Prediction Contest: Nylander Points Total: 2018-19

[Tables of Stats]

highly unlikely, but to make it affordable it'd have to be a expanded trade, adding Talbot coming our way, Sparks going their way and other pieces involved. Almost impossible to get and give a package that both teams would be happy with imo.

Force the Oilers to keep Talbot and give you the other one and that seems like a win for the Leafs. The Oilers get back the scoring winger they want so they could have McD + Drai and RNH + Nylander. The Leafs grab a bit of D and some assets with potential and/or trade value at the TDL.

Edit: I just realized that it might have to be Talbot got cap reasons. Otherwise you're looking at other salary dumps and those just kill the deal right away. It makes the trade siginificantly worse to get Talbot back for Sparks.

 

[PromisedLand]

It's also impossible to argue with advanced stats "nerds" because they think that their advanced stats are gospel. Willy is fair game to criticize. He wanted a big payday, he sat out 2 months, now he got it and not performing. He needs to up his game a couple of notches, at least.

advanced stats can be useful if "context" is used

most of the posters use advanced stats incorrectly and without context to push an agenda

 

[rumman]

That guy is the king of name calling. He suggested I was racist before.

I guess clinging to one's beliefs in spite of reality works for some?

 

[socko]

I guess clinging to one's beliefs in spite of reality works for some?

Yeah, that's how I looked at it. Denial with a touch of anger mixed in.

 

[rumman]

He argued hard with me that Marner was not a better player and did not deserve more money. This was some 10-15 games into this season. I argued Marner had already separated himself huge starting last Christmas when he became a PPG player, #1 PP guy, and a PK'er. I further argued Marneer would continue to seperate himself and go into negotiations asking for and deserving way more money than WN. He peered down his nose and called me toxic and said it was just because "Nylander isn't a good Ontario boy".

Now he ignores me.

He should really just stop posting about Nylander. Have some shame.

he ignores you? Lucky you.......

 

[PromisedLand]

Sens fan here in peace. Something to consider here. Last year he had a PDO of 104. That is a lot of luck on his side. This year he has a pdo of 95.3. Luck is not on his side(yet).

We had the same issue with duchene last year. He had a slump to start but he was actually playing very well. You wouldn't know that by the stat watchers who are the worlds biggest keyboard warriors. His PDO was awful in first 20 games as a sen. Since his pdo normalized he has been beasting hovering at a hair above PPG.

The point is, there is zero reason to panic on this guy. Nylander is a very good possession player and he will undoubtedly pile up points again sometime in the near. He is way to skilled and getting way to unlucky so far for this streak to be normal for him.

Relax boys, he is gonna be just fine. Maybe a hair over paid, but it really is more a to-may-to vs to-mat-to kind of perception there.

PDO is a function of

sh% and sv%

sh% is a function of team offense

sv% is a function of team defense

PDO shouldn't really be viewed as as a go to statistic for luck IMO; it gives some information but not all the information. Example: Last season zone starts Vs this season zone starts; QoC, QoT etc...

 

[thewave]

It's also impossible to argue with advanced stats "nerds" because they think that their advanced stats are gospel. Willy is fair game to criticize. He wanted a big payday, he sat out 2 months, now he got it and not performing. He needs to up his game a couple of notches, at least.

"Toxic posters". Here we go again. You are right, 100% right. He held out because he felt he is worth more, is something more but up to here, he has shown he is worth far less. Sure, maybe you can argue the rust over the first 10 games. Now what is it? He is still playing soft, dumping the puck in the face of being checked etc.

 

[Duke Silver]

1. So goals mattering more than assists won't be a factor in Matthews contract? I want you to be VERY clear on this point.

2. In your example, one player has better stats EVERY year of their respective elc's. Which makes it a stupid example.

3. I have no idea what argument you're making here. Here's the specific formula: The more ufa years you sign for, the more money you make. Why? Because players make FAR more money on ufa contracts than rfa contracts. Regardless of your understanding of WHY Pastrnak had to give up 2 ufa years, and Nylander only 1, that's the specific issue. Nylander is overpaid for this precise reason.

