Prediction Contest: Nylander Points Total: 2018-19

Nylander’s 2018-19 Points

  • 0-25 points

  • 26-35 points

  • 36-45 points

  • 46-55 points

  • HOLY MAKINAW! 56+ points!!


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RLF

Registered User
May 5, 2014
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What on earth do you mean don't bother with no PP? If you were predicting 50-55 points at 5v5 for Nylander (I.e with NO PP), that's fricken elite.



No it's not a better picture, because you're describing an inaccurate picture. Which is why I asked what you were rambling on about.

16-17: 6.69% (Normal but low), 16.04% PP (Slightly high - Same as Marner/Kadri/JVR PP 17-18 season)
17-18: 12.05% (Unsustainable, too high), 12.67% PP (Slightly low for him and Matthews - Even lower than Marner's 16-17 season)
18-19: 5.60% (Unsustainable, too low), 4.76% PP (Insanely low)

All 3 seasons he has had fantastic possession numbers, zone entries, high-danger chances, etc. 1st season was normal, 2nd season was balanced out to normal, 3rd season is a ****show in how unlucky he is.



3% is massive in terms of oish%, you do realize that right...

Also Matthews/Nylander always have similar possession numbers so I'm not sure what point you're trying to bring? And where do you see that Marner has the same luck as Matthews/Nylander? That's not true at all...



Again, refer to above. He had a high oish% last season. He did get more 'luckier' last year. But as I mentioned a bunch of times, the PP numbers were absurdly low for the entire Matthews/Nylander PP that year. So yes, it balanced out. Please refer to the above posts to help you out there.



Yes, you do realize when I say on-ice sh% I'm referring to not only his linemates, but HIS play as well right? For example when I defend Kadri, I refer to his low on-ice sh% even though he's a shooter/goal-scorer. When I talk about a low on-ice sh% with Kadri, it is obviously implied Kadri is missing the net or hitting posts like crazy. Like he has this season and everyone knows this.

Also I hope you know that 'luck' isn't actually 'luck'. It's a term used to refer to how different it is from the NORMAL. A high oish% is 'lucky' because it is uncommon and WILL return to the normal soon. A low oish% is 'unlucky' because it is common and WILL return to the normal soon.



The same explaination I've provided to you earlier is the SAME explanation used to explain the big rare slumps Crosby, Giroux, Voracek, Bergeron, Ovechkin, Marner, Kadri, etc have had in their careers. Yet somehow there's always someone like you trying to blame the stats. Every single damn year I have this same exact argument with someone. Then they turn quiet after the oish% rises to normal.

Of course I agree he wasn't in proper shape when he came back. But after the first 6 games, he was back to great play but unlucky oish%.

Let me ask you this. Do you honestly think that a player playing with Matthews/Kadri/Johnsson would get 2 points in 18ish games if he wasn't unlucky? Do you think Matthews/Kadri/Johnsson are garbage to not produce themselves in those 18 games with him on the ice? Is Nylander that garbage right now to prevent those guys from putting up points? The entire team is in a dry-spell right now and Nylander's caught along with it.

So again: Patience. Patience. Patience. If it were up to fans like you and media like Kypreos, Marner would have been traded last season and long-gone.

1.I said I wasn't using his PP stats as it is not relevant to the stats you are using to show he is effective this year 5vs5 but unlucky. No clue where you came up with the above stuff.

2. You say be patient, it will even out. So, how is using bigger previous sample sizes not accurate. You may be the first person I have ever heard of to say this years small sample size tells a better story than a players entire career. You are reaching huge.

3. I said he was always a good possession player etc. He also has typically had a below average s% for a high end player, which would say for all the "high danger chances" he is the one not converting. Hyman has had similar s% to Nylander.

4. I said 1-3% Oish% is not much over 17 games. Do you read or just react? It would be significant over a season or career obviously. Even using the high end of 3%, that of course you chose. That is 3 more goals on 100 shots as a unit. There is also no guarantee that Nylander is involved in the extra production. If you take Nylanders shot totals, Kadri's avg and Marleau's avg, that is 104 shots or 3 more goals in the 17 games. Other than Rielly, our D doesn't shoot alot. Let's say the D contribute to one more goal with the extra 3 % Oish% over the 17 games. Now let's be generous and say Nylander picked up a point on 1/2 those extra 4 goals. He now has 5 pts in 17 games. Happy now?

