubas had only to do one thing... Tell Nylander he was worth Ehlers money on a comparable team and let the 6.5m x 6y offer sit there from the start with no movement even if it means him sitting. That's all he had to do and he buckled, he caved. He overpaid, thankfully in a way that a team like Carolina will see EXTREME EXTRA VALUE in.

Letting Nylander sit was not an option. Imagine if Nylander sat, didn't get traded and the Leafs had $7M in cap space left at the end of the season. Now imagine them missing winning the cup by one goal in game 7. Dubas had to get it done and he got it done. Nylander should be traded.

 

[thewave]

Cap hit % in year they signed

Scheifele = 8.39% (8 year deal)
Ehlers = 8.00% (7 year deal)
Larkin = 7.67% (5 year deal)
Forsberg = 8.22% (6 year deal)
Nylander = 8.77% (6 year deal)
Pastrnak = 8.89% (6 year deal)

When you factor absolutely everything in (career high in points, career high in goals, age when that career high was put up, overall career trajectory, linemates, etc), I'd say a fair deal would have been around ~8.15-8.25% on a 6-7 year deal.

So I definitely agree that we overpaid. But I also don't think Dubas could have done anything differently. Nylander by all accounts sounds like he was legitimately willing to sit out the season. The good thing is the way it's structured, it becomes a very tradeable contract after July 1 next summer, if at any point it benefits the Leafs to go that route.

The years matter. The fact we didn't adjust for increased production last season by way of tender equipment changes. It all matters and tbh 8.77% for 6 years on a player like Nylander is murdered. Look at the Sheifele and Ehlers deals. That's a single team in a small town. They killed us at the negotiations table. Killed us, and if they keep doing that we will never beat them for a cup without luck. It eventually starts to translate down the line when we are down to pennies.

 

[thewave]

Letting Nylander sit was not an option. Imagine if Nylander sat, didn't get traded and the Leafs had $7M in cap space left at the end of the season. Now imagine them missing winning the cup by one goal in game 7. Dubas had to get it done and he got it done. Nylander should be traded.

It doesn't matter, we could play the what if game with anything and everything except for the Cap. The Cap is the Cap.

 

[Menzinger]

For those that think the front loading done was intent to trade Nylander, remember that front loading is also beneficial for the players. Could have just been a mutual desire to structure the contract, or could have been a deman ld by Nylander camp.

It’s basically the same thing for all major contracts now. Matthews and Marner will also have highly front loaded deals.

Players want the money up front because it maximizes their ability to invest it.

It DOES make any of these contracts more moveable in their later years but it shouldn’t at all means it’s going to lead to a trade. It should be expected that the team is comfortable keeping any player that they sign long term

 

[Mess]

Dubas got a big win by getting no NTC until the last year I think. That definitely couldve been a sticking point if Nylander was concerned about being traded as was rumored.

That is not Dubas that is how the CBA works and rules apply for all RFA players and years.

Any player is not eligible for a NTC/NMC until they reach UFA status (defined as 7 years of service or age 27 whatever occurs first).

Willy is currently 22 year old so for the first 5 years of his deal until age 27 he wasn't eligible for any no trade clause..

Only in year #6 where Leafs were buying a single year of UFA status away from Nylander was he able to have a NTC and according to reports its a limited one where Willy submits a list of 10 teams.

 

[Buds17]

Absolutely, RFA contracts will increase proportionately, which means they are probably increasing to a more fair market value to their worth without holding out until Dec 1 to get it.

It might depend on how they're increasing. Is it due to the teams worrying about offer sheets or is it because of actual offer sheets? More players will be in the lineup, but I wonder if that may prove to be more costly for either team in the long run? Getting that RFA playing sooner may also cause them to lose that player or someone else sooner.

In Nylander's case, what would the cost have been to have him in the lineup from the start of the season, and would that have been worth it compared to how it ultimately played out? It's a tough one.

 

[Menzinger]

What worries me is this: Next year is our biggest cap crunch. By sitting out oct and nov, Nylanders 6.9 cap hit is 10 mil this season. No big deal, we have the cap space this year. But next year we don’t. If Marner plays the same game, we simply wouldn’t be able to pay that inflated year one cap hit.

If his agent tries a similar tactic his client isn’t going to get paid. Nylander was in a highly unique situation because of the significant amount of capspace the Leafs has.

