Prediction Contest: Nylander Points Total: 2018-19

[Stephen]

Not making any excuses for Nylander, but he and Kadri have historically not been very compatible chemistry-wise.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

At 7 million cap hit and considered part of the core, there is only so long you can go with looking better and good advanced stats.
Points must come with it.
It’s the price you pay for being called elite.

Crosby. Ovechkin. Marner. Kadri. Giroux. Voracek. Bergeron. Etc.

All have had unlcuky oish% long slumps.

Advanced stats GIVES you context into WHY points aren't there yet. Don't be like those guys that thought Crosby/Ovechkin/etc were on the decline when they had those unlucky oish% slumps.

 

[socko]

I guess I should have, problem is ALL leafs fans have to deal with the **** years too.

I don’t love every leaf player far from it but while they are in a leaf jersey I want them to play well. For example I think brown hasn’t been great this year and hope we look to move him on, but when he scores I cheer and yell broooown.

Some here have such a hatred for nylander whenever he does something good they can’t turn back into leaf fans and be happy. There was a poster that claimed the 1 goal (1 goal clearly isn’t good enough so far by th way) was because of matthews, if you remeber matthews barely even touched that puck, and that’s just a single example

I never thought Rielly was going to be a 1D, happy to be wrong. But I never questioned his heart. You can't play hockey without it. You give $7 million to Willy it's no different than Trump trying to payoff Stormy Daniels. It's not going to end well. The trust is misplaced.

 

[Trapper]

Crosby. Ovechkin. Marner. Kadri. Giroux. Voracek. Bergeron. Etc.

All have had unlcuky oish% long slumps.

Advanced stats GIVES you context into WHY points aren't there yet. Don't be like those guys that thought Crosby/Ovechkin/etc were on the decline when they had those unlucky oish% slumps.

Nowhere did I say on the decline.
Why it’s there is fine.
But just why it’s there alone can’t go forever.
The guys you mentioned aren’t 22 and are career PPG players.
Of course there are highs and lows.
But if you want elite status, points have to go with it at some point. You have to have something to decline from.

 

[CelticDruid]

I see that the clique is out in full force with their nonsensical hatred and frothing at the mouth opinions.

Too many have been drinking from muddy pond water.

 

[DarkKnight]

At 7 million cap hit and considered part of the core, there is only so long you can go with looking better and good advanced stats.
Points must come with it.
It’s the price you pay for being called elite.

It is true. Without the points nobody cares about your zone entries.

 

[saffronleaf]

Nylander will be fine but for heaven's sake Egocock play him with Matthews. Matthews kapanen aj is basically a grind line.

 

[PaulD]

At 7 million cap hit and considered part of the core, there is only so long you can go with looking better and good advanced stats.
Points must come with it.
It’s the price you pay for being called elite.

Especially a problem when the players is not "elite"

 

[PaulD]

Nylander will be fine but for heaven's sake Egocock play him with Matthews. Matthews kapanen aj is basically a grind line.

playing with Matthews he has been a 20 goal scorer.

Playing with Matthews I'm a 10.

 

[GoonieFace]

Nylander will be fine but for heaven's sake Egocock play him with Matthews. Matthews kapanen aj is basically a grind line.

You don’t pay a guy $7 mil/year if he is solely reliant on one player to make him better. The guy is a joke

 

[LeafingTheWay]

Nowhere did I say on the decline.
Why it’s there is fine.
But just why it’s there alone can’t go forever.
The guys you mentioned aren’t 22 and are career PPG players.
Of course there are highs and lows.
But if you want elite status, points have to go with it at some point. You have to have something to decline from.

Again, you're not understanding what a low on-ice sh% is. Until you do this conversation is useless.

1) This CAN'T go on forever. A low oish% always rebounds to the mean/normal.
2) What on earth does age or being elite have anything to do with this. If you are getting unlucky (as the stats directly show), then you will not put up points for that unlucky stretch.
3) Marner was terribly unlucky last season too during the first 29 games. Everyone was freaking out, but you know why you shouldn't have? Because a low oish% always returns to normal. And guess what happened? Marner went on to put up a 90 point pace up after that slump, to finish the season with 69 points.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

You don’t pay a guy $7 mil/year if he is solely reliant on one player to make him better. The guy is a joke

He doesn't need Matthews to make him better.

He's a playmaker like Backstrom. You need finishers. Kadri and Matthews both are unlucky themselves right now when it comes to finishing. Once they're back to norm, Nylander will return too.

 

[Trapper]

Again, you're not understanding what a low on-ice sh% is. Until you do this conversation is useless.

1) This CAN'T go on forever. A low oish% always rebounds to the mean/normal.
2) What on earth does age or being elite have anything to do with this. If you are getting unlucky (as the stats directly show), then you will not put up points for that unlucky stretch.
3) Marner was terribly unlucky last season too during the first 29 games. Everyone was freaking out, but you know why you shouldn't have? Because a low oish% always returns to normal. And guess what happened? Marner went on to put up a 90 point pace up after that slump, to finish the season with 69 points.

I think you’re missing the point.
If it can’t go on forever then points must come with it. Therefore, at the end of the day you are putting up points. Which is what I said must come with it.

But what happens if they don’t? What do you say?

 

[socko]

I think we had a better team before Nylander signed. Dubas had his reputation intact. Kapanen was on pace for 30 goals and 60 points. Matthews was on pace for career highs. It's all gone down hill since then.

 

[diceman934]

You may not be complaining but there would still be quite a few complaining. Unfortunately nylander has been complained about since his first full season by more than a few and there is nothing he can do.