4. You're pretty much saying "It's not Dubas fault that other General Managers are FAR better at their jobs than he is and can pay proven superior players far less money." Yeah, that's an amazing argument. I sure feel better about Dubas now. I guess you're right. It's not HIS fault that Bostons GM is so much better than him. Just like it's not my fault Usain Bolt is so much faster than me. Good point. Enlightening.

And in regards to Tavares, I say kudos to Dubas. Love the contract. Was fully on board with Dubas.
Why was Dubas able to give Tavares a good contract, but had to give Nylander a bad, horrible, evil contract? I don't know. But i BLAME Dubas.
Credit where credit is due. Criticism where criticism is due.

You seem angry.

 

[socko]

Also, I'm not going to sit here and wish Willy becomes something I know he will never be, a complete hockey player. I'm going to wish he gets moved in the offseason is what I'm going to wish for. Until then, I hope he does as well as possible. But I'm really not expecting much (although I expected more than he has provided). He cashed in and he's just going through the motions now. Kind of like I predicted might happen.

 

[egd27]

But I heard we were 3rd in puck possession since WN returned and we have been dominant. Your numbers make no sense. What is your agenda ?

Trying to see if can be considered a "hater" by spewing all kinds of outrageous facts.

 

[RLF]

I guess clinging to one's beliefs in spite of reality works for some?

I find it ironic when those who always go to stats to try to prove what they want all to believe and that are completely unwilling to see it any other way...also saying they get tired of other posters who just won't listen.
If you show other stats that contradict what they want people to believe...those stats don't count. In other words...they don't help my agenda, so I am not listening. Ironic really.

 

[thewave]

Trying to see if can be considered a "hater" by spewing all kinds of outrageous facts.

Are you one of the toxic posters that were mentioned? If so how dare you have an opinion and use facts to back said opinions up. I bet you're masculine too. #outrage

 

[rumman]

Also, I'm not going to sit here and wish Willy becomes something I know he will never be, a complete hockey player. I'm going to wish he gets moved in the offseason is what I'm going to wish for. Until then, I hope he does as well as possible. But I'm really not expecting much (although I expected more than he has provided). He cashed in and he's just going through the motions now. Kind of like I predicted might happen.

no doubt the kids got skill in spades, it's the heart and work ethic that are non existent.

 

[RLF]

PDO is a function of

sh% and sv%

sh% is a function of team offense

sv% is a function of team defense

PDO shouldn't really be viewed as as a go to statistic for luck IMO; it gives some information but not all the information. Example: Last season zone starts Vs this season zone starts; QoC, QoT etc...

Yes and if they add up to above 100, you are lucky. Below 100, you're not. Yes, we should hang our hat on that as how lucky a player is. So if you're Oish% is 11%(quite high) and SV% only 88...you are unlucky? Where? sounds like your scoring well but can't stop a beach ball. How is that luck?

 

[egd27]

no doubt the kids got skill in spades, it's the heart and work ethic that are non existent.

I can't fathom sitting out for the absolute top end of your market value, letting it be known that one of the reasons for that is that you don't want to be traded, and then finally return and look so damn lethargic.

Saturday night he decided he was going after a puck against Miller. He really tried to engage and not only got the puck but drew the penalty that resulted in Marner's goal. Where is that effort all the time?

I want big money, I want to stay in Toronto, but I don't want to give my all every night. I was hoping those country club days were over.

 

[rumman]

I can't fathom sitting out for the absolute top end of your market value, letting it be known that one of the reasons for that is that you don't want to be traded, and then finally return and look so damn lethargic.

Saturday night he decided he was going after a puck against Miller. He really tried to engage and not only got the puck but drew the penalty that resulted in Marner's goal. Where is that effort all the time?

I want big money, I want to stay in Toronto, but I don't want to give my all every night. I was hoping those country club days were over.

one can't help but question his commitment to being a player of impact or just showing up to collect a paycheck like his father did.