5. Funny, how the stats only balance in the ways you want them to over their season or careers. Other balancing figures are dismissed. Who knew.

6. I get the Oish% refers to him as well..when have you related the Oish% to him? Must have missed where you talked about his fault in that.

7. If it's not really "luck", why call it lucky or unlucky then? I know how PDO is calculated and totally understand how many say it will either regress or climb to the mean. There is no luck involved. It's called Luck so that it takes the onus of a player or players poor play or poor shooting.

8. You are also acting like it is a given that these stats always return to the mean. No, they don't.

9. He was not back to great play in 6 games. That is a ridiculous statement.

I never said Nylander was garbage nor have I said Matthews/Kadri/Marner are. I haven't said we need to trade Nylander or that his play wouldn't improve. Show me where I have said any of this. You can't. So maybe try reading what I have said and not get so defensive in order to defend your "stats evidence." I have actually stated the areas I thought where Willy has improved and said when he has had a good game despite no points. So please spare me the "people like me would have traded Marner" as I have not suggested to do so. At least get your fact straight before you call me out.

Let me ask you this.
In your belief, Nylander has been playing great since games 6 and the only thing that has held him back is bad luck (as you describe it)?

Here's the difference. "Hockey people" watch the games, can evaluate through their own experience a players play. They will look at the stats to see if they match the eye. If there is an anomaly, they will either re-watch or pay attention more in the future to that anomaly to see if it is accurate. They can see the subtleties of the games and stats are there to offer some insight. They also understand that the stats cannot tell the whole story. Stats need to be placed in context with actual on ice play analysis.

Then there are the "analytics" like you. They need some so-called "tangible evidence" to use to argue their own agendas. They watch the games and then turn to the stats to tell the story. If the stats can be cherry picked to push an agenda, they do it. If a player is not producing, they turn to stats to defend those they like or trash those they don't. They use stats and act like it is irrefutable evidence, even though many stats have been shown to be flawed over the years. I have yet to see an analytic type on this board offer up stats without an agenda. It is always to defend someone they like or trash someone they don't. I can't ever remember an analytic type showing "all" the stats to form a full picture, using the good and the bad.

And this is why you can't have a reasonable discussion about players with people like you.
 

RLF

Registered User
May 5, 2014
3,303
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I've also noticed that once he makes an elite zone entry, he often curls at the boards and, if challenged, dumps the puck into the corner. So an elite entry amounts to nothing unless his centre or wing partner wins the corner board battle.

Well maybe not nothing, I suppose it pumps up the zone entry stats.

No, No No, just be patient, Those turn backs and then dump into the corner will eventually balance out and become goals. That kind of play always comes back to the mean. It's people like you that actually watch and analyze plays that have no clue what is really going on. Stats are infallible and don't lie. Do not let your eyes deceive you. :DD
 

hullsy47

Registered User
Dec 7, 2005
6,338
1,043
No, No No, just be patient, Those turn backs and then dump into the corner will eventually balance out and become goals. That kind of play always comes back to the mean. It's people like you that actually watch and analyze plays that have no clue what is really going on. Stats are infallible and don't lie. Do not let your eyes deceive you. :DD
lets hope its sometime this season
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
23,355
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Richmond Hill, ON
Not so sure about that.

3 months ago I know I loved this guy and thought he was part of the solution to us moving forward in the playoffs.

Much more of this sort of production and the Canes and everyone else will be thinking differently.

We threw $7 ish at him because we all thought he would continue to get better. Instead, he's kinda dropped off a cliff so far. We complain about $6 for Marleau, but so far this year he's been giving us 2.5 times as many P/GP.

We're at 17 games now. Is this still a small sample size?

Yes, 17 games is too small a sample size. GMs sold on Willie know that Willie has put up back to back 60+ point seasons and will give him the benefit of the doubt. There have been numerous other players who have had one bad season and were subsequently traded.
 

LeafFever

Registered User
Feb 12, 2016
18,890
6,178
Yes, 17 games is too small a sample size. GMs sold on Willie know that Willie has put up back to back 60+ point seasons and will give him the benefit of the doubt. There have been numerous other players who have had one bad season and were subsequently traded.
Especially when they are only 22.
 