Example
Nylander: 1st full season 26 pp points
Posters: he is just a pp specialist

Marner: 2nd full season 27 pp points
Poster: he may be the best player on the pp in the league (this was no more than only a couple of posters saying this to be fair)

There is plenty he can do. Like be a hockey player. Compete for pucks and not stop skating towards pucks that he can get to first if that means taking a check. Be willing to take a check to help the team win. And get his body in front of pucks when going out to the point. His skill is undeniable but his fear is as well.

You were among a group of posters who constantly stated that Nylander was better then Marner. He never was better, then you revised it to a better 5on5 player. Again wrong. Now you keep bring up Marner in Nylander threads. Leave the Marner name out of Nylander thread as they are not comparable in any way.

 

[saffronleaf]

I think we had a better team before Nylander signed. Dubas had his reputation intact. Kapanen was on pace for 30 goals and 60 points. Matthews was on pace for career highs. It's all gone down hill since then.

If you cared to look at the underlying numbers, you would see both Kapanen's and Matthews' underlying numbers indicated that their production was not sustainable. Unsustainable shooting percentages and poor possession numbers. Anyone sensible should have seen this regression to the mean coming.

Interestingly, it's the opposite right now with Nylander and Matthews having relatively strong underlying numbers, but weak production.

Things will even out and work themselves out.

 

[socko]

If you cared to look at the underlying numbers, you would see both Kapanen's and Matthews' underlying numbers indicated that their production was not sustainable. Unsustainable shooting percentages and poor possession numbers. Anyone sensible should have seen this regression to the mean coming.

Interestingly, it's the opposite right now with Nylander and Matthews having relatively strong underlying numbers, but weak production.

Things will even out and work themselves out.

Things don't always work out. Sometimes you have to make tough decisions or you'll just continue to fail.

 

[saffronleaf]

Things don't always work out. Sometimes you have to make tough decisions or you'll just continue to fail.

Sure that's true in a general sense. But in this case, when the underlying numbers indicate the opposite of the actual production, you should expect a regression to the mean.

 

[Walshy7]

There is plenty he can do. Like be a hockey player. Compete for pucks and not stop skating towards pucks that he can get to first if that means taking a check. Be willing to take a check to help the team win. And get his body in front of pucks when going out to the point. His skill is undeniable but his fear is as well.

You were among a group of posters who constantly stated that Nylander was better then Marner. He never was better, then you revised it to a better 5on5 player. Again wrong. Now you keep bring up Marner in Nylander threads. Leave the Marner name out of Nylander thread as they are not comparable in any way.

When I said those things they were comparable. I’m sure you know that players develop differently you say you coach at a high level, marner this season has gone beyond what nylander will achieve as long as marner maintains it for years to come. Pretty likely he will.

Using marner and nylander comparison above was not comparing them but comparing posters attitudes towards them, ie: one was a pp specialist because of pp points the other a pp god. The truth is both of those seasons at young ages were great seasons but marner continued his form (scoring wise not never pp wise) while nylander didn’t and is now slumping after a contract sit out

 

[socko]

Sure that's true in a general sense. But in this case, when the underlying numbers indicate the opposite of the actual production, you should expect a regression to the mean.

Nylander's norm was established as a full time player on Matthews wing. He now has serious competition for that spot from Kapanen. So far the only constant at wing this year has been Marner on the Tavares line, all other positions have been rotating frequently.

 

[saffronleaf]

Nylander's norm was established as a full time player on Matthews wing. He now has serious competition for that spot from Kapanen. So far the only constant at wing this year has been Marner on the Tavares line, all other positions have been rotating frequently.

Kapanen and Nylander are very different players, even putting aside the difference in talent level (at least as far as we know from their work so far). Matthews needs a playmaker and another player who can perform controlled entries.

 

[socko]

Kapanen and Nylander are very different players, even putting aside the difference in talent level (at least as far as we know from their work so far). Matthews needs a playmaker and another player who can perform controlled entries.

I don't know that 40 assists on the Matthews line earns you a playmaker status when Marner has that in a half season with Tavares.

 

[LeafingTheWay]

I think you’re missing the point.
If it can’t go on forever then points must come with it. Therefore, at the end of the day you are putting up points. Which is what I said must come with it.

But what happens if they don’t? What do you say?

Those last 2 questions in your post show that you don't get it still. What do you mean if they don't come? Points are literally guaranteed to come unless he gets injured. Whether it be in 1 game or in 10 more games. Marner's slump lasted 29 games last year with 9 points. Kadri's lasted 30 games the year before that. Or this could be a mini slump and be over next game. Which is why I said to be patient. The points are guaranteed to come as the oish% rises to the mean (Again, all oish% go back to the 7-9ish% range. Our team forwards all started off very high, with Marner/Matthews/Tavares/Kapanen having on-ice sh% of 12-13%. Everyone is returning to the norm, which is why Matthews and Kapanen are having a 'mini-slump' and Marner has slowed down from his 150 point pace).

I think we had a better team before Nylander signed. Dubas had his reputation intact. Kapanen was on pace for 30 goals and 60 points. Matthews was on pace for career highs. It's all gone down hill since then.

It's gone down hill because their ridiculous sh% are going down to normal. Kapanen will be amazing in this league but he was shooting at a very high rate, as was Matthews. They were both due to go down.

 

[rumman]

It is true. Without the points nobody cares about your zone entries.

Amen.

 

[rumman]

I think we had a better team before Nylander signed. Dubas had his reputation intact. Kapanen was on pace for 30 goals and 60 points. Matthews was on pace for career highs. It's all gone down hill since then.

coincidence or Occam's Razor?