Marner and Matthews’ agent have more incentives to get their clients sorted out before the season starts, or else their bottom line may be impacted

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Shouldn't the thread be changed to the actually AAV which was like 7.5 x 6?

 

[ITM]

2 Weeks ago on HNIC they panel said Nylander's camp was believed to be a shade under $7 mil in the 6.9ish range while the Leafs were about $500k apart at present putting them at $6.5 mil tops, and not yet willing to go to the Pastrnak deal as an official offer.

Pierre Lebrun tweeted last night Leafs managements position heading towards the dealine hour.


It looks like Gross and Nylander dug their heels in and Leafs had their FINAL and best offer weeks earlier, and Dubas/Shanny caved to their demands as the clock ticked down based on the final number of $6.96 mil being the same as the one reported earlier.

Nylander's side called the Leafs bluff and won.. They were holding all the cards so it wasn't unexpected that Leafs management eventually would accept that offer or close to it.

The only thing Nylander's side called was the Leafs, per Dubas, at approximately 3:30PM asking to make a deal. Dubas didn't call Gross. Gross called Dubas.

If the OTHER HNIC reports were ALSO true, Nylander's camp started at Draisaitl money, which is $8.5M/yr. The constant representation reported from Toronto was around the deals Gross's other clients received in that $6.5M range. So by all as yet to be confirmed reports, you have Nylander's side coming down from $8.5M to $6.9M and Shanahan and Dubas coming up from $6.5M to $6.9M...and you think our management caved? Dubas didn't call Gross. Gross called Dubas.

With a half hour left until the opportunity to sign past, what we know is that Dubas didn't call Gross to navigate a compromise $400K less than the apparent initial demand. He received Gross's call and compromised by coming $400K up, which is a number many have floated was the pre-Pastrnak number adjusted. A $400K rise compared to a $1.4M drop is a heck of an odd interpretation to conclude management caved and not the player's agent despite the player's agent calling management and not the other way around.

Anyone who deals with negotiations knows that a compromise typically yields mutual dissatisfaction rather than mutual satisfaction despite representation to the contrary. So if the ideal was Nylander signing $500K less his Leafs management projected ceiling (i.e. $6.5M) versus Nylander signing $1.4M less the Nylander's agent's valuation at Draisaitl money, which side was more dissatisfied I wonder?

By calling Dubas, Gross did the impossible, by simultaneously digging in his heels in while essentially walking over to initiate a resolve. That's a mighty strange definition of caving in, Mess.

But only a distant second definition of strange to preferring it over the reality that we just signed an elite player who is going to exceed the value of his contract very soon.

Sticky this post to hold it accountable.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The only thing Nylander's side called was the Leafs, per Dubas, at approximately 3:30PM asking to make a deal. Dubas didn't call Gross. Gross called Dubas.

If the OTHER HNIC reports were ALSO true, Nylander's camp started at Draisaitl money, which is $8.5M/yr. The constant representation reported from Toronto was around the deals Gross's other clients received in that $6.5M range. So by all as yet to be confirmed reports, you have Nylander's side coming down from $8.5M to $6.9M and Shanahan and Dubas coming up from $6.5M to $6.9M...and you think our management caved? Dubas didn't call Gross. Gross called Dubas.

With a half hour left until the opportunity to sign past, what we know is that Dubas didn't call Gross to navigate a compromise $400K less than the apparent initial demand. He received Gross's call and compromised by coming $400K up, which is a number many have floated was the pre-Pastrnak number adjusted. A $400K rise compared to a $1.4M drop is a heck of an odd interpretation to conclude management caved and not the player's agent despite the player's agent calling management and not the other way around.

Anyone who deals with negotiations knows that a compromise typically yields mutual dissatisfaction rather than mutual satisfaction despite representation to the contrary. So if the ideal was Nylander signing $500K less his Leafs management projected ceiling (i.e. $6.5M) versus Nylander signing $1.4M less the Nylander's agent's valuation at Draisaitl money, which side was more dissatisfied I wonder?

By calling Dubas, Gross did the impossible, by simultaneously digging in his heels in while essentially walking over to initiate a resolve. That's a mighty strange definition of caving in, Mess.

But only a distant second definition of strange to preferring it over the reality that we just signed an elite player who is going to exceed the value of his contract very soon.

Sticky this post to hold it accountable.

I mean the contact is 45 million over 6 so Willy came down to 7.5 million AAV.