 

[Bigmarycombo]

These statistics guys have you believe Willy is

The best zone entry player in the league
The best possession player on the team
The best stick checking player in the neutral zone(whatever
The hell makes you proud of that stat)
The best shot suppression player on our team

Now I’ll tell you what Willy is the best at

Willy is the best player in the league for not going to the dirty area
Willy is the best player in the league for bailing on gointo into a corner first
Willy is the best in the league for jumping out of the way when a dman takes a shot at our goalie
Willy is the best in the league fiorvnever taking a hit to make a play

All the nylander supporting posters tried to make us believe the following

Willy should be paid as an elite player capable of scoring 90 points in the future and should be paid as such

Willy is an elite superstar because no one ever has recorded back to back 61 point seasons at his age.

Willy will be better or just as good as marner and should be paid close to the same

In reality here is what Willy is

A good complimentary player, capable of putting up half decent number while playing with the a top 5 best player in the nhl.

A winger or center who doesn’t make anyone he plays with better.

A soft perimeter player with no drive or determination to become elite because that would mean he would have to actually fight for the puck in the corners and in front of the net

Now one side will label me a hater the other side will give me likes

I don’t care about either I honestly believe you can’t win a cup with a guy with Willy’s drive and lack of a spine.

 

[RLF]

Quite ironic to see that post after I had already written @HouseofBuggins a respectful response. You see, he knows that you can discuss and criticize without being toxic about it or gloating about the misfortunes of our own players.


One of those things I've always heard, but almost never seen in practice. As I see it, it often becomes one poster with an opinion backed up by tangible evidence, and another poster who backs it up with anecdotal evidence.

In the other thread I discussed with someone about stretch passes from Gardiner. I use tangible evidence to show that he's actually been very good at it, he argues differently. I'm likely not going to buy his arguments when he's basically just saying that he doesn't agree and sees things differently. I might if he argues that such a stat might not always be an accurate representation, and backs it up with a number of good pieces of video evidence. But hey, who honestly has the energy for that?

He most certainly needs to be better. Was good in the offensive zone last night, but did not like the rest of his game.

Are you using video evidence to back up your "tangible evidence"?

The poster is saying that the analytics crowd does not back up things with video evidence either and expect people to just believe in the ADv stats. Stats that are flawed when not used in the proper context and fail to show the whole story in general. Yet, the analytic crowd say it is fact and unless you are willing to go to greater extents than they are, to prove otherwise, they dismiss any argument. They also tend to questions peoples intelligence if they disagree with the stats. He is saying there is no arguing their stance because they are unwilling to see it another way unless you jump through more hoops than they have to, and still unlikely to give any credit to another view.

 

[RLF]

I can't fathom sitting out for the absolute top end of your market value, letting it be known that one of the reasons for that is that you don't want to be traded, and then finally return and look so damn lethargic.

Saturday night he decided he was going after a puck against Miller. He really tried to engage and not only got the puck but drew the penalty that resulted in Marner's goal. Where is that effort all the time?

I want big money, I want to stay in Toronto, but I don't want to give my all every night. I was hoping those country club days were over.

That is what seems to get lost to some. He shows he can, but too many times decides not to. It's frustrating. It's like if the puck is more than 10' from him...that's it, not doing it.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

He’s the bad guy for not taking a discount.

He’s also a bad guy for having just 1 goal in 17 games.

But you know who else has just 1 goal in over 17 games? Kadri.

If it’s the 1 goal that bothers folks, this should be equally applied.

Since it is punishing the spoiled brat that folks really want to see... therein lies the difference.

Not sure how Jake Gardiner factors in there but there we go.

Wasn't the majority opinion that his numbers would likely dip with the arrival of Tavares? Him being on pae for 47 points (50 something if he had some bloody luck) seems about right for a third line centre. Wish he had more powerplay points but that whole aspect of this team has struggled for nearly a month.

Also, Kadri didn't hold out for months and is making less money than Nylander. I think the amount of criticism Naz is getting currently for his failure to produce results and his so-so play has been adequate.