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ZEBROA

Registered User
Dec 21, 2017
3,554
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If i was Buffalo i would try to get Nylander for that Finnish D, right now before he gets out of the hold out mental lock. So the Nylanders can get bold( but scared), together on the same team.
 

RLF

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May 5, 2014
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I appreciate the work you put into this, but I don't think you understood where I was getting at...

Stats can only be so useful if they are used in the right context. I'm not one of those people that thinks that analytics is useless... heck, I use stats all the time in my field of work... but I do think that many here don't know what they're talking about when it comes it.

Points/Goals are whats most important in hockey. If you outscore your oponent, you win the game. This is why many here care more about actual output than underlying statistics. There are other facets of the game that help you win games... Blocking shots for instance... if you block a shot, you possibly prevent a goal being scored which is a good thing.... still, you can block 10 shots in a game, but it doesn't matter if the opponent still outscores you. Zone entry stats is another one... A player can be the best player in the world at entering the opponents zone... This isn't a bad thing, because it means that you likely have the puck in the opponents zone more than your own, and it SHOULD translate to offense... but elite zone entry doesn't matter if it doesn't ultimately doesn't translate to goals scored.

Saying someone is elite at zone entry to defend how good they are is kind of like saying how elite someone is at blocking shots to defend how good they are...

That is what many are also saying, but when you have a guy who's belief is "The main reason analytics is crucial is to let people know the context and what's really going on, instead of simply guessing." let's you know they believe stats are the deciding factor. Ironically, Willy has one of the worst thru% on the team, which would indicate he misses the net a lot or gets blocked a lot. Ennis, Marleau, Leivo and Gauthier are all in the top 10 at getting pucks through this year. Would anyone consider those 4 strong controlled entry players? And where is all their goals it creates? Hyman is also 2nd on the team in thru% and he is a dump and chase kind of player. Like you said, you have to add context by watching, not add context off of a piece of data.
 
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Sweet Leaf

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Jun 24, 2013
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Toronto
One of the most prolific Nylander defenders and advanced stats guy made a post a couple of weeks that showed he didn't even know how face off coverage in the D zone works.

He's spouting off all these corsi numbers relating to Nylander's greatness we keep missing and he didn't know Subban was Nylander's responsibility in the D Zone off the faceoff. Hockey 101. He knew exactly what Nylander's OISH% in that game was though.
 
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RLF

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May 5, 2014
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One of the most prolific Nylander defenders and advanced stats guy made a post a couple of weeks that showed he didn't even know how face off coverage in the D zone works.

He's spouting off all these corsi numbers relating to Nylander's greatness we keep missing and he didn't know Subban was Nylander's responsibility in the D Zone off the faceoff. Hockey 101. He knew exactly what Nylander's OISH% in that game was though.

Yes, but blocked shots have been shown through statistics to have little to no effect on goals against.:huh: You would think it would make sense that if the puck doesn't get through, it can't go in,:nod: but actually it has no real bearing on preventing goals.:help: True story.
 
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Faltorvo

Registered User
Feb 18, 2008
21,067
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Yes, 17 games is too small a sample size. GMs sold on Willie know that Willie has put up back to back 60+ point seasons and will give him the benefit of the doubt. There have been numerous other players who have had one bad season and were subsequently traded.

HUH!!!

Viktor Arvidsson ,,same draft as melander

4.25m cap hit,,,,,,, x7

31 and 29g seasons,,,back to back 61 point seasons

this season ONLY 25 GP =18 goals and 25 points

no mathews level c to play with

No JT/MM line to hide behind

oh did i mention he was drafted the same yer as Melander???????

Melander could not hold this MANS cup
 

ToneDog

56 years and counting. #FireTheShanaClan!
Jun 11, 2017
23,355
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Richmond Hill, ON
HUH!!!

Viktor Arvidsson ,,same draft as melander

4.25m cap hit,,,,,,, x7

31 and 29g seasons,,,back to back 61 point seasons

this season ONLY 25 GP =18 goals and 25 points

no mathews level c to play with

No JT/MM line to hide behind

oh did i mention he was drafted the same yer as Melander???????