Don't think he gives a rat ass what the cap hit is. He got paid close to what he wanted when he was asking for way too much.

Certainly an overpayment, especially as it only buy 1 UFA year but whatever. It is palatable and allows the leafs to ice one of the best teams of the cap era.

 

[glue]

Contract is definitely poor value relative to Ehlers, Larkin, Pastrnak, MacKinnon, Barkov, Forsberg, etc. In saying that, what else could Dubas do? We literally got the one guy in the league from the past 10 years that was willing to sit out at minimum until December 1st, and potentially the entire season.

I'm not pleased with the situation, but it's better than Nylander sitting all season. Also as others have pointed out, the contract is structured in a very trade friendly manner. After July 1, in terms of real dollars other teams trading for him would be getting a major discount. Teams with limited capspace wouldn't benefit, but teams that are more budget conscious and who need an offensive boost would be (e.g. Columbus, Carolina, NYI, Ottawa, Arizona, etc). So his trade value next summer should be much better than it's been the last few months.

I'm also not saying I'd be pushing him out the door in the summer and trying to trade him mind you. Just that IMO him sitting out until December in order to get well above market value shows what his priorities are, which would heavily limit any loyalty I'd have towards him. If it's best to keep him, keep him, If a trade makes sense, I wouldn't have much hesitation.

This is pretty much exactly how I feel about this. Can’t blame Dubas, he did the best under the circumstances. It would have been worse for him to be equally stubborn and make Willy sit out in a year we look quite clearly poised for a cup run.

Maybe one more angle that should work in the Leafs favour. This is no slight on Nylander, but playing with Matthews will guarantee decent to good point totals. The upside, Willie could get BIG numbers, making the contact look attractive. So the "risk" is lower given the situation... at minimum Nylander will put up good face value production, at maximum he does "develop" into the elite player he aspires to be, then NOBODY will complain about this contract. The money is likely not going to be an albatross that makes Willie immovable, should we need to explore that option.

Not to mention IF Willy does transition into a solid Center in a couple years, this will start to look like a win for the leafs.

 

[Mess]

Letting Nylander sit was not an option. Imagine if Nylander sat, didn't get traded and the Leafs had $7M in cap space left at the end of the season. Now imagine them missing winning the cup by one goal in game 7. Dubas had to get it done and he got it done. Nylander should be traded.

Exactly and Lewis Gross knew that and used it to his advantage..

- Here we have a new inexperience GM at the helm who is building his own NHL resume and in the history of the CBA and salary Cap no RFA player has ever sat out the year. No GM was ever not able to find common ground.. That was not something Dubas wanted on his record to suggest he wasn't able to close a deal nor go over the cliff with Willy to obtain it ... Strike #1 for Dubas

- Leafs have lots of cap space this year so Gross also knew it was to his advantage to take this to the wire to get his deal, because Leafs could easily take a big $10 mil cap hit in year #1 and benefited in future years because of the CBA clause and how to handle late signings and lower AAV hits when Leafs needed it.... Strike #2 for Dubas

- This is Leafs best season to take a run at the Cup just going all-in with JT and having Matthews and Marner on ELC contracts. Next year Leafs will have real cap issues when resigning players and tough roster decisions will bite hard into team depth. So Dubas sitting Nylander a self inflicted wound and hurting Leafs chances this year was never a real option... If Leafs bowed out of the playoffs he would have been ripped to shreds on his decision to voluntarily sit Nylander out ... Strike #3 for Dubas

Game Over and Lewis Gross knew this all from the start and had the time to see it to the bitter end to get what he wanted for Nylander.

 

[Jozay]

Okay so what’s PP2 going to look like?

Marleau
Kapanen - Johnsson - Nylander
Gardiner

?

Swap Marleau and Kadri, imo.

 

[4thline]

I mean the contact is 45 million over 6 so Willy came down to 7.5 million AAV.
.

Nope, Nylander gets paid 42.

 

[ITM]

I mean the contact is 45 million over 6 so Willy came down to 7.5 million AAV.

Don't think he gives a rat ass what the cap hit is. He got paid close to what he wanted when he was asking for way too much.

Certainly an overpayment, especially as it only buy 1 UFA year but whatever. It is palatable and allows the leafs to ice one of the best teams of the cap era.

A site (CF) has it listed as $6,962,366M per until the end of the 2023/2024 season.