 

[Pookie]

Wasn't the majority opinion that his numbers would likely dip with the arrival of Tavares? Him being on pae for 47 points (50 something if he had some bloody luck) seems about right for a third line centre. Wish he had more powerplay points but that whole aspect of this team has struggled for nearly a month.

Also, Kadri didn't hold out for months and is making less money than Nylander. I think the amount of criticism Naz is getting currently for his failure to produce results and his so-so play has been adequate.

Well if there were lowered expectations for Kadri, they weren’t considering that he would face 3/4th lines like he has been.

In any event, 3 points more than Komarov at EV, 1 goal in 17+ games, -whatever he is.... it’s a struggle for him.

It’s a struggle for Nylander.

Kadri didn’t hold out (though he threatened to in the early days) but that’s precisely my point. Folks aren’t upset at the performance in so much as they are pissed at the circumstance/character they perceive him to be

 

[Tables of Stats]

Well if there were lowered expectations for Kadri, they weren’t considering that he would face 3/4th lines like he has been.

In any event, 3 points more than Komarov at EV, 1 goal in 17+ games, -whatever he is.... it’s a struggle for him.

It’s a struggle for Nylander.

Kadri didn’t hold out (though he threatened to in the early days) but that’s precisely my point. Folks aren’t upset at the performance in so much as they are pissed at the circumstance/character they perceive him to be

Kadri also has a better contract befitting the role he's playing in and the point's he's producing, isn't a young player most fans expected to take another step, and is generating assists at a high enough rate to continue to earn PP time. Nylander is none of these things.

 

[hullsy47]

I find it ironic when those who always go to stats to try to prove what they want all to believe and that are completely unwilling to see it any other way...also saying they get tired of other posters who just won't listen.
If you show other stats that contradict what they want people to believe...those stats don't count. In other words...they don't help my agenda, so I am not listening. Ironic really.

nylander wasn't signed for his advanced stats
he let dubas down IMO

 

[LeafingTheWay]

I could say the same to you.

Yes, I am using 5v5. I didn't use PP because the claim is he wasn't getting much PP time this year...so why bother? Has he been producing this season on the PP that I am unaware of? Would you rather I bring up that he has 0 PPP as well.

What on earth do you mean don't bother with no PP? If you were predicting 50-55 points at 5v5 for Nylander (I.e with NO PP), that's fricken elite.

You have claimed that it is just a matter of time for Willy to produce, for weeks now I might add, and mainly because of a low Oish% because he has good possession and transition numbers. I am using the same stats you have, but applied them to Nylander's career, not just the start of this season like you have. Better picture, no?

No it's not a better picture, because you're describing an inaccurate picture. Which is why I asked what you were rambling on about.

16-17: 6.69% (Normal but low), 16.04% PP (Slightly high - Same as Marner/Kadri/JVR PP 17-18 season)
17-18: 12.05% (Unsustainable, too high), 12.67% PP (Slightly low for him and Matthews - Even lower than Marner's 16-17 season)
18-19: 5.60% (Unsustainable, too low), 4.76% PP (Insanely low)

All 3 seasons he has had fantastic possession numbers, zone entries, high-danger chances, etc. 1st season was normal, 2nd season was balanced out to normal, 3rd season is a shitshow in how unlucky he is.

Basically you are saying his line mates are also the problem. They are not burying their chances either. It's not just Willy.

Did you know that Willy traditionally has one of the lowest Oish% among our top forwards as well as one of the lower s%, even though he is one of the better possession players? Do you really think 1-3% difference this year in Oish% off his norm would have helped his production that much?

For instance, Nylander typically has better possession numbers than Matthews and Marner, but a lower Oish% and s%. Their PDO, or luck, balance out about even. This would suggest that although Nylander helps with possession, himself and linemates do not produce as much as the other two who have the puck less and similar luck.

3% is massive in terms of oish%, you do realize that right...

Also Matthews/Nylander always have similar possession numbers so I'm not sure what point you're trying to bring? And where do you see that Marner has the same luck as Matthews/Nylander? That's not true at all...