Melander could not hold this MANS cup

Ardvisson took Nashville dollars. Savvy and Stellick were ripping Nylander for the line change he made on TB's second goal. Friedman was questioning the route he took (i,e, skated behind the TB net and then to the bench).

If looked bad but I have no idea if criticism is warranted. Babs would have to answer that. My issue is that he keeps looking disinterested. You would think he would want to make Dubas look good for signing him. Instead he is making Dubas look like a fool.

Some don't care for Burke, but yesterday he said Nylander will be traded in the summer. Friedman said it before he signed and I agree with both.
 

Nithoniniel

Registered User
Sep 7, 2012
20,913
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Ardvisson took Nashville dollars. Savvy and Stellick were ripping Nylander for the line change he made on TB's second goal. Friedman was questioning the route he took (i,e, skated behind the TB net and then to the bench).

If looked bad but I have no idea if criticism is warranted.
I don't see how it is. Nylander didn't take a weird route to the bench. He went behind the net to flush the puck out and force Vasilevskiy to make a rushed, difficult play. Vasi made a great play, taking that puck and immediately playing it past the forecheck. Nylander was then the last man home, which is nothing weird either, and made a change behind the play where his guy picked up the last Tampa d-man. Meanwhile, Hyman was supposed to cover Hedman but got beat and couldn't recover.

It's one of those cases where I don't understand why people reach so hard to complain about him when a better reason is right in front of your nose. He has 3 points. That's abysmal no matter what else he does.
 

Nithoniniel

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Sep 7, 2012
20,913
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Skövde, Sweden
I've also noticed that once he makes an elite zone entry, he often curls at the boards and, if challenged, dumps the puck into the corner. So an elite entry amounts to nothing unless his centre or wing partner wins the corner board battle.

Well maybe not nothing, I suppose it pumps up the zone entry stats.
Willy doesn't just have elite zone entries. He moves the puck well up the ice, he gets it in well, and once in the zone, he helps us maintain possession, he makes a ton of plays ending up in chances, and he gets those chances to be in pretty good territory.

The zone entries are not an outlier coming from nothing and resulting in nothing. It's part of a complete picture.

My biggest gripe about advanced stats is when people place a higher value on them than real production. On twitter I will see a lot of "Nylanders CF% and xGF% were better than marners so therefore he played better." Meanwhile marners over there like uhh yeah I just got 3 assists.
People who say that don't know how to handle shot metrics. Their value is derived from conclusions you can draw over massive samples, so they are not very useful in individual games. And I agree to an extent about results. Take this game for example. I think Matthews and Nylander created more and better chances than Tavares and Marner. However, Tavares made an incredible play and Marner did well to get away from traffic. In an individual game, you only need the one stroke of genius if it results in a goal. Now if this was a pattern that repeated itself over and over I might feel differently, but it's not.

lso the "unlucky" aspect with a low PDO and low sh% can tell you he should be getting better breaks. It can also tell you well maybe he just ****ing sucks at finishing and scoring on NHL goaltenders right now. Last time I checked, it is kind of important to be good at getting the puck past a goalie.
Well, Nylander and his linemates have been getting good chances. I do agree with the second part here. Willy has been slow to get shots off and doesn't get them through traffic enough. Those kind of things mean you shouldn't necessarily expect him to score on as many chances as he normally did. And his shot selection has always been pretty poor, so he was never going to be an effective goalscorer. Just a pretty one.
 

RLF

Registered User
May 5, 2014
3,303
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Ardvisson took Nashville dollars. Savvy and Stellick were ripping Nylander for the line change he made on TB's second goal. Friedman was questioning the route he took (i,e, skated behind the TB net and then to the bench).

If looked bad but I have no idea if criticism is warranted. Babs would have to answer that. My issue is that he keeps looking disinterested. You would think he would want to make Dubas look good for signing him. Instead he is making Dubas look like a fool.

Some don't care for Burke, but yesterday he said Nylander will be traded in the summer. Friedman said it before he signed and I agree with both.