 

[ToneDog]

The only thing Nylander's side called was the Leafs, per Dubas, at approximately 3:30PM asking to make a deal. Dubas didn't call Gross. Gross called Dubas.

If the OTHER HNIC reports were ALSO true, Nylander's camp started at Draisaitl money, which is $8.5M/yr. The constant representation reported from Toronto was around the deals Gross's other clients received in that $6.5M range. So by all as yet to be confirmed reports, you have Nylander's side coming down from $8.5M to $6.9M and Shanahan and Dubas coming up from $6.5M to $6.9M...and you think our management caved? Dubas didn't call Gross. Gross called Dubas.

With a half hour left until the opportunity to sign past, what we know is that Dubas didn't call Gross to navigate a compromise $400K less than the apparent initial demand. He received Gross's call and compromised by coming $400K up, which is a number many have floated was the pre-Pastrnak number adjusted. A $400K rise compared to a $1.4M drop is a heck of an odd interpretation to conclude management caved and not the player's agent despite the player's agent calling management and not the other way around.

Anyone who deals with negotiations knows that a compromise typically yields mutual dissatisfaction rather than mutual satisfaction despite representation to the contrary. So if the ideal was Nylander signing $500K less his Leafs management projected ceiling (i.e. $6.5M) versus Nylander signing $1.4M less the Nylander's agent's valuation at Draisaitl money, which side was more dissatisfied I wonder?

By calling Dubas, Gross did the impossible, by simultaneously digging in his heels in while essentially walking over to initiate a resolve. That's a mighty strange definition of caving in, Mess.

But only a distant second definition of strange to preferring it over the reality that we just signed an elite player who is going to exceed the value of his contract very soon.

Sticky this post to hold it accountable.

So you think Leafs started at 6.5 in the summer and only moved to 6.99 yesterday? I believe Leafs started at 6 and refused to go to 7.

 

[BertCorbeau]

Exactly and Lewis Gross knew that and used it to his advantage..

- Here we have a new inexperience GM at the helm who is building his own NHL resume and in the history of the CBA and salary Cap no RFA player has ever sat out the year. No GM was ever not able to find common ground.. That was not something Dubas wanted on his record to suggest he wasn't able to close a deal nor go over the cliff with Willy to obtain it ... Strike #1 for Dubas

- Leafs have lots of cap space this year so Gross also knew it was to his advantage to take this to the wire to get his deal, because Leafs could easily take a big $10 mil cap hit in year #1 and benefited in future years because of the CBA clause and how to handle late signings and lower AAV hits when Leafs needed it.... Strike #2 for Dubas

- This is Leafs best season to take a run at the Cup just going all-in with JT and having Matthews and Marner on ELC contracts. Next year Leafs will have real cap issues when resigning players and tough roster decisions will bite hard into team depth. So Dubas sitting Nylander a self inflicted wound and hurting Leafs chances this year was never a real option... If Leafs bowed out of the playoffs he would have been ripped to shreds on his decision to voluntarily sit Nylander out ... Strike #3 for Dubas

Game Over and Lewis Gross knew this all from the start and had the time to see it to the bitter end to get what he wanted for Nylander.

Jesus Mess, by your accounts Dubas was in a no-win position because a lot of these factors were beyond his control. Yet he's the one that strikes out and is a failure? Hmm...

 

[tmlfan98]

I've said since the summer that I would've been comfortable giving Nylander 7x7. The only thing I don't like about this deal is that there's no 7th year.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Nope, Nylander gets paid 42.

Really? So capfriendly still has it wrong?

 

[Ziggdiezan]

A site (CF) has it listed as $6,962,366M per until the end of the 2023/2024 season.

Ya but the first season is $10.27 million so the avarage annual value is 7.5 million (according to capfriendly)

 

[Maplebeasts]

Jesus Mess, by your accounts Dubas was in a no-win position because a lot of these factors were beyond his control. Yet he's the one that strikes out and is a failure? Hmm...

Mental gymnastics. From what it sounds like Will came down far more than management went up. I don't understand his position at all.

 

[Oscar Peterson]

Ya but the first season is $10.27 million so the avarage annual value is 7.5 million (according to capfriendly)

That is the pro-rated cap-hit, you have to adjust for the money that Willie lost by sitting out (3 million dollars).
Hence he only gets paid 42 mil.