If you are saying that his production this year is bad mostly because of "bad luck" and extremely low Oish%. Then what about last year? Willy had an extremely high PDO and Oish%. Wouldn't this mean that last year he got unusually lucky and his line mates buried an unusual amount of chances even though Willy had the same production as his previous year. He did not produce more, even though the numbers suggest he should have. So, should I conclude he is not a 61 pt player because last year he got very luck and was helped out by line mates in order to just reach his previous years production where he had less luck and less line mate help. Which is the outlier. Last season or the previous one?

Again, refer to above. He had a high oish% last season. He did get more 'luckier' last year. But as I mentioned a bunch of times, the PP numbers were absurdly low for the entire Matthews/Nylander PP that year. So yes, it balanced out. Please refer to the above posts to help you out there.

PDO/Oish%/S% are all related. If Willy's personal s% wasn't an abysmal 5.4% instead of his typical 11%, the Oish% and PDO would be higher. If Willy's S% was 11% his PDO would be 100.8 and no one would be talking about bad luck. His Oish% would also be higher, likely closer to his average of around 7% through the 15-16 and 16-17 season and no one would be talking about his team mates not burying chances. Who is responsible for Willy's s%? Willy. Like I said, he misses the net too much in prime areas. He has got great looks, but missed the net. He even said himself last night that he needs to hit the net more. It's really that simple. You can't score if you miss the net or get blocked all the time. That's not bad luck, it's poor shooting.

Yes, you do realize when I say on-ice sh% I'm referring to not only his linemates, but HIS play as well right? For example when I defend Kadri, I refer to his low on-ice sh% even though he's a shooter/goal-scorer. When I talk about a low on-ice sh% with Kadri, it is obviously implied Kadri is missing the net or hitting posts like crazy. Like he has this season and everyone knows this.

Also I hope you know that 'luck' isn't actually 'luck'. It's a term used to refer to how different it is from the NORMAL. A high oish% is 'lucky' because it is uncommon and WILL return to the normal soon. A low oish% is 'unlucky' because it is common and WILL return to the normal soon.

Filip Forsberg just missed 17 games form Nov30-Jan7 with a hand injury. Pretty hard to practice your shot with a hand injury. He has 4 goals in 4 games since returning.

So please, enough of the - be patient, just look at the stats, it's his line mates, it should be expected, stats say he will rebound...any day now, you'll see. Eventually you will be right, he will produce better. If he doesn't really get going, you can tell us all...next year he will be better, we should not have expected much this year.
Then again, if we are supposed to wait until 3/4 of the year or later for him to get going, then he should have settled for a 1 year contract at about $3M-$4M not what he held out for.

Sorry for the length of this, just really tired of all the excuses for a guy who just didn't get himself ready to come back.

The same explaination I've provided to you earlier is the SAME explanation used to explain the big rare slumps Crosby, Giroux, Voracek, Bergeron, Ovechkin, Marner, Kadri, etc have had in their careers. Yet somehow there's always someone like you trying to blame the stats. Every single damn year I have this same exact argument with someone. Then they turn quiet after the oish% rises to normal.

Of course I agree he wasn't in proper shape when he came back. But after the first 6 games, he was back to great play but unlucky oish%.

Let me ask you this. Do you honestly think that a player playing with Matthews/Kadri/Johnsson would get 2 points in 18ish games if he wasn't unlucky? Do you think Matthews/Kadri/Johnsson are garbage to not produce themselves in those 18 games with him on the ice? Is Nylander that garbage right now to prevent those guys from putting up points? The entire team is in a dry-spell right now and Nylander's caught along with it.

So again: Patience. Patience. Patience. If it were up to fans like you and media like Kypreos, Marner would have been traded last season and long-gone.

 

[Stephen]

Since he's come back, there are moments where Nylander looks a little Nail Yakupov out there. Not suggesting he's a non NHL bust, but he just goes out there with this sneaky lazy game where he's moving his feet a million miles an hour, whipping his stick on flybys, looking busy, skating like he's being chased by bees but gets nothing done and bails on the puck and play the moment he sees someone's shadow.