I think he got ripped on the line change because after Vas played it past the forecheck, Willy still went to the bench and Hedman was Willy`s guy as he forechecked from that side. Hyman was already on the bench side with the other D, he is in good position and backchecked with his man. When Willy just continues to the bench, Hedman takes off because he is left alone and by the time Hyman leaves his guy and gets to Hedman, it`s too late. Communication from Willy to Hyman could have possibly avoided it. But unfair for people to say it`s Hyman`s fault because he didn`t leave his guy and cover Hedman. Willy played well I thought last night, but it is those kind of lack of attentions to detail that Willy still needs to improve on.
 
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Throw More Waffles

Unprecedented Dramatic Overpayments
Oct 9, 2015
12,889
9,737
HUH!!!

Viktor Arvidsson ,,same draft as melander

4.25m cap hit,,,,,,, x7

31 and 29g seasons,,,back to back 61 point seasons

this season ONLY 25 GP =18 goals and 25 points

no mathews level c to play with

No JT/MM line to hide behind

oh did i mention he was drafted the same yer as Melander???????

Melander could not hold this MANS cup

This should be stickied to the top of the leafs board.
I’m at the point that I think Dubas should be fired for the Nylander contract.

I understand that Dubas tried his best but got played... but what I don’t understand is why so many fans are happy paying our players so much more than their comparables make.
 
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rumman

Registered User
Sep 10, 2008
13,348
9,428
This should be stickied to the top of the leafs board.
I’m at the point that I think Dubas should be fired for the Nylander contract.

I understand that Dubas tried his best but got played... but what I don’t understand is why so many fans are happy paying our players so much more than their comparables make.
Dubas definitely needs to do much better on upcoming contract negotiations that's for damn sure. He could single handedly sink the ship screwing up the AM/MM/KK contracts.
 
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Suntouchable13

Registered User
Dec 20, 2003
43,033
18,049
Toronto, ON
I get that Willy has had some good chances to score, but he has to finish at some point. People can cite advanced stats only so much. At some point, it's more than a slump. Let's hope the floodgates open any game now.
 
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Faltorvo

Registered User
Feb 18, 2008
21,067
1,941
Willy doesn't just have elite zone entries. He moves the puck well up the ice, he gets it in well, and once in the zone, he helps us maintain possession, he makes a ton of plays ending up in chances, and he gets those chances to be in pretty good territory.

The zone entries are not an outlier coming from nothing and resulting in nothing. It's part of a complete picture.


People who say that don't know how to handle shot metrics. Their value is derived from conclusions you can draw over massive samples, so they are not very useful in individual games. And I agree to an extent about results. Take this game for example. I think Matthews and Nylander created more and better chances than Tavares and Marner. However, Tavares made an incredible play and Marner did well to get away from traffic. In an individual game, you only need the one stroke of genius if it results in a goal. Now if this was a pattern that repeated itself over and over I might feel differently, but it's not.


Well, Nylander and his linemates have been getting good chances. I do agree with the second part here. Willy has been slow to get shots off and doesn't get them through traffic enough. Those kind of things mean you shouldn't necessarily expect him to score on as many chances as he normally did. And his shot selection has always been pretty poor, so he was never going to be an effective goalscorer. Just a pretty one.
:blah::blah::blah::blah::blah::blah::blah::blah::blah::blah::blah:


19 GP 3 lousy points and -9

he is not even worth dressing ATM

the leafs have been BAD since Melanders return.
 
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mikeo1

Registered User
Jan 6, 2008
2,902
310
Vancouver
After 18 games, the Wonder Boy Nylander has produced 1 goal and 2 assists and most Leafs fans here still adore him. I suppose Matthews' 1 goal during the past 10 games is also nothing to be concerned about.
Are you blind? And why do you keep posting on the Leafs board?
 

jfc64

Registered User
Jul 2, 2006
4,297
348
Everything that matters is Willie's play the last 20-30 games of the season and playoffs.

PS. FOUR (4) TEAMS HAVE MORE POINTS THAN THE LEAFS!! IN THE STANDINGS. DISASTER!! WHO'S RESPONSIB-AAAA-AAAAL?? People come from far way to look at the HIGH PAID player who doesn't score. Crutches, wagons and helicopters guide them Young and old. Even ladies. Children marvel and everyone gather around the pots and pans and stew under the tents.

My guess is buddies Nylander and Kapanen work their asses of in the gym right now. Sami hasn't scored a point either last twenty games.
 
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